Ukraine War Upd. EXTRA: Baltics Strategy Analysis, Twitter Disinfo Rant, & PMC Hot Mess
Table of Contents 📖
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"Moderation is super important and we all do it."
Hello Team!
Jonathan welcomes viewers to another Ukraine War Update Extra video, providing additional insights and analysis to help understand the war in Ukraine better.
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Conflicts between Russian PMCs
- Gazprom's PMC unit Potok (Stream) is reported to have conflicts with Wagner PMC. Potok fighters complained to Putin that they were attached to Redut (Shoigu's PMC) and sent to replace Wagner's positions but were forced to retreat under Ukrainian pressure. Wagner threatened to shoot them for this.
- A Wagner mercenary talks aggressively about Potok, accusing them of cowardice and abandoning weapons and positions, calling them "Goluboy Potok" (Blue Stream), likely characterizing them as homosexuals.
- A captured mercenary from Potok explains that Gazprom created Potok, Fakhel (Torch), and Plamya (Flame) units. Potok was attached to Redut PMC, while the other units were transferred to the Ministry of Defence. He was wounded, requested evacuation, but was abandoned by his comrades. He crawled in the forest for four days before reaching Ukrainian positions.
Progozhin's criticism of Gazprom's PMCs
Progozhin, the head of Wagner PMC, is critical of Gazprom's initiative to create PMCs as he sees it as a threat to his own authority with Wagner. He openly talks about large companies creating PMCs to secure themselves in case things go sour in the Russian political landscape.
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Implications of competing PMCs
Jonathan questions whether the situation with competing military mercenary companies, along with the use of human wave tactics and sacrificing soldiers, indicates that everything is going well for the Russians or if it better supports the hypothesis that it's a complete mess. He believes it supports the latter and is indicative of the dire situation Russia is in.
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Twitter and disinformation
- Jonathan expresses his frustration with the direction Twitter is heading under Elon Musk's leadership. He argues that moderation is crucial for creating a space that is enjoyable for most people and that free speech absolutism primarily benefits those who want to insult others publicly.
- The removal of verification checks and the introduction of paid blue ticks have led to an increase in disinformation and propaganda from Russia and China.
- Twitter is a valuable tool for aggregating information from various sources, and changes that make it easier to spread disinformation are problematic, especially in the context of the ongoing hybrid war conducted by Russia.
Russian strategy documents for the Baltics
- Leaked Russian presidential administration strategy documents for Estonia, Latvia, and Lithuania show the Kremlin's intentions to thwart NATO military bases, weaken local democratic governments, expand Russian cultural and linguistic influence, and bolster pro-Kremlin political organisations.
- The documents, drafted in 2021, reveal that Russia's invasion of Ukraine has undermined almost every aspect of their plans.
- The strategies include propaganda of Russian culture, training Russian-speaking youth in Russian universities, working with agents of influence, and lobbying for Russian interests through economic ties and businessmen.
- The documents also aim to prevent the establishment of NATO military bases and weaken Western influence in various spheres.
- Estonia, Latvia, and Lithuania have taken steps to counter Russian influence, such as adopting language reforms, barring entry to Russian citizens, and shutting down banks used for Russian money laundering.
Parallels with Ukraine
The Russian strategy documents for the Baltics reveal an approach similar to what Russia has been attempting in Ukraine, minus the outright war. This includes using language and culture to claim the right to defend Russian speakers by military means, falsely rebranding national identity as the glorification of Nazism, and fostering separatist sentiments among Russian-speaking minorities.
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Wrap up
Jonathan thanks viewers for watching, appreciates the support from channel members, and encourages people to like, subscribe, and share the video.
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