Ukraine War Update NEWS: Military Aid & Geopolitical News
Table of Contents 📖
"Listen to what Putin says. Listen to what Medvedev says. Listen to what Peskov says. And listen to what the propagandists say. Listen to what Zelensky is saying and Ukrainians are saying. And then make a choice as to who you think are the good guys here. Because I think it's pretty bloody obvious that the good guys aren't the Russians."
Hello Team
🎦 00:00-00:20⏩
Jonathan welcomes viewers to part two of the daily Ukraine War update. He starts by addressing a few points from the previous video, aiming for clarity on the explosion at a chemical factory in Shakhty, Rostov. He shows a video of the incident, highlighting interference that obscures the cause, leaving it open to interpretation whether it was from a missile or an internal explosion.
Return to top⤴️
Ukraine Ammunition Rationing Concerns and US Funding Issues
🎦 01:59-02:51⏩
Jonathan discusses Ukrainian complaints about ammunition rationing due to uncertainty regarding future shipments. He highlights Anne Applebaum's tweet criticizing US funding delays, which she believes are costing lives. Jonathan expresses frustration with the situation, particularly in light of the potential impact on Ukraine's war effort.
Return to top⤴️
EU Funding for Ukraine: Hungary's Potential Veto and Macron's Stance
🎦 02:51-05:58⏩
- The EU's proposed €50 billion military aid package for Ukraine faces uncertainty due to a potential veto by Hungary's Viktor Orban.
- A petition initiated by a Finnish parliamentarian, gathering over 120 signatures from the European Parliament, aims to prevent Orban from voting on future matters if he continues to obstruct the aid package.
- Ursula von der Leyen, President of the European Commission, has stated that the EU is prepared to approve the aid package with or without Hungary's support. If necessary, an agreement among 26 member states (excluding Hungary) will be pursued.
- French President Emmanuel Macron is finalizing a security agreement with Ukraine, similar to the one concluded with the UK.
- Macron has pledged continued support for Ukraine, emphasizing the need for the EU to take decisive action to prevent a Russian victory.
France to Send 40 More SCALP Missiles to Ukraine
🎦 06:01-08:42⏩
Jonathan discusses France's announcement to send 40 more SCALP cruise missiles to Ukraine, supplementing the initial 50. These missiles are the French equivalent of the UK's Storm Shadow. He references analysis by John Ridge, suggesting that France could potentially provide an additional 45 SCALP EG missiles that are not scheduled for a mid-life update. Jonathan explains that these older missiles are still effective, and providing them to Ukraine would save France the cost of disposal while bolstering Ukraine's capabilities.
Return to top⤴️
Macron Announces Missiles and Bombs for Ukraine
🎦 08:42-09:11⏩
Jonathan highlights Macron's announcement of additional military aid for Ukraine, including "dozens of missiles and hundreds of bombs", quoting an AP News headline. He expresses curiosity about the specific types of bombs being sent and encourages viewers to share any knowledge they have.
Return to top⤴️
German Opposition to Push for Taurus Missile Vote in Bundestag
🎦 09:11-10:25⏩
Jonathan reports that the German opposition will put the transfer of Taurus missiles to Ukraine to a vote in the Bundestag. He expresses hope for widespread political support, similar to the recent increase in German military aid to over €7 billion for 2024, exceeding the initially planned €4 billion. He praises Germany for stepping up its support, recognizing their significant contribution in light of potential US aid shortfalls. He acknowledges the historical sensitivity surrounding Germany's military role, but commends their positive reinvention in support of Ukraine.
Return to top⤴️
Denmark and Netherlands to Deliver Refurbished Leopard Tanks
🎦 10:42-12:05⏩
Jonathan reports that Denmark and the Netherlands are preparing to jointly deliver the first two of 14 refurbished Leopard 2A4 tanks to Ukraine. These tanks, funded by Denmark and the Netherlands, were refurbished in Germany and will be initially sent to Poland for Ukrainian troop training. He notes that this is just the initial delivery from a €165 million aid package announced in April 2023, highlighting the long lead times involved in such military aid commitments.
Return to top⤴️
Latvia Leads Coalition to Provide Thousands of Drones to Ukraine
🎦 12:08-12:46⏩
Jonathan discusses Latvia's efforts in building a coalition of nearly 20 countries to supply Ukraine with thousands of drones. He praises Latvia's proactive role, emphasizing the country's expertise, particularly in IT and drone technology, and underscores the significance of this support for Ukraine.
