Ukraine War Update NEWS: Military Aid News

"They are seriously running out of equipment now... transporting museum exhibits to the front... D-20s, D-30s, M46 Howitzers... these are old bits of kit!"

Hello Team

🎦 00:00-00:13⏩

Jonathan welcomes everyone to the channel for this military aid update, the second part of his Ukraine War Update for 21st August 2024.

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Upcoming Ramstein Meeting (24th) and Delays with Military Aid Deliveries

🎦 00:13-02:32⏩

Jonathan begins by sharing news that the US has announced there will be a 24th Ramstein meeting of the Ukraine Defence Contact Group on 6th September 2024. This meeting, convened by US Defence Secretary Lloyd Austin at Ramstein Airbase, will focus on air defence for Ukraine. Jonathan highlights concerns that Ukraine has not yet received all the air defence systems pledged at the previous meeting and the NATO summit, emphasising the urgency as these systems are desperately needed. Jonathan then points out Zelensky's calls for nations to expedite military aid packages to Ukraine, given that pledges do not equate to immediate material support. He cites a Bloomberg report stating that air defence pledges from NATO countries haven't been fulfilled, with five systems promised at the latest NATO summit yet to materialise. Jonathan reads a quote from Politico where an unnamed individual states that Ukraine needs faster delivery of supplies from partners and timely logistics for the announced aid packages. This is directed at the US, UK and France. Jonathan reminds viewers of the Labour government's commitment to expedite previous aid packages pledged by the Conservative government and increase support for Ukraine. He admits to being unsure about any specific issues within France's supply chains.

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Borrell's Comments on Lifting Restrictions on Use of Western Weapons

🎦 02:32-03:46⏩

Jonathan discusses comments made by Josep Borrell, the European Commission High Representative for Foreign Affairs. Borrell suggests that lifting the ban on Ukraine using Western weapons for strikes on Russia could contribute to peace efforts. Jonathan notes the seeming contradiction in advocating for increased military action to achieve peace. He explains the rationale behind this view: a quicker end to the war will save more lives. Allowing Ukraine to fight "without one hand tied behind their back" will facilitate this. He expresses his agreement with lifting restrictions to help end the war faster. However, he cautions about the risk of escalating the conflict, highlighting what he calls the "Putin Paradox". The "Putin Paradox" refers to the possibility that the more successful Ukraine becomes in defending itself, the greater the chance of Putin resorting to extreme measures, including the use of nuclear weapons. Despite acknowledging the potential dangers, Jonathan believes that allowing Ukraine to use all means necessary to defend itself is the best course of action.

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Ukraine Ratifies Agreements with France and South Korea

🎦 03:46-04:32⏩

Jonathan reports that the Ukrainian Parliament has ratified agreements with both France and South Korea.

• The agreement with France will provide Ukraine with an additional €200 million in grants to support the rebuilding of vital infrastructure.
• The agreement with South Korea will give Ukraine access to $2.1 billion in loans from the Economic Development Cooperation Fund (EDCF) for projects between 2024 and 2029.

Jonathan sees this as positive news, highlighting the importance of investment in economic recovery.

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Czech Republic to Purchase Ammunition with Frozen Russian Assets

🎦 04:32-05:42⏩

Jonathan reports that the Czech Republic will use frozen Russian assets to purchase ammunition for Ukraine. This information was announced by Jana Černochová, the Czech Defence Minister. He then shifts focus to the Czech-supplied Excalibur Army T-72EA main battle tanks (MBTs), which are now in active service with the Ukrainian armed forces. He describes the T-72EAs as refurbished and upgraded T-72A tanks, noting their age but acknowledging their effectiveness in Ukrainian service. Jonathan displays an image of a T-72EA, remarking on its cleanliness. He believes that the Ukrainians will greatly benefit from upgraded fire control systems and imaging capabilities for these tanks. Jonathan commends Excalibur Army, a Czech defence company, for their support of Ukraine.

