Ukraine War Update: Pt 1 - Overnight & Other News - 2x Su-30SM Aircraft Shot Down
Table of Contents 📖
"Despite these staggering losses, territorial gains remain minimal... you are getting to a stage where I think the Ukrainians are really working hard on replacing humans with drones and making it so that the Russians really can't move."
Hello Team
🎦 00:00.000-00:09.760
Jonathan welcomes viewers to the ATP Geopolitics video, a Ukraine war news update, first part for the 4th of May 2025.
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🪦 DISCLAIMER FOR GENERAL STAFF LOSSES DATA
- These are real people with real lives and real families who love them. Don’t let the numbers sap your humanity.
- These numbers probably aren’t accurate but they’re the best we have and we don’t need them to be accurate to be indicative of patterns of activity.
- All losses are estimates. Losses cannot be counted with accuracy because of the conditions on the ground.
- Both sides would see it to be of their advantage to minimize their own losses maximize the other side’s losses.
- Neither side releases their losses but we have enough transparency from the Ukrainian side to have confidence in they are indicative.
- Personnel losses are hard to count. If a soldier gets injured, heals up, and returns to the front line only to get injured again, is that one loss or two? Also, how to deal with losses from PMC’s or soldiers fighting with RF from occupied territories?
- Equipment losses are hard to count. If an AA complex involves several parts and one part gets disabled, is that a loss, or a fraction of a loss? If a tank gets disabled, repaired, back into the fight, then disabled again, is that one lost tank or two?
- All recorded losses are vulnerable to multiple reporting. We have already seen numerous cases of multiple drones in the air reporting the same loss from different angles as multiple engagements.
- Losses are not always reported on the same day they occurred. It is frequent that drone losses are reported at least 24 hours after other terrestrial equipment losses. Certain losses may not be reported for days or weeks for military intelligence reasons.
Ukrainian General Staff Figures: Russian Losses Update for 03/05/2025
🎦 00:10.480-00:51.300
Jonathan presents the Ukrainian General Staff figures for Russian losses on the previous day, noting an uptick across most categories:
- Personnel: An uptick.
- Tanks: 11 (above daily average).
- APVs (Troop-carrying): 24 (just above daily average).
- Artillery Systems: 52 (well over double the daily average).
- MLRS: 1.
- Anti-Aircraft Warfare Systems: 1.
- Vehicles and Fuel Tanks: 129 (a pretty decent number).
- Aircraft: 2 (to be discussed further).
He reminds viewers of the usual caveats and links to sources in the description.
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Analysis of Front Line Activity and Russian Gains
🎦 00:54.300-01:46.940
Jonathan suggests the high loss figures indicate significant activity:
- He notes it's "a bit hairy" for Ukrainians around Pokrovsk, particularly to its east and near Myrnohrad, where Russians have made decent advances.
- Russians are struggling more directly south of Pokrovsk, though they are pushing back after Ukrainian gains.
- There's a lot of activity in Toretsk, and around the Terny and Torske area.
- This increased activity means Russians are losing troops and materiel but are also making territorial gains, albeit "mere kilometres on a huge front line," which is still movement in the wrong direction for Ukraine.
UK Intelligence Casualty Estimates Align with Ukrainian Data
🎦 01:46.940-02:56.120
Jonathan discusses UK intelligence casualty estimates:
- He notes that for the last couple of times, UK intelligence figures seem to align almost exactly with what the Ukrainian General Staff reports.
- He questions how much intelligence services can diverge from Ukrainian figures, as most data likely originates from Ukrainian sources (open-source intelligence, General Staff reports, possibly some satellite imagery, but this is unlikely to be hugely impactful compared to what Ukrainians already provide).
- He wonders how they would significantly diverge unless they have personnel directly involved in the Ukrainian General Staff's processes.
Analysis of Russian Casualty Rates: 160,000 in First Four Months of 2025
🎦 02:57.000-05:12.540
Jonathan elaborates on casualty figures, citing Euromaidan Press:
- Russia reportedly suffered 160,000 casualties (dead, wounded, deserters, POWs) in the first four months of 2025.
- This averages 40,000 a month, which is at the top end of Russian recruitment numbers, suggesting they are merely replacing losses rather than swelling ranks.
