Ukraine War Update NEWS: Pt 1 - Overnight & Other News
Table of Contents 📖
“These are real people under...underneath this rubble obviously they are, but it's just continual, and it's been two years of the Russians doing this and we become desensitized and it becomes normalized. And and it shouldn't and this we should still be shouting about this in in media outlets around the world.”
Hello Team
🎦 00:00-00:52⏩
Jonathan welcomes everyone to the channel. He's feeling a little under the weather, possibly due to a quiz night in Wallington Village Hall that he attended the previous evening with friends. He laments coming second, again.
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🪦 DISCLAIMER FOR GENERAL STAFF LOSSES DATA
- These are real people with real lives and real families who love them. Don’t let the numbers sap your humanity.
- These numbers probably aren’t accurate but they’re the best we have and we don’t need them to be accurate to be indicative of patterns of activity.
- All losses are estimates. Losses cannot be counted with accuracy because of the conditions on the ground.
- Both sides would see it to be of their advantage to minimize their own losses maximize the other side’s losses.
- Neither side releases their losses but we have enough transparency from the Ukrainian side to have confidence in they are indicative.
- Personnel losses are hard to count. If a soldier gets injured, heals up, and returns to the front line only to get injured again, is that one loss or two? Also, how to deal with losses from PMC’s or soldiers fighting with RF from occupied territories?
- Equipment losses are hard to count. If an AA complex involves several parts and one part gets disabled, is that a loss, or a fraction of a loss? If a tank gets disabled, repaired, back into the fight, then disabled again, is that one lost tank or two?
- All recorded losses are vulnerable to multiple reporting. We have already seen numerous cases of multiple drones in the air reporting the same loss from different angles as multiple engagements.
- Losses are not always reported on the same day they occurred. It is frequent that drone losses are reported at least 24 hours after other terrestrial equipment losses. Certain losses may not be reported for days or weeks for military intelligence reasons.
Russian Losses
🎦 00:52-02:07⏩
Jonathan reviews the figures from the Ukrainian General Staff regarding Russian losses. He notes that the number of Russian personnel lost is high at 1,080, and that the loss of 53 armoured personnel vehicles is significant. He also observes that the number of vehicles and fuel tanks lost is unusually low. Jonathan mentions that Andrew Perpetua has not published his usual loss statistics sheet, as the timings don't align with Jonathan’s video release schedule.
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Russian disinformation and evidence of a downed Russian Jet
🎦 02:07-05:20⏩
Jonathan highlights the surge in Russian troll activity on his threads, particularly following claims of downed Russian jets. He notes the stark contrast in Russian responses, where the sinking of a landing ship is met with silence, while the capture of Avdiivka is met with boasts. He emphasizes the importance of countering Russian disinformation, which quickly shifts from denial to distraction as soon as evidence emerges. Jonathan presents evidence of a downed Russian jet near the village of Diakove in Luhansk, potentially shot down by a German-donated Patriot battery. Thomas Tyner notes the battery commander’s satisfaction with the truck-mounted launchers, enabling a “shoot and scoot” tactic. This battery has been instrumental in taking down various Russian aircraft, including Mi-8 helicopters, Su-24s, Su-34s, and potentially two planes in the Mariupol/Black Sea area. The same battery might have been deployed to the Kherson region, targeting the northern Black Sea and Mariupol areas, as well as the Bryansk region within Russian territory. Further good news is that another Russian jet was shot down overnight, along with 12 drones and a guided missile.