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Ben Wallace Calls for Ukraine to Use All Weapons Without Restrictions

🎦 05:42-06:25⏩

Jonathan discusses former UK Defence Secretary Ben Wallace's call for Western leaders to allow Ukraine to strike back without restrictions. He states that Wallace believes Ukraine should be able to use all weapons at its disposal without limitations. Jonathan observes that there seems to be cross-party support within the UK for lifting US restrictions on Ukraine striking targets deep within Russian territory, as it would enable more effective use of UK-supplied weaponry.

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Robotic Dogs Deployed by Ukraine

🎦 06:25-07:05⏩

Jonathan highlights the deployment of robotic dogs by the Ukrainian armed forces, provided by the UK. He mentions that Ukraine has 30 of these robotic dogs, which can perform tasks that would typically require multiple technical systems and a significant number of soldiers. He notes that footage exists of the robotic dogs in action, but it's unclear whether it's from training exercises or combat scenarios.

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Netherlands to Deliver 51 Mobile Air Defence Radars to Ukraine

🎦 07:05-08:52⏩

Jonathan reports that the Netherlands plans to purchase and deliver 51 mobile air defence radars to Ukraine by the end of 2024. The radars will be sourced from Robin Radar Systems, a Dutch company. He praises this move by the Netherlands, emphasising that Ukraine will receive these radars within three months. He provides technical details about the radars, stating that they're capable of detecting small drones, distinguishing them from birds, and functioning effectively while on the move. Jonathan explains that this mobility makes the radars harder for the enemy to target and neutralise, allowing Ukraine to maintain continuous detection and countermeasures against Russian drones. He mentions that the Dutch Ministry of Defence had previously provided Ukraine with static radars from Robin Radar Systems, and feedback from Ukrainian personnel requested systems that could operate while mobile. Jonathan highlights the responsiveness of the Dutch government to Ukraine's needs and underscores the importance of these radars in countering drone attacks.

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Lockheed Martin Offers F-16V Viper Aircraft to Ukraine

🎦 08:52-09:37⏩

Jonathan reports that Lockheed Martin has offered to sell Ukraine 72 new F-16V Viper aircraft. While confirming that the F-16s offered to Ukraine will include upgrades, he's uncertain about the specifics but speculates that the radar systems and possibly the fire control system will be enhanced. However, he believes that these aircraft will likely not be the most advanced F-16s available. Jonathan acknowledges that the cost of purchasing these aircraft would be substantial for Ukraine.

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German Military Aid to Ukraine in 2025 and Beyond

🎦 09:37-14:51⏩

Jonathan addresses a viewer's question about a potential freeze in German military aid to Ukraine. He references a previous video (available on ATP Distilled) where he discussed the possibility of Germany reducing its support due to political considerations. The ruling SPD party, in coalition with the Greens, is facing challenges, with concerns that the far-right AfD and the socialist Die Linke could gain momentum, as seen in recent European elections. He cites a Twitter thread from "German Aid to Ukraine," which provides an update on German military aid to Ukraine for 2025 and beyond. The user initially reported that Germany planned to provide all future military aid through a G7 loan financed by interest from frozen Russian assets. However, after clarification from the German Ministry of Finance, they acknowledged this information was inaccurate. Jonathan emphasises that the initial €4 billion earmarked for military aid to Ukraine will come directly from the German budget. The G7 loan will only be used for additional military assistance beyond this initial sum. He notes that while this is positive news, it's essential to understand how the German budgeting process works. He explains that Germany typically budgets for less military expenditure than the previous year initially, but then supplements this with additional funds as the year progresses. However, this year, Germany may not have the budget to add to the initial €4 billion. To compensate for this shortfall, they plan to utilise the G7 loan to replace what would have come from the national budget. Jonathan points out that despite this, Germany's financial commitment to Ukraine in 2025 will still be €3 billion less than in 2024. He stresses that this situation could change as the year progresses and Germany reassesses its economic situation. Jonathan quotes the Twitter user "German Aid to Ukraine" again, stating that the German parliament still needs to approve the draft budget and may negotiate to increase military aid, as they did for the 2024 budget. However, if no additional funds are allocated, Ukraine won't receive any military equipment beyond what's already been announced, as the entire budget for next year has been allocated. On a positive note, Jonathan reveals that €4 billion has also been earmarked for military aid to Ukraine in the 2026 budget. He expresses relief that the situation is not as dire as initially feared, clarifying that previously announced aid packages will continue to be delivered. He expresses appreciation to "GAU" (German Aid to Ukraine) for their work and diligence in providing accurate information. Jonathan acknowledges that the situation is evolving and that updates are necessary as new information emerges.

