Breaking News Ukraine War: SBU Successes Keep Coming as Iskander Ballistic Missile Site Struck
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Table of Contents 📖
Hello Team
🎦 00:00-00:29⏩
- Jonathan welcomes the team to an ATP Geopolitics "Ukraine War Breaking News Update".
- He highlights that this video contains "a good bit of news" regarding an Iskander launcher and launch unit strike, which is significant as he hasn't heard of such targets being hit previously.
- The strike occurred in Bryansk Oblast, Russia, just north of Ukraine, a known launch site for Russian missiles.
SBU Strikes Russian Iskander Ballistic Missile Unit in Bryansk Oblast
🎦 00:29-00:56⏩
- The strike targeted an Iskander missile unit, believed to be the ballistic Iskander-M variant, although Iskander-K cruise missiles also exist.
- Jonathan notes that the launch site was hit while missiles were reportedly loaded and ready to be fired, suggesting a "really well-timed targeting".
OSINT Technical Report on Iskander Strike
🎦 00:56-01:13⏩
- According to OSINT Technical, Ukrainian forces from the SBU successfully struck a loaded and ready-to-launch Russian Iskander ballistic missile unit in Bryansk Oblast.
- The report indicates that multiple large solid-fuel missiles were seen "cooking off".
Visual Evidence and Initial Assessment of Damage
🎦 01:13-01:44⏩
- Jonathan analyses imagery, pointing out smoke coming from the left-hand side and two units "cooking off" on both the left and right.
- While some claims suggest three launchers were hit, Jonathan observes that he can only see evidence of two from the available images.
Anton Gerashchenko's Claim of Three Launchers Hit
🎦 01:45-02:22⏩
- Anton Gerashchenko states that Ukrainian Armed Forces and the Security Service of Ukraine (SBU) struck Russian Iskander missile systems.
- He claims a unit of Russia's 26th Missile Brigade, which was attempting to launch a strike on Ukraine (likely Kyiv), had one missile launcher detonated and two others "most likely damaged".
- Jonathan notes the discrepancy with the imagery he observed but acknowledges the claim of three launches being taken out, with results still being clarified.
Special Kherson Cat's Thread on SBU Success and Target Details
🎦 02:23-03:11⏩
- Jonathan references a short thread from Special Kherson Cat, reinforcing the SBU's continued success, stating they are "having another good day at the office" and "really had a great week".
- The strike targeted a concentration of Russian missile troops operating near the town of Klintsy in Russia's Bryansk region.
- The 26th Russian Missile Brigade was reportedly preparing for an attack, possibly on Kyiv, when Ukrainian intelligence successfully struck the area.
- This report reiterates the claim of one Iskander launcher destroyed and two others likely damaged.
Geographic Importance of Bryansk Oblast for Russian Missile Launches
🎦 03:11-03:25⏩
- Jonathan uses a map to illustrate the location of Bryansk, Kursk, and Belgorod.
- He explains that launching from Bryansk allows Russia to strike closer to Kyiv, making it a "more efficient" launch point.
Challenges of Intercepting Ballistic Missiles
🎦 03:27-04:10⏩
- Jonathan expresses his desire to see more such strikes, as Iskander ballistic missiles are "a right pain in the backside" for Ukraine.
- He explains that ballistic missiles follow a parabolic trajectory, travelling into or near the atmosphere before descending at high speed, making them "very difficult to take out with interceptors".
- Even when hit, their steep terminal phase means they often land close to their intended target.
Strategic Importance of Striking Missile Launchers vs. Production Facilities
🎦 04:10-04:47⏩
- Given the difficulty of intercepting ballistic missiles, Jonathan suggests that ideally, manufacturing facilities for the missiles should be targeted.
- He notes that Ukraine has been focusing on striking missile and missile motor manufacturing facilities across Russia for some time, and ammunition depots have also been hit.
- However, he highlights that striking the launchers themselves is an "interesting development" because it hasn't been seen as frequently.
Iskander Missile System Specifications (from Google Gemini)
🎦 04:48-05:35⏩
- Jonathan shares information from Google Gemini about the Iskander's Transporter Erector Launcher (TEL) vehicle.
- The TEL is typically an eight-wheeled truck chassis designed for off-road mobility and carries two missiles (either ballistic Iskander-M or cruise Iskander-K).
- He notes that cruise missiles fly lower, often slower, and can be controlled more easily in flight.
- He briefly mentions the "shoot and scoot" capability of the system.
Russian Iskander Brigade Numbers and Missile Production Rates
🎦 05:35-08:08⏩
- Jonathan discusses the challenging task of determining the exact number of Russian Iskander launch systems, as Russia keeps this information confidential.
- Historically, as of 2010, reports indicated Russia had at least five Iskander brigades. The recent strike targeted the 26th Missile Brigade.
- Ukrainian military intelligence (as of May this year) estimates Russia's stockpile at almost 600 Iskander-M (ballistic) and nearly 300 Iskander-K (cruise) missiles.
- Production is estimated to have ramped up to 60-70 units per month, an increase from 40-50 per month in December last year and 40 in May last year.
- Some British analysts even suggested Russia could produce over 1,400 Iskander ballistic missiles per year by May 2025, though Jonathan advises taking such claims "with a large pinch of salt" due to difficulties in verifying accuracy.
- He muses whether Russia has the same manufacturing capability for launchers as they do for the missiles.
- Each TEL carries two missiles, and a full brigade could theoretically have 12 to 16 launchers, though precise figures are unavailable.
Conclusion: Significance of Striking Missile Launchers and SBU's Continued Success
🎦 08:08-08:22⏩
- Jonathan reiterates that hitting the launchers is "definitely very good news".
- He hopes to see these targets acquired "far more frequently" because ballistic missiles are "a real thorn in Ukraine's side".
- He commends the SBU again for "doing some phenomenal work".
Wrap up
🎦 08:22-08:34⏩
- Jonathan concludes the breaking news update by encouraging viewers to watch his daily "Hits and Losses" video.
🤖❓ AI Debrief (post task) - anything the AI didn't understand
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