Ukraine Conflict: 5-Day Full Frontline Update, Kursk Counter Update

"They are getting enough equipment, it appears, both in terms of ammunition, artillery ammunition. But as the war goes on, things like HIMARS, you require sending more of those missiles - the equipment is also very effective. Let me know what you think."

Hello Team

🎦 00:00-00:37⏩
Jonathan welcomes viewers to an update from ATP Geopolitics - a 5-day frontline update, clarifying that it is not a news update. He explains that although this map is from yesterday's update and therefore a little out of date, he only has time to record it today. This is a five day update, as opposed to the daily updates from Suriyak Maps which would be too time consuming.

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📍 FRONT-LINE UPDATE -🗺️ MAP LEGEND

Kursk Counter-Offensive - Overview

🎦 00:37-02:08⏩
Jonathan begins by pointing out the huge number of wrongly coloured pins on the map, which is to be expected after five days of intense Russian attacks. There has been a lot of activity in the south of the Kursk region, which Jonathan will cover in a moment. He points out that many wrongly coloured pins are clustered around the south of Sudia in the Kursk region of Russia where a Ukrainian reporter has been filming. The Russians have made some pretty substantial gains in Makhanovka, with fighting ongoing in the area. The area is likely a grey zone. The Ukrainians are targeting Russian positions in the area using FPV drones. Although it is unclear if Russia has robust control of the whole area, they are operating there. This is particularly worrying given the proximity to Sudia - the main stronghold and logistical hub for supplies into the region.

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Kursk Counter-Offensive - Recent Russian Gains

🎦 02:08-04:37⏩
Jonathan refers back to the previous update where he reported that the Ukrainians had been pushing in a number of places around Kursk, in what looked like a counter attack (although he does not know how big it really was). It appears that the Russians have pushed back "in a really big way" and are counterattacking in a significant manner. It is unclear whether this Russian counter offensive was pre-empted by the Ukrainians, or whether the Ukrainians prompted this by their attacks. The Russians appear to have taken this Ukrainian counter offensive badly and are making gains around Darino and along the east around Malaya Lokhnya. That said, the Ukrainians appear to be pushing the Russians back a little in Malaya Lokhnya. Reviewing the maps, Jonathan points out that Andrew Perpetua's maps have the Russian defensive line much further back than Suriyak maps - something which has been the case throughout the conflict. Both mappers agree that the Russians have pushed back North of Malaya Lokhnya (this was the area the Russians were attacking from the south and west to try to cut off). The Ukrainians have also made some gains around Berdin (which they pushed the Russians back from) and may have some control over the village of Novosibirsk. There has also been heavy fighting over the village of Prohresbky, which the Ukrainians retook at the beginning of their counter offensive - some Russian sources are now claiming that Russia has now retaken half of the village. Jonathan reviews the last 5 days of fighting - Two more Ukrainian thrusts have been reported - one near Tepkino, the other near Novy Putny, with claims of pushes around both. There were claims 5 days ago that the Ukrainians were taking land near Berdin and that the Ukrainians had taken Prohresbky on the 7th.

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Kursk Counter-Offensive - Overview of Recent Activity

🎦 04:37-06:25⏩
Jonathan struggles to pronounce the Ukrainian place names - he is aware that he has mispronounced them in the past! There have been reports of fighting in Mykhailivka in the Kursk Oblast and in the Novoivanevka and Nevskke again. A huge amount of fighting is taking place "all over the shop". After a couple of days of no reports, we now have confirmation from geolocated footage that Russia has retaken Ruzhoy Prochnoi and are now advancing towards Kuznytsia. Andrew Perpetua has not yet updated his maps to reflect this. Jonathan thinks that Andrew will likely update his map to align with Suriyak maps and the reports from No Reports. Jonathan concludes that the situation in Kursk is looking extremely difficult for the Ukrainians with the Russians pushing hard in the region.

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Overview of Russian Offensives in Luhansk and Donetsk Oblasts

🎦 06:25-07:11⏩
Jonathan explains that the Russians are pushing hard everywhere along the frontline - they will want to have made as much progress as possible before the 20th January (9 days away). The inauguration will provide the Russians with an opportunity to reset and potentially force negotiations. The Russians are pushing in the Kupiansk area, further south in the Pishchane sector and even further south around Terny, Torska and Mykivka. There is even fighting around Siversk, Chasiv Yar and Turetsk. Jonathan will review each of these areas in more detail in the rest of the video.