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Ukroboronprom: The Fastest Growing Defence Company

🎦 14:51-19:14⏩

Jonathan highlights an infographic showing Ukroboronprom, Ukraine's state-owned defence conglomerate, as the world's fastest-growing defence company. He states that Ukroboronprom's revenue surged by 72% in 2023 compared to the previous year, surpassing the growth of American, Turkish, South Korean, and Chinese companies. He notes that despite this impressive growth, Ukroboronprom still ranks 49th globally with $2.2 billion in revenue, indicating it started from a smaller base compared to other defence giants. Jonathan connects this to his previous discussion about Denmark allocating $200 million to support the Ukrainian defence industry. He emphasises that investing in Ukraine's defence industry is the most beneficial form of aid. He argues that this approach ensures that funds are directly injected into the Ukrainian economy, creating jobs and stimulating growth, rather than primarily benefiting the defence industries of donor countries. Jonathan addresses a comment from a viewer who pointed out that Denmark's defence industry isn't as large as other countries, making direct military aid more challenging. He agrees that in such cases, supporting Ukraine's defence industry is the optimal solution. Jonathan compares this approach to the United States' military aid package, where a significant portion is used to replenish US military stockpiles, essentially using aid money to modernise their own armed forces while supplying Ukraine with older equipment. He advocates for directing funds towards Ukraine's defence industry to bolster their economic viability in the long term. Jonathan emphasises the importance of a thriving Ukrainian economy for the country's overall recovery and future prosperity.

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Ukrainian Parliament Passes Law Granting Residency/Citizenship to Foreign Fighters

🎦 19:14-20:46⏩

Jonathan reports that the Ukrainian Parliament (Verkhovna Rada) has approved a draft law granting legal status to foreign volunteers who fought for Ukraine. This law allows foreign fighters to obtain residency, immigration permits, or Ukrainian citizenship. Jonathan highlights that this right will also be extended to the families of foreign fighters. He sees this as a significant development, as it not only recognises the sacrifices made by foreign volunteers who risked their lives for Ukraine but also offers them a chance to rebuild their lives in the country. He points out the additional benefit of this law in attracting more foreign fighters to Ukraine's cause, as it provides a pathway to citizenship and a future in Ukraine. Jonathan also highlights the economic benefits, as foreign fighters and their families would contribute to the Ukrainian economy.

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Russian Manpower Challenges: Average Age of Killed Soldiers Rising

