Ukraine War Update NEWS: Pt 1 - Overnight & Other News
Table of Contents 📖
"Russia only brings death."
Hello Team
🎦 00:00-00:25⏩
Jonathan welcomes everyone to the channel and mentions he has a talk to give tonight on the Ukraine War in Andover, Hampshire.
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🪦 DISCLAIMER FOR GENERAL STAFF LOSSES DATA
- These are real people with real lives and real families who love them. Don’t let the numbers sap your humanity.
- These numbers probably aren’t accurate but they’re the best we have and we don’t need them to be accurate to be indicative of patterns of activity.
- All losses are estimates. Losses cannot be counted with accuracy because of the conditions on the ground.
- Both sides would see it to be of their advantage to minimize their own losses maximize the other side’s losses.
- Neither side releases their losses but we have enough transparency from the Ukrainian side to have confidence in they are indicative.
- Personnel losses are hard to count. If a soldier gets injured, heals up, and returns to the front line only to get injured again, is that one loss or two? Also, how to deal with losses from PMC’s or soldiers fighting with RF from occupied territories?
- Equipment losses are hard to count. If an AA complex involves several parts and one part gets disabled, is that a loss, or a fraction of a loss? If a tank gets disabled, repaired, back into the fight, then disabled again, is that one lost tank or two?
- All recorded losses are vulnerable to multiple reporting. We have already seen numerous cases of multiple drones in the air reporting the same loss from different angles as multiple engagements.
- Losses are not always reported on the same day they occurred. It is frequent that drone losses are reported at least 24 hours after other terrestrial equipment losses. Certain losses may not be reported for days or weeks for military intelligence reasons.
Russian losses for the past 24 hours
🎦 00:25-04:51⏩
Jonathan discusses the latest figures from the Ukrainian General Staff, noting significant losses for the Russians, particularly the high number of tanks. He uses his jam analogy to illustrate how Russia might be "running out" of equipment even though they are still using it. He points out that the rate at which they are using equipment suggests they can't both be stockpiling and attacking effectively. He notes a recent attack where the Russians committed 16-19 vehicles and suffered heavy losses, highlighting that they rarely use this many vehicles in a single attack. Jonathan emphasises the importance of taking out Russian artillery and air defense systems - a tactic the Ukrainians have successfully employed, resulting in high attrition rates.
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Oryx/Andrew Perpetua visually confirmed Russian losses
🎦 04:51-08:34⏩
Jonathan moves on to visually confirmed losses reported by Andrew Perpetua (who runs the Oryx blog that tracks visually confirmed military equipment losses). Jonathan notes the extremely high number of Russian equipment losses shown on the list (although acknowledges this is a day behind) and describes how Andrew and his team try to overcome bias by including visually confirmed losses from both Ukrainian and Russian sources, highlighting that the Russians tend to publish all sorts of material which helps. He provides an anecdote of a recent video he saw where the Russians had filmed a drone strike - although the drone had landed harmlessly 10 metres in front of its intended target, highlighting how the Russians tend to publish everything. Jonathan points out that this approach might be an attempt to combat the perception that Ukrainian drones are more successful. Jonathan highlights how, according to Andrew's data, Ukrainian drone strikes are twice as effective as Russian ones (using a ratio of visually confirmed hits to visually confirmed losses). He goes on to explain that mines are likely to be behind a lot of the Russian losses too, noting that a high proportion of the equipment on the list has been abandoned, often after hitting mines.
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Oryx/Andrew Perpetua visually confirmed Ukrainian losses
🎦 08:34-12:34⏩
Moving on to Ukrainian losses, Jonathan notes that these are significantly less than Russian ones. He highlights the two damaged M1 Abrams, pointing out that this represents a significant proportion of the total number sent to Ukraine (31) and how we can expect to see more and more Western equipment appearing on the Ukrainian losses list as they use up their old legacy equipment. He points out how this is all relative - whilst better than the equipment the Russians are using, Ukraine are still losing Western equipment. Jonathan then expresses his surprise at the high number of Russian tanks that have been destroyed (20) and infantry fighting vehicles (20), again highlighting this is equipment that forms the backbone of the Russian military.
