Ukraine War Update BUMPER NEWS: Geopolitical News - The Autocratic Slide Continues

"Like, Bev Turner can take a long walk off a short pier as far as I am concerned."

Hello Team

🎦 00:00-00:18⏩
*Jonathan welcomes viewers to ATP Geopolitics and the Ukraine War News Update, part three for 21st February 2025. *He indicates there is a "tonne of stuff" to cover in this bumper news edition.

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Video to cover peace talks, Steve Bannon Nazi salutes, US force threats and Russian propaganda

🎦 00:18-00:33⏩
*Jonathan outlines the topics to be covered in this update, ranging from peace talks to Steve Bannon's Nazi salutes, threats of US troop withdrawal from Germany, and various other geopolitical developments in between.

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Russian propagandists ordered to push victory narratives ahead of invasion anniversary and disinformation campaign to weaken Ukrainian morale

🎦 00:33-00:55⏩
*Russian propagandists have reportedly been instructed to promote narratives of victory, even over NATO, in anticipation of the anniversary of the full-scale invasion of Ukraine. *Ukrainian defence intelligence reports that the Kremlin is actively spreading disinformation to undermine Ukrainian morale, destabilise the country, and discredit Ukraine amongst its allies. *This is seen as preparation for a surge of disinformation from Russia.

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Macron and Starmer to visit Trump at White House; concerns about influencing Trump's narrative

🎦 00:55-01:17⏩
*French President Macron will visit Trump at the White House on Monday, followed by UK Prime Minister Keir Starmer on Thursday. *Macron appears to have taken precedence over Starmer in terms of timing. *Jonathan expresses doubt about how much either leader can alter the narrative coming from a Trump White House, suggesting Trump is "insanely intransigent".

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Trump perceives Europe as a threat to US; intransigent view

🎦 01:17-01:30⏩
*Jonathan believes Trump views Europe as a threat to the United States, describing his stance as intransigent. *He suggests Trump has a "recency bias" and now perceives Europe as a threat.

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Trump sees EU and UK alliance with Ukraine against US interests

🎦 01:30-01:49⏩
*Jonathan argues that Trump has "switched sides" and sees the alliance between the EU, UK, and Ukraine as being against US interests. *He speculates that Trump's perspective might be driven by a desire for the US to profit from "extorting Ukraine" to achieve an unjust peace, rather than supporting Ukraine.

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Russia demands NATO withdrawal from Eastern flank in US talks over Ukraine; Romania expresses concern

🎦 01:49-02:23⏩
*Referencing Shashank Joshi from the Financial Times, Jonathan reports that Russia used the initial round of talks with the US regarding Ukraine to demand the withdrawal of NATO forces from NATO's eastern flank. *This demand has caused concern in Europe, with fears that the Trump administration might agree to it to secure a peace deal. *The Romanian government has publicly stated this concern, highlighting its significance. Jonathan notes JD Vance has also echoed similar sentiments.

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Russia proposes using frozen assets for reconstruction but demands part be spent in Russian-controlled areas

🎦 02:23-03:01⏩
*Reports from Reuters suggest Russia might agree to the use of the $300 billion in frozen Russian assets held in Europe for reconstruction in Ukraine. *However, Russia reportedly insists that a portion of these funds must be used to rebuild the areas of Ukraine currently under Moscow's control, including cities like Mariupol, Luhansk, and Donetsk, which have been heavily damaged by Russian forces. *Jonathan finds this proposal "interesting" highlighting the paradoxical nature of Russia wanting to use frozen assets to rebuild areas they control after destroying them.

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China backs US-Russia consensus on Ukraine war, indicating belief in US acting on behalf of China or Russia

🎦 03:02-03:48⏩
*China has declared its support for a US-Russia consensus on the Ukraine war, which Jonathan finds "really revealing". *He interprets this as China anticipating and endorsing an agreement between the US and Russia, even before any consensus has been reached and without Ukraine's involvement. *Jonathan suggests this indicates China believes the US will act in a way that benefits China, and possibly Russia, primarily China. *He notes China's statement that it is prepared to play a constructive role in a political settlement.

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China questions where to source gas if not from Russia due to high demand and existing pipelines

🎦 03:48-04:29⏩
*China's Foreign Minister has questioned the feasibility of China ceasing gas purchases from Russia. *The question is posed rhetorically to highlight the practical difficulties China would face in replacing the vast quantities of gas it currently imports from Russia. *Jonathan emphasizes the logistical challenges of gas transportation and the existing pipeline infrastructure already in place for Russian gas, suggesting China is heavily reliant on Russian gas supply.

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China conducts live fire drills in Tasman Sea, causing consternation in Australia and New Zealand; perceived as emboldened by US and Western weakness

🎦 04:29-05:27⏩
*China has commenced live fire military training exercises in the Tasman Sea, located between Australia and New Zealand. *This action has caused significant concern in both Australia and New Zealand. *Retired Australian General Mick Ryan has criticised the Australian government's "gutless response", suggesting they are "out of their depth" in the evolving geopolitical environment and unwilling to confront Chinese assertiveness. *Jonathan interprets China's actions as a sign of them being emboldened by perceived Western weakness and disunity, particularly the US "eating itself and changing sides". He questions whether this will lead to China acting on Taiwan or becoming more assertive in the Indo-Pacific region. *He believes the US has relinquished its hegemonic position unless there is a radical shift in approach.

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EU seeks more US gas to replace Russian supplies, potentially as incentive for US to maintain Ukraine support

🎦 05:28-05:43⏩
*The EU is reportedly seeking to increase its imports of gas from the US to compensate for reduced Russian supplies. *Jonathan suggests this move could be seen as a "sweetener" to encourage the US to "stay on course" and maintain its support for Ukraine, implying a potential bargain where increased US gas purchases could be linked to continued US commitment to Ukraine.

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EU aims to diversify energy with renewables and nuclear to reduce reliance on Russia, and potentially US

🎦 05:43-06:10⏩
*The EU is aiming to accelerate the development of renewable energy sources to decrease its overall dependence on fuel imports. *EU Commissioner Dan Jorgensen indicates this strategy likely includes both renewable energy and nuclear power. *The goal is to wean the EU off reliance on external energy suppliers, not just for environmental reasons but also for security.

