Ukraine War BREAKING NEWS: 2x High-Value Russian Planes Shot Down. But By Whom?
Table of Contents 📖
"The Ukrainians are going to look at that and say, irrespective of what happened, they will want to deliver the news that puts them in the best light. The Russians, interestingly, are in the same position. So what is less embarrassing for them?"
Hello Team
🎦 00:00-00:27⏩
Jonathan welcomes viewers to a breaking news update on the Ukraine War. He explains that he delayed this video to gather more information about the events.
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Initial Reports: Two Russian Planes Down Over the Sea of Azov
🎦 00:27-01:16⏩
Jonathan details the initial reports, originating from Ukrainian sources, claiming that Ukrainian forces shot down two Russian planes - an A-50 and an IL-22M - over the Sea of Azov. He highlights a communication from Yuriy Mysiahin, a member of the Ukrainian Committee of National Security, Defense, and Intelligence, who reported the incident.
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Significance of the A-50 and IL-22M Aircraft
🎦 01:17-02:37⏩
Jonathan emphasizes the significance of the downed aircraft:
- A-50 Early Warning and Control Aircraft: Equipped with a spinning radar dome, this high-value aircraft provides early warning and command and control capabilities, similar to the US Boeing E3 Sentry. Its loss is a considerable blow to the Russian military.
- IL-22M Airborne Command Post: A modernised version of the IL-22, this aircraft serves as a command post and carries vital personnel. Jonathan notes the downing of a similar aircraft during the Wagner mutiny, highlighting the importance of this aircraft type.
Evidence of Damage and Potential Casualties
🎦 02:37-03:32⏩
Jonathan cites a Forbes report that references an alleged audio recording of the IL-22M crew making a distress call, requesting ambulances and fire crews at Anapa on the Russian coast. This suggests the aircraft was damaged and potentially on fire, with possible casualties.
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Reports from Kyiv Independent and Further Analysis
🎦 03:32-04:58⏩
Citing the Kyiv Independent, Jonathan provides further details:
- The IL-22M, carrying up to 10 people, was struck over the Sea of Azov and plays a vital role in coordinating frontline operations.
- The Russian Air Force has limited IL-22s, especially after one was shot down during the Wagner mutiny in June.
- The downing of the A-50, if true, is a significant blow, as Russia possesses a limited number of these aircraft, similar to the US E3 Sentry.
- The alleged shoot-down of both aircraft allegedly occurred in quick succession, with the IL-22M hit first, followed by the A-50 ten minutes later.
- Jonathan raises the question of what truly transpired, hinting at the possibility of either Ukrainian involvement or a Russian friendly fire incident.
Examining Claims from Russian Sources: The "Fighter Bomber" Telegram Channel
🎦 04:58-07:39⏩
Jonathan emphasizes the need to consider information from Russian sources, particularly those like "Fighter Bomber," a Russian pilot with a Telegram channel, to get a balanced perspective. He notes that Fighter Bomber seemingly confirms the loss of the A-50, which carries significant weight, especially given the source's tendency to downplay Russian losses. The cryptic message hints at potential air defense involvement in the incident.
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Analysis and Speculation from Experts
🎦 07:39-08:11⏩
Jonathan presents opinions from various experts:
- Phillip O'Brien urges caution in accepting rumors.
- There's speculation that Ukrainian Patriot systems, if positioned close to the front lines in the Zaporizhia or Donetsk regions, could have been within range to hit both aircraft. However, this would have been a risky operation.
Ukrainian Confirmation and Further Claims
🎦 08:11-09:11⏩
Jonathan highlights claims of Ukrainian responsibility:
- Jimmy Rushton, a Kyiv-based analyst, reports sources in Ukrainian military intelligence confirming Ukraine was responsible for both shoot-downs, but provides no further details.
- Tim White suggests that Ukraine's air defense, likely the Patriot system, was responsible for hitting both high-value Russian planes. However, he acknowledges the lack of official confirmation.
Budanov Confirms Ukrainian Involvement
🎦 09:11-09:47⏩
Jonathan cites a report from Howard Altman, confirming that Kyrylo Budanov, head of Ukrainian military intelligence, confirmed that Ukraine targeted and destroyed the A-50 and damaged the IL-22M. No further details were provided.
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Russian Narratives and Claims of Friendly Fire
🎦 09:47-11:54⏩
Jonathan analyzes emerging narratives from Russian sources:
- Some Russian sources suggest the incident was a case of friendly fire, highlighting a potential failure in the identification systems. They cite previous instances where Russia has blamed friendly fire for Ukrainian successes.
- There's a theory circulating that the planes were mistaken for Ukrainian aircraft due to an error in identifying friend or foe.
- Several Russian sources, including military correspondents, confirm the downing of the A-50, attributing it to friendly fire. They stress the tragedy of the event but emphasize the need to avoid scapegoating lower-ranking personnel.
- Russian sources seem to favour the friendly fire narrative, potentially as a way to downplay Ukrainian capabilities and maintain a sense of control over the situation.
Ukraine Officially Claims Responsibility
🎦 11:54-12:07⏩
The Ukrainian Air Force officially claims responsibility for downing and damaging the Russian A-50 and IL-22M over the Sea of Azov.
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The "Fog of War" and Conflicting Narratives
🎦 12:07-13:05⏩
Jonathan acknowledges the difficulty of determining the exact course of events, describing it as a classic example of the "fog of war," where information is often unclear and conflicting. Both sides are engaged in controlling the narrative: Ukraine wants to present itself in a positive light, while Russia seeks to downplay its losses and manage domestic perceptions.
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Jonathan's Analysis: A Case for Ukrainian Success
🎦 13:05-15:07⏩
While acknowledging the lack of definitive proof, Jonathan leans towards the theory that Ukraine successfully downed the Russian aircraft. He bases his reasoning on:
- Russia's history of blaming friendly fire to mask Ukrainian successes.
- The potential for Ukrainian air defense systems, positioned closer to the front lines, to reach and engage these aircraft.
Strategic Implications and the Importance of Air Defence Systems
🎦 15:07-18:12⏩
Jonathan discusses the strategic implications of the incident, regardless of who is responsible:
- The downing highlights the effectiveness of air defense systems, particularly those like the Patriot, in countering Russian airpower.
- The incident underscores the vulnerability of Russian aircraft, especially high-value assets like the A-50, to increasingly sophisticated Ukrainian air defense capabilities.
- He dismisses Russian claims of destroying a Patriot system as potential retaliation for the loss of their aircraft.
- Jonathan suggests that the downing of the A-50 could be indicative of Russia facing a shortage of long-range ground-based radars, forcing them to deploy the A-50 closer to the front lines, which increases its vulnerability.
Potential Impact on Russia's Capabilities
🎦 18:12-19:42⏩
Jonathan speculates on the impact this incident might have on Russia:
- The loss of the A-50, a high-value and difficult-to-replace asset, represents a significant blow to Russia's surveillance and command and control capabilities.
- He questions whether Russia can easily replace these losses, given the sanctions and the complexity of these systems.
- Jonathan raises concerns about the potential security implications for other regions of Russia if they redeploy A-50s from elsewhere to compensate for the loss. This redeployment could create vulnerabilities that other actors might exploit.
- He concludes that the situation warrants close observation as events continue to unfold.
Wrap up
🎦 19:42-19:49⏩
Jonathan thanks viewers for watching, encourages them to like, subscribe, and share the video, and signs off, mentioning his plans to proceed with his regular news updates.
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