Ukraine War Upd. EXTRA: TikTok Rambo, Snipers, & Arty Green on the Counter
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"The rate of attrition of their troops is such that by winter, it will disappear."
Hello Team!
Jonathan is back from the Turkish barbers, looking good before his holiday. He's ready to give a soup song of what's going on in Ukraine in this extra update video.
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TikTok Rambo
On the more amusing side of the war, a video has emerged of a Chechen "TikTok Rambo" pretending to be in combat. The video shows him firing at a tree just 2 meters away in an obviously staged scene, not actually in a war zone.
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Arty Green on the Counter-Offensive
Ukrainian commander Arty Green gives his perspective on the ongoing counter-offensive in an interview:
- The active phase is in full swing, with intense attrition of enemy troops and equipment
- Russian reserves are depleting fast as they inject them where forces are losing combat effectiveness
- Staromirsk was a key strong point to take back
- The Russians are rigidly clinging to positions rather than falling back gradually which is a poor approach militarily
- Their local offensive in northern Luhansk is doomed to fail due to the difficult, forested terrain
- Western partners tend to panic unnecessarily about the pace of Ukraine's offensive
- Ukraine's command has converged on a combat approach focused on the ratio of losses rather than kilometers gained
- The loss ratio is indisputably in Ukraine's favor, close to 10:1
- By winter, Russian troop levels will have disappeared at this rate of attrition
- They are losing paratroopers and assault troops that can't be easily replaced with mobiks
The Ghosts of Bakhmut
A BBC interview with an elite Ukrainian sniper team known as the "Ghosts of Bakhmut" who conduct night raids near the city:
- Ghost, the commander, says they got the name when they started bringing terror to Bakhmut
- The team of 20 soldiers has 524 confirmed kills in the past 6 months, 76 from Ghost himself
- Kuzia, the marksman, says he never liked guns before the war but felt compelled to fight
- Several team members have been injured but none killed
- They believe they are having a psychological impact on the enemy
Russian Helicopters at Berdyansk Airport
An analysis by @tataragami on the puzzling situation of 20 Russian helicopters remaining unscathed at Berdyansk airport:
- The helicopters can swiftly access front lines and are causing havoc for Ukrainian troops
- Significant spacing between helicopters makes it hard to target many with a single long-range missile
- Substantial air defenses inside and outside the airport perimeter mean any missile attack isn't guaranteed success
- The upcoming GLSDB (ground-launched small diameter bomb) could be a game changer with its range, low cost and countermeasure evasion
- Until then, significant effort and creativity is needed to destroy these high-value targets
Wrap up
Jonathan gives a shout out to Andrew Perpetua (@AndrewPerpetua) for his excellent mapping work which has high expenses. He encourages viewers to support him via Buy Me a Coffee or PayPal if able. Jonathan will continue videos during his holiday but on a somewhat affected schedule. He appreciates all the support and will speak to viewers again soon.
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