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Climate change concerns overshadowed by war; energy independence framed as security issue, not just climate

🎦 06:11-06:47⏩
*Jonathan observes that climate change concerns have been "forgotten in light of this war". *He notes the US now framing climate change as a "woke agenda". *He argues that energy diversification and independence are primarily about security, not solely about climate change. *Relying on LNG from the US could simply shift leverage from Russia to the US, highlighting the need for true energy independence.

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JD Vance floats US troop withdrawal from Germany over "free speech concerns"

🎦 06:51-07:00⏩
*JD Vance has suggested the possibility of withdrawing US troops from Germany, citing "free speech concerns". *This statement was made at CPAC (Conservative Political Action Conference), which Jonathan describes as a venue for "wingnut selves".

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CPAC conference focuses on "woke" issues; Jonathan criticises as irrelevant

🎦 07:01-07:17⏩
*Jonathan criticises the focus of CPAC on "woke whatever", dismissing it as unimportant in the context of larger geopolitical issues. *He expresses frustration with this focus, urging them to "get over it" and address more pressing matters.

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Project 2025 agenda obsessed with "free speech"; using it to threaten troop withdrawal from Germany

🎦 07:17-07:29⏩
*Jonathan identifies the "Project 2025 agenda" as being "absolutely obsessed with this crap" referring to "woke" issues and "free speech". *He interprets JD Vance's troop withdrawal suggestion as leveraging "free speech" concerns in Europe, particularly Germany, as a pretext for potential action.

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EU regulation of Twitter (X) and social media due to Russian bots and trolls

🎦 07:30-07:52⏩
*Jonathan suggests the real reason behind the "free speech" concern is EU efforts to regulate Twitter (now X) and other social media networks. *The EU aims to regulate these platforms due to the significant manipulation and disinformation campaigns carried out by "vast numbers of Russian bots and trolls". *He cites a claim that "70% of European located Twitter accounts are now trolls and bots", highlighting the severity of the issue from the EU's perspective.

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Elon Musk's influence in Republican party and opposition to EU Twitter regulation

🎦 07:52-08:11⏩
*Jonathan points to Elon Musk's influence within the Republican Party and his central role in the US government. *He claims Musk, who funds the Republican Party, is using his influence to prevent the EU from regulating Twitter. *This is because Elon Musk is against regulation and likely sees it as a threat to his platform and potentially his business interests.

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JD Vance announces potential US troop withdrawal from Germany due to EU's stance on Twitter, influenced by Elon Musk and Peter Thiel

🎦 08:11-08:28⏩
*Jonathan elaborates that Elon Musk, funded by Peter Thiel, instructed JD Vance to pressure the EU regarding Twitter regulation. *JD Vance, allegedly acting on Musk's behalf, then suggested the Trump administration might reconsider its military presence in Germany. *This is framed as tying continued US defence commitments to Berlin's stance on "free speech" or Europe's approach to Twitter regulation, effectively using military leverage to influence EU tech policy.

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Shashank Joshi warns Article 5 of NATO is weakened under current US leadership; "act accordingly"

🎦 08:55-09:03⏩
*Shashank Joshi, from The Economist, a defence expert, warns that "Article 5 is not worth much under these people" referring to the current US political climate. *Joshi's statement is a significant warning, implying that the mutual defence clause of NATO may be unreliable under a Trump administration. *His advice "Act accordingly" is interpreted as a serious call for European nations to reassess their security strategies and reliance on the US.

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Article 5 of NATO undermined by US stance; US will realise difficulty of power projection without German bases

🎦 09:03-09:23⏩
*Jonathan interprets JD Vance's statement as a "really big warning shot" indicating that Article 5 of NATO now means "at the square root of feck all" due to figures like Vance and Trump. *He agrees with Joshi's warning that Europe needs to "act accordingly" as Article 5 may no longer be dependable. *He predicts the US will eventually discover the difficulty and high cost of projecting military power globally without the logistical hubs and bases in Germany should they withdraw.

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US defence spending in Europe historically in US strategic interest, not charity or due to European free-riding

🎦 09:23-10:40⏩
*Jonathan argues against the narrative that Europe is to blame for lower defence spending and that the US has been charitable. *He asserts that the US spent significantly more on defence in Europe during the Cold War not out of charity, but because it was in the US's strategic interest, as well as Europe's. *He wrote about this in a back channel group, expressing his frustration with the blame game and the accusation of European "free-riding".

Europe's post-war reconstruction and welfare states while US led Cold War defence efforts

🎦 10:40-11:46⏩
*Jonathan explains the historical context of differing defence spending: post-WWII, Europe focused on rebuilding infrastructure and developing welfare states, while the US took the lead in the Cold War against the USSR and communism. *The US projected power in Europe to prevent it from falling under Soviet influence, spending heavily on bases because it served US strategic interests to contain the USSR. *He reiterates that US spending was not primarily about charity to Europe.

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US shift to isolationism since 2014; Obama's 2% GDP defence spending target for Europe as realignment

🎦 11:46-12:27⏩
*Jonathan notes the US has been moving towards a more populist and isolationist stance, desiring to recede from European affairs since around 2014. *Obama's 2014 call for NATO members to spend 2% of GDP on defence was the beginning of this realignment, aiming to get Europe to take more responsibility for its own security. *This was a broader geopolitical shift, not just about burden-sharing, but a change in US strategic posture.

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Trump's blame game on Europe's defence spending; misunderstands historical context; Europe should pay more or US should leave

🎦 12:28-12:59⏩
*Trump and his team are now blaming Europe for not spending enough on defence, demonstrating a lack of understanding of the historical reasons behind this disparity. *Jonathan acknowledges some European nations should spend more, but criticises the blame game and the failure to understand history. *He suggests that the focus should be on moving forward: Europe needs to increase defence spending, and if the US intends to withdraw, it should do so cleanly without constant criticism and blame.

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NATO Article 5 and US support; previous European support after 9/11; current US stance undermines NATO

🎦 13:00-13:23⏩
*Jonathan warns that the US might one day need to invoke Article 5 again, just as they did after 9/11, when European nations, including Germany, Denmark, and the UK, offered support. *He reminds the US of European solidarity then and suggests that by constantly attacking Europe and undermining NATO, the US risks losing the alliance and future support when they might need it. *He concludes with a direct warning: "If you keep doing this, NATO won't exist and you won't have us to call on. And you'll be on your own, mate. So stop it."