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Kupiansk and Lyman - Svatove Frontline

🎦 07:11-08:18⏩
Jonathan reviews the maps from both Suriyak and Andrew Perpetua and notes that there has been some minor advances west of the Oskil River around Dvorichna and further south of Svatove. Andrew Perpetua has the Russian gains as a small area of forest. It's not a huge gain in 5 days but it is concerning given they are on that side of the river.

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Lyman - Svatove Frontline - Pishchane Sector

🎦 07:32-08:38⏩
Further south, in the Pischane sector (where the Russians reached the Oskil River) Ukrainian channels have claimed that they have counterattacked. Jonathan is struggling with the Ukrainian place names and is aware he is mispronouncing them. There have been Ukrainian counterattacks in the area of Kolisnykivka. Jonathan compares this with the maps, noting that whilst this area is under Ukrainian control according to both maps, it differs from the map being used by Greyskull on the 8th January. It's possible that the Ukrainians have retaken some land there. Elsewhere, the Russians are taking land to the South of the sector.

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Lyman Frontline - Makiivka - Terny Sector

08:38-09:40⏩Jonathan moves west to the Makiivka sector. There has been some Russian pressure in this sector with Suriyak Maps showing way more Russian control around Makiivka than Andrew Perpetua, although Andrew Perpetua has added some Russian gains in the area. Around the water features near Terny, the Russians appear to have pushed the Ukrainians back quite significantly (according to Suriyak Maps) - if this is accurate, then it is very significant. West of the Zherebets River, Terny is largely under Russian control. The Russians are pushing for Bilohorivka (not the one near the chalk mines) and Yampolivka is under a lot of pressure from the Russians. Andrew Perpetua, although slightly less "charitable" than Suriyak Maps, still has the Russians pushing to the West of the water features. It's not looking good for the Ukrainians in that sector.

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Lyman Frontline - Siversk Sector

🎦 09:40-11:38⏩
Moving west, to the Siversk sector, Jonathan highlights the significant differences between Suriyak and Andrew Perpetua's maps in the area around Bilohorivka. He suspects that Suriyak Maps is "particularly erroneous" in this area. He does not think that the Russians control the high ground there. The claims by Suriyak Maps are very generous to the Russians around here and also further south around Verkhnokamyanka and Ivano-Darivka. Jonathan notes that there are not many settlements in this area and questions what control actually looks like in this context, given that the terrain is quite undulating. He recalls visiting a tiny village in the area "ages ago" where a couple of people had been spotted but it was unclear whether they were Russian or Ukrainian. Suriyak Maps has filled in this whole area on his map because of this and then taken it back and then filled it in again - the frontline has been very dynamic. Suriyak Maps appears confident that the Russians control a vast area here, whereas Andrew Perpetua is much more cautious. There is a huge difference in how both mappers are interpreting the situation around Siversk. In the North of Chasiv Yar, Suriyak Maps has the Russians in control, whereas Andrew Perpetua does not, which is significant. This is likely a grey zone with very heavy fighting taking place. It's now January and Chasiv Yar was supposed to have fallen in the Summer (according to the Ukrainians) but there is still heavy fighting ongoing. This is a positive sign as it shows that the Ukrainians are still fighting hard.

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Bakhmut Frontline - Turetsk Sector

🎦 11:38-13:37⏩
It's likely that Turetsk is lost - the Russians are now largely in control of the entire settlement. A report yesterday from a Pro Ukrainian channel claimed that Ukraine had successfully counterattacked in the Zalabalky area of Turetsk. Andrew Perpetua has reflected this counter attack on his map. This is good news as it demonstrates that the Ukrainians haven't given up on this area. Jonathan points out the pocket of Ukrainian control North of New York up to Lenidivka but notes that Andrew Perpetua has now classified this area as grey zone, although the Russian control has been pushed back. Jonathan reminds viewers that his maps show the area up to the blue line as being under Ukrainian control, whereas for Andrew Perpetua, the blue line represents the Russian defensive line. The area in between would be classified as grey zone on Andrew's map. This is clearly demonstrated on Andrew Perpetua's map - the red area is under Russian control, the yellow area is grey zone and the green area is under Ukrainian control. The Ukrainians are holding on to this thin patch of land between these two salients which looks precarious. Turetsk is essentially lost, as reflected in Andrew Perpetua's mapping update on the 10th January where he states that the Russians have effectively captured Turetsk, although a large grey zone exists to the North. It was inevitable but still not good news.

