Ukraine War Update NEWS: Pt 1 - Overnight & Other News
Table of Contents 📖
"We are in this existential fight that's gone beyond Ukraine now. We are fighting for the narratives of our own country."
Hello Team
🎦 00:00-00:20⏩
Jonathan welcomes viewers to another ATP Geopolitics video. Today is the first part of the Ukraine War News Update for 26/11/2024 and covers the overnight news and other news. The Ukrainian general staff figures for Russian losses on 25/11/2024 are mentioned with the usual caveats applying - Jonathan reminds viewers these can be found in the description to the video below.
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🪦 DISCLAIMER FOR GENERAL STAFF LOSSES DATA
- These are real people with real lives and real families who love them. Don’t let the numbers sap your humanity.
- These numbers probably aren’t accurate but they’re the best we have and we don’t need them to be accurate to be indicative of patterns of activity.
- All losses are estimates. Losses cannot be counted with accuracy because of the conditions on the ground.
- Both sides would see it to be of their advantage to minimize their own losses maximize the other side’s losses.
- Neither side releases their losses but we have enough transparency from the Ukrainian side to have confidence in they are indicative.
- Personnel losses are hard to count. If a soldier gets injured, heals up, and returns to the front line only to get injured again, is that one loss or two? Also, how to deal with losses from PMC’s or soldiers fighting with RF from occupied territories?
- Equipment losses are hard to count. If an AA complex involves several parts and one part gets disabled, is that a loss, or a fraction of a loss? If a tank gets disabled, repaired, back into the fight, then disabled again, is that one lost tank or two?
- All recorded losses are vulnerable to multiple reporting. We have already seen numerous cases of multiple drones in the air reporting the same loss from different angles as multiple engagements.
- Losses are not always reported on the same day they occurred. It is frequent that drone losses are reported at least 24 hours after other terrestrial equipment losses. Certain losses may not be reported for days or weeks for military intelligence reasons.
Russian Losses 25/11/2024
🎦 00:20-01:03⏩
The Ukrainian General Staff reports very high Russian losses for 25/11/2024:
- 1,480 personnel (well above the 1,300 daily average).
- 6 tanks (just below the average).
- 20 AFVs (around the daily average).
- 19 artillery systems (around the average).
- 94 vehicles and fuel tanks - Jonathan speculates that this category might be increasing as some tanks/AFVs are replaced with other vehicles.
- 2 pieces of special equipment.
Jonathan notes that there is no Andrew Perpetua loss list today and that other sources will be looked at.
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Storm Shadow attack on Kursk - alleged Russian/North Korean casualties
🎦 01:03-04:05⏩
Jonathan discusses a Daily Mail article claiming substantial Russian and North Korean casualties from Ukrainian Storm Shadow missile strikes on a suspected underground command post in Kursk on 20/11/2024. The article states:
- A top Russian general (Lieutenant General Valery Solochuk) and 500 North Korean Soldiers were killed in the strike.
- 18 Russian officers were lost and a further 18 wounded.
- A North Korean general was injured.
Jonathan is unsure about the accuracy of the claims, but acknowledges that it is possible, and reports the claims as they have been published by the Daily Mail. He notes that there is no footage, other than drone footage from above, so no verification of what happened/casualty figures, and that Russian authorities have not confirmed any losses.
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Ukraine Recaptures Kopanky - Russian POWs, and Electric Scooters
🎦 04:05-05:21⏩
Jonathan reports that Ukrainian forces (3rd Company, 2nd Mechanised Battalion, 3rd Separate Assault Brigade) have recaptured the village of Kopanky, south of Kupiansk in the north eastern sector. The Russians had infiltrated and raised their flag there recently. A number of Russian POWs were taken in this engagement. Jonathan mentions a comment from "War Translator" about a new type of Russian combat vehicle involving electric scooters being used close to the contact line. Jonathan recalls seeing this before, and is unsure whether these are attack scooters, or just being used as transport.
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Visual evidence of destroyed S-400 in Kursk
🎦 05:21-06:13⏩
Jonathan refers to a story he previously reported (23/11/2024) about a Russian S-400 that was destroyed in Kursk - a radar and two launchers in Bolshoi Zhorovo village. Five Russian officers and 3 Almaz Antony employees were killed. Live UA Map is credited with the information. Jonathan notes there is now video footage of the destruction and shares it with the viewers.