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Free speech hypocrisy and US press freedom; US ranks lower on press freedom index

🎦 13:25-13:53⏩
*Jonathan expresses annoyance at the US concern over "free speech" in Berlin, arguing it's hypocritical. *He points out that the US ranks lower than most European nations on the Freedom of Press Index, questioning the US's authority to lecture Europe on free speech.

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Robert Garcia's "dick" comment about Elon Musk and DOJ letter as attack on free speech; hypocrisy of MAGA Republicans

🎦 13:54-14:29⏩
*Jonathan discusses Robert Garcia, who publicly called Elon Musk a "dick". *He highlights the reaction from CNN's Brianna Keller, who questioned the responsibility of such language from a politician, and Garcia's unapologetic response. *Jonathan finds Garcia's response "brilliant". *He then reveals that Garcia received a letter from the US Department of Justice regarding this comment, which Jonathan sees as a genuine attack on free speech. *He contrasts this with the MAGA Republicans' supposed concern for free speech, highlighting their hypocrisy given the DOJ's action against Garcia for criticising Musk.

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Dutch arrest man for illegally exporting tech to Russia via Hong Kong; UAE and Cyprus violating sanctions

🎦 15:03-15:20⏩
*Jonathan reports that Dutch authorities have arrested a 57-year-old man for illegally exporting motherboards and GPUs to Russia through Hong Kong. *He also mentions that the UAE and Cyprus are violating sanctions by facilitating sales worth $24 million to Russia. *While condemning the sanctions violations, he praises the Dutch authorities for the arrest.

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Dutch government cuts funding for NGOs related to women's rights, education, culture, climate initiatives; "MAGA" approach

🎦 15:21-16:21⏩
*Jonathan reports on the pressure faced by NGOs in the Netherlands, exacerbated by USAID funding cuts and domestic developments. *The Dutch government has announced it will stop funding projects related to women's rights, gender equality, vocational and higher education, sports, and culture. *Significant cuts will also affect climate initiatives, civil society support, and multilateral cooperation. *Jonathan describes this as the Dutch government going "MAGA", quoting a minister from the far-right PVV party stating that all development programs must directly benefit Dutch interests. He highlights Geert Wilders' far right influence. *A Dutch individual expresses concern, emphasizing the broader benefits of development programs.

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Romanian presidential candidate Karlin Georgiescu claims Ukrainian territories and bizarre spiritual views; linked to Elon Musk

🎦 16:21-17:27⏩
*Jonathan discusses concerning statements from Karlin Georgiescu, a Romanian presidential candidate. *Georgiescu is quoted claiming Romania needs to take territories from Ukraine, including Northern Bukovina, Bugiak, and parts of Maramuras and Transcarpathia, stating Ukraine is an "inventor state that will disappear". *Georgiescu also espouses bizarre, grandiose views of Romania, claiming it is the "energetic centre of planet Earth" and destined to lead a "worldwide spiritual revolution". *Jonathan links Georgiescu to Elon Musk, suggesting Musk is working to install him as president, despite his openly stating Romania will "invade Ukraine".

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Romanian source claims US regime attempting coup to install pro-Russian leader; MAGA blamed

🎦 17:27-18:12⏩
*Jonathan presents a contrasting view from another Romanian source, Adrian P., who claims the "effing American regime" is attempting a coup in Romania to install a pro-Russian "stooge" who is a moon landing denier. *This source blames "MAGA" and urges Americans to "stop MAGA or become the villains of the world with them." *This highlights the polarised and conspiratorial narratives surrounding Romanian politics and US influence.

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Romania, Tate brothers' case, and MAGA disinformation campaign; Russia demands NATO withdrawal from Eastern Europe, Romania confirms

🎦 18:13-18:34⏩
*Jonathan notes the overall negative situation concerning Romania, mentioning the arrest of the Tate brothers in Romania on sex trafficking charges and the "disinformation spread by the MAGA administration" regarding cancelled presidential elections. *He reiterates the report from the Financial Times that Russia demanded NATO withdrawal from Eastern Europe during talks with the US. *Romania is now confirming that Russia has indeed asked the US to withdraw NATO troops from Eastern Europe.

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US appears to be fulfilling Russia's demand for NATO withdrawal; JD Vance's troop withdrawal threat

🎦 18:34-19:02⏩
*Jonathan connects Romania's confirmation of Russia's demand with JD Vance's threat to withdraw US troops from Germany over "free speech ideas". *He suggests the US appears to be aligning with and potentially fulfilling Russia's demands regarding NATO troop presence in Eastern Europe. *He concludes "The US on Russia's side. It is just obvious now."

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US rejection but uncertainty; unconscionable US actions

🎦 19:02-19:23⏩
*While the US delegation initially rejected Moscow's demand for NATO withdrawal, Jonathan notes there are "no guarantees" that the US will not eventually concede to Putin. *He highlights JD Vance's threat as evidence of potential concession. *He concludes "It is unconscionable what the United States is presently doing."

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Elon Musk attacks Zelensky on elections and dictatorship claims; malicious and beyond eccentric ramblings

🎦 19:24-20:02⏩
*Jonathan discusses Elon Musk's renewed attacks on Zelensky, particularly regarding the postponement of elections in Ukraine. *Musk is quoted saying Zelensky must hold elections to prove he represents the people or be considered a dictator. *While acknowledging Musk's occasional fact-checking of Trump, Jonathan dismisses this as insignificant compared to his sustained attacks on Zelensky. *He believes Musk's actions have crossed a line and are no longer "unhinged ramblings" but "outright malicious".

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Musk's past Ukraine support contrasted with current attacks; official part of US government influencing Romanian politics

🎦 20:03-20:28⏩
*Jonathan highlights the dramatic shift in Elon Musk's stance, contrasting his March 2022 "Hold strong, Ukraine" tweet with his current attacks on Zelensky. *He argues that Musk is now effectively "part of the US government", referencing Trump's admission of Musk's influence ("in charge of Doge"). *He points to Musk's involvement with AFD in Germany and Romanian politics as evidence of his active and concerning role. *He reiterates that Musk's actions are "outright malicious" and not just eccentricity.