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Analysis of Russian BMP stocks and Western military aid to Ukraine
🎦 12:34-18:06⏩
Jonathan talks about the work of Twitter user John P who analyses satellite imagery to track equipment levels, specifically Russian BMP stocks, and explains how this is done. He shares John P's findings - that based on analysis of satellite imagery from 6 months ago, Russia had approximately 1,200 BMPs and BRM-1s left. Jonathan goes on to explain that this figure is likely to mainly consist of BMP-1s - the oldest and least capable variant, and how this is because Russia will logically have sent their best and easiest to repair BMPs to Ukraine first. Jonathan highlights that this is not a good sign for Russia - they started with thousands of BMPs and now only have a fraction left, indicating they are running out. Jonathan then discusses Western military aid to Ukraine - how Ukraine is receiving thousands of armoured vehicles (6-7,000) and 50,000 drones from the West. He reinforces the point that whilst not all of the equipment from the West is new, it is still better than the equipment the Russians are using, and emphasises the point that Ukraine is also now starting to manufacture its own armoured vehicles and drones domestically. Jonathan concludes that Ukraine is in a far stronger position than Russia - they are receiving significant military aid and are successfully producing their own equipment whereas Russia is struggling to replace losses. He uses the analogy of a boxing match - Ukraine senses Russia is on the ropes and now is the time to go in for the killer blow.
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Ukrainian drone strike inside Russia
🎦 18:06-20:18⏩
Jonathan talks about a recent Ukrainian drone strike inside Russia, sharing footage showing a drone striking a Russian van (that Jonathan refers to as a Scooby Doo van). He notes that this kind of strike is happening regularly now and that Ukrainian FPV drones have a range of 20km. Jonathan highlights that Ukraine appears to have stepped up attacks on Russian staging points just north of the border, in and around Belgorod, as Russia prepares for a new offensive.
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Russian missile strike inside Ukraine
🎦 20:18-21:01⏩
Jonathan then shares footage of a Russian missile strike inside Ukraine, thought to be targeting a US-supplied M270 MLRS system, although it is unclear what has been hit.
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Suspected sabotage attack on Russian military officer's car
🎦 21:01-22:14⏩
Jonathan talks about a suspected sabotage attack on the car of a Russian military officer, Vadim Sobesky, who was apparently unhurt despite his car exploding. Jonathan notes that there have been similar incidents recently, speculating that this might be because Ukrainians are finding it easier to bribe Russians as the war takes its toll, and suggesting that Ukraine might wish to capitalise on this.
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European allies pressure US to relax restrictions on use of ATACMS
🎦 22:14-23:11⏩
Jonathan reports that European allies are pressuring the US to relax restrictions on the use of ATACMS, long range missiles that Ukraine wants to use to strike deeper into Russian territory. He highlights the risk of escalation but counters this by suggesting that given Russia's only real option left is nuclear weapons (which he doesn't believe they will use) there is little to lose, concluding that now is a good time for the US to allow the Ukrainians to use ATACMS.
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Ukrainian drone attack on Russian airbase
🎦 23:11-25:45⏩
Jonathan discusses the recent Ukrainian drone attack on Morozovsk airbase (in Russia) which he says was hit by 70 drones, analysing before and after satellite imagery of the base. There is uncertainty as to what damage was inflicted - it is possible that up to 7 SU-34 fighter jets (the aircraft responsible for the majority of the Russian glide bomb attacks on Ukrainian positions) were damaged, some possibly beyond repair. Jonathan expresses surprise at the level of damage inflicted given that the airbase is in Rostov and relatively close to the Ukrainian border and therefore likely to be well defended. He speculates that Ukraine might launch a follow-up attack on the base to finish off any damaged aircraft.