- The key factor is how many wounded personnel are returned to combat within a month.
- Despite staggering losses, Russian territorial gains remain minimal according to Euromaidan Press.
- A graph shows 2025 personnel losses currently above the three previous years for the same period. However, 2024 losses skyrocketed from May onwards. It remains to be seen if 2025 will follow this trend or if numbers will drop below 2024's peak.
Two Russian Su-30SM Aircraft Shot Down: Magura Drones Implicated
🎦 05:13.560-06:58.980
Jonathan discusses the two aircraft claimed shot down:
- He revisits footage of a Magura V5 sea drone firing an R-73 air-to-air missile, taking down an Su-30SM naval fighter-bomber ($50 million).
- There are claims it might have been an upgraded Magura V7 drone, armed with AIM-9 Sidewinder missiles, used near Novorossiysk.
- The Magura V7 is described as an upgraded V5, extended to 8 metres (from 5.5m), potentially with better firepower. Jonathan presumes AIM-9s are superior to R-73s.
- He refers to an article from Naval News on the Magura V7.
Differing Accounts of Su-30SM Downings: Zelensky vs. Budanov
🎦 06:59.980-08:55.020
Jonathan highlights conflicting reports on the two downed Su-30SMs:
- Initially, one aircraft was confirmed shot down via imagery.
- President Zelensky then announced two Russian aircraft destroyed in 24 hours: one by a Magura V5/V7 drone in occupied Crimea, and the second during a strike on military facilities.
- Kyrylo Budanov, head of Ukraine's military intelligence (GUR), offered a slightly different account:
- Confirmed the crew of the first Su-30SM survived and was rescued by a civilian vessel (corroborating Russian "Fighterbomber" Telegram channel). This highlights Ukrainian restraint in not targeting the civilian rescue vessel.
- Stated the crew of the second aircraft did not survive.
- Crucially, Budanov indicated both Su-30s were downed by Magura drones near Novorossiysk, not one at a military facility as Zelensky suggested.
- This represents a significant success for Ukrainian sea drones.
Fate of Drones and Significance of Aircraft Losses
🎦 08:55.180-09:32.988
Jonathan speculates on the Magura drones involved:
- He is unsure what happened to the sea drones after the attack (possibly three were involved).
- He presumes they might have been destroyed but acknowledges their potential to return to base (e.g., Odesa area).
- He reiterates the positive news of two aircraft being downed, as reflected in the General Staff figures.
GUR Strikes P-18 Radar Command Post and ZU-23-2 in Occupied Crimea
🎦 09:33.748-11:14.208
Jonathan reports on other GUR activities:
- GUR units struck a P-18 radar command post, the radar itself, its power generator, and a ZU-23-2 anti-aircraft gun (likely protecting the site) in occupied Crimea.
- He notes the P-18 radar is a "decent bit of kit" and high-value.
- He attempts to find the cost, with one source suggesting $3.6 million, but acknowledges it depends on upgrades.
- This success highlights the effectiveness of UAVs launched from USVs (sea drones) near the Crimean coast, allowing strikes 15-20 km inland.
Birds of Madyar Destroy Russian T-90M and T-62M Tanks
🎦 11:14.208-11:46.428
Jonathan shares news of tank destructions:
- The "Birds of Madyar" (Robert Madyar's drone unit) destroyed a Russian T-90M (Russia's best tank) and T-62M tanks along with troops.
- He notes he hasn't seen many T-90Ms taken out recently and wonders how many Russia has left.
Madyar: Unmanned Technologies Creating 15-20km Kill Zone in Both Directions
🎦 11:48.408-12:26.728
Jonathan quotes Madyar on the evolving battlefield:
- Madyar states that unmanned technologies dominate, and this summer, the "kill zone" will stretch for 15 to 20 kilometres.
- Crucially, this is in both directions from the contact line, creating a 30 to 40-kilometre corridor where human movement and existence will be extremely difficult.
- This aligns with Russian anecdotes of soldiers only emerging from dugouts at night due to fear.
Ukrainian Fibre-Optic Drones: Evading EW and Targeting Dugouts
🎦 12:26.728-13:14.928
Jonathan describes the effectiveness of advanced Ukrainian drones:
- He saw footage of a Ukrainian fibre-optic drone navigating a forest, evading netting and potential tripwires.