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Trump's dictator image and Zelensky's popularity; more support for Zelensky in US than for Trump in US

🎦 20:56-21:50⏩
*Jonathan cites a new poll showing that Americans view Trump more as a dictator than Zelensky. *He notes there is more support for Zelensky within the US than for Trump, and more support for Zelensky in Ukraine than Trump has in the US. *He finds it "beyond the pale" for Trump to accuse Zelensky of being a dictator given these poll findings, suggesting Trump is projecting his own tendencies onto Zelensky. *He mentions Trump's "tanking" ratings across multiple pollsters.

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GB News and pro-Russian narrative; Tom Tugendhat and Bill Browder condemn

🎦 21:58-22:42⏩
*Jonathan expresses his disdain for GB News, describing it as a "Fox News equivalent". *He plays a clip from GB News where an anchor, Bev Turner, refers to Russia's invasion of Ukraine as a "special military operation". *Conservative MP Tom Tugendhat strongly refutes this, correcting her language and highlighting the true nature of the invasion. *Sir Bill Browder also condemns GB News, noting the anchor is using language akin to Russian state television, expressing shock at "what is happening?".

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Putin's invasion aims; Jonathan argues it was full-scale invasion attempt, not limited operation

🎦 22:42-23:37⏩
*The GB News clip continues with Bev Turner suggesting Putin's "special military operation" was intended to force negotiation, not take over Ukraine. *Tom Tugendhat again strongly disagrees, calling this a "complete rewriting history". *Jonathan sides with Tugendhat, arguing that Putin sent shock troops to seize Kyiv airport and planned a rapid armoured advance from Belarus, indicating a clear intention to take Kyiv and the whole of Ukraine. *He explains the failure of Russia's initial offensive was due to corruption and logistical failures within the Russian army, not a limited military objective.

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Bev Turner and GB News criticism; Jonathan expresses disgust; Sir Bill Browder's disgust

🎦 24:02-24:35⏩
*Jonathan expresses strong disgust at Bev Turner's pro-Russian framing of the invasion, stating "Like, Bev Turner can take a long walk off a short pier as far as I am concerned." *He praises Tom Tugendhat for dispelling Turner's narrative. *Sir Bill Browder reiterates his "unbelievable" reaction to GB News using "special military operation", comparing it to Russian state TV, and repeats "What is happening? That's disgusting." *Jonathan concludes that Reform UK, associated with GB News, is now also adopting this pro-Russian line.

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Farage at CPAC and Trump defence; criticised for prioritising Trump over UK constituency

🎦 24:36-25:17⏩
*Nigel Farage, from Reform UK, is at CPAC in America, which Jonathan finds inappropriate given Farage is a UK politician representing Clacton. *He sarcastically suggests Farage's constituents in Clacton would prefer him to fix potholes rather than "schmoozing with Trump". *He notes Farage's role as "Reform UK leader isn't really a local MP, let's face it." *Farage is interviewed by Sky News from CPAC, defending Trump's statements.

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Farage's "don't take Trump literally" defence of Trump's false claims about Zelensky; Jonathan's disbelief

🎦 25:18-26:08⏩
*Jonathan discusses Nigel Farage's defence of Trump's false claims about Zelensky (e.g., 4% approval rating, dictator). *Farage's advice is "don't take Trump literally", suggesting Trump's statements should be interpreted metaphorically or not at face value. *Jonathan expresses disbelief and ridicule at this defence, questioning how to interpret Trump's claims metaphorically and why Trump wouldn't just say what he "really meant".

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Farage criticised as sycophant for defending Trump's pro-Putin and anti-Ukraine stance

🎦 26:08-26:23⏩
*Jonathan concludes that Farage's defence of Trump is nonsensical and sycophantic, aimed at "getting your mate Trump off the hook for being himself." *He criticises Trump for being "unbelievably supportive of Putin and unbelievably critical of Zelensky and Ukraine and all of the US's allies." *He argues Farage is unable to criticise Trump due to his desire to "smooch around CPAC".

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UK-Norway Arctic Defence Pact; potential signal of UK-Norway EU-adjacent alliance building

🎦 26:38-27:27⏩
*The UK and Norway are in discussions about a new Arctic Defence Pact due to the "Russian threat". *UK Defence Secretary John Healy emphasizes the UK's leadership role in European security and determination to protect interests. *Jonathan and his "mate Dave" at the pub discuss whether this pact signifies more than just neighbourly cooperation. *They speculate if it could be a sign of the UK and Norway, both outside the EU (though Norway has close ties), forming an alliance, potentially signalling a closer relationship with Europe without being formally in the EU. *Jonathan ultimately leans towards it just being about "geography" and practical security concerns in the Arctic.

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Brexit "hard" approach criticised; Norway model as better hybrid option for UK-EU relations

🎦 27:28-28:49⏩
*Jonathan reflects on Brexit, criticising Theresa May's "hard lead" approach which ruled out a hybrid Brexit like Norway's relationship with the EU. *He argues a Norway-style agreement, without free movement of people but with closer economic ties, would have been economically better for the UK. *He mentions the UK's post-Brexit trade deals, even with countries like Japan and Australia, have been "terrible", with Brexiteers admitting the Australia deal was bad. *He suggests the UK-Norway Arctic Defence Pact could be a way for the UK to forge closer ties with Europe indirectly, through Norway's unique EU relationship.

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UK public opinion on Ukraine vs US relations; UK public prioritise Ukraine support over US relations by a large margin

🎦 28:49-29:18⏩
*Jonathan discusses new polling results about UK public opinion. *The poll asked if it's more important for the UK government to support Ukraine or maintain good relations with the US. *48% chose Ukraine, while only 20% chose the US. 14% chose neither, and 18% didn't know. *Jonathan highlights that "two and a half times more people want to support Ukraine than the US", finding this "absolutely fascinating". *He notes it's just one poll and should be taken "with a pinch of salt", but agrees with the sentiment personally.

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Zelensky-Churchill election postponement comparison; Trump's attempted coup vs Zelensky's actions

🎦 29:19-30:41⏩
*Referencing David Frum, Jonathan discusses the comparison between Zelensky postponing elections during wartime (like Churchill in WWII) and Trump's attempt to overturn the 2020 election in peacetime. *He highlights the hypocrisy of MAGA figures calling Zelensky a dictator for postponing elections while ignoring Trump's actions. *He points out that Churchill also postponed elections for nine years and outlawed pro-Nazi parties, yet was not called a dictator. *He contrasts this with Trump's attempt to overturn an election "by violence" and his pardoning of "co-conspirators in that attempted coup", asking "So you tell me who's moving towards dictatorship."

