Ukr War BUMPER NEWS Update: Pt 1 - Overnight & Other News: Record Kyiv Drone Strikes
🤖
This summary has been produced automatically by an AI Large Language Model (LLM) without any human intervention. Whilst every effort has been made to prompt the LLM to produce accurate output, there may be inconsistencies, inaccuracies or hallucinations!
Table of Contents 📖
Hello Team
🎦 00:00-00:20⏩
Jonathan welcomes viewers to another ATP Geopolitics Ukraine War News Update, the first part for the 10th of June 2025. He mentions that the Ukrainian General Staff figures for Russian losses will be discussed, with the usual caveats available in the description.
Return to top⤴️
🪦 DISCLAIMER FOR GENERAL STAFF LOSSES DATA
- These are real people with real lives and real families who love them. Don’t let the numbers sap your humanity.
- These numbers probably aren’t accurate but they’re the best we have and we don’t need them to be accurate to be indicative of patterns of activity.
- All losses are estimates. Losses cannot be counted with accuracy because of the conditions on the ground.
- Both sides would see it to be of their advantage to minimize their own losses maximize the other side’s losses.
- Neither side releases their losses but we have enough transparency from the Ukrainian side to have confidence in they are indicative.
- Personnel losses are hard to count. If a soldier gets injured, heals up, and returns to the front line only to get injured again, is that one loss or two? Also, how to deal with losses from PMC’s or soldiers fighting with RF from occupied territories?
- Equipment losses are hard to count. If an AA complex involves several parts and one part gets disabled, is that a loss, or a fraction of a loss? If a tank gets disabled, repaired, back into the fight, then disabled again, is that one lost tank or two?
- All recorded losses are vulnerable to multiple reporting. We have already seen numerous cases of multiple drones in the air reporting the same loss from different angles as multiple engagements.
- Losses are not always reported on the same day they occurred. It is frequent that drone losses are reported at least 24 hours after other terrestrial equipment losses. Certain losses may not be reported for days or weeks for military intelligence reasons.
Russian Combat Losses (10th June 2025)
🎦 00:20-01:46⏩
- Aircraft Losses: The report includes two aircraft added to the list, which Jonathan suggests likely refers to the Ukrainian claim of hitting a Russian MiG-31 and Su-34 fighter jets at an airfield in Savas Lake, Nizhny Novgorod. He presumes visual or satellite evidence confirmed these losses.
- Personnel: 960 Russian personnel were lost, remaining below the 1,000 mark for the second consecutive day.
- Equipment:
- Four tanks and nine troop-carrying vehicles were lost, both below the daily average.
- 48 artillery systems were destroyed, which is over twice the daily average, indicating a good day for artillery losses.
- One multiple launch rocket system (MLRS) was lost.
- 107 vehicles and fuel tanks, and one piece of special equipment were also reported as lost.
- Overall, while not the highest numbers in most categories, the inclusion of two aircraft is significant.
Prisoner Exchange of Youngest POWs
🎦 02:02-03:22⏩
- Jonathan reports on a recent prisoner exchange where Ukrainian military personnel under the age of 25 were set free. Many of these soldiers had been incarcerated since 2022, including survivors from Mariupol, leading to joyous scenes as they returned to their families.
- He notes that Russia also released videos of their captured soldiers being exchanged.
- This exchange follows an agreement from the Istanbul peace talks to swap young POWs and seriously ill or injured personnel.
- Jonathan observes a stark difference in demeanour: Ukrainian returns are often met with flags and happy faces, whereas Russian exchanges appear much more sombre, questioning if this is due to selection bias in information sharing or a genuine difference in how these events are portrayed or experienced on the Russian side.
Ukrainian HIMARS Strike on Russian Iskander Site Kills High-Ranking Officers
🎦 03:48-07:44⏩
- Jonathan revisits a previous report of Ukraine striking an Iskander launcher site in Rylsk, initially thought to have killed five and injured eight.
- Andriy Tsapliyenko, a Ukrainian journalist, now claims that 14 servicemen were eliminated, including high-ranking individuals and an Iskander division commander.