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Heavy losses on both sides in Avdiivka
🎦 06:19-13:42⏩
Jonathan acknowledges heavy Ukrainian losses in Avdiivka, having spoken to Greg, who, along with Zhenya, has contacts within units operating there. They are losing experienced troops at concerning rates. However, Russian losses are also substantial. Jonathan emphasizes that even favourable kill ratios are difficult for Ukraine to sustain due to their limited manpower and lack of mobilization. The loss of each soldier is keenly felt. Jonathan highlights communication and decision-making issues during the Avdiivka withdrawal, potentially leading to avoidable casualties. He notes evidence, shared by Greg, suggesting Russian forces are executing wounded Ukrainian soldiers and prisoners of war. This is a war crime. Jonathan cites Russian milblogger Mertz, who reports significant Russian losses in Avdiivka, describing the situation as “painful doom posting." Mertz questions the narrative of “investment” in losses for greater gains, particularly given the high cost in terms of Russian lives. Mertz estimates 16,000 irretrievable Russian losses and 300 destroyed armoured vehicles in the battle for Novoselivs’ke, compared to 5,000-7,000 Ukrainian losses. He criticizes the Russian military for celebrating victories achieved at such a high cost, particularly as those who speak out against the losses face repercussions. Mertz points out the absurdity of soldiers from the decimated 1487th Regiment being denied the opportunity to file complaints against their commanders because those commanders have already been declared heroes. Jonathan questions the accuracy of Mertz's figures, suggesting a 3:1 or 2:1 loss ratio might be more realistic. He reiterates that even at these rates, the losses are difficult for Ukraine to sustain. He cites a comment from PS01, who points to 26,617 messages in a search group for missing Russian personnel in the Avdiivka area as an indicator of the scale of Russian losses.
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US Congressional Inaction and its impact on the war
🎦 13:42-14:05⏩
Jonathan discusses the White House’s criticism of US congressional inaction regarding aid to Ukraine, particularly in light of the Avdiivka withdrawal. White House national security spokesperson John Kirby attributed the withdrawal, in part, to a shortage of ammunition. Adrian Watson echoes this sentiment, urging House Republicans to pass a bill authorizing aid to Ukraine. Jonathan expresses outrage at Mike Johnson’s decision to go on a two-week recess rather than address this critical issue, calling it a “crime.”
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Russian offensive in Zaporizhzhia
🎦 14:10-15:49⏩
Jonathan reports on a failed Russian assault in the Zaporizhzhia region, resulting in 18 destroyed Russian vehicles (including three tanks) and 70 Russian casualties. Although the exact location is unconfirmed, discussions point to the Robotyne sector. Jonathan provides links to footage of the event in the video description. He criticizes a Russian milblogger for posting a photo of dead Ukrainian soldiers in the street without context. Jonathan emphasizes that the photo shows the Ukrainian soldiers with their hands tied, indicating they were likely executed. This aligns with reports of Russian forces killing wounded soldiers and prisoners of war, which constitutes a war crime.
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Death of a Russian Army Commander
🎦 15:51-16:20⏩
Jonathan reports the death of another high-ranking Russian officer. Colonel Magomedaly Magomedjanov, deputy commander of the 18th Army, died on February 14th from wounds sustained in Ukraine.
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Russian missile and drone attacks overnight and the potential impact on Ukrainian fuel supplies
🎦 16:20-18:05⏩
Jonathan discusses the effectiveness of Ukrainian air defences, noting that while Ukraine downed a fourth Russian aircraft (an Su-34), 12 drones and a cruise missile overnight, the crucial question is how many Russian munitions got through. He speculates that Ukraine may be experiencing fuel shortages due to successful Russian strikes on oil depots, citing the attack on a Kharkiv depot that killed seven people, destroyed homes, and caused significant environmental damage as an example. He believes Russia is increasingly targeting Ukrainian fuel supplies, mirroring Ukraine's tactics against Russian oil depots, and that these attacks may be more successful than reported.
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The human cost of the war and Jonathan's experiences in Kramatorsk
🎦 18:11-22:33⏩
Jonathan reminds viewers of the human cost of the war, going beyond statistics and emphasizing the impact on individuals and communities. He recounts an experience in Kyiv where he was having dinner with Pierre, a British humanitarian worker based in Kramatorsk. Pierre received a message that Russian strikes had hit near his organization's aid centre, forcing everyone to take cover. Jonathan points out that the aid centre is located in a suburb of Kramatorsk, far from any military targets, highlighting the indiscriminate nature of Russian attacks. He draws parallels between the destruction of Kramatorsk and the situations in Avdiivka and Bakhmut, where Russian forces employ a strategy of slow, grinding attrition against civilian areas. He stresses the continual trauma inflicted upon Ukrainian civilians, emphasizing the importance of not becoming desensitized to the suffering. He criticizes media personalities like Tucker Carlson, who present a sanitized view of Russia while ignoring the daily realities faced by Ukrainians. He expresses his anger at Carlson's portrayal of Moscow as a peaceful city, pointing out that the lack of activity is due to mass mobilization and conscription. Jonathan condemns Carlson's silence on the indiscriminate attacks on Ukrainian civilians, accusing him of perpetuating a dangerous and misleading narrative.