- The drone reached a dugout, went around a corner, down through the door, and exploded, possibly hitting someone.
- This demonstrates:
- Highly skilled pilots.
- Fibre-optic drones' resistance to electronic warfare (EW).
- The extreme danger for soldiers, even in fortified positions like forest dugouts.
Impact of Drones: Replacing Humans and Hindering Russian Logistics
🎦 13:14.928-13:47.968
Jonathan analyses the broader impact of drone warfare:
- Ukrainians are working hard to replace humans with drones.
- The aim is to immobilise Russian forces, make logistics increasingly difficult, and challenge their ability to reach the front line, let alone make gains.
- Despite this, he acknowledges Russians are still making gains in some areas, but questions the cost.
Brave1 Initiative: Gamifying Drone Operations with Points System for Equipment
🎦 13:50.688-16:21.368
Jonathan discusses the Ukrainian "Brave1" initiative and its points system for drone units, referencing his recent live stream with James from "Wine Ukraine":
- Madyar's "Birds of Madyar" unit is number one in this points system.
- Successful units earn more points, which they use to procure more equipment, creating a virtuous cycle by rewarding the best performers.
- The points system can be adjusted to strategically prioritise targets. For example, the points for killing personnel were increased from two to six, reportedly tripling personnel deaths as drone crews focused on individual soldiers.
- Jonathan describes it as "gamifying the front line," which, despite potential ethical concerns, is functionally effective in incentivising Ukrainian troops.
- Units use an "eBay/Amazon-type website" to procure equipment with their accrued points (e.g., 20 points for a damaged tank, 40 for destroyed; 43 points for a Vampire drone; 60 points for a rocket system like a BM-21 Grad).
Overnight Russian Drone Attack: 165 Shaheds Target Ukrainian Cities
🎦 16:24.008-17:03.608
Jonathan reports on a large-scale Russian drone attack:
- 165 drones, mostly Shaheds, were sent into Ukrainian airspace – a significant number, though not the peak of 200 seen previously.
- Interception rates:
- 69 taken out by conventional means.
- 80 suppressed by electronic warfare.
- Total 149 dealt with, leaving 16 drones (around 10%) getting through.
- This 10% penetration rate is slightly better than some recent days (e.g., 30%) but not the ideal 0-5%.
- Jonathan describes it as a "pretty horrific night for Ukraine."
Zelensky Condemns Russian Cynicism and Details Weekly Attack Statistics
🎦 17:04.228-18:04.008
President Zelensky's reaction to the drone attacks:
- Zelensky stated Russia "begs for silence on May the 9th" (Victory Day) while bombing Ukraine daily, calling it "peak cynicism."
- Last night's 165 drones (mostly Shaheds) hit Kyiv, Kharkiv, Mykolaiv, and the Cherkasy region.
- Homes and a dormitory burned; children were among the injured.
- Weekly attack figures for Ukraine: Over 1,180 drones, 1,360 bombs, and 10 missiles.
- Jonathan notes Zelensky was "justifiably angry."
Damage in Kyiv: Residential Buildings, Dreamtown Mall, and Infrastructure Hit
🎦 18:04.128-20:22.917
Jonathan details the damage in Kyiv, referencing reports from Tim White and Mayor Klitschko:
- Explosions heard across Kyiv.
- Fire in the courtyard of an apartment block in one district (transcript says "Nevsky", likely a mistranscription for a Kyiv district like Sviatoshynskyi or Desnianskyi); debris caused damage in the Obolonskyi area.
- Several floors of an apartment building on fire.
- In the Sviatoshynskyi district (transcript says "Svobodnitsky"), three residential buildings hit by fire from falling debris.
- Even successfully intercepted drones cause damage when they fall.
- In Obolonskyi, several cars were on fire, and the popular Dreamtown shopping centre suffered damage.
- Tim White's round-up (7 hours prior to Jonathan's recording): seven seeking medical attention in Kyiv, including two children.
- Damage to commercial centres like Dreamtown affects commercial income, tax revenue, and the overall economy, in addition to the psychological toll.