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Ukrainian shelling of Russian gas trans-shipment point
🎦 25:45-26:41⏩
Jonathan reports that Ukraine has shelled the last remaining operational Russian gas trans-shipment point supplying gas to Europe, although there is no visual confirmation of this.
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Other overnight incidents
🎦 26:41-28:05⏩
Jonathan talks about a number of other incidents from overnight, including:
- Reports that something is burning in Starobesheve, thought to be an air defence site that Russia was using to shoot down Storm Shadow missiles.
- The city of Kamensk-Shaktinsky in the Rostov region was hit by a Ukrainian drone.
- Firefighters have extinguished a large fire at an oil depot in Kyiv that had been burning for two days.
Ukrainian counter-attack in Vovchansk and Russian morale
🎦 28:05-31:59⏩
Jonathan discusses a successful Ukrainian counter-attack in the Vovchansk area which has resulted in a group of Russian soldiers being trapped. Jonathan describes how they are stuck with no way out and highlights that the Russians have been unable to establish a pontoon bridge to extract them. He likens this to the situation in Mariupol, describing the situation as an operational disaster for the Russians, and points out that this assessment is becoming more accurate by the day. Jonathan shares Andrew Perpetua's analysis of the situation - that the Ukrainian counterattacks have been more successful than people realise and that the full extent of the success has been kept quiet for operational security reasons. He goes on to share more of Andrew's analysis - that the morale of Ukrainian forces is the highest it has been since prior to last Summer's counter-offensive (although notes there are some disparities, with troops fighting in other areas, e.g. around Chasiv Yar, feeling somewhat overlooked and that their morale is suffering)
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Russian mobilisation problems
🎦 31:59-34:27⏩
Jonathan discusses problems with Russian mobilisation efforts. He reports that a group of Russian soldiers are demanding an explanation as to why they are being forced to fight in Ukraine, claiming they were kidnapped, are medically unfit or psychologically unfit for service. Jonathan notes how Russia is increasingly relying on foreign fighters from countries such as Nepal, India, Pakistan, Cuba and the Cape Verde Islands in an attempt to reduce the impact of casualties on morale back home. He points out how this smacks of desperation, highlighting that the fact Russia is having to resort to such measures suggests that things are not going well. Jonathan argues that Russia is trapped in a dilemma - they need to announce a mass mobilisation but doing so would be politically and economically damaging, forcing them to rely on covert mobilisation which is proving insufficient.
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Russian use of unguided bombs
🎦 34:27-34:43⏩
Jonathan reports that Russia is dropping 3,200-3,500 unguided bombs per month on Ukraine (approximately 100 per day) in an attempt to terrorise the civilian population into fleeing.
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US Court blocks sale of Russian Oligarch's superyacht
🎦 34:43-35:33⏩
Jonathan expresses his frustration at a US court decision to block the sale of a Russian Oligarch's superyacht, the 106 metre "Amadea" which was seized by the US Government. He notes that the proceeds from the sale of the yacht were to be given to Ukraine and that the US taxpayer is currently spending $740,000 per month on maintenance and insurance costs.
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Euro 2024 Football Championships
🎦 35:33-36:49⏩
Jonathan talks about the start of the Euro 2024 football championships and how it reminds him of when Donetsk (now occupied by Russia) hosted matches during the Euro 2012 championships. He notes the irony, pointing out that Donetsk is now a ruin following the Russian invasion and occupation, highlighting how Russia brings death and destruction.
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The human cost of the war in Ukraine
🎦 36:49-39:05⏩
Jonathan shares the story of a Russian woman living near Vovchansk whose house was destroyed in a Russian bombing raid, highlighting the human cost of the war and how people are losing their homes and livelihoods. He concludes by sharing a picture of a young Ukrainian girl who is smiling despite the hardships she has endured.
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Wrap up
🎦 39:05-39:12⏩
Jonathan signs off, reminding everyone that behind all the statistics and equipment losses are real people whose lives have been ripped apart by the war.
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