🎦 20:46-27:25⏩

Jonathan discusses a thread from Twitter user Tatarigami, titled "The Myth of Endless Manpower". The thread, posted on 12th August 2024, argues that the notion of Russia having limitless manpower is a misconception, pointing to the fact that the average age of Russian soldiers killed in Ukraine is approaching 38. He references analysis by Front Intelligence Insight, which found that recruitment challenges in Russia are impacting both the quantity and quality of recruits. Jonathan acknowledges that there have been discussions about the rising average age of Ukrainian soldiers, with some suggesting it's around 43. This is often used to argue that Ukraine is struggling to recruit. However, he stresses that these figures are not always accurate. He then presents data from Tatarigami's thread, which indicates that Russia is experiencing similar demographic challenges. According to an investigation by the Conflict Intelligence Team (CIT) and IStories, 345,400 one-time payments were made for signing military contracts in Russia in 2023. This aligns with the GUR's (Ukrainian military intelligence) estimate of 30,000 monthly recruits for the Russian military. Jonathan highlights the increasing financial incentives offered to potential recruits, with sign-on bonuses nearly doubling to 400,000 roubles, with additional payments from local authorities, reaching up to 2 million roubles in Moscow. He then shifts focus to the quality of recruits, citing Tatarigami's research, which analysed 23,584 records from Russian obituary posts on social media. This data, collected by the project Poterpil.net, revealed that the average age of Russian soldiers killed in action has risen from 30.2 in early 2022 to 37.8 by July 2024. Jonathan compares this to the Vietnam War, where the average age of a US service member killed in action was 23.11 years, based on data from the Combat Area Casualty File. He notes that the World Health Organization reported a pre-war life expectancy of 65.6 for Russian males. While unsure if he's interpreting Tatarigami's English correctly, Jonathan expresses shock at the statistic of a healthy life expectancy of 58.2 years for Russian males, if true. Jonathan concludes that the Russian government is not only facing difficulties in attracting recruits but also contending with a pool of individuals who may be less fit for combat roles. He believes this trend undermines the assumption that Russia has an inexhaustible supply of manpower. While acknowledging potential inaccuracies in the data, Jonathan points out that the trend aligns with demographic findings from other investigations and reports from groups such as Mediazona and IStories.

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Russia's Dwindling Military Equipment and Reliance on Outdated Weapons

🎦 27:25-32:32⏩

Jonathan highlights a tweet by "Leeds Fella" (@leeds_fella), suggesting that Russia is running out of modern military equipment. He shares an image from the tweet showing what appears to be outdated Russian military equipment being transported by train. The equipment includes D-20 and D-30 howitzers and M-46 howitzers, some of which Jonathan describes as "museum exhibits." He acknowledges the severity of the situation, indicating that Russia's reliance on such outdated weaponry suggests a critical shortage of modern equipment. However, Jonathan cautions against underestimating the potential danger posed by these older weapons, emphasising that they are still capable of inflicting damage. He points out that despite their age and potential inaccuracy, these artillery pieces can still fire projectiles and pose a threat. He draws a comparison with the M-46 howitzer, which is claimed to have a longer range than some modern howitzers. Jonathan acknowledges that the age and condition of the barrels could affect accuracy and reliability but stresses that Russia's vast quantities of these older weapons should not be disregarded. He expresses his opinion that the use of such outdated weaponry might contribute to the reported statistics of artillery-related casualties in the conflict. Jonathan recalls arguments with pro-Russian individuals who question the high casualty rate attributed to artillery, given Russia's supposed superiority in artillery firepower. He explains that factors beyond the mere quantity of artillery pieces come into play, including intelligence gathering, crew training, weapon accuracy and reliability, and ammunition quality. He emphasises that Ukraine's more modern artillery systems, combined with superior intelligence and tactics, enable them to inflict more casualties with fewer rounds.

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Ukraine's Drone Advantage: Production, Procurement and Effectiveness

