Ukraine War Update NEWS: Pt 1 - Overnight & Other News
Table of Contents 📖
"Russia spends 500 million dollars to a billion dollars a day on the war against Ukraine and it doesn't give a damn about its own citizens."
Hello Team
🎦 00:00-01:21⏩
Jonathan kicks off the video with a warm "Hello Team!" He previews upcoming content, mentioning a live stream at 7:30 pm UK time with Erland and Daniela from Tochny to discuss drones and Erland's recent trip to Ukraine. He also hints at a planned rant in his next geopolitics video, expressing concerns about global affairs and the state of democracy, particularly concerning Ukraine, Russia, the EU, the US, and beyond.
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🪦 DISCLAIMER FOR GENERAL STAFF LOSSES DATA
- These are real people with real lives and real families who love them. Don’t let the numbers sap your humanity.
- These numbers probably aren’t accurate but they’re the best we have and we don’t need them to be accurate to be indicative of patterns of activity.
- All losses are estimates. Losses cannot be counted with accuracy because of the conditions on the ground.
- Both sides would see it to be of their advantage to minimize their own losses maximize the other side’s losses.
- Neither side releases their losses but we have enough transparency from the Ukrainian side to have confidence in they are indicative.
- Personnel losses are hard to count. If a soldier gets injured, heals up, and returns to the front line only to get injured again, is that one loss or two? Also, how to deal with losses from PMC’s or soldiers fighting with RF from occupied territories?
- Equipment losses are hard to count. If an AA complex involves several parts and one part gets disabled, is that a loss, or a fraction of a loss? If a tank gets disabled, repaired, back into the fight, then disabled again, is that one lost tank or two?
- All recorded losses are vulnerable to multiple reporting. We have already seen numerous cases of multiple drones in the air reporting the same loss from different angles as multiple engagements.
- Losses are not always reported on the same day they occurred. It is frequent that drone losses are reported at least 24 hours after other terrestrial equipment losses. Certain losses may not be reported for days or weeks for military intelligence reasons.
Russian Losses
🎦 01:21-02:43⏩
Jonathan delves into the Russian losses based on the Ukrainian General Staff figures. He points out the substantial loss of 1,280 personnel, placing it at the upper end of the recent range. This is noteworthy, he says, compared to earlier in the war, where 1,000 losses were considered a significant benchmark. He further breaks down the losses, stating eight tanks and 16 armoured personnel vehicles lost is typical. However, the loss of 56 artillery systems stands out as three times the average. Additionally, he highlights the unusual loss of 74 vehicles and fuel tanks, acknowledging that many are likely motorcycles, buggies, and SUVs rather than actual fuel tankers, which are less frequently targeted.
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Oryx Loss Analysis
🎦 02:43-07:55⏩
Jonathan shifts focus to Andrew Perpetua's Oryx loss data, noting significant Russian losses, particularly in the civilian category. He observes a two-to-one ratio in destroyed equipment, with Russia losing 62 compared to Ukraine's 33. He highlights the increasing use and destruction of motorcycles, evidenced by 25 lost by Russia and 12 by Ukraine, reflecting a similar two-to-one ratio. Jonathan discusses the potential loss of two Su-27s, referencing footage he analysed in a previous breaking news update. While some argue the planes were decoys or obsolete, parked for years and visible on Google Earth, others, including Andrew Perpetua, believe at least one was destroyed and one damaged, with the possibility of more. He emphasises that losing these fighter jets would be a substantial blow to Ukraine, considering the cost of replacement for both older, high-capability equipment and recently supplied Western equipment. He acknowledges that any loss is significant for Ukraine, given their limited resources. Jonathan further analyses the Oryx data, highlighting the loss of two multiple launch rocket systems, a BMP-2, a Bradley, and two Marders, all damaged. He categorises these Western-supplied assets as high-value targets due to their recent delivery and superior capabilities compared to their Russian counterparts. He points out the destruction of a boat, communication equipment, civilian vehicles, and Bogdan trucks. Jonathan reiterates the potential severity of losing the Su-27s, especially if they were operational. He mentions a damaged Russian Tor-M2 air defence system, an electronic warfare engineering vehicle, a sunken boat, D-30 howitzers, a Mishka S, and a T-90M tank damaged by an FPV drone. He observes that Russia is experiencing a significantly higher rate of equipment destruction compared to Ukraine.