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Ukrainian Frankenstammer - Concealed Air Defence System
🎦 06:13-07:30⏩
Jonathan discusses a picture of a Ukrainian "Frankenstammer" that has been doing the rounds. This appears to be a transporter erector launcher and radar (TELAR) for a RIM-7 Sea Sparrow missile that has been concealed underground near the front line. Jonathan notes that concealing the system is good for protection, but it's effectiveness would be limited if the radar was underground - it would not be able to detect aerial threats. The more the system is used, the more vulnerable it becomes to counter battery radar.
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Switchblade 600 destroys a Russian T-90M
🎦 07:30-09:00⏩
Jonathan discusses footage of a US-supplied Switchblade 600 loitering munition taking out a Russian T-90M tank. He describes how there has been very little footage of this system in action, possibly at the request of the US. Jonathan contrasts the 600 with the Switchblade 300, noting that the 300 was largely ineffective - designed as an antipersonnel weapon, with a warhead equivalent to a hand grenade. The 600 has a larger warhead and longer range and has proved to be effective.
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Russian Lancet Drone use drops by 75%
🎦 09:00-11:42⏩
Jonathan discusses a Forbes article, also mentioned in yesterday's Military Aid video, reporting a 75% reduction in the use of Russian Lancet loitering munitions. The reasons given are:
- Strikes on Russian Territory
- Destruction of Operators
- Ukrainian use of first person view (FPV) drones to target Zala reconnaissance drones (spotter drones for the Lancets).
Jonathan expands on the importance of FPV drones taking out the spotter drones, highlighting a point made by Thierry in threads. Without the reconnaissance drones, the Lancets are rendered useless as they have nothing to aim for. Jonathan also speculates that the Lancet may drop out of the sky if the reconnaissance drone is destroyed, but either way, they are being used less, or at least far less successfully. Jonathan shares a graph from Forbes showing the decline in Lancet use, and credits the "Wild Hornets" with a 75% reduction in October. The figure for November is even lower, with a substantial reduction since August (around 10%). Jonathan shares a tally of drones destroyed by the Wild Hornets:
- 211 Zalas
- 137 Supercams
- 6 Orlans
- 7 Lancets (directly intercepted)
- 5 other drones
Ukraine using Guerilla Tactics in Kursk
🎦 11:42-12:16⏩
Ukrainian forces are using guerilla tactics against Russian troops in Kursk Oblast, and outnumbering them tenfold. The Ukrainians are inflicting heavy losses but avoiding direct clashes. Jonathan reiterates that this explains the higher number of vehicles being captured in Kursk compared to other areas as they are being used differently.
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Fire in Moscow
🎦 12:16-12:43⏩
Jonathan reports a large fire in a Moscow warehouse yesterday. The fire engulfed 2,500 square metres and involved explosions. The warehouse contained refrigerant and noxious gases. Jonathan mentions that there have been a number of fires popping up recently.
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Record Russian Drone/Missile Strikes on Ukraine overnight
🎦 12:43-15:46⏩
Jonathan reports a record-breaking number of Russian distance strikes overnight on 25-26/11/2024.
- 188 Shahed drones - Jonathan stresses that the Russians are building these at an incredible rate, and that Ukraine needs to destroy the Alabuga factory.
- 76 drones destroyed by conventional means
- 95 by electronic warfare
- 5 drones returned to Belarus
- 12 drones got through
- 4 Iskander-M ballistic missiles also got through
Critical infrastructure was hit in Ukraine as a result of these strikes. Ternopil, in the west of Ukraine, was targeted. Jonathan thinks there is a large ammunition dump there that was hit around 18 months ago. The Head of the city council has said that this was the heaviest strike on Ternopil since the beginning of the war. The Ukraine Monitoring Service in Belarus has reported that a record 38 Shahed drones have flown into Belarus from Ukraine in the last 24 hours - an absolute daily record. At least one was shot down. It is unclear how many of these are coming from Ukraine/have been spoofed. Jonathan notes that this is far higher than the number reported by Ukraine, and is unsure what is going on.
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Ukrainian Strikes inside Russia
🎦 15:46-17:39⏩
Ukraine has conducted a number of strikes inside Russia overnight:
- A powerful explosion was reported in Novobyshevka village near Taganrog.
