Ukraine War Update NEWS: Military Aid
Table of Contents 📖
"Lithuania is ready to send soldiers to Ukraine as part of a training mission... wow... that is huge... if Lithuania become the first nation then that might open the floodgates to allowing... moves."
Hello Team
🎦 00:00-00:34⏩
Jonathan welcomes viewers to another ATP Geopolitics video. He apologises for his glasses reacting to the light, having been outside. He explains that this is the second part of the Ukraine War update for the 8th of May, focusing on military aid to Ukraine.
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Romania considers providing Patriot battery to Ukraine
🎦 00:34-02:37⏩
Romania's president is open to discussing providing Ukraine with one of their four Patriot missile batteries. Germany is spearheading a coalition to potentially purchase a Patriot battery for Ukraine, having already raised €350 million with Canada also contributing an unknown amount. Jonathan notes that it is unlikely Romania will donate a battery outright, given past aid practices. He also highlights Germany's significant role in facilitating aid to Ukraine through various mechanisms, even if such efforts don't always make it onto compiled aid lists. For example, Germany stationed Patriot batteries and other equipment in Slovakia to compensate for the S-300s Slovakia provided to Ukraine.
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Lithuania to deploy troops to Ukraine for training mission
🎦 02:37-03:43⏩
Lithuania's Prime Minister has secured parliamentary approval to send troops to Ukraine as part of a training mission. Jonathan suggests this is significant as it could pave the way for other nations to do the same, citing Macron's earlier comments about not opposing such a move. He speculates that smaller nations like Lithuania taking the lead could make it more palatable for larger nations like France and the UK to follow suit without appearing overly escalatory.
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Lithuania's stance on Ukrainian Military Service Evaders
🎦 03:43-05:17⏩
Lithuania may not grant permanent residency to Ukrainians evading military service, according to the Financial Times, quoting the Prime Minister. However, they won't actively deport individuals, acknowledging the EU guarantee of protection for Ukrainian refugees until March 2025. Jonathan notes the ongoing moral and political debate surrounding this issue and directs viewers to a previous video he made on the topic of refugee conscientious objectors and draft evaders.
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Denmark and Latvia provide aid to Ukraine
🎦 05:17-06:13⏩
- Denmark announces a €33.5 million humanitarian aid package for Ukraine, encompassing food, medicine, water, and housing funds for Ukrainians in the most affected areas. Jonathan praises Denmark's consistent support for Ukraine.
- Latvia provides Ukraine with approximately €100,000 worth of communication equipment to support tactical communication at the brigade level.
Poland funds Starlink subscriptions for Ukraine; Italy's stance on weapons use
🎦 06:13-08:31⏩
- Poland will continue funding subscriptions for over 20,000 Starlink terminals provided to Ukraine, ensuring continued communication and internet access. Jonathan recounts the history of Starlink's involvement in the conflict, from Elon Musk's initial support to his subsequent geofencing of equipment, which led to the US Department of Defense stepping in to secure control and prevent further restrictions. He expresses concern over Musk's actions, questioning why geofencing was applied to Ukrainian use in Crimea but not to Russian use in the Donbas.
- Italy reaffirms its stance of only supplying weapons to Ukraine for use within its own borders, declining to allow their weapons to be used in Russian territory.
Germany's Quantum Systems opens drone factory in Ukraine
🎦 08:31-10:25⏩
German drone manufacturer Quantum Systems, already a significant drone supplier to Ukraine, opens a drone factory and development hub in the country – its second facility there. The factory is expected to produce 1,000 drones annually. Jonathan sees this as a strong vote of confidence in Ukraine's future, likening it to betting odds in political elections, where investment often reflects confidence in a particular outcome. He interprets Quantum Systems' investment as a sign that they believe in Ukraine's long-term security and stability, at least in its western regions, and see the country as central to the future of drone technology.
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Ukraine to establish separate drone forces
🎦 10:25-11:45⏩
- Quantum Systems' new facility in Ukraine will accelerate the supply of reconnaissance drones to the Ukrainian armed forces. Jonathan clarifies that these are purely for reconnaissance purposes, not combat drones. He believes Quantum Systems is setting a positive example that other manufacturers and countries should emulate.
- Ukraine's Cabinet of Ministers has approved Zelenskyy's decree to create a separate branch of the armed forces dedicated to unmanned systems. Jonathan views this as a sensible decision, reflecting the growing importance of drones in modern warfare. This new branch will complement the drone units already embedded within other units, similar to how airborne troops and marines operate.
Update on French SCALP-EG Missile Supplies
🎦 11:45-13:28⏩
Jonathan provides an update on the French SCALP-EG missiles (the French equivalent of the Storm Shadow cruise missile), recalling a previous tweet thread discussing how France is refurbishing older missiles to send to Ukraine. He notes that recent information suggests potential plans for direct transfers of newer SCALP missiles, though details are scarce and should be treated cautiously. It remains unclear if new SCALP production is underway. The French Ministry of Armed Forces recently requested 40 SCALP-EG missiles from MBDA France, likely to undergo the same refurbishment process. Jonathan reiterates his desire for greater transparency regarding the number of Storm Shadow missiles provided by the UK, France, and Italy, whether new production is planned, and the overall impact these weapons will have on Ukraine's deep strike capabilities.
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Updates on VELOS 330 Drone and Russian Drone Reverse-Engineering
🎦 13:28-15:17⏩
- Jonathan provides an update on the French-made VELOS 330 drone, previously highlighted for its speed and maneuverability. The drone, capable of speeds up to 400 km/h, is equipped with a shaped charge to counter the active defenses of armoured vehicles and a GPS-independent navigation system resistant to jamming. With a range of 80 km and a three-hour endurance, the VELOS 330 can be reused for reconnaissance missions using its optronic ball, which can detect vehicles up to 15 km away during the day and 3 km at night. Jonathan speculates that Ukraine will likely serve as a testing ground for this drone.
- Russia is reportedly reverse-engineering the Australian Corvo drone, a cardboard drone previously supplied to Ukraine in significant numbers. This move aims to reduce the cost of each drone frame to under 1,000 rubles, potentially posing a challenge if successful.
North Korean KN-23 Missiles Prove Unreliable
🎦 15:17-16:17⏩
Approximately half of the KN-23 missiles supplied to Russia by North Korea have malfunctioned, deviating from their trajectory and exploding mid-air, according to the Ukrainian prosecutor general's office. North Korea reportedly supplied around 50 of these ballistic missiles, a move that violates UN sanctions. Jonathan questions whether the reported malfunctions could be disinformation but acknowledges their potential impact on Russia's military capabilities if true, especially given the effort invested in acquiring these weapons.
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Wrap up
🎦 16:17-17:11⏩
Jonathan thanks viewers and encourages them to like, subscribe, and share the video. He briefly shares his experience of watching the film "Civil War," directed by Alex Garland, and ponders its themes, inviting viewers to share their interpretations. He specifically reflects on the film's messages about democracy, the role of the press, and the potential loss of humanity through detached observation.
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