Ukraine War Update NEWS: Pt 1 - Overnight & Other News
Table of Contents 📖
"You've just proven that you can destroy everything that Russia sends at us. Everything that Russia sends at us can in principle be destroyed if we all work together but you're refusing to do so. Why? Nuclear."
Hello Team
🎦 00:00-00:09⏩
Jonathan welcomes viewers to a new video on Ukraine War News. This will be a shorter video as there is less information available today due to the focus on the Iranian attack on Israel. Jonathan notes that Andrew Perpetua's loss list is not out yet.
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🪦 DISCLAIMER FOR GENERAL STAFF LOSSES DATA
- These are real people with real lives and real families who love them. Don’t let the numbers sap your humanity.
- These numbers probably aren’t accurate but they’re the best we have and we don’t need them to be accurate to be indicative of patterns of activity.
- All losses are estimates. Losses cannot be counted with accuracy because of the conditions on the ground.
- Both sides would see it to be of their advantage to minimize their own losses maximize the other side’s losses.
- Neither side releases their losses but we have enough transparency from the Ukrainian side to have confidence in they are indicative.
- Personnel losses are hard to count. If a soldier gets injured, heals up, and returns to the front line only to get injured again, is that one loss or two? Also, how to deal with losses from PMC’s or soldiers fighting with RF from occupied territories?
- Equipment losses are hard to count. If an AA complex involves several parts and one part gets disabled, is that a loss, or a fraction of a loss? If a tank gets disabled, repaired, back into the fight, then disabled again, is that one lost tank or two?
- All recorded losses are vulnerable to multiple reporting. We have already seen numerous cases of multiple drones in the air reporting the same loss from different angles as multiple engagements.
- Losses are not always reported on the same day they occurred. It is frequent that drone losses are reported at least 24 hours after other terrestrial equipment losses. Certain losses may not be reported for days or weeks for military intelligence reasons.
Ukrainian General Staff Data on Russian Losses (13/04/2024)
🎦 00:09-03:01⏩
Jonathan reviews the Ukrainian General Staff data on estimated Russian losses for the previous day. He notes that the last 4 or 5 days have been costly for the Russians - they have been grinding forward but taking massive losses in terms of equipment and personnel. Jonathan highlights that the Ukrainians will have taken losses too but in general the Russians have been taking significant losses. Jonathan expresses concern about the situation in Chazyviar with suggestions that the Russians may have gained a foothold in the east of the town and that Ukrainian reinforcements have been sent. Jonathan reviews the loss figures - 890 personnel, 5 tanks, 20 armoured personnel vehicles, 34 artillery systems, 1 MLRS, 2 air defence systems, 63 vehicles & fuel tanks and 12 pieces of special equipment.
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Russians Using Modified Ural Trucks to Storm Ukrainian Positions
🎦 03:01-04:21⏩
Jonathan discusses the Russian use of modified Ural-4320 trucks near the frontlines. He notes reports of these being destroyed, highlighting the significance of this as an indication of the lack of other vehicles designed for this purpose such as APCs and infantry fighting vehicles. Jonathan refers to a post from Tendar (German source) on Twitter showing a video of an explosion of one of these vehicles in Robotyne. Tendar notes that this is another example of a failed attack and that the significant losses of Russian armoured vehicles is taking its toll, forcing them to use trucks. Jonathan agrees, adding that this is more evidence of significant equipment losses being sustained by the Russians. Jonathan also shows a video of the explosion of a Buk air defence system in the east of Ukraine. He speculates that this could be one of the two systems reported destroyed by the Ukrainians the previous day. Jonathan explains that this type of secondary explosion, when missiles/fuel cook off, is what you would expect if you hit a real system, rather than the puff of smoke you would expect from a wooden decoy.
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Ukraine Targeting Russian Air Defence Systems
🎦 04:21-05:52⏩
Jonathan moves on to discuss the targeting of Russian air defence systems, noting that several videos circulating show the destruction of half a dozen or so in the past week alone. He points out that it appears that the Ukrainians are specifically targeting these systems with the aim of degrading Russian air defences, allowing Ukrainian air defences to get closer and target Russian fixed-wing aircraft that have been dropping guided glide bombs to such devastating effect.