🎦 32:32-38:50⏩

Jonathan discusses a tweet thread by Chris O'Wickey that highlights the disparity in drone usage between Ukraine and Russia. He cites O’Wickey’s observation that despite having thousands of drones in stock, Russia is not effectively deploying them to the front lines, leading to a reported drone number disadvantage of at least 10 to 1 in favour of Ukraine. Jonathan questions the reasons behind this disparity, suggesting that while Russia claims to be producing vast numbers of drones, this is not reflected in their battlefield usage. He posits various explanations for this discrepancy, including potential production shortfalls, logistical challenges in transporting drones to the front, a lack of trained drone operators, or the ineffectiveness of Russian drones against Ukrainian countermeasures. He shares an anecdote of his own about engaging with pro-Russian commentators who insist that Russia is producing a million drones annually and has received countless others from allies. Jonathan refutes this claim, stating that visual data from the front lines confirms Ukraine's greater success in using drones to strike Russian targets. He cites Ukraine's Prime Minister, Denys Shmyhal's announcement of a $580 million investment in the purchase of drones for the Ukrainian armed forces, with one million drones already ordered from 500 different companies. Jonathan contrasts this approach with Russia's, suggesting that Ukraine's decentralised procurement strategy, embracing both domestic and international manufacturers, has given them an edge in drone warfare. He argues that this approach fosters innovation and adaptability, with Ukrainian companies modifying their drones to overcome Russian countermeasures. Jonathan believes this explains why Ukrainian drones are proving more successful on the battlefield. Jonathan introduces insights from Roman Alikin, a Russian military volunteer and technologist, who highlights the difference in drone management models between Ukraine and Russia. Alikin notes Ukraine's superiority in attack drone numbers and attributes it to Ukraine's focus on winning the war rather than profiting from it. Jonathan agrees with this assessment, pointing to Shmyhal's statement about contracts with 500 Ukrainian drone manufacturers, demonstrating a network-centric approach to drone development and production. Jonathan contrasts this with Russia, suggesting that despite having contracts with drone manufacturers, the system is plagued by inefficiency and a lack of innovation. He argues that Russia's centralised approach hinders its ability to adapt to evolving battlefield demands, leading to a drone fleet that is outmatched by Ukraine's. He concludes that Russia's reliance on outdated procurement models, prioritising cronyism over battlefield effectiveness, is a significant factor in their drone disadvantage.

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Russia Modifying Yak-52 Trainer Aircraft for Counter-Drone Operations

🎦 38:50-39:11⏩

Jonathan refers to a previous story about Ukrainian forces in the Odesa region using a Yak-52 trainer aircraft, armed with a shotgun, to shoot down drones. He reveals that, mirroring Ukraine's ingenuity, the Russian military is also modifying its Yak-52 trainer aircraft for counter-drone purposes. He explains that the Russian military is equipping these aircraft with additional equipment, including electronic warfare systems, indicating an attempt to adapt to the evolving drone threat.

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South Africa Blocks Shell Transfers to Poland, Potentially Due to Ukraine Concerns

🎦 39:11-41:59⏩

Jonathan reports that South Africa, a member of BRICS (Brazil, Russia, India, China, South Africa), has blocked the transfer of artillery shells to Poland. It is speculated that these shells were intended for Ukraine, potentially as part of the Czech initiative to supply Ukraine with much-needed ammunition. Jonathan suggests that South Africa's decision was likely influenced by pressure from Russia, who may have threatened repercussions if South Africa continued to indirectly support Ukraine's war effort. He speculates that Russia may have leverage over South Africa, given their economic and political ties. Jonathan expresses his disappointment with South Africa's decision, acknowledging the difficult position they are in as a BRICS member with close ties to Russia. He hypothesises that South Africa might have initially agreed to provide the shells discreetly to avoid public scrutiny. He imagines a scenario where Western countries, potentially including the Czech Republic, UK, and US, approached South Africa to purchase surplus artillery shells. He suggests that these countries might have requested a discreet transfer, routing the shells through countries like Mauritius, to avoid drawing attention to South Africa's involvement. Jonathan then suggests that Russian intelligence agencies, potentially the FSB, might have uncovered this clandestine operation, leading to pressure on South Africa to halt the shell transfers. He speculates that Russia likely used economic or political threats to ensure South Africa's compliance. He ends by acknowledging that much of what he's just shared is his interpretation of events and shouldn't be taken as absolute truth.

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Wrap up

🎦 41:59-42:13⏩

Jonathan thanks viewers for watching this extensive military aid update and signs off.

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