- A Russian source corroborates this, confirming the strike on a military facility, not a civilian one as often claimed by Russian official media. The source laments that "too many officers with high epaulets were in one place" and that it would be difficult to hide their deaths, indicating the significance of the target.
- The strike hit a "cultural and leisure centre" in Rylsk, which was clearly being used as a meeting point for high-ranking Russian officials, as evidenced by the "cool cars" parked outside.
- The Russian source even suggests a possible leak of the meeting's location, hinting at internal issues.
- This specific strike targeted units like the 810th Naval Infantry Brigade (already heavily mauled in Krynky) and the 155th Marine Brigade (repeatedly reconstituted after significant losses in places like Vuhledar), which have taken significant beatings in the Kursk area.
- Jonathan stresses the importance of this strike if the Russian claim is true, as it indicates a successful targeting of key command personnel.
Russian Military Medical Failures and High Wounded Mortality
🎦 07:44-13:35⏩
- Jonathan highlights a significant thread by Chris O'Wiki, detailing a Russian military doctor's frank interview about the dire state of Russian military medicine.
- The doctor, Alexander Moiseyevich Zed (a pseudonym), states that "most of the wounded die" and that doctors are treated as "slaves."
- This supports the long-held theory that while Ukraine has a "golden hour" or "platinum five minutes" for treating wounded, Russia struggles significantly, leading to a higher conversion rate of wounded-in-action to killed-in-action.
- The doctor, who volunteered at 62 and resigned at 65, explains that Russia's military medical service was decimated by Defence Minister Anatoly Serdyukov's reforms in 2008, which cut hospitals, sanatoriums, and personnel training.
- Civilian doctors are unprepared for war injuries, and constant drone threats make evacuation on the battlefield difficult or impossible for Russians.
- Crucially, Alexander stresses the extremely low level of first aid training among Russian troops, which is the main reason for wounded mortality. Soldiers are only taught to apply a tourniquet, lacking knowledge of pain relief, limb fixation, or disinfection.
- Jonathan notes that while tourniquet quality and training are also issues for Ukrainians, they are a particular problem for the Russians, exacerbating their casualty figures.
Ukrainian Use of Guided Glide Bombs
🎦 13:36-13:50⏩
- Jonathan shows video footage of Ukrainians effectively using guided glide bombs, this time in Tetkino, which has been consistently targeted in recent weeks. This demonstrates Ukraine's continued offensive capabilities.
Ukrainian Interception of Russian VTU-AI Kamikaze Drone
🎦 13:51-14:35⏩
- Soldiers of Ukraine's 5th Assault Brigade successfully shot down a new Russian VTU-AI kamikaze drone.
- Jonathan mentioned this AI-capable attack drone in a previous military aid video, noting its danger due to its ability to autonomously select targets and resistance to electronic warfare.
- He remarks that having discussed its threat, it was "good to see" footage of one being taken down the very next day.
Belgorod Fuel Tanker Fire
🎦 14:35-14:53⏩
- Footage shows a significant fuel tanker fire in the Belgorod region of Russia. The cause is unclear, but it represents "more fire for the Russians to contend with."
Ukraine's Domestic Ballistic Missile System (ForM2) Likely in Combat Use
🎦 14:54-18:51⏩
- Jonathan discusses reports that Ukraine's new ballistic missile, the ForM2 (Friend 2), may already be in use. He had previously covered its development and successful tests (up to 200-300km range) in August, and now in June, there's news of its successful tests.
- Valery Ryabik, Development Director at Defence Express, suggests that Ukraine's armed forces have "significantly enhanced their capabilities to defeat Russian occupying forces," citing a sharp increase in destroyed Russian command posts in May 2025, particularly the successful destruction of three Iskander Missile Complex Division units in Bryansk Oblast (which Jonathan just discussed).
- Ryabik states that Ukraine has acquired the necessary components for such strikes and integrated them, possibly using a 'link system' akin to those on F-16 fighter jets.
- He believes Ukraine has been using ballistic missiles against enemy targets for about a year, with many experts unable to identify the means used in strikes deep inside Russian territory, strongly suggesting these were live combat tests of Ukrainian domestic ballistic systems.