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Zelensky's Claims on Personnel Losses
🎦 07:55-09:26⏩
Jonathan brings up Zelensky's claim of a one-to-six ratio for Ukrainian to Russian military personnel losses, as stated in a recent interview. While acknowledging that this ratio is ideal for Ukraine, given Russia's larger population, Jonathan advises caution, reminding viewers that Zelensky might be inclined to either downplay or exaggerate the situation to secure more aid or maintain morale. Jonathan maintains a balanced perspective, suggesting a degree of scepticism is warranted when interpreting these figures.
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Russian Female Combatants
🎦 09:26-10:26⏩
Jonathan discusses a video, which he chooses not to show due to its graphic content. He describes the footage, stating it depicts a Russian woman on the front lines being hit by a drone. While another woman attempts to help, they are both targeted and killed. This, along with other reports, suggests Russia is recruiting female convicts due to mounting losses and difficulties in mobilisation. This aligns with trends like the high casualty rates, with estimates of 30,000 to 35,000 Russian personnel lost last month. Jonathan sees this as a sign of desperation and a need to widen the recruitment pool.
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Motorcycle Convoy Destruction
🎦 10:26-12:01⏩
Jonathan analyses footage showing the aftermath of a Ukrainian attack on a Russian motorcycle convoy, noting a significant number of casualties, with bodies marked by red squares in the video. Quoting Ukrainian journalist Yuri Butasov, Jonathan highlights the apparent disregard for human life as Russia deploys troops, particularly on motorcycles, into what Butasov describes as "the Ukrainian combine of death without any chance of survival." Jonathan questions the tactical use of motorcycles, which offer little protection compared to tanks, emphasising the vulnerability of Russian forces.
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Dwindling Russian Tank Reserves
🎦 12:01-14:23⏩
Jonathan shifts focus to Russia's dwindling tank reserves. Analysis of satellite imagery reveals a significant reduction in T-80B and BV tanks at long-term storage bases. Since the war began, 900 tanks have been removed from storage, leaving only 300, likely requiring extensive repairs. This dwindling stockpile further highlights the depletion of readily available, combat-ready equipment. Jonathan contrasts this with Russia's claims of producing 1,500 tanks annually, suggesting the actual output of new tanks is likely closer to 20 per month. He questions the quality and combat readiness of the remaining tanks, pointing out the lengthy process and resource-intensive nature of restoration. Jonathan concludes that regardless of any potential hidden reserves, the overall trend points to a substantial decrease in Russia's operational tank capacity.
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Drone Strike on Russian Locomotive
🎦 14:23-16:15⏩
Jonathan presents drone footage of a Ukrainian strike on a Russian locomotive 30 kilometers from the front lines. While the drone narrowly misses the front of the train, potentially minimizing damage, the incident highlights the Ukrainians' increasing ability to target Russian logistics. The fact that the targeted locomotive was part of a fuel train further underscores the strategic implications of these drone strikes. Jonathan points to the use of heavier munitions by Ukrainian drones, including a reported instance of a drone carrying a 10-kilogram TM-62 mine. He discusses the tactic of using drones to lay mines on cleared roads, disrupting Russian movements. He concludes that the incident underscores the growing threat posed by FPV drones to Russian logistics, especially considering their evolving payload capabilities.
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Overnight Missile and Drone Strikes
🎦 16:15-19:41⏩
Jonathan discusses the relatively quiet night regarding large-scale missile and drone strikes across the border, shifting his attention to specific incidents from both the previous day and the day of the video. He starts with a large fire in the Kursk region of Russia, highlighting a plume of smoke, potentially originating from a military base. He cites local media reports indicating the fire might be at the 3754 Aviation Technical Base, known to house aviation equipment. He also mentions a strike in Mekivka and explosions in Nova Kakhovka, a Russian-occupied area on the left bank of the Kherson region. Jonathan provides updates on the Crimean Bridge closure due to missile strikes, despite Russian claims of successful air defence. He notes the presence of black smoke, potentially oil, in the aftermath. He cites a Telegram channel suggesting a military base near Sevastopol was hit. Despite Russian attempts to downplay the effectiveness of the strikes, Jonathan believes they indicate successful Ukrainian targeting of strategic assets in Crimea. Conversely, he condemns the heavy shelling of Kherson city by Russian multiple launch rocket systems. He characterises these attacks as acts of terrorism and war crimes, highlighting the absence of military targets and the deliberate targeting of civilians. He expresses outrage over the injuries inflicted, including those sustained by an 80-year-old man.
