Ukraine War Update NEWS: Pt 1 - Overnight & Other News
Table of Contents 📖
"And suddenly it's like, yeah, well done you excellent ever do that again you won't get any more weapons off us. I think it's absolutely outrageous. I mean if there if there's ever an example of tie- this is the tying of the hands behind the backs to fight with those constraints on them. This is it. This is just I think it's heinous, this. It just really, really irritates me."
Hello Team
🎦 00:00-00:56⏩
Jonathan welcomes viewers to the first part of his Ukraine War Update. He reminds viewers that time seems to be accelerating, but is probably constant. Jonathan thanks Alan Doherty for flagging that scammers are targeting the channel’s subscribers by impersonating him and asking for information in order to send them a prize. Jonathan confirms that this is a scam and that he would never ask his subscribers for anything in this way.
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🪦 DISCLAIMER FOR GENERAL STAFF LOSSES DATA
- These are real people with real lives and real families who love them. Don’t let the numbers sap your humanity.
- These numbers probably aren’t accurate but they’re the best we have and we don’t need them to be accurate to be indicative of patterns of activity.
- All losses are estimates. Losses cannot be counted with accuracy because of the conditions on the ground.
- Both sides would see it to be of their advantage to minimize their own losses maximize the other side’s losses.
- Neither side releases their losses but we have enough transparency from the Ukrainian side to have confidence in they are indicative.
- Personnel losses are hard to count. If a soldier gets injured, heals up, and returns to the front line only to get injured again, is that one loss or two? Also, how to deal with losses from PMC’s or soldiers fighting with RF from occupied territories?
- Equipment losses are hard to count. If an AA complex involves several parts and one part gets disabled, is that a loss, or a fraction of a loss? If a tank gets disabled, repaired, back into the fight, then disabled again, is that one lost tank or two?
- All recorded losses are vulnerable to multiple reporting. We have already seen numerous cases of multiple drones in the air reporting the same loss from different angles as multiple engagements.
- Losses are not always reported on the same day they occurred. It is frequent that drone losses are reported at least 24 hours after other terrestrial equipment losses. Certain losses may not be reported for days or weeks for military intelligence reasons.
Russian losses for 28/05/2024
🎦 00:56-02:08⏩
Jonathan reviews the Ukrainian General Staff’s figures for Russian losses on 28/05/2024. He notes that personnel losses were high at 1,300, and significantly above average for armoured personnel vehicles (33), artillery systems (37), vehicles and fuel tanks (56) and special equipment (20). Jonathan speculates that the high number of vehicles and fuel tanks lost could be due to successful use of Ukrainian FPV drones, which are very effective at taking out artillery. He is unsure what the high losses in special equipment could be attributed to, but suggests it could include excavators, communications equipment, or other equipment.
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Andrew Perpetua's verified losses - 27/05/2024
🎦 02:08-04:19⏩
Jonathan reviews visually confirmed losses from military blogger Andrew Perpetua for 27/05/2024. He estimates that the losses represent a 2:1 loss ratio - Russian to Ukrainian, which is good for the Ukrainians. However, over half of the Ukrainian losses are boats, which are all from one montage. It is unclear if the boats were civilian or military, or indeed if they were manned. The Russian losses include a number of D-20 and 30 artillery pieces, one abandoned T-90 tank, one tracked guard tower, several infantry fighting vehicles, a number of all-terrain vehicles and a few civilian vehicles. Several other vehicles were so badly damaged that they could not be identified.
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Andrew Perpetua's verified losses - 28/05/2024
🎦 04:19-08:28⏩
Jonathan analyses the most recent visually confirmed losses from military blogger Andrew Perpetua. He estimates the loss ratio for 28/05/2024 is 2.5:1 or 3:1 (Russian to Ukrainian), meaning Russia lost more equipment. Ukrainian losses include a damaged AHS Krab self-propelled howitzer, a damaged BM-21 Grad multiple launch rocket system, a damaged Bohdana self-propelled howitzer, three damaged (but not destroyed) Bradleys, one captured Roshel Senator Armoured Personnel Carrier and one destroyed Humvee. Jonathan notes that the Lancer system on the Krab failed to penetrate, so he expects it to be back in action swiftly. Russian losses include a number of surveillance and communication equipment, a damaged recovery vehicle, a number of D-30 howitzers (towed), one damaged Uragan multiple launch rocket system and a damaged BM-27 multiple launch rocket system. Jonathan observes that Russia appears to be losing a lot of older towed howitzers at the moment, and speculates that this is because they are more difficult to completely destroy with an FPV drone compared to self-propelled guns. He explains that this is because towed howitzers do not store ammunition on board in the same way as self-propelled guns, and therefore a drone strike is more likely to hit metal parts of the weapon, which is less likely to completely disable the weapon. For this reason, he believes more towed artillery pieces will be listed as damaged, rather than destroyed, because damage is harder to assess from visually confirmed open source intelligence (OSINT). He adds that it is usually more obvious if a self-propelled gun has been destroyed. Moving onto Russian tank losses, Jonathan reports the destruction of one T-90M tank, and the damaging of a second T-90M. He comments that there have been a lot of these tanks appearing on the list lately, suggesting that Russia is getting through its stocks of this recent and highly capable tank. Other Russian losses include: one BMP-2 with tracked guard tower, several other infantry fighting vehicles, armoured personnel carriers, trucks and civilian vehicles. Jonathan concludes that, on balance, the 28/05/2024 losses were worse for Russia.