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British Foreign Minister Lammy: no Russian appetite for peace; US capitulation to Russia more problematic

🎦 30:42-31:15⏩
*British Foreign Minister David Lammy reports that he sees "no appetite from Russia for peace with Ukraine" after listening to Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov at a G20 diplomats meeting. *This information makes the idea of the US capitulating to Russia even more problematic, as Russia is not interested in genuine peace and still holds "maximalist agenda".

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Zelensky-Kellogg meeting restores hope after Riyadh and Trump's attacks; need for strong US agreements

🎦 31:16-31:48⏩
*Jonathan reports that Zelensky met with Keith Kellogg, the US special envoy to Ukraine, and that Zelensky stated this meeting "restored hope". *Jonathan interprets this as Zelensky having lost hope due to events in Riyadh and Trump's attacks, as well as JD Vance's rhetoric. *Zelensky is quoted saying the meeting restores hope and Ukraine needs "strong agreements with America. Agreements that will really work."

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Kellogg praises Zelensky; contradicts Trump; potential focus on Ukraine's natural resources deal

🎦 31:48-32:35⏩
*US special envoy Keith Kellogg called Zelensky a "brave and courageous leader of our nation at war," directly contradicting Trump's negative portrayal of Zelensky. *Kellogg reported "long and productive" discussions and praised Zelensky's "talented national security team". *Jonathan believes this positive tone from Kellogg is an attempt to "rebuild some of those very damaged bridges." *He speculates that much of the conversation likely revolved around Ukraine's natural resources and the "extortion deal" being proposed by the US.

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US policy chaos; mixed messages from US officials in meetings

🎦 32:37-32:57⏩
*Jonathan cites a European diplomat who reports "chaos" in US policy towards Ukraine. *Different US officials are reportedly saying different things in meetings, and even the same officials are giving contradictory messages in different meetings. *This indicates a lack of clear, consistent policy and ideology coming from the US administration.

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US promises Europe to maintain Russian sanctions until Ukraine peace deal, but threats to lift sanctions exist

🎦 32:57-33:19⏩
*The Kyiv Independent reports that the US has assured Europe it will maintain Russian sanctions at least until a Ukraine peace deal is reached, according to Bloomberg. *US Secretary of State Rubio reportedly reassured European colleagues of this commitment in a phone call on February 18th. *However, Jonathan notes that there have been "lots of threats to lift the sanctions" since then, creating uncertainty and contradicting these assurances.

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European officials uncertain about US pivot towards Russia; Rubio attempts to allay fears

🎦 33:20-33:37⏩
*Jonathan states that European officials remain "uncertain" about a perceived US "pivot towards Russia", despite Rubio's assurances. *Rubio reportedly stated that US talks with Moscow are only a "first step and not a shift in policy" to allay European fears that the US is abandoning Ukraine. *However, the underlying uncertainty and distrust in US policy remain among European allies.

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Trump plans to withdraw US from UN Human Rights Council and end UNRWA funding; expected move

🎦 33:37-33:59⏩
*Politico reports that Trump plans to withdraw the US from the UN Human Rights Council and end funding for UNRWA (United Nations Relief and Works Agency for Palestine Refugees in the Near East). *The UNRWA funding cut is controversial, with claims it funds Hamas. *These moves are described as reviving Trump's first-term policies and driven by claims of the council's "anti-Israel bias". *Jonathan states this is "kind of expected".

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Republicans propose US withdrawal from UN completely, including funding cuts and peacekeeping

🎦 34:09-34:32⏩
*Jonathan reports that Republicans in the US have launched efforts to withdraw the US completely from the UN. *A proposed bill calls for a complete withdrawal, including cutting off all funding to the UN and its agencies and ending participation in peacekeeping missions. *Jonathan expresses doubt the bill will pass, but highlights the radical nature of the proposal and its implications. *He expresses shock: "Wow. This is what the US is doing now."

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US executive orders and international bodies; concerns about withdrawal from WHO, Paris Accord, UN, NATO

🎦 34:32-34:47⏩
*Jonathan expresses concern about the potential for executive orders under a Trump administration to withdraw the US from various international organisations. *He lists the WHO, Paris Agreement, UN, UN Human Rights Council, and even NATO as potentially at risk. *He states "it wouldn't surprise" him and concludes "it's all looking bad."

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US stance on UN resolution condemning Russia; may want to remove "aggressor" reference; G7 statement softened by US

🎦 34:47-35:55⏩
*Jonathan reports that the US has not yet decided whether to support the annual UN resolution condemning Russia's invasion of Ukraine. *John Kelly, US political coordinator to the UN, stated they are waiting for instructions from Washington. *He further reports that the US has suggested to the G7 that they want to remove the idea of "Russia is the aggressor in the war" from statements, which Jonathan finds "insane". *US officials have reportedly softened a G7 statement, removing references that could be interpreted as "pro-Ukraine", seeking a "neutral stance" on the anniversary of the invasion, referring to it as a "devastating war" but avoiding mention of Russian culpability.

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JD Vance criticises Zelensky for "badmouthing" Trump; defends Trump's insults; Jonathan criticises Vance as "horrible human being"

🎦 35:56-37:26⏩
*Jonathan plays a clip of JD Vance criticising Zelensky for allegedly "badmouthing" Trump. *Vance argues Zelensky's country "wouldn't exist without the generosity of the United States of America" and should be "saying thank you" instead of criticising Trump publicly. *Vance defends Trump's insults towards Zelensky, calling Zelensky "insulting" to Trump, the American people, and "stupid" for criticising Trump publicly. *Jonathan strongly condemns Vance's statement, asking "How about your president stops insulting him?" and criticising Vance's lack of "decency and empathy". *Jonathan concludes "I think J.D. Vance is a horrible human being. End of that."

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Liz Cheney criticises JD Vance for "ignorance and ahistorical BS"; quotes Reagan on freedom; "sod off"

🎦 37:27-38:25⏩
*Jonathan reports on Liz Cheney's criticism of JD Vance's rant. *Cheney, a former Republican senator, calls Vance's statement "ignorance and ahistorical BS". *She accuses Vance and Trump of "surrendering to a KGB butcher, abandoning the cause of freedom and destroying the security of America and her allies". *Cheney advises Vance to "spend some time actually studying history" and quotes Ronald Reagan on the fragility of freedom, emphasizing it must be "fought for and defended constantly by each generation". *Jonathan endorses Cheney's criticism and concludes "Take that on board, J.D. Vance. And in the meantime, just sod off."

