Ukraine Conflict: Full Frontline Update
Table of Contents 📖
"It's not so much about taking the land for the sake of the land. The land becomes a token of exchange, right? It becomes a currency."
Hello Team
🎦 00:00-00:45⏩
Jonathan welcomes viewers to the channel and reminds them that there is now a website (ATP Distilled) where they can find AI-generated summaries of all of his videos thanks to Benny Pye. The ISW (Institute for the Study of War) daily reports are also now included on the website, distilled to their key components.
Return to top⤴️
📍 FRONT-LINE UPDATE -🗺️ MAP LEGEND
Russian Mill Bloggers
🎦 00:45-03:11⏩
Jonathan kicks off by discussing the ISW daily report which focuses on Russian Mill Bloggers. Despite the Kremlin's strategy of controlling the narrative in Russia, some Mill Bloggers remain critical of the Kremlin, though its control of information is not absolute. Mill Blogger Alexander Sladkov faced criminal charges (later dropped) following criticism of the Russian Military, suggesting that Putin prefers co-opting to silencing. There is evidence of self-censorship. Another Mill Blogger posted videos (later retracted) claiming that traitors are in the Kremlin. One former Storm Z unit instructor has criticised the training of drone unit commanders which has led to unnecessary losses for Russia.
Return to top⤴️
Suriyak Maps
🎦 03:11-03:38⏩
Jonathan issues a reminder that one of the mappers he uses (Suriyak Maps) is pro-Russian and that viewers should bear in mind that they may be under pressure from the Kremlin. He notes that JR believes Suriyak maps to be based in Spain, but it is unclear whether they are a random mapper or acting under duress. Jonathan notes that Suriyak Maps previously mapped the Syrian war and that their Twitter handle contains lots of maps. He concludes by reminding viewers to take everyone's claims with a pinch of salt.
Return to top⤴️
Andrew Perpetua
🎦 03:22-03:38⏩
Jonathan reaffirms that he considers Andrew Perpetua to be a very honest mapper who is objective despite his pro-Ukrainian stance - he is brutally honest when he needs to be.
Return to top⤴️
Kursk Oblast: Overview
🎦 03:38-05:53⏩
Jonathan begins by noting that the Kursk region is a mixed bag with gains and losses. The Russians have made gains in Koronovo, pushing back Ukrainian advances. Jonathan reminds viewers that the Russians have deployed a large number of troops to the region (supposedly 60,000) and that the Ukrainians are not trying to take the land, but are forcing the Russians to deploy troops to the area. Any gains are a bonus. He explains that for the Ukrainians, the land is a bargaining chip. He uses the analogy of currency. There may be Operational/Strategic advantages (e.g. control of logistics/rail networks), but it is principally about exchanging territory, drawing troops and for PR reasons.
Return to top⤴️
Kursk Oblast: Ukrainian Gains
🎦 05:53-06:05⏩
, 07:25-07:41⏩
Jonathan notes that the Ukrainians have made gains in two areas:
- Neidanov - now under the control of Ukraine, advancing towards Kabychievka. Jonathan notes that he reported this gain a few days ago.
- Ukrainians pushing further east of Borky, having taken control of Spalnoia. Jonathan observes that this is quite a large area that the Russians have ceded, though notes that Andrew Perpetua has mapped this previously.
Kursk Oblast: Mapping Updates - Delays
🎦 06:05-07:25⏩
Jonathan notes that the recent map updates cover a three-day period. He observes that Suriyak maps are quick to update when Russia makes gains, but slower when Ukraine does. He provides an example of when the Russians briefly enter an area that was subsequently retaken by Ukraine, Suriyak maps was quick to claim this as a Russian gain despite it being very short-lived. They are slow to update when Ukraine makes gains.