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Faithless' analysis of Andrew Perpetua's data
🎦 08:28-10:20⏩
Jonathan highlights that a follower of his channel, Faithless, has been experimenting with different ways of visualising the data from Andrew Perpetua’s lists. Jonathan shows several graphics created by Faithless, which present the data as a ratio e.g. 61 Russian losses to 30 Ukrainian losses, and the number of pieces of equipment destroyed and damaged. Jonathan is impressed with Faithless’ work, commenting that he is clever to have created code that is able to present the data in such a clear and useful way. Jonathan will experiment with using these graphics in future videos.
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Ukrainian BM-21 Grad on the Kupiansk Front
🎦 10:20-11:11⏩
Footage is shown of a Ukrainian BM-21 Grad operating on the Kupiansk front. Jonathan comments that this is an area where Ukraine would like to be able to do more offensively. However, because the Ukrainians are restricted in the types of weapons they have been given, particularly when it comes to short to medium range weaponry, they feel uncomfortable firing into Russian territory.
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Discussion about Ukraine using longer range weapons to strike targets in Russia
🎦 11:11-14:00⏩
Jonathan reports that there has been a lot of discussion about whether Ukraine should be allowed to use longer range weapons to strike targets inside Russia. Several countries have given their approval, including Finland, Poland and the UK. It is understood that the UK supports this, particularly given that it is believed that Storm Shadow missiles have already been used by Ukraine to conduct strikes inside Russia (this will be covered in the next video). Even Germany’s Scholz and France’s Macron seem to be coming round to the idea, with Macron suggesting that it would be acceptable if Ukrainian forces were targeting equipment that had fired on them. Jonathan senses a growing momentum, and thinks it is only a matter of time before the US agrees. He then shares a story reported by Jane’s that last year, when Ukraine was first given a Patriot battery, they used it to shoot down either four or five Russian aircraft in one day. The incident happened in Bryansk, which is inside Russian territory. Despite the success in shooting down the aircraft, the US and Germany threatened to cut off all assistance to Ukraine if it happened again. Jonathan is furious about this, describing it as “insane”, “outrageous” and “heinous”. He believes that it is completely unacceptable for Ukraine to have their hands tied behind their backs in this way. Jonathan hopes that these ridiculous restrictions are lifted soon.
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Russian recruitment
🎦 14:00-18:00⏩
Jonathan discusses Russian and Ukrainian recruitment, noting that it has been more difficult to find information on this topic recently. He shares a comment from a viewer (Torda Arvidson) who estimates that Russia is recruiting around 30,000 men per month. Using the figure of 24,000 Russian soldiers killed or seriously injured per month quoted by Germany’s Scholz, Torda estimates that Russia has a surplus of 6,000 troops per month that can be used to create new units. Jonathan points out that this calculation should be treated with caution, but agrees that it is a useful indicator. Another viewer comments that the figure of 24,000 is low, and that the average number of Russian soldiers killed since the start of the war is closer to 626 per day according to the Ukrainian General Staff. Jonathan agrees, but clarifies that this higher average takes into account the high number of casualties in the first few months of the war. Since last October, average losses have been closer to 1,000 per day, which is significantly higher. Based on this, Russia would have to be recruiting even more than 30,000 in order to make up its losses. Jonathan shares that there were rumours several months ago about Russian authorities resorting to more forceful recruitment tactics, such as rounding up men in Moscow and forcing them into vans. There have been no more reports of this recently, which Jonathan describes as ‘crypto-mobilisation’. He is concerned about the amount of recruitment Russia is carrying out abroad, noting that there is a growing number of images and videos showing foreign fighters in the Russian armed forces. He believes this is a shrewd move by Russia, which will allow them to prolong the war. This is because, unlike Russian mothers and families, they are unlikely to be affected by the deaths of soldiers from Cuba or Sudan. Jonathan sees this as a significant challenge for Ukraine, who are unable to recruit foreign fighters in the same way.
