Ukraine Conflict: Full Frontline Update
Table of Contents 📖
"The value they have is, you know, stopping the Russians moving further to the west and then eventually on to Kurovo."
Hello Team
🎦 00:00-01:19⏩
Jonathan welcomes viewers to another frontline update, checking if the picture quality is better after recent adjustments. He also reminds viewers to check out the map key if unfamiliar with his maps.
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📍 FRONT-LINE UPDATE -🗺️ MAP LEGEND
Northeast Sector and ISW Report
🎦 01:19-02:31⏩
Jonathan discusses Russian claims of captured positions near Synkivka and advances southwest and west of Kreminna, noting that ISW hasn't visually confirmed these claims. He compares this information with insights from Suriat Maps and Andrew Perpetua, highlighting discrepancies and potential Ukrainian pushbacks in the area.
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Novoselivske Rejig
🎦 02:31-03:30⏩
Jonathan points out a map "rejig" in the Novoselivske area, acknowledging Russian control for some time. He briefly mentions his busy schedule, including a live stream, article writing, and book editing (a new edition about OCD!).
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Svatove Area Analysis
🎦 03:30-04:08⏩
Jonathan analyzes the Svatove area, comparing ISW's lack of confirmation of Russian gains with Andrew Perpetua's assessment of Russian control. He mentions Suriat Maps' more generous mapping for Russian presence and acknowledges a stalemate in the region.
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Bakhmut Front Stalemate
🎦 04:08-05:52⏩
Jonathan observes a significant reduction in ISW reporting on Bakhmut, indicating a positional stalemate. He attributes this to the worsening weather conditions impacting drone usage and maneuverability. Despite this, he notes a small Russian advance near Klishchiivka, corroborated by various map sources.
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Avdiivka: Russian Assaults and Airstrikes
🎦 05:52-07:12⏩
Before discussing Avdiivka, Jonathan circles back to mention War Monitor's report of Ukrainian forces repelling three large-scale Russian assaults in the area. Shifting to Avdiivka, he highlights ISW's report on ongoing Russian assaults from all directions and increased airstrikes after a period of reduced activity.
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Avdiivka: Ukrainian Gains and Dacha Area
🎦 07:12-08:21⏩
Jonathan examines map details around Avdiivka, suggesting potential Ukrainian counterattacks or map corrections in the southern areas near the industrial zone. He cites No Report's analysis of the Dacha area, confirming Russian territorial gains but highlighting the area remains a grey zone.
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Pervomaisky: Russian Advances and Analysis
🎦 08:21-09:23⏩
Jonathan analyzes the Pervomaisky area, acknowledging Russian advances south of the town. He compares map data from various sources, confirming the Russian gains and emphasizing the town's proximity to Pisky. Despite this, he downplays the strategic significance of these gains.
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Marinka and Novomokalivka: ISW Geolocation Analysis
🎦 09:23-11:24⏩
Jonathan shifts focus to Marinka and Novomokalivka, referencing ISW's report of marginal Russian advances in both locations. He analyzes geolocated footage of Ukrainian drone strikes on Russian positions within Marinka's ruins, confirming recent Russian gains in the northern agricultural areas.
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Novomokalivka: Russian Advance Towards Kurovo
🎦 11:24-12:39⏩
Continuing with Novomokalivka, Jonathan cites ISW's report of Russian attempts to advance towards Hryhorivka, aiming to capture Kurovo. He highlights the strategic importance of these towns as buffers, preventing Russian westward movement and control of key roads. He emphasizes the domino effect of territorial losses in this area.
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Novomokalivka: Ukrainian Counteroffensive and Strategic Significance
🎦 12:39-15:07⏩
Jonathan analyzes map discrepancies around Novomokalivka, noting Suriat Maps' depiction of Ukrainian forces pushing back Russian troops from the cemetery and industrial area. He emphasizes the strategic importance of Novomokalivka in preventing Russian control of key roads leading to Vuhledar and potentially impacting Ukrainian operations in Mariupol and Volnovakha.
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Geolocation Limitations and Novomokalivka Pushback
🎦 15:07-17:10⏩
Jonathan discusses the limitations of geolocation data, using ISW's analysis of Russian advances near Novomokalivka as an example. He compares this with Suriat Maps' and Deep State Maps' portrayal of a significant Ukrainian counterattack, pushing Russian forces back. He emphasizes the fluid nature of the frontline and the need for caution when interpreting geolocation data.
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Western Zaporizhzhia and Drone Warfare
🎦 17:10-18:19⏩
Jonathan moves on to Western Zaporizhzhia, noting a lack of significant frontline changes and only positional fighting reported by ISW. He highlights Russian complaints about Ukrainian drone effectiveness, drawing parallels with his recent discussions about drone warfare with "Tochny." He suggests potential Russian vulnerabilities to drones in specific areas like Robotyne.
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Krinichna: Continued Russian Losses and Ukrainian Defense
🎦 18:19-19:38⏩
Jonathan focuses on Krinichna, referencing footage of continued Russian losses in the area. He cites "Special Person Cat's" report of five destroyed or damaged Russian tanks during a recent attack. He acknowledges the ongoing Russian attempts to dislodge Ukrainian forces from their remaining bridgehead, highlighting the high cost in equipment for the Russians.
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Wrap up
🎦 19:38-19:55⏩
Jonathan thanks viewers for watching, encouraging likes, subscriptions, and participation in the live chat later that day. He mentions a potential delay due to ice skating with his son and bids farewell.
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