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Mirgorod Air Base Strike and US Policy
🎦 19:41-28:46⏩
Jonathan expresses frustration with the US policy prohibiting Ukraine from striking Russian airfields while Russia continues to target Ukrainian infrastructure. He questions the logic behind this restriction, arguing that it forces Ukraine to fight with "one hand tied behind their back." Jonathan analyses the recent strike on Mirgorod air base in Poltava, criticising the apparent lack of preparedness and questioning why the jets were left vulnerable. He acknowledges the differing opinions on the extent of the damage, with some suggesting the targeted planes were decoys or obsolete. He emphasizes the importance of long-range reconnaissance drones used by Russia to identify and target these valuable assets. He illustrates this point by describing how these drones, despite their distance and low-resolution imagery, can effectively pinpoint the location of planes on specific aprons within the airbase using Google Earth for reference. Jonathan analyses footage of the Mirgorod air base attack, noting the initial unitary warhead strike, followed by a cluster munition attack after a reconnaissance drone loitered, correcting the aim. He highlights the differing accounts of damage, with some sources suggesting the destruction of multiple Su-27s, while others, like Andrew Perpetua, are more conservative in their estimates. He cites analysis from Military Watch, which breaks down the attack sequence and assesses the damage inflicted on specific aircraft based on their positions and the observed damage. While the exact extent of the losses remains unclear, Jonathan emphasizes the strategic implications of targeting airbases and the debate surrounding the effectiveness of the Ukrainian response. He also criticizes the vulnerability of these high-value targets to drone reconnaissance, questioning the lack of adequate protection.
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Russian Air Defence Placement in Sevastopol
🎦 28:46-29:35⏩
Jonathan discusses the placement of a Russian Tor-M2MK air defence system in Sevastopol, Crimea, as revealed by the guerrilla movement Atesh. He criticizes the decision to position the system near a beach, potentially endangering civilians. This placement, Jonathan suggests, reflects a disregard for civilian safety as debris from potential Ukrainian strikes could harm those on the beaches.
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Tourism in Crimea
🎦 29:35-30:39⏩
Jonathan notes the irony of Russians still flocking to Crimea for holidays despite ongoing risks. He cites reports of long queues and increased tourist numbers compared to the previous year, even after recent beach deaths. He speculates on the reasons, suggesting affordability and a lack of alternative destinations due to the conflict. He mentions the rundown state of some resorts and the presence of fortifications, impacting the holiday experience.
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Detained FSB Agents in Odesa
🎦 30:39-31:48⏩
Jonathan reports on the detention of an FSB agent group in Odesa. The group, which included two military officers, was reportedly scouting air defence system locations, photographing them, and marking their geolocations on Google Maps. They had also installed hidden cameras in the Odesa seaport. Jonathan expresses disappointment over the betrayal, particularly from the military officers involved. He acknowledges that while Russian sympathizers in Ukraine are expected, the involvement of military personnel is "doubly painful."
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Ukrainian Strategic Successes
🎦 31:48-33:18⏩
Jonathan cites a Wall Street Journal report acknowledging incremental battlefield gains by Russia, while also highlighting Ukraine's strategic strikes and resilience. He suggests Ukraine effectively slowed down the Russian offensive, forcing them into a war of attrition. He believes Ukraine has been more successful in striking military targets, attributing this to their strategic approach. However, he emphasizes the significant challenge posed by the damaged energy infrastructure, crucial for weapon production and economic stability.
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Belgorod Power Cut and Russian Infrastructure
🎦 33:18-34:11⏩
Jonathan discusses the power cut in Belgorod, caused by a substation hit, which led to shortages in neighbouring Russian regions. He sees this as Russia experiencing the consequences of its own tactics and facing the vulnerability of its infrastructure.
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Kovka Village Bridge and Russian Priorities
🎦 34:11-34:41⏩
Jonathan highlights the stark contrast between Russia's military spending and its neglect of its citizens' well-being. He presents a photo of a makeshift bridge constructed by residents of Kovka village in the Kurgan region after the original bridge was destroyed by floods. He criticizes the Russian government for prioritizing its war efforts over its own people's basic needs.
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Wrap up
🎦 34:41-35:07⏩
In a more light-hearted conclusion, Jonathan shares a personal anecdote about his multiple sclerosis and how it affects his gait, often leading people to assume he's drunk. He jokes about getting a T-shirt clarifying his condition. He signs off with his usual request for viewers to like, subscribe, and share the video.
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