Civilian Impact and Testimonies from Kyiv Attacks
🎦 20:23.536-22:31.316
Jonathan highlights the human cost and Russian tactics:
- Russian forces struck residential areas in Kyiv and Cherkasy. In Kyiv, 11 people were injured, including two children.
- He notes that even if damage is from air defences downing drones over civilian areas, sending 165 drones over major cities makes such outcomes inevitable and is, at best, "deeply irresponsible and immoral" by Russia.
- Quotes from affected civilians:
- One woman: "I can't even call them Russian bastards because that's not enough for them."
- Another woman: "They're terrorists and that's an understatement." Describes windows flying out, cars burning, and people terrified.
- In Kyiv's Obolonskyi district, over 20 cars and two dozen buildings were damaged, including two kindergartens, a shopping mall, and a supermarket.
- Jonathan describes Russia's actions as aiming for "outright destruction and death" under the guise of "liberation."
Ukrainian Drone Strikes Target Belgorod and Murmansk (Olenya Air Base)
🎦 22:32.237-24:05.336
Jonathan reports on Ukrainian retaliatory strikes:
- Russian air defence reportedly shot down two Ukrainian drones over Belgorod and Murmansk region around 9:15 pm the previous night.
- Russians on social media ("Tintinette" as Jonathan calls it) complained about Ukrainian drones reaching Murmansk.
- Murmansk hosts the Olenya Air Base (near the Finnish border), home to Russian strategic bombers, approximately 2,500 km from Kyiv.
- Earlier, three more drones were reportedly downed over Murmansk.
- Jonathan praises the "incredible feats of drone flying."
Fire at Strela Transformer Plant in Bryansk, Russia
🎦 24:05.336-25:14.637
Further Ukrainian strikes into Russia:
- A fire at the Strela transformer plant in Bryansk-Suzemka was confirmed by local residents and the regional governor.
- Russian Telegram channels reported the fire at the Strela plant, which produces radar equipment, transformers, and other components, and works with Rostec (Russian state defence concern) fulfilling orders for the military-industrial complex.
- Images show significant destruction and multiple fires.
- Jonathan views this as good news, contrasting it with Russia's targeting of civilian areas.
Ukrainian Psyops: Officials Hint at Strikes on Moscow for Victory Day Parade
🎦 25:14.637-27:40.977
Jonathan discusses psychological operations surrounding Russia's upcoming May 9th Victory Day parade:
- Many are "sweating it," including Russian and foreign dignitaries.
- President Zelensky had previously stated Ukraine couldn't promise safety at the parade.
- Jonathan's theory: threaten a strike on the parade to force Russia to pull air defences from other areas, then strike those less defended areas, or simply cause maximum panic.
- Ukrainian officials seem to be employing this tactic:
- Andriy Yermak (Head of Ukraine's Presidential Office) reposted an image of the Kremlin in flames with the caption, "We brought this day as close as we could," adding, "Beautifully drawn."
- People's Deputy Mariana Bezugla also published a picture of the Kremlin.
- Jonathan believes an actual strike on the Kremlin is unlikely, but the psyops aim to put Russians in "panic mode" and make the parade a burden rather than a celebration.
Putin's Admission: Russia Unprepared for Special Military Operation
🎦 27:40.977-29:00.985
Jonathan analyses recent statements by Vladimir Putin:
- Putin claimed Russia was "forced to support Crimea" (referring to 2014) and called it the "right decision."
- He asserted that despite sanctions, Russia made strong progress.
- Crucially, Putin admitted Russia "wasn't prepared" for the special military operation.
- Jonathan views this as an interesting admission, aligning with his own analysis that Russia initially intended a swift operation to depose Zelensky's government in three days, using Rosgvardia for clean-up, not a full-scale war.
- When this failed due to unexpected Ukrainian resistance, Russia had to transition to a war footing for which it was unprepared, allowing Ukraine to make significant early gains.
Putin on War Aims and Nuclear Weapons: Sufficient Forces for 'Logical Conclusion'
🎦 29:00.985-30:15.705
Jonathan quotes Putin further:
- Putin: "They wanted to provoke us, to make us slip. There was no need to use nuclear weapons, and I hope there won't be. We have enough forces to bring what we started in 2022 to a logical conclusion with the result Russia needs."
