Ukraine Conflict: Full Frontline Update

"Quantity has a quality all of its own"

Hello Team

🎦 00:00-00:47⏩

Jonathan welcomes everyone to another ATP Geopolitics Frontline update. Viewers are reminded to check out the key if they're unsure what the lines mean on the map. Jonathan thanks JR for updating the map. There's also a reminder to check out a live chat that is taking place tomorrow with Jake Brough and also an interview with Sean Penner - a soldier who has been fighting for Ukraine since 2018.

Return to top⤴️

📍 FRONT-LINE UPDATE -🗺️ MAP LEGEND

Kupyansk-Svatove Frontline

🎦 00:47-01:27⏩

No change on this sector of the frontline.

Return to top⤴️

Kreminna Frontline

🎦 01:27-01:46⏩

Jonathan reports a small change to the frontline, specifically the Terny-Torsk Salient to the West of Kreminna. This is a very small change and has been confirmed by all three map updates (JR, Surat Maps, Deepstatemap.live).

Return to top⤴️

Sversk Frontline

🎦 01:27-01:46⏩

No change to report on the Sversk Frontline.

Return to top⤴️

Bakhmut Frontline

🎦 01:46-04:26⏩

Ukrainian forces have regained some territory to the South of Ivaniske and there appears to be agreement on this from the three maps. Jonathan observes that this could make Russian forces think twice about pushing further West. There is some discrepancy between Surat Maps and the other two maps about the extent to which Russian forces have been pushed back. It is unclear whether this is due to overzealous mapping by Surat Maps. Jonathan notes that the use of incendiary munitions by Russian forces in Chasiv Yar must be horrific for those on the receiving end. The Institute for the Study of War reports that Russian forces continue defensive operations in Chasiv Yar although there are no confirmed gains. A Ukrainian military spokesman has reported that between 20-25,000 Russian personnel are involved in assaults on the outskirts of Chasiv Yar, with the VDV (Russian Airborne forces) being heavily involved in the area.

Return to top⤴️

Avdiivka Frontline

🎦 04:26-11:16⏩

Jonathan reports that there has been a reversal of fortunes for the Ukrainians in the area around Ocheretny, where Russian forces have made significant gains. This appears to be the result of the Ukrainians retreating from the area, which allowed Russian forces to advance unopposed. This has caused consternation among Ukrainian forces, with some units reported to have gone AWOL. There is a suggestion that this has compromised the Ukrainian defensive line behind the Dnieper River. One Ukrainian military blogger has reported that the Ukrainian 115th Mechanised Brigade abandoned its positions, allowing Russian forces to break through. They also report that the 47th Mechanised Brigade - who were due to be rotated out of the area after significant fighting and are well regarded - were forced to urgently engage with numerically superior Russian forces. Jonathan notes that video footage shows a Ukrainian Bradley Infantry Fighting Vehicle from the 47th Brigade firing on Russian positions in the area. The 47th Brigade have seen a lot of action in the area, having been involved in fighting further south in Stepova, where they destroyed numerous Russian positions and vehicles. It appears that Russian forces have now captured Ocheretny with some reports of Ukrainian forces taking refuge in the multi-storey buildings in the South of the settlement. Jonathan highlights that the Russians have made some serious advances in this area in the last week, having taken advantage of a change of units in the Ukrainian lines. He describes it as a "bit of a disaster" for the Ukrainians. The Russians appear to have also made gains in Novobakhmutivka but the situation in Novokalynove appears to have calmed down. Jonathan observes how small moments of enemy advantage can lead to the enemy making huge gains. Despite the Ukrainians having held the area for two months, the Russian advance means that they will be able to bring more pressure to bear on the Ukrainians in the region and move closer to their target of Pokrovsk. Jonathan laments that although it would make sense tactically to push across and cut the Russians off, this is unlikely to happen given the current circumstances. He expects that the Russians will continue to make slow but steady progress in the area, using their superior numbers to overwhelm Ukrainian defences. The ISW confirms that Russian forces have made gains in Ocheretny with geolocated footage showing Russian forces raising a flag over the military-civilian administration building. The footage suggests that Russian forces have captured the railway station in Ocheretny and advanced North into the centre of the settlement. Jonathan notes that further geolocated footage shows Russian forces advancing to another building in Southern Ocheretny. One Russian military blogger has claimed that Ocheretny has been almost completely captured and that Ukrainian forces are only holding out in a brick factory in the West of the settlement but there is no evidence to confirm this. Jonathan observes how different the various maps interpret the situation on the ground - particularly Surat Maps which differs significantly from the other maps used. Jonathan observes how the Russian advance in Krasnohorivka has been consistent in the last week. Surat Maps shows that Russian forces have made new advances in the last six days, taking the cemetery and parts of Istorichna and Shchaslyve. Jonathan notes that whilst the Russians have made advances in this area, Deep State Map (another map used by Jonathan) differs wildly, placing the Russian defensive line far further back from where Surat Maps has it.