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Ukraine's battlefield position; Moscow and Washington misunderstand Ukraine's battlefield strength; no Ukrainian collapse

🎦 38:30-39:19⏩
*Jonathan discusses a statement from Jimmy Rushton who argues that Moscow and Washington "misunderstood exactly how well the Ukrainians have done to degrade the Russians." *Rushton believes they falsely assume Ukraine's battlefield position is so dire that Kyiv would accept any peace terms. *He states "Ukraine can and will continue to fight if presented with unacceptable terms, with or without US support." *Rushton, who recently visited the front lines, reports that while the situation is "difficult", there is "no sign of Ukrainian collapse" and Russian attacks have "significantly slowed".

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Zelensky confirms Ukraine won't accept ultimatums; but Ukraine pressured to accept US "extortion deal"

🎦 39:19-39:38⏩
*Jonathan presents a statement from Zelensky confirming Ukraine's position: "We didn't accept ultimatums in 2022, when the situation was much more serious and nobody was helping us. And I have no intention of accepting any ultimatums now." *Despite this, Jonathan notes the "reality is, of course, that Ukraine are going to be pressured very much into accepting this extortion deal with the United States."

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McFaul: Ukrainians shocked by Rubio and Walz appointments; Trump as action officer for Ukraine policy, pro-Putin

🎦 39:38-40:02⏩
*Michael McFaul, former US ambassador to Russia, reports that Ukrainians he knows were initially "very excited" about the appointments of Rubio and Walz (likely referring to potential Trump administration figures). *However, they are now in "complete shock" due to the perceived shift in US policy. *McFaul states "So far, it appears that the action officer for Ukraine policy is Trump and no one else. And that really means we have a pro-Putin policy and nothing else." *This indicates a perception that US policy is now directly controlled by Trump and is essentially pro-Putin.

Trump envoy Witkoff "chummy" with Putin; no wariness; US State Dept promises economic deals with Russia

🎦 40:02-40:28⏩
*Jonathan discusses Trump's special envoy, Stephen Witkoff, a billionaire with no relevant expertise. *Witkoff stated he spent "a lot of time with Putin" during a "great trip to Moscow, talking and developing a friendly relationship with him." *Jonathan highlights the lack of wariness or critical perspective in Witkoff's description of Putin, contrasting it with the necessary caution when dealing with a dictator. *He mentions the US State Department is already "promising to reward Russia with economic deals."

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US promising economic deals with Russia post-peace deal; natural resource cooperation; "ex ante surrender"

🎦 40:29-41:39⏩
*Jonathan elaborates on the US promise of economic deals with Russia, quoting an official statement about laying "the groundwork for future cooperation on matters of mutual geopolitical interest and historic economic and investment opportunities" after a Ukraine peace deal. *This includes potential cooperation on natural resources and access to Arctic deposits. *Edward Hunter Christie describes this as an "ex ante surrender, a fake and unjust peace, unacceptable and total dishonor for the US" with "no mention of reparations or punishment" for Russia. *Jonathan emphasizes that the US focus is on "economic deals" and opportunities arising from a peace deal, not on justice for Ukraine.

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Russia proposes US companies return to energy sector, Arctic deposits; Putin wants Western companies back

🎦 41:39-42:22⏩
*News is circulating that Russia has proposed the return of US companies to its energy sector, including access to Arctic deposits, as a key topic in the Riyadh negotiations. *A Russian outlet, Moscow Times, quotes Russian sources saying Russia "supposes that American oil companies will come back to the country." *Kirill Dmitriev, head of Russia's direct investment fund and a negotiator in Saudi Arabia, confirmed Russia's interest in "joint projects with the US in the Arctic." *Jonathan highlights Putin's desire for Western companies to return to Russia, indicating sanctions are hurting Russia despite Putin's public stance.

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US and Russia not caring about Ukraine's outcomes; only economic gains

🎦 42:23-42:34⏩
*Jonathan concludes that neither the US nor Russia "care about Ukraine's outcomes" in these negotiations. *Their primary concern is "just how much they can make out of it" economically. *He paints a cynical picture of the US and Russia using Ukraine as a pawn in a larger game focused on economic gain and geopolitical advantage.

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US "rare earths deal" as condition for rescuing US-Ukraine relationship; "mafia shakedown"; "shit sandwich"

🎦 42:35-43:04⏩
*Jonathan reports that Ukraine's allies in Washington believe Zelensky can "rescue his relationship with Trump" by accepting the US proposed "rare earths deal." *Axios reports that US insistence on claiming a share of Ukraine's mineral rights is likened to a "mafia shakedown" by critics, who point out Ukraine would lose land and mineral rights for little return. *A Trump administration official reportedly acknowledged it's a "shit sandwich" for Ukraine.

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Trump's extortion of Ukraine: minerals for support; sanctions leverage; Ukraine caught between Russia and US

🎦 43:05-43:42⏩
*Jonathan emphasizes the coercive nature of the US proposal: Ukraine "is going to have to eat it because Trump has made clear that this is no longer our problem. Trump's like, I don't really care about Ukraine. I want your minerals. You need to eat this shit sandwich." *The US is using the leverage of continued sanctions on Russia and potential military support to extort Ukraine into signing the minerals deal. *He concludes that the US is "trying to extort Ukraine" and that Ukraine is caught between pressure from both Russia militarily and the US economically and politically.

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Shashank Joshi: US predatory approach; imagine Article 5 contingency response; exploitation

🎦 43:43-44:22⏩
*Shashank Joshi comments on this situation, noting White House officials have told Ukraine to stop criticising Trump and sign the mineral deal, calling failure to do so "unacceptable". *Joshi raises concerns about how a Trump administration would respond to an Article 5 contingency, suggesting it would likely be "similarly predatory and exploitative." *He implies that even in a NATO Article 5 scenario, the US might exploit an ally's vulnerability for economic gain.