- Jonathan interprets this as Putin broadly suggesting nuclear weapons are unlikely to be needed and that Russia has enough troops for its desired outcome.
- However, the statement is vague about Russia's actual intentions and what minimum outcome Putin would accept while maintaining a perception of strength.
International Dignitaries Attending Moscow's Victory Day Parade: Xi Jinping, Vučić, Fico
🎦 30:15.705-30:41.645
Jonathan updates on expected attendance at the May 9th parade in Moscow:
- Xi Jinping (China) will visit Moscow from May 7th to 9th and attend the parade, according to Russian media.
- Serbian President Aleksandar Vučić, despite recent hospitalisation and advice to rest, has apparently not cancelled plans to attend. (Previously, it was claimed he was too ill).
- Slovak Prime Minister Robert Fico has also confirmed his attendance (a reversal from earlier claims of health issues).
Robert Fico Criticises Zelensky's Statement on Victory Day Safety as a Threat
🎦 30:48.585-31:24.805
Jonathan notes tensions involving Robert Fico:
- Fico will attend the May 9th parade, despite previous health rumours.
- Fico called Zelensky's statement (that Ukraine cannot ensure politicians' safety at Moscow celebrations) a "threat."
- Jonathan observes ongoing rhetorical clashes between Hungary and Ukraine, and now also between Slovakia (Fico) and Ukraine.
Russian Children's Victory Day Parade: Indoctrination Concerns
🎦 31:25.505-32:14.225
Jonathan highlights a disturbing aspect of Russian Victory Day preparations:
- Russia held a "Children's Victory Day parade."
- He states that kids are being systematically indoctrinated with "special military operation propaganda."
- He shows a short clip, expressing his distaste ("sickening," "horrible").
Pro-Russian 'Immortal Regiment' March Held in Washington D.C.
🎦 32:19.425-34:04.425
Jonathan discusses a pro-Russian event in the US:
- The "Immortal Regiment March" took place in Washington D.C., for the first time in six years.
- Russian media called it a "march through the American capital."
- Jonathan finds it "really distasteful" that it was allowed.
- One central theme was the "proxy conflict in Ukraine," which participants do not view as a Russia-Ukraine war.
- Anton Gerashchenko is quoted: "Putin is the president and leader of these people."
- Jonathan observes participants flying Soviet flags, indicating communist sympathies, alongside American flags, calling it a "complete ideological mess."
- He notes the existence of MAGA Americans siding with Russia and information ecosystems that allow such sentiment.
North Korea Rearming and Supplying Russia with Older Military Equipment
🎦 34:04.425-34:47.325
Jonathan reports on North Korea's military activities:
- Kim Jong-un stated North Korea is undergoing mass rearmament by producing new equipment.
- The claim is that some older equipment was sold to Russia.
- Evidence includes North Korean Koksan 1989 self-propelled guns and MLRS appearing on the front line, particularly in Kursk Oblast but also elsewhere.
- Jonathan finds it worrying that North Korea can supply Russia with kit with "little comeback from the West."
US-Ukraine Rare Earth Minerals Deal Linked to Military Sales
🎦 34:48.125-36:40.425
Jonathan discusses a CNN report on a US-Ukraine deal:
- A "Rare Earth deals" will allow Ukraine to buy weapons from the US, with foreign military sales now potentially allowed.
- He suggests there might have been an element of "blackmail" from the US, linking sales to a rare earth minerals deal.
- The mechanism appears to be: if the US provides Ukraine with new military aid, the US partner's capital contribution to a fund (for the minerals deal) will be considered increased by the estimated cost of that aid.
- Jonathan interprets this to mean that if, for example, $15 billion of "aid" is provided, it's essentially a sale, as this $15 billion becomes the US investment in the minerals deal, which Ukraine would then have to match with its own $15 billion investment. Thus, Ukraine is effectively paying for the aid.
- He seeks clarity on whether Ukraine only matches the US "aid" value or if there's further compensation involved.
Wrap up
🎦 36:41.505-37:34.105
Jonathan concludes the video:
- Thanks viewers for watching and their support.
- Reminds viewers about the "Car for Ukraine campaign."
- Thanks anonymous donors who contributed yesterday.
- Signs off with "Take care. Speak soon. Toodlepips."