Return to top⤴️

Mariinka Frontline

🎦 11:16-16:07⏩

Geolocated footage posted two days ago shows that Russian forces have advanced on the Eastern outskirts of Heorhiivka. The Russian Ministry of Defence claim that Russian forces have captured Novomykhailivka but several Russian military bloggers report that Ukrainian forces are holding positions on the Western outskirts of the settlement - particularly the Dacha area. Jonathan displays a map showing Heorhiivka and notes the two lakes in the area. He highlights the differences in the way the situation is displayed on the Surat Maps map compared to other maps. Returning to the ISW report, Jonathan observes that it is confirmed that Russian forces have made advances in Heorhiivka. Jonathan notes that this is confirmed by a social media post showing Ukrainian forces targeting Russian positions in the dachas to the South of Heorhiivka with an FPV drone, and claiming that the Russians have advanced by around 150m. Jonathan notes that the Russians may not have complete control of the area. He attempts to zoom in on the map to show the area in question, however, is unable to do so. The map is expanded to show the situation in the area, and Jonathan highlights that the mapping is very different from the claims made on the Surat Maps map which has the Russian defensive line much further forward than displayed on the map Jonathan is using. The location of the Russian advance is displayed on the map by Jonathan. Jonathan is critical of the claims made by Surat Maps given that none of the other maps concur, and ISW appears to be using geolocated footage to support its claims. Jonathan observes that the Russians appear to have taken Novomykhailivka, with only Andri Perpetua (Deep State Map) yet to update his map to reflect this. Despite the Russians appearing to have captured the settlement, Ukrainian forces are putting up resistance on the outskirts according to some Russian sources. Jonathan describes the relative speed at which Novomykhailivka has fallen as "a bit of a shame" as it had held out for a considerable length of time, and the Russians were made to work hard for every metre of territory. Jonathan observes that ultimately Russian quantity won out over Ukrainian quality, and "quantity has a quality all of its own".

Return to top⤴️

Velyka Novosilka Frontline

🎦 16:07-19:14⏩

Moving West to Velyka Novosilka, specifically the Velyka Novosilka Salient, Jonathan reminds viewers of the river which meanders its way through the area. He attempts to remember the name of the river and consults the map - it is the Mokri Yaly River. He recalls almost reporting on an incident in this area yesterday but didn't because it wasn't in the hits and losses update he was covering. However, the ISW does mention it in their daily report so he will discuss it. Geolocated footage posted on the 22nd shows a Russian-friendly fire incident involving a Russian tank and an MT-LB (a Russian armoured personnel carrier). This took place to the East of Urozhaine. Jonathan notes that it appears that a Russian Spetsnaz (Special Forces) unit destroyed a Russian tank and MT-LB, along with their infantry, using anti-tank guided missiles. It is unclear what the Russian vehicles were doing there, and whether they were on the attack or defending, but the fact that they were hit by their own side with ATGMs suggests that the area is either controlled by Ukraine or is a grey zone. Given the circumstances, Jonathan believes that it is highly likely to be a grey zone, and that the Russians who fired on their own comrades mistook the vehicles for Ukrainian. Jonathan cautions against making assumptions - "assume makes an ass out of you and me". It appears that Russian forces attacked into the area and were subsequently hit by their own side. Jonathan concludes that this does not mean that the Russians control the area, and it is encouraging to see that the various maps have not been updated to reflect this. Jonathan describes this as "a bit of a kick in the shins" for the Russians.

Return to top⤴️

Robotyne Frontline

🎦 19:14-19:14⏩

No change.

Return to top⤴️

Dnipro River Frontline

🎦 19:14-21:39⏩

Jonathan reports that whilst there is no change to the frontline in this sector, it is noteworthy that a Ukrainian flag has been raised in Kozachi Laheri, which is a settlement situated on the West bank of the Dnieper River, downstream from Kherson. Jonathan notes that the literal translation of Kozachi Laheri is "Cossack Camp" and notes that a Ukrainian flag has been raised on a structure (the precise nature of which is unclear) on the Western side of the village. This is intriguing as for a Ukrainian flag to have been raised, Ukrainian soldiers must have been present in the area. The location of the flag is revealed by Jonathan on his map, and he questions why Ukrainian soldiers would go to the effort of raising a flag in an area which is extremely dangerous, and likely a grey zone, particularly as it advertises their presence to the Russians. Jonathan notes that it is not unusual for both sides to "troll" each other by dropping flags from drones as a form of PR, and it is likely that this is what has happened in this instance. He advises viewers to take this with "a pinch of salt" and not to read too much into it for the time being.

Return to top⤴️

Crimea

🎦 21:39-22:21⏩

There have been reports this afternoon of a Ukrainian strike on Crimea and the Kerch Strait Bridge was closed. Russian sources were concerned that the bridge would be targeted but as yet, there have been no further developments. Jonathan carries out a quick search online for any breaking news but there is nothing to report. He concludes by saying that this is something to watch out for.

Return to top⤴️

US Military Aid

🎦 22:21-23:11⏩

In other news, it appears that the latest tranche of US military aid to Ukraine will be in the region of $1bn. This is a substantial sum of money and there is speculation that much of the equipment is already in Germany and Poland, ready to be transferred to Ukraine, as Jonathan has been suggesting in previous videos. The US Senate is expected to vote on the aid package today. Jonathan concludes by stating that preparations for the vote are underway, and it is definitely happening today.

Return to top⤴️

Wrap up

🎦 23:11-23:22⏩

Jonathan signs off by reminding people to check out his live stream with Jake Brough tomorrow evening (UK time).

Return to top⤴️