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A Ukrainian drone destroyed over Voronezh, Russia
🎦 22:51-23:12⏩
Jonathan reports that Russia claims to have shot down a Ukrainian drone over the Voronezh region. However, he notes that the governor's statement is unusual, lacking specific details about the incident's location or any potential damage.
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More details on the destruction of the Novorossisk landing ship
🎦 23:12-24:55⏩
Jonathan provides additional details on the destruction of the Novorossisk landing ship in December 2023. Reports indicate that the ship, undergoing repairs in Feodosia, Crimea, was struck by two Storm Shadow missiles. The local air defence system, reportedly inoperative at the time, failed to intercept the missiles. A crew of 90, mostly professional sailors with some conscripts, were on board. The attack reportedly killed dozens instantly, with further casualties from a catastrophic explosion ten minutes later. Although some crew members escaped, the official death toll stands at four, with 34 missing. Given the force of the explosion, finding survivors is unlikely. According to Ukrainian resistance group Atesh, Russian air defence commanders are facing disciplinary action due to the incident.
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Ukrainian soldier finds evidence of Russian war crimes
🎦 24:55-25:29⏩
Jonathan shares a report from United24 about a Ukrainian soldier who discovered evidence of Russian war crimes on a stolen camera. The camera contained photos of a Ukrainian family from an occupied village, pictures of Russian soldiers, and a video depicting civilians, including children, being led away with their hands and eyes bound. This discovery adds to the growing body of evidence documenting Russian war crimes.
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Biden blames Avdiivka's fall on US Congressional inaction
🎦 25:29-26:28⏩
Jonathan discusses President Biden’s statement blaming the fall of Avdiivka on the US Congress’s failure to pass aid for Ukraine. Biden admitted that Ukraine might lose other cities until additional funding is approved. He expressed disappointment at the situation, highlighting the bravery of Ukrainian soldiers and the ethical imperative to support them.
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Suspicious circumstances surrounding Alexei Navalny's death in custody
🎦 26:28-27:43⏩
Jonathan delves into the death of Russian opposition leader Alexei Navalny. While some suspect Putin's involvement, others believe it was an inopportune time for such an act and speculate about alternative perpetrators. Jonathan cites a report from The Times revealing that FSB officers visited Navalny's location two days before his death, dismantling security cameras and listening devices. He mentions an unverified report claiming that the official announcement of Navalny’s death came two minutes after the actual time, suggesting prior knowledge and a potential cover-up. Jonathan acknowledges the many unanswered questions surrounding Navalny’s death and the need for further investigation.
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Grenade launcher mishap at a children's judo competition in Melitopol
🎦 27:43-28:14⏩
Jonathan shares a bizarre incident from occupied Melitopol, where a grenade launcher was accidentally discharged during a children’s judo competition. Fortunately, only minor injuries were reported.
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Suppression of LGBTQ+ rights in Russia
🎦 28:17-29:58⏩
Jonathan highlights the deteriorating human rights situation in Russia, specifically the crackdown on LGBTQ+ individuals and events. He presents two examples:
- Police in Tula raided a gathering of the Amore Party, dedicated to love, openness, and sexuality. Attendees were beaten, threatened with being sent to war in Ukraine, and charged with “LGBT propaganda."
- In Moscow, the FSB cancelled a My Little Pony fan event, citing “LGBT propaganda,” even after organizers replaced the rainbow colours on the poster with the Russian flag.
Jonathan condemns these actions, illustrating the lack of personal freedoms and the absurdity of the situation in Russia.
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Wrap up
🎦 30:02-30:08⏩
Jonathan thanks viewers for watching and encourages them to like, subscribe, and share the video.
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