Return to top⤴️
Kursk Oblast: Noel Reports - Counteroffensive
🎦 07:41-08:31⏩
Jonathan refers to a report from Noel Reports that the Russians are preparing a counter-attack in the Kursk region to restore lost territory in recent weeks. He notes that there are fewer reports/updates coming out of the region suggesting a move towards more positional warfare.
Return to top⤴️
Kursk Oblast: Bridge Attacks
🎦 08:31-09:24⏩
Jonathan observes that there have been lots of reports/footage of bridge attacks in Kursk. He shows dashcam footage of a bridge being hit just ahead of a vehicle, forcing it to stop and reverse. Further footage shows a JDAM strike on a bridge. He observes that Bridges appear to be a priority target for the Ukrainians, likely in preparation for further westward advances south of the river.
Return to top⤴️
Kursk Oblast: Bridge Attacks (continued)
🎦 09:24-10:20⏩
Jonathan lists several bridges that have been targeted including Karizh, Zvanjoe, and Glushkovo. Pontoon bridges are also being targeted and destroyed. Jonathan shares a quote from Andrew Perpetua describing the number of bombs Russia is dropping in the region as "insanity", and reports that Ukrainian sources are saying that the volume of Russian artillery in the region is such that they are using guided bombs (including JDAM-ER and KABs) to target Ukrainian positions in the region. Some sources believe that the lack of Ukrainian progress in the region is due to the need to focus on countering this and that Ukraine has enough stocks to do so.
Return to top⤴️
Kursk Oblast: Russian Air Power/Ukrainian Air Defences
🎦 10:20-12:17⏩
Jonathan explains that Ukraine can't deploy air defences (e.g. Patriots) close to the border in Kursk as this would make them vulnerable to artillery, MLRS etc. The range of Russian aircraft (70km) means that they are able to operate from within Russia and strike deep into the region (he illustrates this using the map). Jonathan observes that to counter this threat, Ukraine needs to deploy medium-range air defence systems to the region but acknowledges that this would make them prime targets. He concludes that the only way to counter the threat from Russian aircraft is to destroy the airbases they are operating from, though this is easier said than done.
Return to top⤴️
Kursk Oblast: Ukrainian Gains (continued)
🎦 12:17-13:18⏩
Jonathan refers to claims by Global War Monitor that Ukraine has taken 26 square kilometres of territory in the region following the capture of Nadenov. Suriyak maps claims that Ukraine has retaken Spalnoia (east of Borky), whilst clashes are ongoing in Chukashkaya Konopelka.
Return to top⤴️
Kursk Oblast: Ukrainian Equipment Losses
🎦 13:18-14:20⏩
Jonathan shows footage of a Czech PT-91 Twardy tank that has been destroyed by a Lancet drone, observing that the Ukrainians are losing equipment (combat assets) in the region. He reiterates that the area is a cauldron and that Ukraine is vulnerable to Russian artillery and guided bombs.
Return to top⤴️
Northeastern Axis: Overview
🎦 14:20-16:02⏩
Moving to the Northeastern axis, Jonathan begins by noting that the Russians appear to have made gains in the Sinkivka area. Both Suriyak maps and Andrew Perpetua are in agreement. He observes that this is worrying for Ukraine as it moves them closer to Kupyansk, though notes that the Ukrainians hold the high ground in the region. There is no change in the Peschani area. Suriyak maps shows the Russians making small gains south of Novoselivska and north of Stelmakhivka, closing in on the pocket of land they still don't control. Further south, the Russians have made a small gain of a couple of fields in the gully. Jonathan summarises that the Russians have made the most gains in the Northeast.
Return to top⤴️
Northeastern Axis: Vovchansk
🎦 16:02-17:55⏩
Jonathan reports that the only information he has for the Kharkiv Oblast is imagery of the destruction in Vovchansk, which he describes as "heartbreaking", noting that the town has been subject to sustained attacks (from both sides). Both sides are using guided bombs (Ukraine GBU-39s) in the area. Jonathan notes that the Russians may have redeployed units from this region to Kursk, presenting an opportunity for Ukraine to capitalise. He speculates that Ukraine may be using the situation in Kursk as a distraction, though this would require the Ukrainians to commit resources.