- The port of Zalizny in occupied Kherson was hit. Jonathan struggles to describe the location to viewers, but mentions the Kinburn Peninsula and other peninsulas.
- Explosions were reported in Krasny Sulin in Rostov Oblast.
- Air Defence was active in Taganrog.
Details of the strikes are scant, but Jonathan notes that the Ukrainians appear to be taking out, or attempting to take out, targets inside Russia on a nightly basis, although the details are not always reported.
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John Kirby says Ukraine can use ATACMS to strike Russian Territory
🎦 17:39-18:36⏩
Jonathan discusses a statement by John Kirby, that Ukraine can now use US-supplied ATACMS missiles to strike Russian territory. Jonathan speculates that Kirby may have previously been used to deliver a message that Ukraine was not allowed to do X,Y and Z, and thinks he might be happier now that he's able to confirm that Ukraine can use ATACMS more widely, and not just for immediate self defence needs (presumably this refers to targets within 80km of the front lines).
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Footage of ATACMS strike on Kursk Airfield
🎦 18:36-20:34⏩
Jonathan shares footage of the ATACMS strike on the Russian airbase at Kalino in Kursk. The footage, taken from a moving vehicle, shows the cluster munitions exploding across the airfield. Jonathan notes that the presence of workers at the airfield suggests that it was not completely abandoned. As well as the airfield, an S-400 position was also targeted with two strikes.
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Analysis of the Kursk Airfield strike
🎦 20:34-23:52⏩
Jonathan reports claims that five ATACMS missiles were used to target the S-400 system at Kursk, and shares a video showing the strike. Russian sources claimed that 7 of the 8 ATACMS missiles were intercepted. Jonathan is sceptical, noting that the video evidence clearly shows at least two getting through. Jonathan shares analysis from Kateryna Garmash who reports:
- The airfield is home to Su-25 close air support jets, helicopters and drones.
- It is not used for fighter bomber deployments in the same way as other bases such as Voronezh and Lipetsk.
- Activity at the base had decreased in recent days, and it is unclear if significant numbers of aircraft were hit.
- The strike probably targeted supply depots, air defence and radar systems to put the airfield out of action.
- The Russians have been fortifying the airfield with new revetments and reinforcing existing ones. This suggests they intend to continue using it.
- Front Intelligence Insight do not expect high numbers of air assets to have been destroyed.
- If Ukraine successfully targeted air defence in the area, this could create opportunities for future strikes using cheaper, more numerous drones.
- ATACMS strikes are continuing to target military objects in Russia despite threats from Moscow.
- The threats are designed to weaken support for Ukraine.
Jonathan believes that Ukraine will continue to use ATACMS and Storm Shadow missiles to conduct strikes inside Russia, but that the impact may be limited by stockpile levels.
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Rumours of Kirill Budanov's dismissal
🎦 23:52-25:19⏩
Jonathan discusses reports that the Ukrainian President's office want to dismiss Kirill Budanov, head of military intelligence (GUR). The story has been rumbling on for some time.
- The Deputy Head of the SBU (Vasyl Malyuk) has been suggested as a replacement.
- Some commentators have said that Budanov's public statements have damaged Ukraine (including Special Operations in Africa, Coffee in Crimea, and defence purchases in other countries).
- Jonathan doesn't fully understand all of the detail, but thinks it has been on the cards for some time.
- Budanov has been unusually quiet recently - he has previously been known for making cryptic statements and confident predictions about Crimea.
- Jonathan wonders if these may have landed him in hot water.
Various snippets of news
🎦 25:19-28:02⏩
Jonathan rattles through a number of news items:
- The Pentagon press secretary, Sabrina Singh, has said there are no indications that North Korean troops are in Ukraine.
- Former top Ukrainian general Zaluzhny (now ambassador to the UK) has warned that Russia could regain strength by 2027.
- The UN has recorded 376 sexual violence cases related to the war in Ukraine. Jonathan notes the hypocrisy of the UN, pointing out that whilst acknowledging the horrors of the war, Guterres has made statements that align with Russian propaganda.
- A British soldier fighting with Ukraine has been captured by the Russians in Kursk. This is always a risk, as whilst Ukraine need boots on the ground, it gives Russia a valuable bargaining chip that will be worth far more than captured Ukrainian soldiers. Jonathan uses the example of Sean Pinner who was captured by the Russians, and highlights that such individuals are not mercenaries.