Return to top⤴️
Debate over Australian Taipan Helicopters for Ukraine
🎦 12:46-14:31⏩
- There is ongoing controversy surrounding the Australian government's decision to retire its Taipan helicopters, potentially denying Ukraine much-needed military aid.
- Mick Ryan, a prominent Australian military analyst, criticizes the Australian government for its lack of transparency and obfuscation on the Taipan issue.
- Jonathan questions the Australian government's justification for scrapping the Taipans based on safety concerns, arguing that other nations are using them effectively.
- He suggests that Ukraine should have the autonomy to decide whether to accept the Taipans, given their potential value in the conflict.
Ukraine Amends Conscription Rules for Military Industry Workers
🎦 14:31-15:15⏩
Jonathan reports that Ukraine is changing its conscription rules, allowing companies producing military equipment to hire staff without restrictions. This move prioritizes the workforce of the military-industrial complex, recognizing its importance in supporting Ukraine's war effort. Jonathan sees this as an indication of Ukraine's long-term military strategy, prioritizing production alongside frontline combat.
Return to top⤴️
Zelensky's Davos Speech: A Call for Action and Criticism of De-escalation
🎦 15:19-18:56⏩
- Jonathan dissects key excerpts from Zelensky's address in Davos, where he criticizes the "do not escalate" approach advocated by some Western nations, particularly early in the war.
- Zelensky argues that this hesitation cost Ukrainian lives and allowed the conflict to escalate.
- He highlights the effectiveness of Western weapons, particularly the Patriot missile systems, in countering Russian aggression.
- Zelensky stresses the importance of continued and increased military support, including air superiority capabilities, to effectively counter Russia's aggression.
- He criticizes the limited effectiveness of sanctions against Russia, particularly the lack of sanctions targeting its nuclear industry, and calls for stronger measures to cripple Russia's war machine.
- He advocates for the use of frozen Russian assets to fund Ukraine's defense and reconstruction.
- Zelensky rejects the idea of a frozen conflict, drawing parallels to the situation in Donbas after 2014, and argues that Putin, as an aggressor, will not be content with such an outcome.
- He emphasizes the need for decisive action from the international community to ensure a just and lasting peace, urging global leaders to unite in support of Ukraine.
Zelensky Proposes Global Peace Summit in Switzerland
🎦 18:56-20:13⏩
Jonathan highlights Zelensky's proposal for a "Global Peace Summit" to be held in Switzerland, emphasizing peace as the ultimate solution. This follows a successful meeting of national security advisors from over 80 countries and international institutions, demonstrating growing support for Ukraine's peace initiatives. Jonathan praises Zelensky's strategic communication and ability to garner international support.
Return to top⤴️
Medvedev's Threat and the Importance of Countering Russian Propaganda
🎦 20:13-22:50⏩
- Jonathan juxtaposes Zelensky's message of peace with the continued aggressive rhetoric from Russia, citing Anton Gerashchenko's tweet about Dmitry Medvedev's latest pronouncements.
- Medvedev, Deputy Chairman of the Russian Security Council, reiterated his stance that Ukraine should be destroyed as an independent state and that the only option for Ukrainians is to submit to Russian imperial rule.
- Jonathan highlights the challenges faced by US supporters of Ukraine, particularly Republicans like Brian Ivey, who are being attacked within conservative circles for their stance.
- He emphasizes the importance of countering Russian propaganda by directly comparing Zelensky's message of peace and self-determination with Russia's imperialist ambitions. He argues that this contrast exposes the true nature of the conflict and the actors involved.
Analysis of Putin's Stance on Peace Negotiations
🎦 22:50-28:10⏩
- Jonathan delves into an analysis of Putin's stance on peace negotiations, drawing on insights from Tatiana Stanovaya, a senior fellow at the Carnegie Russia Eurasia Center.
- The analysis posits that Putin does not view the West as a reliable negotiating partner, believing they are incapable of understanding or respecting Russia's strategic interests.
- While Putin's representatives might signal a willingness to negotiate, these individuals are not necessarily acting on direct orders but rather interpreting what they believe to be his desires.
