Ukraine Conflict: Full Frontline Update

"Is this what you would expect if Russia were in a good position? Or is it that they are stockpiling the decent equipment ready for some big push in summer?"

Hello Team

🎦 00:00-00:43⏩

Jonathan welcomes viewers to another ATP Geopolitics video - a late night frontline update for 29th May 2024. He notes that it's been a couple of days since his last update and apologises for this, adding that the map therefore represents two days of movement. Viewers are directed to the key on the screen to understand the markings.

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📍 FRONT-LINE UPDATE -🗺️ MAP LEGEND

Overview of Recent Activity and Potential Summer Offensive

🎦 00:43-08:56⏩

Jonathan observes some colour changes on the map, indicating potential Ukrainian gains. He questions if this signifies a turning tide or just map adjustments. He doubts any substantial counter-offensive from Ukraine, expecting only minor counter-attacks. He mentions footage of Ukrainian convicts capturing a Russian soldier, speculating that convict training might be happening faster than anticipated. Jonathan contrasts this with a concerning perspective from the "Ukraine Latest" podcast. A contributor who spoke with high-ranking NATO officials revealed their hope that Ukraine would survive past July 9th, a date considered critical and potentially marking a downturn for Ukraine. Theories of Russia building reserves are discussed, with Justin Brunk's uncertainty about the strength of these reserves being highlighted. Jonathan ponders the purpose of Russian activity in Kharkiv and Sumy, suggesting they could be shaping operations intended to weaken Ukrainian defences in preparation for a summer offensive, a common Russian tactic. He questions the absence of substantial Russian troop movements visible in satellite imagery, contrasting this with the visible build-up prior to the initial invasion. The use of motorbikes in attacks instead of heavier equipment like tanks and IFVs is seen as a sign of potential equipment depletion. Jonathan analyses the strategic importance of cities like Kramatorsk and Sloviansk, noting the difficulty Russia faces in capturing these well-defended areas. He highlights the significant resources and time Russia invested in capturing Bakhmut and the ongoing struggle for Chasiv Yar, suggesting a major offensive would require a massive mobilisation effort. He cites rumours of forced mobilisations in Moscow and the depletion of easily accessible convicts. Despite this, Jonathan remains uncertain about Russia's readiness for a large-scale offensive, acknowledging the concerns within NATO about the situation in July.

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The Impact of Western Aid and Potential for Ukrainian Success

🎦 08:56-11:33⏩

Jonathan discusses the arrival of F-16s, ongoing explosions at the Kerch Bridge (potentially from ATACMS targeting air defence systems), and the effectiveness of Ukrainian-made drones. He views these developments, along with the significant US aid package and access to ATACMS, as potential game-changers. He speculates about the quantity of ATACMS available to Ukraine and the potential impact this could have on the conflict. Jonathan also analyses the potential implications of the US potentially shifting its stance on strikes across borders. He believes that if ATACMS are used to target Belgorod, it could significantly disrupt Russian supply lines, which are already reportedly stretched.

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Kharkiv: Russian Offensive Stalls in Western Salient

🎦 11:33-12:32⏩

Jonathan shifts focus to the Kharkiv Oblast, specifically the western salient where Russian forces have been attacking towards Liptsy. He notes the three main rationales behind these attacks: creating a buffer zone, establishing artillery positions to target Kharkiv, and diverting Ukrainian troops from other fronts. Despite significant effort, the Russian advance has stalled in both salients over the past five days. Jonathan interprets this as a potential failure unless the Russians are regrouping for a renewed offensive. He questions the lack of mechanised equipment used in these attacks, speculating on the reasons behind this: preservation for a different offensive, vulnerability of such equipment in the current terrain, or a general shortage.

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Kharkiv: Ukrainian Pushback and Mapping Discrepancies near Luchenski

🎦 12:32-13:32⏩

Jonathan focuses on the area near Luchenski, highlighting a significant pushback of Russian forces according to Suriat Maps, a pro-Russian source. However, he points out the ongoing discrepancies between Suriat Maps and pro-Ukrainian sources like Andrew Perpetua and DeepState Maps regarding Russian defensive lines. This discrepancy is attributed to the "fog of war" and the difficulty in accurately assessing control in dynamic combat zones.