- Ryabik indicates that Ukraine is likely entering serial production of this system, echoing previous hints from President Zelenskyy.
- The ForM2 is thought to have a 500kg warhead, slightly larger than the Iskander-M's 480kg, and a 50-metre CEP (circular error probable), making it less accurate than ATACMS (10m CEP) but "still not too shabby." This is excellent news for Ukraine's long-range strike capabilities.
Investigation into "Operation Spiderweb 2.0" Railway Attack Claims
🎦 18:53-25:49⏩
- Jonathan addresses the "Operation Spiderweb 2.0" claim of a Russian military train being destroyed by drones launched from grain hoppers, noting the lack of visual evidence.
- Intel Schizzo provides a potential geolocation of the claimed June 6th attack, where Ukraine alleged destruction of one locomotive, 13 tanks, 100 armoured vehicles, and 10 tank cars.
- Intel Schizzo calculates that a train carrying such equipment would be approximately 1,356 metres long. The fire damage along the rail line near Chernihivka is estimated at 1.35 km, matching the claimed train length. While promising, higher resolution imagery is needed for confirmation.
- Rob Lee and others suggest Russian trains in this sector have predominantly been fuel trains since the first year of the war, not equipment.
- Nipro OSINT and GIC (from the Andrew Perpetua team) have identified another potential site of damage near Verkhniy Tokmak in Zaporizhzhia, showing traces of track damage, though not as extensive as the first claim, and more consistent with a fuel train.
- Jonathan points out that the first geolocation (near Chongha) is logistically important, leading into Crimea, and corresponds to recent truck backups. He questions the lack of video evidence from drivers passing by.
- While satellite imagery shows track damage in two distinct locations, it doesn't definitively prove "Operation Spiderweb 2.0." The difficulty lies in acquiring high-resolution satellite imagery for areas not directly on the front line, which is costly and less prioritised by OSINT analysts who focus on the contact line.
Russia Launches Massive Drone and Missile Attack on Kyiv and Odesa
🎦 25:50-35:29⏩
- Last night was described as a "hellish night" for Kyiv and Odesa, experiencing one of the biggest attacks on Kyiv.
- Scale of Attack: 315 Shahed-type drones were sent, fewer than the record nights (479, 472) but still a "phenomenal amount."
- Interception Rates:
- 276 out of 315 drones were intercepted (around 87%, leaving less than 10% unintercepted), which Jonathan deems "okay" and better than previous rates.
- All seven missiles fired (two KN-22 ballistic missiles and five Iskander-K cruise missiles) were intercepted, which is "excellent news."
- Reasons for Higher Interception: Jonathan attributes the higher interception rates, especially for Kyiv, to two factors:
- Targeting major cities like Kyiv, where the best air defences are concentrated.
- The possible contribution of Sweden's two Saab 340 (ASC 890) GlobalEye AWACS planes, which might be helping to locate targets, particularly larger cruise missiles, from a distance. These planes were reportedly enabled for use at the end of May.
- Impact:
- Kyiv: Jimmy Rushton, residing in Kyiv, described it as the biggest drone attack he's experienced, with constant explosions, searchlights, gunfire, and the sound of drones impacting. Debris damaged homes, vehicles, business centres, and infrastructure, injuring at least four people. Thick black smoke covered the city. Seven city districts suffered damage, including a former UK visa centre and a pharmacy in a residential area, which Jonathan sarcastically notes as "very important military target."
- Odesa: A maternity ward burned, an ambulance station was destroyed, and homes were hit. Two people were killed and six injured, including a 59-year-old man. A medical centre and emergency hospital were also damaged, which Jonathan highlights as a brutal and ridiculous act.
- Tim White diligently documented the night's events, noting that destruction in Odesa seemed to precede Kyiv's attacks.
- Russian airports in Voronezh, Samara, Saratov, Kazan, and Nizhnyakamsk were closed in the morning, and all four Moscow airports were closed overnight, indicating widespread Ukrainian drone activity over Russia, though details on damage are scarce.
