Ukraine Conflict: Full Frontline Update
Table of Contents 📖
"They're starting to use golf carts to attack in the Avdivka area... Is this a sign that, hey, nothing's bad, we're just using the right kit for the right job? Or is using golf carts the option they have to resort to because they don't have the equipment?"
Hello Team
🎦 00:00-00:22⏩
Jonathan welcomes viewers to another frontline update, reminding them to check the map key if necessary. He extends his thanks to JR for the map.
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📍 FRONT-LINE UPDATE -🗺️ MAP LEGEND
Northern Border: Pro-Ukrainian Russian Fighter Activity
🎦 00:22-04:04⏩
Jonathan discusses the activity of pro-Ukrainian Russian fighter battalions (Siberia Battalion, Russian Volunteer Court, Freedom of Russia Legion) who appear to have made some territorial gains in the northern border region. He notes the differing opinions on this development, with some analysts like Andrew Perpetua being critical, whilst acknowledging their potential to disrupt Russian troop movements and resource deployment. Jonathan remains uncertain of their overall objective, questioning whether it's a PR strategy, a genuine attempt to secure territory, or a larger operation to disrupt Russian military capabilities in the region.
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Northeastern Axis: Stalemate Favours Ukraine
🎦 04:04-05:59⏩
Jonathan highlights the lack of movement on the northeastern axis, from Kupyansk to Svatove to Kreminna, characterising this as positive for Ukrainian forces. He notes potential minor Ukrainian gains near Avdiivka, referencing updates from Syriac Maps. Jonathan also addresses apparent technical discrepancies between various mapping sources, including an ongoing dispute between Syriac Maps and Andrew Perpetua, highlighting the difficulty in accurately representing the fluid situation on the ground.
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Bakhmut: Ukrainian Defence Holds Strong, Signs of Russian Culmination?
🎦 05:59-08:13⏩
Jonathan analyses the situation around Bakhmut, noting the stalled Russian advance on Ivanovske. He attributes this to Ukrainian control of strategically advantageous high ground in the region. Referencing Reporting from Ukraine, Jonathan observes the heavy Russian losses and suggests the possibility of Russian forces reaching a point of culmination, questioning their capacity to launch a significant offensive in the spring/summer as some have predicted. He also ponders the potential impact of earlier Western military aid packages on the current situation.
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Avdiivka: Ukrainian Resistance, FPV Drone Warfare, and Golf Carts?
🎦 08:13-13:09⏩
Jonathan reports on minor Russian gains near Orlivka, drawing on information from Deep State Maps. He analyses geolocated footage, noting Ukrainian strikes on Russian positions and equipment in the area, including the use of FPV drones. He discusses the significance of FPV drone warfare with Daniela from Tochny, highlighting data suggesting Ukrainian dominance in this area. Jonathan analyses footage of Russians employing golf carts in offensive operations, questioning whether this is a tactical decision or a sign of resource constraints.
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Avdiivka: Ukrainian Counterattacks and the Importance of Terrain
🎦 13:09-16:07⏩
Jonathan reports on Ukrainian counterattacks north of Avdiivka, highlighting their success in reclaiming some positions, as indicated by Syriac Maps. He emphasizes the significance of this development, suggesting it provides Ukrainian forces with a tactical advantage by pushing the Russians back from the railway line and denying them access to higher ground and the river. He praises the Ukrainian forces' strategic awareness and effective defence in this area.
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Marinka and Novomykolaivka: Ukrainian Holding Action, Mapping Discrepancies
🎦 16:07-20:34⏩
Jonathan shifts focus to Marinka and Novomykolaivka, noting minimal changes in the front line. He highlights ISW reports of marginal Russian advances northeast of Marinka, supported by geolocated footage showing destroyed Russian equipment. Analysing further ISW data, he observes Ukrainian forces engaging Russian troops further forward than previously reported by the ISW, underscoring the fluidity of the situation. Jonathan contrasts the mapping data from Syriac Maps with that of Deep State Maps and Andrew Perpetua, suggesting potential inaccuracies in the former's representation of the situation in Novomykolaivka. He emphasizes the strategic importance of this sector, commending the Ukrainian defence against persistent Russian pressure.
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Southern Front: Limited Russian Gains, Stalemate Continues
🎦 20:34-22:27⏩
Jonathan analyses the southern frontline, reporting on limited Russian advances near Chervone and Myrna, citing updates from both the ISW and Syriac Maps. He observes that Russian forces have consolidated their positions in Myrna after recent gains. However, he highlights the overall lack of significant breakthroughs on this front.
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Kherson: Positional Fighting and Speculation on Russian Special Forces Activity
🎦 22:27-23:38⏩
Jonathan reports on the ongoing stalemate in Kherson, with positional fighting near Krinky and the Antonivsky Bridge being the only significant activity. He notes ISW reports of Russian Spetsnaz (special forces) conducting a raid on an unspecified location on the west bank of the Dnipro River. Jonathan speculates that the Spetsnaz operation likely targeted areas near Krinky or the Antonivsky Bridge, given the concentration of Ukrainian activity in those locations.
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Wrap Up: Encouraging Signs for Ukraine but Uncertainty Remains
🎦 23:38-24:33⏩
Jonathan concludes with a positive outlook, emphasizing the lack of substantial Russian gains as a positive sign for Ukraine. However, he acknowledges the unpredictable nature of the conflict and the possibility of renewed Russian offensives. He expresses uncertainty about the accuracy of conflicting reports regarding Russian troop numbers and equipment. Jonathan reiterates his appreciation for viewer support and signs off.
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