Heroic defence of Sperna by Svoboda Battalion
🎦 28:02-30:22⏩
Jonathan draws attention to a video interview featuring a Ukrainian soldier who was interviewed shortly after leaving the front line. Anton Gerashchenko has provided further information on the soldier's unit.
- 8 soldiers from the Svoboda Battalion, 4th National Guard (Rubizh Brigade) defended a strong point near the village of Sperna near Siversk (south of the Serebiansky Forest on the way to Bakhmut).
- They defended the strongpoint for 67 days (10/07/2024-16/09/2024) and spent the last 3 weeks in complete encirclement.
- The final Russian assault involved two tanks, two MTLBs, an infantry fighting vehicle and an assault platoon.
- The Svoboda warriors repelled the attack, destroying the assault team.
- The commander, platoon leader Vladyslav Stotsky, was killed as a result of Russian grenades.
- Military correspondent Yuri Butasov recorded the interview with Vladyslav the day after he left the strongpoint.
Jonathan highlights the bravery and sacrifice of the Ukrainian soldiers who defended the strong point, and urges viewers to watch the video. Jonathan mentions that a Russian Superjet caught fire in Antalya in Turkey - one of 5 incidents involving the Superjet that day. The other four incidents involved hydraulic leaks, malfunction warnings and other problems.
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Russian Economy - oil price falls, Ruble drops, stock market falls
🎦 30:22-32:23⏩
Jonathan discusses the latest economic news from Russia:
- Oil prices are down 3% - a significant drop that will have a major impact on the Russian economy.
- The Ruble dropped to 105.5 against the US dollar yesterday.
- The Russian stock market has dropped by nearly 40 points and is in trouble.
Russian Economy - bond markets and corporate debt
🎦 32:23-35:02⏩
Jonathan provides an update on the Russian bond markets and corporate debt, admitting that he doesn't fully understand all of the terminology but stressing that it is bad news for Russia. He shares a detailed thread from @LogKa11 who reports:
- Mass corporate defaults are expected in Russia.
- The Russian economy is in the worst possible position.
- Corporate bond yields are at a historic maximum
- Catastrophic consequences are expected for the Russian economy as a result of problems in the bond market.
- A number of sectors (wood processing, wholesale trade, agriculture and construction) are experiencing serious difficulties.
- Corporate profitability is falling and defaults are inevitable.
- 43% of corporate bonds are owned by banks, 11% by pension funds.
- In 2024, corporations have reduced the term of new bond issues by 30%.
- Corporations have issued almost twice as many bonds with a floating coupon
- The total issue of new bonds has increased by 15%.
- Issuers did not expect the cycle of tightening credit policy to go this far.
- Refinancing will be extremely difficult.
- The volume of repayments will be 6.4 trillion Rubles.
Further evidence of Russian Economic woes
🎦 35:02-38:51⏩
Jonathan shares further evidence of Russian economic woes.
- 2025 will be a year of bankruptcies.
- Bankruptcies are up 20%
- 200 shopping centres are about to go under
- 37% of businesses are receiving late payments (compared to 22% before the war).
- The average mortgage rate in Russia has now exceeded 30% - those who take out a 25 year mortgage will end up paying 7 times the original loan amount.
- Anton Gerashchenko reports that bankruptcies, losses and the "optimisation" (closure) of Russia's largest businesses and banks is occurring.
- Rusal (the world's largest aluminium producer) has announced production cuts of 250,000 tonnes due to high raw material prices and a negative macroeconomic environment.
- Mechel (a major Russian mining and metals company) has suspended operations at the Olzherskaya Novaya Mine due to problems with the sales market.
- Gazprom has posted a record net loss of $6.1bn in 2023, making it Russia's most unprofitable company for 25 years.
- Alrosa (a Russian diamond mining company) has seen revenue drop by 30% and net profits have fallen threefold in the last 9 months. Net losses amounted to $62.7m
- Baltica Brewing Company is one of Russia's top 10 most unprofitable companies.
- The attempt to nationalise profitable businesses to fill budget gaps has failed.
- Kamaz (truck manufacturer) has reported a net loss of $36m for the first 9 months of 2024, compared to a profit of $152m last year.