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Kharkiv: Intense Fighting and Conflicting Reports in Vovchansk

🎦 13:32-21:45⏩

Jonathan shifts attention to Vovchansk, describing the situation as "horrific" due to the intensity of the fighting. He highlights the conflicting reports regarding Russian progress, with some sources indicating a pushback while Suriat Maps suggests minor Russian gains. The strategic importance of Vovchansk is emphasised, as it remains a top priority for Russian forces, who are reportedly bringing in reinforcements. He discusses the initial ease with which Russian forces captured several border settlements due to the minimal Ukrainian presence, a situation contrasting sharply with the stiff resistance encountered further into Ukrainian territory. The effectiveness of Ukrainian guided bombs against Russian positions in Vovchansk is highlighted. Despite relentless Russian assaults, often employing "meat waves" tactics, Ukraine has managed to push back slightly in the northern part of the town. However, Russia continues its attempts to seize Vovchansk through frontal assaults and encirclement, deploying a diverse range of units, including African mercenaries. Jonathan criticizes the "Biden Sanctuary" - the perceived restriction on Ukrainian use of Western weapons within Russian territory - for providing a significant advantage to Russian forces operating near the border. He argues that this limitation has forced Ukraine to divert resources from other fronts to defend Kharkiv, potentially jeopardizing larger strategic plans. He speculates about a potential shift in the US stance on cross-border strikes, citing rumors and statements from US officials. Allowing Ukraine to strike targets within Russia, particularly with ATACMS, could significantly alter the dynamics of the conflict in Ukraine's favour.

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Kupiansk-Svatove-Kreminna Axis: Mapping Adjustments and Potential Ukrainian Counter-Attack

🎦 21:45-23:08⏩

Jonathan moves to the northeastern axis from Kupiansk to Svatove to Kreminna, where a significant change is observed on the maps. Suriat Maps has retracted the Russian frontline considerably, while DeepState Maps shows a further advance for Ukrainian forces. Jonathan interprets this as a mapping adjustment based on new information rather than a Ukrainian counter-attack. He speculates that this adjustment could be due to Ukrainian shelling of Russian trench lines situated further back than previously assessed.

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Kupiansk-Svatove-Kreminna Axis: Status of Kislyivka, Tabayivka, and Brestov

🎦 23:08-23:26⏩

Jonathan briefly covers Kislyivka, Tabayivka, and Brestov, reporting no significant changes despite ongoing activity in the area. Similarly, he notes no changes near Stolomikivka, another area that has seen recent action.

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Kupiansk-Svatove-Kreminna Axis: Minor Russian Gains and Potential Rejigging near Novovodiane

🎦 23:26-24:27⏩

Jonathan observes minor Russian gains near Novovodiane according to Suriat Maps, contrasted with Ukrainian gains in a nearby area. He believes this could be a map readjustment based on new information about Russian positions rather than a confirmed Ukrainian counter-attack. He also notes no changes in Terny and Torska.

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Kupiansk-Svatove-Kreminna Axis: Unconfirmed Russian Gains near Bilohorivka

🎦 24:27-24:51⏩

Jonathan addresses the situation near Bilohorivka, where Suriat Maps previously showed major Russian gains. However, these gains are yet to be confirmed by other mappers, leading Jonathan to believe they are unlikely. While acknowledging ongoing attacks in the area, he doubts the extent of Russian control suggested by Suriat Maps.

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Svatove Area: Potential Ukrainian Counter-Attack near Vasylivka

🎦 24:51-26:18⏩

Near the Sversk frontline, Jonathan discusses the village of Vasylivka, which is considered under Russian control by DeepState Maps and Suriat Maps, but not by Andrew Perpetua. A tweet from a new source, Colibri, claims that Ukrainian forces have liberated Vasylivka, suggesting a potential counter-attack in the area. Jonathan analyses the surrounding terrain, describing it as undulating and challenging for military operations, unlike the flatter areas of the Zaporizhzhia frontline. He concludes that a Ukrainian counter-attack in Vasylivka, if confirmed, would be positive news, considering the consistent Russian pressure along the railway line in that area.