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Bakhmut Frontline - North of Soledar

🎦 13:37-14:49⏩
Jonathan turns his attention to the North of the sector where there has not been a great deal of movement in this area for some time. Between Vesele and Voivodintsi the Ukrainians are being pushed back. This is significant as this movement threatens the T0504 highway that runs all the way from Slovyansk to Kostantynivka, Chasiv Yar and onto Bakhmut. Jonathan reminds viewers that we have discussed how close the Russians came to interdicting this road in the past. Although currently under fire control (so very risky to use) the Russians have been stalled for a very long time. That they are making some movement now is "slightly worrying".

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Donetsk Frontline - Western Outskirts of Donetsk City

🎦 14:49-15:42⏩
Moving South to just West of Donetsk City - the situation in the Prokrovka area is looking increasingly challenging for the Ukrainians. The Russians are pushing up the Western side in an attempt to encircle the area. Jonathan believes that the main Ukrainian defensive line is along the road, which is why the Russians haven't made much progress and are choosing to go around Prokrovka instead. This is causing a great deal of trouble for what is now a mainly evacuated town.

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Donetsk Frontline - Western Outskirts of Donetsk City - Personal Account

🎦 15:42-16:08⏩
Jonathan shares a story from his recent live stream with Anton from Base UA who was describing his experiences of carrying out evacuations around Shevchenko when it was under Russian control. On one such evacuation, his van was hit twice by Russian Lancet loitering munitions. One hit the side and one hit the back. Thankfully, everyone survived but it was a terrifying experience. Jonathan emphasises how dangerous this area is but despite the risks, evacuations are still taking place.

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Donetsk Frontline - Velyka Novosilka Sector

🎦 16:08-17:07⏩
The Russians are making gains southwest of Prokrovka, with fierce fighting ongoing. They are filling in areas around Karlivka. Andrew Perpetua's maps are now largely in agreement with Suriyak's maps. Karlivka has fallen, and there has been fighting over the thermal power plant there. The Russians are now attempting to advance West. Noting that there has not been a huge amount of movement, Jonathan refers back to a report he covered yesterday (he can't recall whether it was the ISW) that suggested that the Russian offensive is losing momentum in this area. He concludes that although it's not the worst news (considering it's a 5 day update), the Ukrainians desperately need to prevent any further Russian advances but this would require a significant number of troops.

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Ukrainian Manpower Shortages

🎦 17:07-18:07⏩
The Russians are advancing but taking heavy casualties. Jonathan points out the lack of Ukrainian troops - where there is a lack of "boots on the ground" they are having to be replaced with drones. Whilst drones are very effective, they cannot hold the tree lines, although they can provide a certain level of fire control. To genuinely say that you control a town, you need boots on the ground which Ukraine is lacking. They are having to make do with drones, artillery etc.

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Donetsk Frontline - Velyka Novosilka Sector - Russian Drone Warfare

🎦 18:07-18:25⏩
Andrew Perpetua is also showing more Russian gains around Velyka Novosilka. This appears to be the area where there were reports of intense fighting around the thermal power plant, which has become a focal point in the fighting. Jonathan refers to reports of heavy Russian use of fibre-optic drones in this area, which are proving very effective.

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Ukrainian and Russian Drone Warfare

🎦 18:25-18:57⏩
Ukraine needs to produce its own fibre optic drones en-masse and also develop countermeasures - they are proving to be a real challenge. There are reports that the Ukrainians have started using them (the Russians are claiming that they are using them a lot in Kursk). Jonathan notes that the Russians still retain the advantage in terms of drone warfare. There has been some action around the Kinburn Peninsula, where the Ukrainians appear to be using boats. The Russians are struggling with their assaults on the islands in the estuary and are "taking quite a beating". The Ukrainians have also been targeting Russian positions on the peninsular using drones and artillery. But there is no change on the maps in this area.

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Analysis - Ukrainian Counter-Offensive

🎦 18:57-20:20⏩
Jonathan analyses the Ukrainian counter-offensive. Was this all that they are capable of? Have they used up their reserves? Was this an elaborate ploy to draw the Russians out to inflict as many casualties as possible? And are the Ukrainians planning to open up another front elsewhere? If this was all that they are capable of, then it demonstrates just how desperate they are for manpower, despite having enough equipment, ammunition, artillery pieces etc. Jonathan asks viewers for their opinions.

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Wrap Up

🎦 20:20-20:26⏩
Jonathan wraps up the video - this was realistically a 10th of January update.

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