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John Ridge: US expects Ukraine to reject minerals deal to label Zelensky "ungrateful beggar" and cut loose

🎦 44:47-45:03⏩
*John Ridge suggests a different interpretation: the US may not even intend for Ukraine to sign the mineral deal. *His "working thesis" is that the Trump administration expects Ukraine to reject the deal, allowing them to label Zelensky an "ungrateful beggar" and then "cut Ukraine loose." *This theory suggests the deal is a pretext for abandoning Ukraine, regardless of whether it's accepted or rejected.

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Trump official on Zelensky as "theatre kid"; contemptuous view; US told Zelensky to flee at war start

🎦 45:04-46:02⏩
*Michael Weiss reports on an anonymous Trump White House official's contemptuous view of Zelensky, referring to him as a "theatre kid" who "thinks he's a character he plays on TV." *The official dismisses Zelensky's leadership as mere "stage play or simulacrum" understood only by those who have never risked anything. *This is described as "dripping with contempt" for Zelensky, especially considering the US initially expected Ukraine to fall quickly and even advised Zelensky to go into exile in Poland at the start of the war. *The official is quoted saying Zelensky is a "stage actor" who made the "mistake of theatre kids" and needs to "exit stage right with all the drama." They conclude "We need to get rid of Zelensky."

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Trump's historical pro-Russia stance: 1987 anti-NATO ads, 2008 Russian money; compromised by Russia

🎦 46:02-47:37⏩
*Jonathan revisits Trump's historical pro-Russia stance, recalling his 1987 newspaper ads criticising NATO after returning from Moscow. *He points to the 2008 sale of a mansion to a Russian individual for an inflated price (90-something million, 2.32 times the value), suggesting this was a payment linked to Trump's near bankruptcy. *He argues that these instances, combined with current actions, indicate Trump is "compromised by Russia," stating "anyone that denies it needs to deal with the data."

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KGB recruitment claim; former KGB head claims 1987 KGB recruitment of Trump codenamed "Krasnov"; married Russian

🎦 47:38-47:55⏩
*Jonathan shares a claim from Alnoa Musayev, a former KGB head, who states that in 1987, the KGB's 6th department (responsible for recruiting spies and businessmen) recruited a 40-year-old Donald Trump, codenamed "Krasnov". *Musayev's statement details the KGB's focus on recruiting businessmen from capitalist countries and claims Trump was recruited in that year. *Jonathan notes that Trump later married a Russian woman, further fueling speculation about Russian influence.

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US negotiator Posobiec's pro-Nazi and pro-Russian views; "insane"

🎦 47:56-48:48⏩
*Jonathan highlights the appointment of Jack Posobiec to the US negotiating team with Ukraine, both in Kyiv and Munich. *Posobiec is described as "far-right" and someone who has "shared pro-Nazi comments" for years and quoted Russian fascist Alexander Dugin saying "Ukraine must be annexed by Russia." *Jonathan finds it "insane" that someone with such views is part of the US negotiating team dealing with Ukraine, highlighting the deeply concerning nature of US representation in these talks.

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Chris Murphy criticises Trump's appointments: Hegseth (DOD), Witkoff (Putin talks), Posobiec (negotiations); "jokers"

🎦 48:50-50:23⏩
*Jonathan presents criticism from Chris Murphy regarding Trump's appointments to key positions. *Murphy criticises the appointment of Pete Hegseth, a Fox News weekend anchor, to head the Department of Defense, suggesting it's based solely on Trump watching Fox News. *He also criticises Stephen Witkoff's lack of experience in negotiating with Putin and Jack Posobiec's inclusion in Ukraine negotiations. *Murphy argues these appointments are "badly mismanaging" negotiations and will lead to a settlement that endangers Americans in the long run. *Jonathan agrees, describing these appointees as "jokers being put into insanely important positions" due to Trump's whims.

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Kash Patel as FBI director and retribution; US "eating itself"

🎦 50:24-50:37⏩
*Jonathan mentions Kash Patel's appointment as FBI director, raising concerns about potential retribution against Trump's opponents. *He states "The United States is going to eat itself. It is eating itself." highlighting the internal divisions and self-destructive trajectory of the US political system.

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Republican Senator Tillis contrasts with Trump on Putin; calls Putin liar, murderer, torturer

🎦 50:37-52:07⏩
*Jonathan highlights a contrasting voice: Republican Senator Tom Tillis, who has just returned from Ukraine. *Tillis delivered a speech on the Senate floor, explicitly mentioning Trump and contrasting their positions on Russia and Putin. *Tillis calls Putin "a liar, a murderer, and a man responsible for ordering the systematic torture, kidnapping, and rape of innocent civilians" and urges people to "believe me, because the evidence is mile high." *Despite this strong condemnation of Putin, Tillis states "I support President Trump," creating an apparent contradiction in his stance.

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Trump's 150% tariff on BRICS dollar alternatives; unaware of BRICS membership

🎦 52:08-52:23⏩
*Jonathan shifts to discussing Trump's economic policies, mentioning Trump's threat of a "150% tariff" on "all BRICS countries" for any attempt to create alternatives to the US dollar. *He points out Trump's apparent lack of knowledge about BRICS, noting he mistakenly thought Spain was a member. *This highlights Trump's potentially uninformed and impulsive policy pronouncements.

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Trump's Canada annexation idea; trade complaints; naive understanding

🎦 52:23-53:56⏩
*Trump is reported to be "still going on about taking Canada", suggesting annexing it into the US, potentially "militarily, economically". *Trump claims he'll let Canada keep its anthem if it joins the US and says "Canada has been very bad to us on trade" and "Canada is going to have to start paying up." *Jonathan finds Trump's understanding of trade naive, pointing out that trade deficits are not necessarily detrimental and reflect consumer demand.

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Trump's Canada trade deficit misunderstanding as "subsidies"; "absolute dingbat"

🎦 53:56-54:25⏩
*Jonathan continues to critique Trump's economic understanding, highlighting Trump's claim that Canada receives "$200 billion in subsidies" which Jonathan corrects as a "trade deficit". *He strongly criticises Trump's economic ignorance, calling him an "absolute dingbat" and "What an idiot."

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White House Press Sec on Canada annexation; "deeply irresponsible"; Jonathan hopes it backfires

🎦 54:26-54:57⏩
*Jonathan plays a clip of White House Press Secretary Caroline Leavitt joking about annexing Canada, referring to it as the "soon-to-be 51st state" in relation to a sports game. *Jonathan condemns this as "deeply irresponsible" and "disgusting". *He expresses hope that this stance will "bite you on the arse" and backfire on the US administration due to its irresponsible nature.