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Lorry Driver Killed in Sumy Oblast
🎦 05:52-06:23⏩
Jonathan reports the death of a lorry driver in Krasnopillia, Sumy Oblast after Russia dropped explosives from a drone onto the truck. He states that this is a clear example of a civilian target and "that's what they do"
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Overnight Drone & Missile Strikes
🎦 06:23-08:19⏩
Jonathan reports a quieter night in terms of strikes in Ukraine. He notes that Iran isn't the only victim of terror as Russia continued its terror campaign against Ukraine, launching 10 Shahed-136 drones at Ukrainian cities. All of the drones were eliminated by Ukrainian air defences. Jonathan highlights that whilst the world is understandably outraged by the Iranian attack on Israel, this pales in comparison with the scale of the Russian campaign of terror against Ukraine. He states that people should not become desensitised to this as "that sort of thing has been happening every night really since the beginning of the war 2 years ago." Jonathan reports that 2 people were killed in a strike on Kharkiv Oblast. He shows footage of a destroyed house in the village of Vasylivka, speculating that it was caused by a guided glide bomb or shelling. Jonathan also shows footage of the wreckage of a downed Russian Kh-22 missile in Donetsk Oblast, speculating that this is another example of a Russian missile going astray and falling short, potentially even on Russian territory. He says that there have been many examples of Russian missiles and guided glide bombs falling on their own territory. Jonathan moves on to discuss the strike on Luhansk City that he discussed in a previous video, in which a Russian command centre was destroyed, noting that the Ukrainian Air Force Commander has publicly thanked pilots who carried out the attack using Western missiles. Jonathan quotes the Air Force Commander who said "there will be more such strikes when we receive more missiles from Western partners" Jonathan highlights the significance of this quote, stating that this is confirmation that Ukraine is running low on these types of missiles. He adds that the UK should have just said we're not sending anything else other than Storm Shadow missiles because "they just need an absolute ton of these things because they are so effective".
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Zelensky's Response to the Iranian Missile & Drone Attack on Israel
🎦 08:19-12:01⏩
Jonathan refers to Zelensky's response to the Iranian attack on Israel, in particular his reaction to Israel's claim that it destroyed 99% of Iranian missiles and drones with support from the USA, UK and France. Jonathan highlights that this raises a very significant point in that there is no functional difference between Israel being attacked by Iranian drones and missiles, and Russia being attacked by Iranian drones and missiles. The only real difference is that Russia is a nuclear power and Iran isn't (yet). This is the only reason that the allies are able to offer Israel the support that they are giving in terms of air defence, shooting down Iranian ordnance outside of Israeli territory. The allies have expressly forbidden Ukraine from firing western-supplied weapons into Russia. Jonathan questions this, stating that there is far more justification for doing this for Ukraine, given that Russia has literally invaded Ukraine. He reasons that it is only Russia's nuclear weapons that are the differentiating factor - they are a deterrent for escalation and this is why so many countries want nuclear weapons; because allies will even help nations that attack their allies if they have nuclear weapons. Jonathan believes that this will lead to further nuclear proliferation, which is a direct challenge to world safety. Jonathan quotes Zelensky who said "The world has everything necessary to stop any missile, any Shahed drone, and other forms of terror. It only requires the decisions that can restore true and lasting security. Ukraine can defeat Russian terror, protect its own life and the life of the entire Europe and other regions of the world from the spread of evil. This is why we need the support of our partners." Jonathan praises Zelensky's comments, stating that "every day of delay in the delivery of aid results in more destroyed homes and ruined lives" He agrees with Zelensky, saying "You've just proven that you can destroy everything that Russia sends at us. Everything that Russia sends at us can, in principle, be destroyed, if we all work together, but you're refusing to do so. Why? Nuclear." Jonathan moves on to discuss a Twitter post by Wartranslated, highlighting the hypocrisy of the West in their response to the attacks on Israel in comparison to the attacks on Ukraine. He quotes the post "The intersection of Iranian missiles & drones by American & British air defense systems over Israel is very showing. On one side Russia has been attacking Ukraine for 2 years using various means, ranging from cruise missiles to guided glide bombs & drones, including those supplied by Iran. Despite this, Ukraine stands alone in defending itself against these deadly assaults, and with neighboring NATO countries even tolerating Russian provocations with missiles flying into NATO airspace, & no one takes them out. Meanwhile, the close alliance between Russia & Iran the new axis is evident yet targeted strikes against Israel Iran sorry including its top military figures are carried out regularly and effectively The disparity between Iran & Russia is not vast except for one crucial aspect Russia possesses huge nuclear arsenals & frequently employs them in nuclear blackmail while the West states how it is hesitant to engage in direct conflict with Russia to avoid direct confrontation it seems more willing to confront Iran. Concerningly, the West is trembling before Russian nuclear blackmail & will continue being intimidated. And of course this does not mean that the Americans & the British should have avoided helping Israel which is not in NATO like Ukraine. That's not the point. No, the issue is that Ukraine's so-called allies have been begged to provide defense to protect the vital energy infrastructure while to others that aid is handed out without any hesitation" Jonathan agrees with Wartranslated's analysis, and suggests that there may be further hypocrisy from some MAGA Republicans who demand support for Israel in the face of Iranian attacks, whilst simultaneously blocking aid to Ukraine. He argues that the double standards at play here should be exploited by those who support Ukraine. Jonathan then refers to a user comment posted by Jay in Kyiv "After seeing US and British jets shoot down hundreds of Iranian missiles & drones last night, saving thousands of Israeli lives, everyone in Ukraine is saying the same thing. The Russian military is now weaker than the Iranian military. But not only will allies not shoot down Russian missiles & won't even give us the jets to do it ourselves, we even know where all the Russian bomber aircraft sit, but allies refuse to give us the tools to destroy them. Russia is completely destroying Ukraine with larger and larger missile barrages. It's only getting worse. Whose side is the US on, he says as an American?"