Portugal Donates KA-32 Helicopter to Ukraine for Firefighting
🎦 35:41-36:30⏩
- Jonathan notes the positive news of a Portuguese-provided KA-32 helicopter actively dousing fires in the Kyiv area, drawing water from the Dnipro River.
- Portugal purchased six of these Russian-made helicopters in 2007 and announced in October 2022 that they would transfer all of them to Ukraine "as was" (without repairs), which Ukraine agreed to. They are now being put to good use.
Ukrainian Air Defence Achieves 100% Success Against Kinzhal Missiles at Dubno Airbase
🎦 36:30-38:58⏩
- Jonathan reported that four out of four Kinzhal hypersonic ballistic missiles were shot down yesterday morning, a feat only possible with advanced air defence systems like Patriot PAC-3 and possibly the Franco-Italian SAMP/T.
- Yurii Ihnat confirmed the Patriot system achieved 100% effectiveness against all four Kinzhal missiles targeting the Rivne region, specifically the Dubno airbase.
- This is significant because it indicates a Patriot system is operational far west, not just at the expected Khmelnytskyi airbase (Staryi Kostiantyniv).
- Jonathan speculates that Dubno is likely being developed as an F-16 base, given that Russia would target it with four hypersonic missiles, underscoring its critical military importance. The successful interception further highlights the base's value to Ukraine.
Ukrainian Drone Attacks on Russia and Crimea (including Yelabuga Shahid Plant)
🎦 39:03-42:38⏩
- Ukraine launched a "mega massive" drone attack on Russia and Crimea overnight, flooding Russian skies with drones.
- Most drones reportedly targeted the Bryansk, Tula, and Kaluga regions of Russia, with some reaching Voronezh and Belgorod, and many heading to Crimea.
- Despite the scale, there is little detail on the achieved damage.
- The Yelabuga Shahed-type drone manufacturing plant in the Republic of Tatarstan was targeted again. These drones fly over 1,000 kilometres and launch at night for protection, arriving in Tatarstan by daytime.
- Max25 and Dnipro OSINT report multiple explosions at the Yelabuga SEZ, specifically hitting Synergy buildings 13.2 and 13.3, where drone engines and housings are assembled. Confirmation via satellite imagery is pending.
- Jonathan expresses frustration that Ukraine isn't targeting this plant "every single night with, like, 50 drones," considering the threat of 350-500 Shahed drones hitting Ukraine nightly. He stresses the need to "absolutely hammer those manufacturing facilities."
- A video shows a Russian SAM system unsuccessfully attempting to intercept a Ukrainian drone in daylight over Russia, missing "just behind and above the drone." This highlights the challenge of interception.
Analysis of Russian Military Recruitment Figures
🎦 42:39-48:14⏩
- Yanis Kuga presents new data on Russian recruitment:
- From January to March 2025, Russia recruited 89,601 men, a 22% increase compared to the same period last year.
- This is a significant number, and Jonathan notes a "spike" in Q4 recruitment last year.
- Jonathan speculates that the spike might be due to people signing up in anticipation of Trump ending the war quickly, hoping to get sign-on bonuses without front-line combat. He observes that this "backfired" as peace hasn't materialised, and they are now conscripted.
- He contrasts this with Andrew Perpetua's observation that Russian front lines are "thinly manned," similar to Ukraine's (with a reported 1:10 ratio in some areas like Pokrovsk).
- Jonathan links recruitment figures to Russian combat losses and territorial gains. Higher recruitment allows Russia to throw more troops into attacks, leading to higher losses but also potential territorial gains. He suggests a causality: recruitment first, then deployment, then territorial gains, then losses.
- He shows Dell's (Dell is an "absolute legend" providing daily open-source stats) personnel loss chart, noting a huge spike in December that is now decreasing. Jonathan interprets this as reflecting recruitment: if recruitment is high, they can sustain high losses, but if recruitment struggles, losses would need to drop for sustainability.
- He argues that for Ukraine to succeed, Russia needs to struggle with recruitment. This creates a cycle: if Russians see consistent hammering, they are less likely to sign up, but Russian access to accurate information is limited, so many may still sign up for the pay.