- AvtoVAZ (car manufacturer) is facing bankruptcy with debts of over $965m.
- Rosneft CEO Igor Sechin is classifying data on oil exports and refinery production levels. Jonathan notes that this is not to protect national interests, but to conceal the scale of the crisis.
- Gazprom bank and 50 other banks have been sanctioned.
- Russia's alternative to the SWIFT messaging system has also been sanctioned.
Anton Gerashchenko's Analysis of Russian Economic problems
🎦 38:51-41:40⏩
Anton Gerashchenko has said there are clear signs that the Russian economy is heading towards a collapse:
- Resources are being used to the maximum, driving up prices.
- Prices are rising and the Russian Central Bank is unable to stop them. Inflation has risen to 0.37%, up from 0.3% the week before. To slow price rises, Russia would have to cut economic growth, budget expenditure and military spending, or accept higher than target inflation rates.
- Only certain industries are growing (primarily machinery), suggesting that Russia is only producing weapons for use in Ukraine - this is an unsustainable economic model. GDP growth is expected to fall to 0.5-1% next year.
- 4,363 Russian businesses were declared bankrupt in the first 6 months of 2024 (up 40% on last year) despite 4% economic growth. Mass bankruptcies are expected if economic growth drops to 0.5% next year.
Further evidence of Russian decline
🎦 41:40-42:45⏩
Jonathan speculates about the timing of Russia's collapse, and how long Russia can hold out. He notes that Russia's reserves have been depleted and the value has also fallen due to the drop in the value of the Ruble. He ends this section with footage of a burst pipe flooding a residential street in St Petersburg with boiling water.
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Russian Disinformation and US Public opinion on Ukraine
🎦 42:45-46:25⏩
Jonathan expresses concerns about Russian disinformation and the success of Russian efforts to control the narrative in the US. He believes that America is compromised, and that the Trump administration was particularly susceptible to Russian influence.
- Joe Rogan has been repeating Russian narratives. Dmitry Kuleba (former foreign minister) and Wladimir Klitschko have both challenged Rogan to allow them to appear on his show to counter his narratives.
Jonathan ends the section by saying that the level of disinformation is depressing.
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US Public opinion on Ukraine - CBS News YouGov Poll
🎦 46:25-46:58⏩
Jonathan shares the results of a CBS News YouGov poll on US public opinion toward Ukraine that suggests support for providing weapons is now evenly split:
- 49% - The US should send weapons to Ukraine
- 51% - The US should not send weapons to Ukraine
This is a substantial drop from the 75% support levels reported previously.
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"Dear Mr Putin" - Pro-Russian rhetoric in the UK
🎦 46:58-47:51⏩
Jonathan shares a tweet from a UK "concerned citizen" with a blue tick on Twitter who appears to be either a Russian troll or someone who has been sucked in by Russian propaganda, calling on Putin to target the Houses of Parliament in London. Jonathan is appalled by this rhetoric and describes it as "absolutely freaking disgusting" - noting that Jackson Hinkle was cut off from TalkTV for saying something similar. Jonathan is worried that this pro-Russia rhetoric is spreading. Jonathan describes the struggle against Russian narratives as an existential fight, noting:
- The Russian narrative is gaining ground, aided by China and North Korea.
- Cyberattacks and information warfare are proving to be successful.
- Trump's success in the US is partly due to Russian support.
Jonathan ends the section by expressing concerns about the appointment of pro-Russian individuals such as Tulsi Gabbard to positions of power.
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Wrap up - Jonathan's concerns about the state of the world
🎦 47:51-50:26⏩
Jonathan ends the video by sharing his anxieties about the state of the world. He is deeply concerned by the success of autocracies, and the failure of those fighting for what is good and right. He shares a number of examples:
- Rigged elections in Georgia
- Dodgy elections in Romania
- The rise of autocracy in Slovakia, Serbia and Hungary
- The growth of far-right parties in Germany (AfD), France (Rassemblement National) and Spain (Vox).
Jonathan is reading Anne Applebaum's book "Autocracy Inc" and is fearful of the global coordination of autocratic regimes. He is worried that things will go wrong in the US and that this will undermine global stability. Jonathan ends the video by offering viewers hope for the future, and by reassuring them that he will continue to share his views on what is right and good, even if things don't turn out that way.
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