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Russia Sets a Goal of Capturing Chaysivyar by 9th May
🎦 15:21-17:44⏩
Jonathan discusses a report from Commander-in-Chief Syrsky who has said that Russia has set a goal of capturing Chaysivyar by the 9th May (Victory Day in Russia). He notes that the Kremlin and Putin in particular, are very keen on the symbolic significance of dates. Jonathan quotes Syrsky's full message: "I worked in another very important and dangerous direction. The enemy is also concentrating efforts to break through our defenses west of Bakhmut to reach the Siversky-Donetsk-Donbas canal, capture the settlement of Chazivyar and create conditions for further advance in the Kramatorsk agglomeration. The implementation of the enemy's plans is hindered by the heroic defense of our brigades which literally dug into the ground holding back the enemy's daily attacks using numerical superiority and various motivational factors including shootings of their own separate groups of enemy infantry reached the novi district but were destroyed by the fpv kamikaze strikes and artillery fire. At the same time, the threat remains relevant taking into account the fact that high Russian military leadership has set the task for its troops to capture chadjivya by May the 9th. In order to respond adequately in the actions of the enemy to the actions of the enemy and strengthen the defense of our troops in this direction, measures were taken to significantly strengthen the brigades with ammunition drones and ew electronic warfare devices. The main conclusion from the two-day work of the front is the need to improve the quality of training including the moral and psychological component to increase the number of high-tech unmanned systems of various purposes and trained operators to improve the quality of conducting asymmetric operations in order to reduce the combat potential of the enemy. We continue to carry out organizational activities with an emphasis on increasing the efficiency of management, eliminating duplication, directing freed resources to support combat units and units. The main task of these measures is to increase the fighting capacity of our troops, save the lives of our soldiers, disrupt the enemy plans and ensure the preparation of reserves" Jonathan notes Syrsky's comments on asymmetry, pointing out that he was unaware it was dwindling. He reads between the lines and concludes that Syrsky is saying that they need to put more effort into drones, electronic warfare etc. Jonathan moves on to discuss the ongoing flooding in Kurgan, Russia - 1000km from Orsk and Orenburg. The city of Kurgan has a population of 300,000 and the water level has risen by over a metre. Footage shows wooden bridges being washed away.
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12-Year-Old Ukrainian Amputee Yana Stepanenko Runs the Boston Marathon
🎦 18:05-18:46⏩
Jonathan shares the story of a 12-year-old Ukrainian girl, Yana Stepanenko, who lost both of her legs in a Russian strike. Yana was recently fitted with prosthetic blades and has run the Boston Marathon. Jonathan describes her as having an "unbreakable spirit" and expresses hope that her story will challenge the views of those who believe that Ukraine is a corrupt country that deserves to be attacked.
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Disinformation: Jackson Hinkle Spreads Fake News About Iranian Attack on Israel
🎦 18:46-19:53⏩
Jonathan issues a cautionary note to viewers about disinformation, highlighting a video that was widely circulated on Twitter by Jackson Hinkle. He describes Hinkle as pro-Russia, pro-Iran, anti-Israel and a divisive character - an "American disinformation, pro-Putin puppet" The video, which has been viewed nearly 5 million times, claims to show Israelis panicking as Iranian missiles and drones strike Israel. The video is actually of fans of Louis Tomlinson (formerly of boyband One Direction) outside the Four Seasons hotel in Buenos Aires, Argentina. Jonathan uses this example to warn viewers to be careful about what they see as it is very difficult to know what is true and what isn't these days. He admits that he finds it difficult too and that "we are all easily victims of misinformation and disinformation" He urges viewers to "be on our guard, especially in such fractious times".
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Wrap up
🎦 19:53-20:01⏩
Jonathan thanks viewers for watching and says goodbye
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