Ukraine War Update NEWS: Military Aid News
Table of Contents 📖
"The key to USA to Ukraine is Mike Johnson."
Hello Team
🎦 00:00-00:20⏩
Jonathan welcomes viewers to another ATPG update, the second part of the Ukraine War Update for April 3rd, 2024, focusing on military equipment and aid. He jokes about the number of tabs he has open.
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NATO proposes $100 Billion Fund & Leading Ramstein
🎦 00:20-05:39⏩
Jonathan discusses NATO potentially establishing a $100 billion fund for Ukraine over five years, a proposal by NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg. This comes amidst difficulties securing aid from the US Congress due to an impasse. Jonathan explains the meaning of "tabling a motion" in the UK and US, highlighting the difference in their usage. He then delves into the challenges of US aid to Ukraine, referencing the role of Mike Johnson and potential legal challenges. Jonathan believes a Democrat-controlled presidency, Senate and House of Representatives would be the most efficient way to ensure aid delivery to Ukraine. He expresses his concern over the possibility of a Republican trifecta in November, especially with Donald Trump's stance on Ukraine. He mentions Trump's reported comments suggesting no aid for Ukraine, as told to Viktor Orban, and the potential impact this could have. Jonathan highlights Stoltenberg's statement about the urgency of aid and the need for predictable security assistance. This predictability is crucial for Ukraine to plan its military strategies effectively. He provides an example of Ukraine's ammunition shortage, which could have been avoided with predictable aid. Jonathan then discusses Politico's report on allies considering moving the US-led Ukraine Defence Contact Group (UDCG), also known as the Ramstein format, under NATO control to safeguard it from a potential Trump administration. He expresses skepticism about Trump's potential benefit to Ukraine, citing Orban's statement and Trump's previous remarks on forcing negotiations and Ukraine conceding territory.
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Macron: French Troop Deployment Would Not Necessarily Trigger NATO Involvement
🎦 05:39-11:08⏩
Jonathan discusses Emmanuel Macron's statement that France wouldn't necessarily involve NATO or the US if Russian forces attacked French troops in Ukraine. He cites a Wall Street Journal report which suggests France has managed military campaigns in Africa without always seeking help from allies. Jonathan finds this to be a hugely important statement as it signifies France might act bilaterally in Ukraine, outside of NATO's framework. He acknowledges the differing opinions within NATO regarding the involvement of troops from member countries. However, Macron seems clear that France would take action without necessarily invoking NATO support.
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Zakharova: 1,500 French Troops to Ukraine?
🎦 11:08-13:02⏩
Jonathan discusses Russian Foreign Ministry spokesperson Maria Zakharova’s claim that France will deploy 1,500 soldiers to Ukraine as early as April 2024, a claim he finds interesting and potentially multi-faceted. He explores three possibilities:
- The claim is true: France is preparing to deploy troops. Jonathan acknowledges this would be significant, marking a shift in France’s stance.
- Zakharova is lying: The statement aims to spread misinformation and create chaos.
- Russia is goading France: By claiming France will send troops, Russia might be subtly encouraging the action, potentially aiming for controlled escalation leading to a negotiation more favourable to them.
Jonathan acknowledges the uncertainty surrounding the situation and speculates on the potential implications, highlighting how Russia might be trying to force a negotiation from a position of strength.
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Estonia Considers Joining Czech Initiative for Ammunition
🎦 13:02-15:43⏩
Jonathan reports that Estonia is considering joining a Czech-led initiative to purchase artillery shells for Ukraine. The Estonian Foreign Minister has said they have located ammunition worth 2-3 billion euros on the global market. Jonathan believes combining this with Czech, British, and other potential purchases could provide Ukraine with 2 - 2.5 million shells within the year, significantly bolstering their capabilities. He references information from Colby Badwar, which suggests Estonia has identified 2 to 3 billion dollars worth of artillery ammunition, potentially translating to 800,000 to 1.2 million shells. Jonathan acknowledges that funding remains a challenge, especially when sourcing material from outside of Europe. He points out that the European Peace Facility and Ukraine Assistance Fund could be used to finance these procurements, emphasizing the urgency of the situation. Jonathan celebrates the progress made in ammunition procurement, highlighting the positive shift from a few months ago. He notes the ramping up of indigenous production within Ukraine, increased production throughout Europe, and the availability of ammunition on the global market. This, he argues, puts Europe in a stronger position than Russia. While Ukraine faces immediate needs, Jonathan believes the future looks brighter for them, reinforcing his belief that Russia cannot win this war with the continued support of NATO, Europe and the US. He references a recent report by ISW suggesting Russia's best hope for victory lies in disrupting democratic elections in Europe and the US to install governments more sympathetic to Russia. This highlights the importance of information warfare and the political landscape in the context of this conflict. Jonathan takes a brief tea break (naturally!).
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Germany’s Military Aid Commitments to Ukraine
🎦 15:43-18:33⏩
Jonathan transitions to discuss Germany's contributions, addressing perceptions of Germany's commitment to supporting Ukraine. He cites figures from German Editor to Ukraine, stating that if the reported 576 million euros for 180,000 155mm shells from Germany is accurate, their pledges to Ukraine would amount to at least 1 billion euros for March 2024. This follows a pledge exceeding 1.2 billion euros in February 2024. He notes that this 576 million represents 40% of Germany’s share of the Czech initiative. Jonathan emphasizes that despite concerns surrounding Olaf Scholz, Germany is delivering significant support to Ukraine.
