Ukraine War Update NEWS (20231202a): Pt 1 - Overnight & Other News
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This summary has been produced automatically by an AI Large Language Model (LLM) without any human intervention. Whilst every effort has been made to prompt the LLM to produce accurate output, there may be inconsistencies, inaccuracies or hallucinations!
Table of Contents 📖
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"Don't come on my threads and splurge your nonsense about how wonderful Putin is. He's not only a moral monster, he's actually a very bad politician for domestic needs."
Hello Team!
Jonathan mentions:
- It's freezing outside and he has a football match to go to
- There's less news to report as it's early on a Saturday morning
🪦 DISCLAIMER FOR GENERAL STAFF LOSSES DATA
- These are real people with real lives and real families who love them. Don’t let the numbers sap your humanity.
- These numbers probably aren’t accurate but they’re the best we have and we don’t need them to be accurate to be indicative of patterns of activity.
- All losses are estimates. Losses cannot be counted with accuracy because of the conditions on the ground.
- Both sides would see it to be of their advantage to minimize their own losses maximize the other side’s losses.
- Neither side releases their losses but we have enough transparency from the Ukrainian side to have confidence in they are indicative.
- Personnel losses are hard to count. If a soldier gets injured, heals up, and returns to the front line only to get injured again, is that one loss or two? Also, how to deal with losses from PMC’s or soldiers fighting with RF from occupied territories?
- Equipment losses are hard to count. If an AA complex involves several parts and one part gets disabled, is that a loss, or a fraction of a loss? If a tank gets disabled, repaired, back into the fight, then disabled again, is that one lost tank or two?
- All recorded losses are vulnerable to multiple reporting. We have already seen numerous cases of multiple drones in the air reporting the same loss from different angles as multiple engagements.
- Losses are not always reported on the same day they occurred. It is frequent that drone losses are reported at least 24 hours after other terrestrial equipment losses. Certain losses may not be reported for days or weeks for military intelligence reasons.
Russian Losses
- Ukrainian General Staff report 1070 Russian personnel losses for the previous day
- 7 tanks, 13 APVs, 10 artillery systems, 1 MLRS, 18 drones, 1 cruise missile lost
- Jonathan notes these figures are hard to verify, especially for personnel and aircraft/helicopters
- Ukrainian losses are not reported but some areas are very attritional for them
Destroyed/Damaged Equipment
Per Andrew Perpetua's map, destroyed/damaged equipment from both sides on 1st Dec:
- Ukraine: 1 P18 radar, 1 Leopard 2A4 tank
- Russia: 2 MLRS, 7 tanks (mainly T-72s, 1 T-80, 1 T-90M), trucks, civilian vehicles, IFVs
- Overall a bad day for Russia, with a T-90M (their best tank) seen destroyed in a video
Drone/Missile Attacks
- 11 Shahed drones sent into Ukraine overnight, 10 were shot down
- 1 Kh-59 missile was shot down, unclear how many sent
- Blackout at Zaporizhzhia nuclear power plant due to break in power line, now running on diesel generators. Threat to radiation safety.
- Explosion heard in occupied Berdyansk
Russian Airline Issues
Two Russian planes had to make emergency landings on 1st Dec due to technical issues:
- Boeing 777 Moscow to Yuzhno-Sakhalinsk - pressure drop in landing gear wheel
- Kaliningrad to Moscow flight - unspecified technical malfunction
Suggests challenges facing Russian civil aviation industry due to sanctions
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Putin's Rule
Ilya Ponomarenko highlights poor living standards in Russia after 25 years of Putin's rule:
- 27% have no access to gas supplies
- 30% have no access to central sewage
- Ranked 137th on Corruption Perceptions Index
- 20.9m below poverty line
Yet Putin focuses on anti-LGBT rhetoric, war with NATO/Ukraine, Russian exceptionalism as key issues.
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Mariupol
Photos contrasting Mariupol at Christmas time before the war and now, showing utter devastation. Jonathan reminds viewers this is the reality of Russia's so-called "liberation".
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Crackdown on LGBT in Russia
Police raids took place on gay clubs in Moscow, with security forces searching for drugs and photographing visitors' passports. LGBT people are increasingly seen as an "extremist organization" rather than just a sexual preference.
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Mariinka
- Reports of Mariinka being captured by Russia may have been premature/a "farce"
- A Russian unit raised a flag on the edge of the town and claimed it was fully captured
- Russian blogger Roman Saponkov says the news, spread by Telegram channel MASH, was made up
- Jonathan cautions against wishful thinking/confirmation bias and believing unverified claims just because we want them to be true
- Mariinka has limited strategic value now as it's mostly rubble
Wrap up
Jonathan thanks viewers for watching and reminds them to share, subscribe and hit the notification bell. He will be back later with more updates.
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🤖❓ AI Debrief (post task) - anything the AI didn't understand
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🤖💭 AI Plan (pre task) - the AI's step by step thought process
Steps:
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