Russia Building Concrete Aircraft Hangars in Crimea
🎦 48:18-49:15⏩
- Satellite imagery shows Russian soldiers constructing concrete hangars for aircraft at Saki Airfield in Novofedorivka, Crimea.
- Jonathan points out that this is "two years too late" and should have been done years ago, a sentiment echoed by Russian aviation Telegram sources like "Fighter Bomber."
- He attributes this frantic building effort to the impact of Ukrainian strikes, particularly "Operation Spiderweb," which likely pushed Russia to finally prioritise aircraft protection.
Ukraine Calls for New Sanctions Amid US Aid Concerns and Frozen Russian Assets Discussion
🎦 49:16-53:36⏩
- Ukrainian Foreign Minister Andriy Sybiha urged "immediate, powerful new sanctions" against Russia following one of the war's most massive airstrikes. He condemned Russia's targeting of civilian infrastructure like maternity hospitals and residential buildings, stating Russia "rejects peace, so it must face the consequences. No more waiting."
- Jonathan, however, expresses concern that the US has "completely given up on Ukraine for all intents and purposes," referencing the repeated delays and watering down of aid bills in Congress (e.g., Lindsey Graham and Richard Blumenthal's bill). He believes Trump will focus on domestic issues, leaving Ukraine to be neglected by the US.
- Jonathan discusses Bill Browder's insights on Times Radio, who suggests that the EU might eventually be forced to release the £300 billion in frozen Russian assets to fund Ukraine. This would be a "get out of jail card" for Europe, as direct taxpayer funding for Ukraine would divert resources from domestic services like healthcare and education, risking public anger.
- While EU nations currently prefer mechanisms like preferential borrowing, Browder predicts that if the US continues to withhold significant aid and equipment, the frozen assets will become a "necessary option" for Europe to fund Ukraine without jeopardising domestic budgets.
Russian Propaganda Links LA Riots to Euromaidan
🎦 54:07-56:46⏩
- Jonathan highlights a concerted Russian propaganda effort to connect the Los Angeles riots to Ukraine's Euromaidan revolution.
- Russian trolls are actively pushing the narrative that if US Republicans hate the LA protesters (especially those waving Mexican flags), they should also hate aid to Ukraine, implying guilt by association and that the Euromaidan was the same as the LA riots.
- He shows examples of tweets from various sources, including prominent Russian ultra-nationalist philosopher Alexander Dugin, directly stating "LA equals Maidan" and claiming "the same people behind the same goals."
- Other posts suggest a "textbook colour revolution" in LA, linking it to various past protests in Georgia, Ukraine (2004, 2014), Kyrgyzstan, and Myanmar, all designed to frame them as globally orchestrated "insurrections" against "globalists."
- Jonathan warns viewers to be aware of this "concerted effort" in the information space.
Errol Musk's Controversial Pro-Russia Comments in Moscow
🎦 56:47-59:01⏩
- Jonathan plays a clip of Errol Musk (Elon Musk's father) speaking at the "Stargrad Institute" forum in Moscow, attended by "horrible people" like Alex Jones and Jeffrey Sachs.
- Errol Musk expresses being "completely amazed" by Russia, stating, "I think the image that people give to us in the West of Russia is completely wrong. Russia is wonderful. It's absolutely amazing. And it's quite clear to me that Moscow is the premier city, capital city in the world. Far greater than any other city, and I know them all. So I can only say I'm so glad to be here. And in fact, I'm overwhelmed. I can't believe it. It's just so wonderful."
- Jonathan reacts with intense anger and disgust, questioning if Musk would hold the same opinion if he were in Bucha, shot in the back of the head by a Russian, or if he were in a children's cancer ward hit by a cruise missile. He calls Musk's statements "heinous" and dismisses them as ignorance and susceptibility, going on a brief rant about his fury.
Wrap up
🎦 59:01-59:03⏩
Jonathan apologises for not ending on a positive note and bids farewell.
Return to top⤴️
🤖❓ AI Debrief (post task) - anything the AI didn't understand
I understood all aspects of the tasks and transcript.
0123456789