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Trump's attorney general warns opponents to "look out"; Kash Patel FBI director "retributive"

🎦 54:59-55:42⏩
*Jonathan presents a clip of Trump's Attorney General warning Americans who oppose Trump to "better look out" because "Kash Patel was just confirmed as FBI director." *The Attorney General indicates Patel's appointment will be "retributive," implying political opponents will be targeted. *Jonathan reiterates the warning, "That is deeply worrying, but you better look out. It will be retributive."

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Authoritarian direction of US; fascist rhetoric; attack on judges; Shashank Joshi

🎦 55:43-55:53⏩
*Shashank Joshi is quoted stating "America is quite obviously moving in an authoritarian direction." *Jonathan lists signs of this trend: "Fascist rhetoric. Attack on judges."

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Trump's third term prospect; CPAC "third term project"; GOP authoritarian

🎦 55:53-56:37⏩
*Jonathan reports that Trump "again raised the prospect of serving for an unconstitutional third term." *He notes Trump "keeps joking about it" and that at CPAC, "activists" were announcing "the third-term project," described as an "official effort". *This project aims to "end the 22nd Amendment," which limits presidents to two terms. *Jonathan concludes "There's no need to mince words. The GOP is authoritarian here. They want a dictator."

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Third term project campaign lead at CPAC; Trump jokes about ruling for life; FBI director aiding retribution

🎦 56:37-57:19⏩
*Jonathan plays a clip of Shane Trejo, identified as "campaign lead for the third-term project" at CPAC. *He highlights Trump calling himself a "king" and the "third-term project" as evidence of authoritarian tendencies. *He mentions Trump "keeps joking about ruling for three terms. It will be something that will come about." *He expresses concern that Kash Patel as FBI director will aid this authoritarian shift by seeking "retribution on all those who oppose Trump" and potentially targeting people who were "just doing the right thing in the previous administration."

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Musk's chainsaw and civil servant layoffs; "idiocracy"; Mehdi Hassan comment; ketamine suggestion

🎦 57:20-57:41⏩
*Jonathan references Mehdi Hassan's comment that "we leave in an idiocracy" as Elon Musk is shown with a chainsaw after massive layoffs of civil servants, including healthcare and national security workers. *Musk is seen "walking around with a big chainsaw" and giving interviews that "doesn't make much sense." *Jonathan speculates, "I think he's probably on ketamine or something."

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House GOP plan to slash Medicaid and SNAP; increase deficit for billionaire tax cuts; taking from poor

🎦 57:42-58:37⏩
*Jonathan discusses a House GOP plan endorsed by Trump that is "poised to slash Medicaid" by 10% and SNAP (Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program) by around 20%. *This plan is projected to increase deficits by $2.8 trillion. *He explains that while Republicans sometimes oppose raising the debt ceiling, MAGA Republicans want to raise it to accommodate tax cuts for "billionaire friends" which will create the deficit. *The cuts to Medicaid and SNAP are intended to "pay for that", effectively "giving money to the rich and taking it from the poor."

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Tax cuts and deficit; slashing social programs to compensate; "absolute shocker"

🎦 58:38-01:00⏩
*Jonathan details the impact of the GOP plan: "tax cuts are going to basically transfer into a big deficit there." *He summarises the plan as involving "tax cuts" and "reductions to energy and commerce, education, workforce, agriculture, oversight, and others," leading to "net deficit additions." *He concludes "It's just an absolute shocker."

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Fascist trajectory of US: Musk "Nazi salute", Trump "ethnic cleansing", Bannon "Hitlergruß"; "Nazism has taken over GOP"

🎦 01:00-01:00:25⏩
*Jonathan summarises the "fascist trajectory of the U.S. administration" pointing to: *Elon Musk "gave a Nazi salute". *Trump "advocates ethnic cleansing". *Steve Bannon performing a "Hitlergruß" (Hitler salute) at CPAC. *He quotes Nick Lowes saying "It's hard to deny the fascist trajectory of the U.S. administration." *He plays a clip of Steve Bannon performing the salute on stage at CPAC after calling for Trump to be "president for life" (ending the 22nd Amendment). *Jonathan concludes "Nazism has officially taken over the GOP."

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Musk dismantling Twitter Community Notes due to fact-checks; "gamed by governments"; "dictatorship on Twitter"

🎦 01:00:25-01:02:23⏩
*Jonathan reports that Elon Musk is "dismantling Twitter's best featured community notes" which is a community-based fact-checking system. *Musk claims "Community Notes is increasingly being gamed by governments and legacy media" without providing evidence. *Jonathan suggests the real reason is that Community Notes are "correcting Russian propaganda" and fact-checking Musk himself, particularly on Zelensky's approval ratings. *He quotes Anne Applebaum calling this "a new level of madness" and Cheyenne Sardarizadeh highlighting that the "entire point of the community note system is that it's independent of the personal views of the people running this platform." *Jonathan concludes "Well, it just becomes a dictatorship. A dictatorship on Twitter."

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Conservative National Review slams Trump "sweetheart deal for Moscow" and Ukraine attacks; moral inversion

🎦 01:02:24-01:03:30⏩
*Jonathan concludes with a "good news" item: The editorial board of the conservative National Review "slams Donald Trump over his, quote, 'sweetheart deal for Moscow' and his attacks against Ukraine." *The National Review is quoted saying "Ukraine didn't fire Russian missiles at itself or direct a Russian-armed column at its own capital in 2022." and "There's moral equivalence, and then there's a total moral inversion." *The editorial argues that while Ukraine is not perfect, it is "a much more committed democracy and the rule of law than is Russia" and criticises Trump for not calling Putin a dictator while accusing Zelensky of being one. *Jonathan praises this as "such a brilliant paragraph" and "really well said by the National Review."

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Wrap up and charity appeal

🎦 01:03:30-01:04:50⏩
*Jonathan concludes the video, stating "Right, that's enough from me. Goodness me, I need a break now." *He promotes Jigar's Paw, a charity in Lviv, Ukraine, and announces a new campaign to raise money for five Mavic 3T drones. *He reports that $751 has already been raised and thanks donors, encouraging viewers to help hit the target. *He acknowledges upcoming campaigns and appreciates any donations or shares to help support Ukraine. *He thanks viewers for watching and signs off.

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