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Russian drone and missile attacks
🎦 18:00-19:16⏩
Jonathan reports that Ukraine intercepted 13 out of 14 kamikaze drones launched by Russia in the past 24 hours. He is impressed with the interception rate, and speculates that it could be because Ukraine have more Skynex systems (produced by Rheinmetall) deployed. Jonathan explains that he saw a report that a European nation had placed a large order for Skynex ammunition, and believes this is likely to be for Ukraine. He notes that the Skynex is a new system, and he is not aware of many countries using it yet. The system is particularly effective at shooting down drones, so could explain the improved interception rate. Jonathan adds that the Ukrainian radar and air defence network has also improved considerably. He then mentions a Russian Iskander-M missile strike on Odessa. He has no further details at this point, but believes the target was unknown.
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Speculation about the target of the Ukrainian missile strike on Luhansk
🎦 19:16-22:55⏩
Jonathan revisits the Ukrainian missile strike on Luhansk that took place a couple of nights ago. There are still not many details, but some satellite images have emerged that suggest a Russian NEBO-M radar system was destroyed. The images show the system in place 17 days before the strike, and then the aftermath of the strike, which show considerable damage. Jonathan adds that it is important to bear in mind that there are limitations with this type of open source intelligence (OSINT), as the images were not taken immediately before or after the strike. It is therefore possible that other vehicles may have moved in and out of the area in the intervening time. Jonathan was unable to find any information on the cost of the NEBO-M, which is a fairly recent system (2011), and is designed to detect a variety of airborne objects, including aircraft and ballistic missiles. The system is thought to be capable of detecting 5th generation fighter jets such as the F-22 and F-35.
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Confirmation of Storm Shadow use by Ukraine
🎦 22:55-23:27⏩
An advisor to the Ukrainian Ministry of Defence has confirmed that Ukraine has used Storm Shadow missiles to strike targets in Russia, and had permission from the UK to do so. The advisor also confirmed that Ukraine is developing its own weapons that it will use to attack targets inside Russia.
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Prisoner exchange
🎦 23:27-26:30⏩
Jonathan reports that prisoner exchanges between Russia and Ukraine have been suspended for several months. This is despite the fact that Ukrainian prisoners of war are being denied the right to call home, which contravenes the Geneva Convention. In contrast, Ukraine has been praised by the ICRC, the UN and international journalists for allowing Russian POWs to make 15-minute phone calls. Jonathan believes that by behaving in a morally sound way, Ukraine benefit from positive PR, as well as undermining Russia’s attempts to demoralise Ukrainian soldiers and the civilian population. This is because it is widely believed by Russian soldiers that they will be tortured and killed if they are captured, leading to a large number of suicides. Allowing Russian prisoners to call home will help to dispel these myths. Jonathan also suspects that the families of captured Russian soldiers will be putting pressure on their government to secure their release, which could lead to discontent amongst the Russian population.
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Cyber attack on Russian delivery company CDEK
🎦 26:30-28:08⏩
Jonathan describes a major cyber attack that has been taking place across Russia over the past few days, targeting the delivery company CDEK. The attack has prevented CDEK from delivering shipments, and is the work of ransomware hackers. Jonathan explains that, like traditional warfare, cyber attacks go both ways. He gives the example of cyber attacks on the US by Russia. He believes that the US is often reluctant to publicise these attacks for two reasons. Firstly, they do not want to escalate the situation. However, he also suspects that the US is concerned that by publicising attacks by Russia, they will invite scrutiny of their own cyber activities, which they would prefer to keep under wraps. This is why cyber attacks are often kept low key.
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Freak weather in Russia
🎦 28:08-29:06⏩
Jonathan finishes by sharing that Russia has experienced freak weather, with much of the country experiencing a deep freeze - in June. J&K predict that this will have a devastating impact on the Russian agricultural industry. The freezing conditions come after widespread flooding across Russia and neighbouring countries.
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Wrap up
🎦 29:06-29:33⏩
Jonathan thanks viewers for watching and asks them to like, subscribe and share the video. He apologises that he has not yet been able to provide viewers with an update from the front lines, but explains that he has been working on the military aid video, which includes details of a large and very significant aid package from Sweden.
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