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Bakhmut: Stalemate at Chasiv Yar and Slow Russian Progress

🎦 26:18-27:20⏩

Jonathan returns to Chasiv Yar, expressing surprise at the slow Russian progress despite their focus on capturing the city. He notes the Ukrainians have been putting up a strong defense, despite struggling with troop and ammunition shortages. The strategic importance of Chasiv Yar, along with Kostantynivka, Truskivka, Kramatorsk, Slovyansk, and Siversk, is reiterated, highlighting Russia's struggles to achieve its objectives in the Donbas. Despite this, threat maps indicate minor Russian gains north of Kalinina, in the Bodonivka area. However, there have been no changes in the canal and micro-district areas, where fierce fighting is expected.

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Donetsk Oblast: Toretsk Under Fire and Limited Changes near Shumy and Avdiivka

🎦 27:20-29:09⏩

Jonathan observes that Toretsk continues to be subjected to heavy bombardment from various types of munitions. He attributes this to its proximity to Horlivka, which is under Russian control, making Toretsk an easy target for shelling. The urban areas of Druzhba, Pivnichne, Zelyazne, Shumy, and New York are also mentioned as being heavily shelled, with fighting having occurred there previously. Despite the shelling, no significant changes are observed along the frontline near Shumy, which largely aligns with the 2014 lines. Similarly, there are no changes in the northern Avdiivka area around Ocheretina, Arkhanhelske, or Novoaleksandrivka.

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Donetsk Oblast: Russian Advances South of Avdiivka

🎦 29:09-31:45⏩

Jonathan reports considerable Russian gains south of Avdiivka, around Solovyove, Novobakhmutivka, and Semenivka. He describes the Russian advance as "grinding" as they push westward, having crossed the Derna River. He speculates that Ukrainian defences were likely established further back, anticipating the need to slow down the Russian advance, allowing for a war of attrition. Jonathan criticizes the lack of substantial Ukrainian defences closer to Avdiivka, attributing this to the unexpected intensity of the Russian offensive and the effective use of guided glide bombs, which forced a retreat and prevented the establishment of stronger defensive lines.

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Donetsk Oblast: Krasnohorivka and the "Bradley Counter-Attack"

🎦 31:45-38:01⏩

Jonathan addresses the situation in Krasnohorivka, acknowledging conflicting reports and expressing uncertainty. He references claims of a successful Ukrainian counter-attack using Bradley armoured vehicles east of Krasnohorivka, potentially encircling Russian forces. He examines various sources, including DeepState Maps, which briefly showed Ukrainian advances in the area, and GIK, a member of Andrew Perpetua's team, who described "massive gains" by Ukrainian forces. Geolocations of Bradley vehicles and areas of fighting are presented, but doubts are raised about the possibility of Ukrainian forces encircling the Russian garrison inside Krasnohorivka. Jonathan analyses the likelihood of different scenarios, ultimately finding it improbable that Ukrainian forces could have penetrated so deeply into Russian-held territory. He speculates that the counter-attack, if it occurred, might have been short-lived and ultimately unsuccessful, though it could potentially be repeated. Jonathan emphasises the need for caution in interpreting the available information, particularly given the time lag between events and their appearance online. He acknowledges the possibility that the counter-attack occurred weeks prior and the situation on the ground has since changed.

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Donetsk Oblast: Status Quo near Mariinka, Vuhledar, and Staromlynivka

🎦 38:01-39:44⏩

Jonathan provides updates on other areas in the Donetsk Oblast, reporting no changes in Mariinka and Vuhledar. He notes witnessing footage of a Russian tank exploding south of Vuhledar, remarking on the occasionally "phenomenal pyrotechnics" observed when military equipment is destroyed. In the Staromlynivka area, Russian forces have made gains west of Urozhne, across the Mokri Yaly River. They now control most of Staromlynivka, reversing earlier Ukrainian advances. However, Jonathan downplays the strategic significance of these gains. Further south, no changes are observed in Robotyne or Velyka Novosilka.

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Wrap up

🎦 39:44-40:03⏩

Jonathan concludes the frontline update, expressing hope that the information provided was useful. He signs off, mentioning it is almost 1 am and he needs to sleep.

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