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EU surpasses US in Total Aid to Ukraine
🎦 18:33-22:14⏩
Jonathan addresses the claim that European nations aren’t pulling their weight in supporting Ukraine, an argument historically pushed by Trump. He debunks this by citing figures from the Kiel Institute, stating that as of January 15th, the EU and its member states have committed over twice the amount the US has pledged. He highlights the importance of factoring in both bilateral aid from individual EU countries and funding through EU institutions to accurately assess Europe's contribution. According to the data presented, the EU had committed 144 billion euros compared to the US's 67.7 billion euros. The UK's contribution was 40.6 billion euros. Jonathan acknowledges that the passage of the $60 billion aid package in the US would alter these figures, attributing the current disparity to six months of US inaction. He then compares the EU and US populations and explores their respective GDPs.
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Ukraine's Domestic Arms Production & Development
🎦 22:14-24:06⏩
Jonathan shifts focus to Ukraine's domestic arms industry, reporting that they are now producing eight self-propelled Bogdana artillery systems per month. While the total number produced remains undisclosed, this development signals positive growth in Ukraine's domestic weapons production. Jonathan points out that when combined with anticipated deliveries of CAESAR howitzers, German RCH 155s, and other equipment, Ukraine's artillery capabilities will be significantly enhanced. He goes on to report that Ukraine is also developing a long-range drone, the Sokol 300, with a potential range of 3,300 kilometers and a payload capacity of 300 kilograms. Jonathan highlights the strategic significance of this development, pointing out that the drone would be capable of reaching a significant portion of Russia's airbases, including those hosting long-range bombers in Engels. He humorously questions why more of these drones couldn't be produced quickly, emphasizing the need for scale to overwhelm Russian defences and inflict more damage.
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Concerns Regarding the Timeliness of Western Aid
🎦 24:06-24:47⏩
Jonathan discusses concerns regarding the timeliness of Western military aid. He references a Politico report quoting an unnamed Ukrainian military official who criticizes the West's pattern of delivering weapons when they're no longer fully relevant to the current battlefield. The example given is the F-16, which, while welcomed, is considered overdue. Jonathan suggests that these aircraft were needed before Russia started deploying guided glide bombs. He notes that this was discussed in greater detail in a previous video.
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US House Republicans and Ukraine Aid
🎦 24:47-26:10⏩
Jonathan discusses a New York Times article reporting that many House Republicans want to vote on the Ukraine aid package. However, Mike Johnson has so far refused to bring it to the floor, seemingly to appease the far-right faction of the GOP. Jonathan reiterates his point that Mike Johnson is the key figure when it comes to the delivery of aid to Ukraine and highlights the chain of influence that leads back to Trump, and potentially, to Putin. He emphasizes the need to focus on the actions of influential figures such as Marjorie Taylor Greene, a staunch Trump ally who is strongly opposed to aiding Ukraine.
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Blinken: Russia Receives Iranian Ballistic Missiles
🎦 26:10-27:21⏩
Jonathan reports that, according to Colby Badwar, US Secretary of State Antony Blinken has confirmed that Russia has received and used Iranian ballistic missiles against Ukraine. Jonathan highlights the significance of this revelation, especially if confirmed as it represents a concerning escalation by both Russia and Iran, a development he has been warning about since the reports of North Korean missile transfers. He emphasizes the need for a strong response from the international community.
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Iran Supplies Russia with 400 Missiles
🎦 27:21-27:56⏩
Jonathan reports that, according to Reuters, Iran has provided Russia with around 400 missiles, many from the Fateh-110 family. He acknowledges previous Ukrainian denials regarding the delivery of significant numbers of Iranian missiles and their use. However, Blinken's statement seems to confirm their use.
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South Korea to Provide Ukraine with $2.1 Billion in Loans
🎦 27:56-28:17⏩
Jonathan announces that South Korea will provide Ukraine with $2.1 Billion in low-interest loans for reconstruction efforts through their Economic Development and Cooperation Fund (EDCF) over the next 5 years. Jonathan emphasizes the importance of securing assistance from beyond Europe and the US. He highlights the vital role these funds will play in supporting Ukraine's government and the country as a whole.
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Latvia Approves $10.3 Million in Aid to Ukraine
🎦 28:17-28:41⏩
Jonathan reports that the Latvian government approved 5.3 million euros for Ukrainian reconstruction and 4.3 million euros for defence assistance through the European Peace Facility on April 2nd. He praises Latvia for their contribution.
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Russian Attacks Cause $10 Billion in Damage to Kharkiv
🎦 28:41-29:08⏩
Jonathan mentions that recent Russian attacks have inflicted $10 billion worth of damage on Kharkiv alone. He laments the immense financial cost of the war for Ukraine.
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Ukrainian Pilots Training on F-16s
🎦 29:08-29:13⏩
Jonathan reports that Ukrainian pilots are already training to fly F-16s in allied countries.
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Netherlands Allocates €10 Million for Ukraine War Crimes Investigation
🎦 29:13-30:03⏩
Jonathan reports that the Netherlands has allocated 10 million euros to support Ukraine's war crimes investigation and prosecution efforts. This funding, announced by the Dutch Minister of Foreign Affairs at the 'Restoring Justice for Ukraine' conference, demonstrates the commitment to hold Russia accountable for its actions.
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Wrap up
🎦 30:03-30:11⏩
Jonathan concludes the video by acknowledging the sheer volume of information related to the war, promising a separate video for geopolitical analysis. He signs off and thanks his audience.
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