- Putin's calls for peace negotiations are seen as a tactic to buy time and exploit perceived Western weaknesses, particularly the possibility of waning US support.
- The analysis concludes that Putin would only agree to a peace deal that involves Ukraine's capitulation and acceptance of Russia's terms, essentially a Russia-friendly regime.
- Jonathan challenges the notion of Ukraine's inevitable defeat, highlighting the Ukrainian people's resilience and determination to resist Russian aggression.
- He believes that while Ukraine might consider some concessions in the future, outright capitulation on Putin's terms is highly unlikely.
- The analysis suggests that Putin's successor, even a hardline one, is unlikely to pursue the same approach to the conflict, opening up possibilities for a resolution in a post-Putin era.
Russia Plans to Isolate Runet from the Global Internet
🎦 28:10-29:12⏩
Jonathan reports that the Russian government is still planning to isolate the Russian internet (Runet) from the global internet. He sees this as a move to control information more tightly and prevent access to outside sources through VPNs. He criticizes this as a step towards authoritarianism and control.
Return to top⤴️
Blinken Warns of Putin's Broader Ambitions
🎦 29:12-30:20⏩
- Jonathan shifts to a meeting between Zelensky and US Secretary of State Antony Blinken on the sidelines of the Davos summit.
- He notes Blinken's warning that Putin's aggressive ambitions extend beyond Ukraine and could target NATO countries if left unchecked.
- Jonathan expresses his belief that Blinken is a strong advocate for Ukraine within the Biden administration, pushing for maximalist aid despite opposition from Republicans in Congress and proponents of de-escalation.
Biden Invites Congressional Leaders to Discuss Ukraine Aid
🎦 30:20-32:20⏩
- Jonathan reports on President Biden's invitation to congressional leaders for a White House meeting to discuss Ukraine aid and spending priorities.
- The meeting follows Senate Republicans' blockage of a $61.4 billion aid package for Ukraine.
- Jonathan expresses hope that the meeting, which includes pro-Ukraine figures like Mitch McConnell, might help to sway some Republicans and secure vital aid for Ukraine.
- He suggests that providing skeptical Republicans with sensitive intelligence and insights into the situation's gravity might be crucial in overcoming opposition.
Estonia Ends Funding for Russian Language Education
🎦 32:24-33:06⏩
- Jonathan reports that Estonia has decided to stop funding Russian-language education, transitioning to a unified Estonian-language system.
- He supports this decision, viewing it as a way to counter Russian cultural influence. He argues that funding Russian language education inadvertently makes Estonian citizens more susceptible to Russian propaganda.
Protests in Bashkortostan over Activist Sentencing and Censorship
🎦 33:06-35:27⏩
- Jonathan highlights the ongoing protests in Bashkortostan, Russia, following the sentencing of environmental activists who were protesting against gold mining.
- Authorities have responded to the protests with censorship, blocking popular Telegram channels covering the events.
- Jonathan sees the protests, which call for the resignation of the regional head, as a positive sign of dissent against the Russian government.
- He believes that a harsh crackdown by Russian authorities could further fuel discontent and potentially inspire wider unrest.
Calls for Bashkir Soldiers to Return Home from Ukraine
🎦 35:27-36:00⏩
- Jonathan points to online videos emerging from Bashkortostan urging residents serving in the Russian military in Ukraine to return home and defend their homeland.
- He sees this as a direct result of the protests and a sign that internal dissent within Russia is growing, potentially undermining Russia's war effort.
Airbus Cancels Airplane Deliveries to Iran
🎦 36:00-36:55⏩
Jonathan briefly notes that Airbus has cancelled a 2016 deal to deliver 100 airplanes to Iran Air due to renewed US sanctions. He sees this as an example of the effectiveness of sanctions and argues that they should be maintained and strengthened to exert pressure on countries like Iran.
Return to top⤴️
Wrap up
🎦 36:55-37:53⏩
- Jonathan thanks viewers for watching, acknowledging the length of the video due to his in-depth analysis.
- He reiterates his earlier call to critically examine the messages coming from both Russia and Ukraine, urging viewers to recognize the contrast between Russian imperialist rhetoric and Zelensky's pleas for peace and freedom.
- He concludes by emphasizing the importance of recognizing the authoritarian nature of the Putin regime and the threats it poses to freedom and democracy.