Return to top⤴️
Svatove-Kreminna: Overview
🎦 17:55-18:42⏩
Moving south past Kreminna to the Seversk front line, Jonathan notes that there has been no change in the Chasiv Yar area which is good news for Ukraine.
Return to top⤴️
Svatove-Kreminna: Ivano-Darivka
🎦 18:42-20:26⏩
Jonathan describes how Suriyak maps showed a significant Russian advance in the Ivano-Darivka area south of the Serebiansky forest, whilst Andrew Perpetua designated it as a grey zone. He notes that this area is sparsely populated and that it is unclear who controls it. It is likely that both sides are fighting for control. Jonathan reiterates that this is a good example of where Suriyak Maps coloured a large area red (Russian control) on the basis of limited evidence (e.g. footage of a Russian flag being raised). This is in contrast to Andrew Perpetua who prefers to wait for confirmation that one side is in control. Jonathan believes that Suriyak Maps is walking back their previous claims.
Return to top⤴️
Bakhmut: Chasiv Yar
🎦 20:26-21:42⏩
Jonathan reports that there has been no change in Chasiv Yar, describing this as "really good news". Russian forces have been trying to take the town all summer. He notes that there is a large discrepancy between Suriyak Maps and Andrew Perpetua, with Suriyak maps showing the Russians to be in control of the area. Jonathan questions whether the Russians do control the area and highlights that this is in contrast to Andrew Perpetua's mapping. This area represents the biggest discrepancy between the two mappers. He would like to know what Andrew Perpetua thinks.
Return to top⤴️
Donetsk Oblast: Turetsk/New York - Overview
🎦 21:42-22:33⏩
Moving south to the Donestk Oblast, Jonathan observes that the Russians have deployed troops to both the Turetsk and Prokhorovka areas. He considers that this is an indication that these are more important to the Russians than Kursk.
Return to top⤴️
Donetsk Oblast: Turetsk/New York - Ukrainian Reinforcements
🎦 22:33-23:11⏩
Jonathan refers to a report from Defmon that Ukraine has redeployed units from 4 national guard brigades to the Turetsk/New York sector to shore up defences and slow the Russian advance, which appears to have worked. There has been a bit of push and shove, with Ukraine retaking some territory.
Return to top⤴️
Donetsk Oblast: Turetsk
🎦 23:11-23:30⏩
Jonathan notes Suriyak Maps shows that the Russians have made advances into the main part of Turetsk.
Return to top⤴️
Donetsk Oblast: New York - Chemical Factory
🎦 23:30-24:49⏩
Jonathan describes the situation in New York, beginning by noting that Suriyak Maps shows the Russians have made significant gains in the town. Ukrainian forces were holed up in a chemical factory in the town. Jonathan explains that it is likely that the factory has tunnels/bunkers underneath. The Russians surrounded the factory, hoping to starve out the Ukrainians. The Azov Brigade broke through the Russian lines to relieve the Ukrainian troops in the factory, creating a larger corridor, though the Russians appear to have retaken territory around the edges. Andrew Perpetua maps the area differently, showing much of it to be a grey zone, and that Ukrainians are in control of the factory and a larger area to the east and west.
Return to top⤴️
Donetsk Oblast: New York - Azov Brigade Footage
🎦 24:49-28:02⏩
Jonathan reports claims that the Russians have made advances to the west of the chemical factory, though these reports are a couple of days old. He then shares a video of what appears to be members of the Azov Special Operations Brigade walking calmly down a street with a dog. The footage has been geolocated and appears to have been filmed deep within Russian-controlled New York. Jonathan is puzzled by this, as it would indicate that the Ukrainians are in control of this area, despite what the maps show. Jonathan observes that there is no sound of gunfire in the video and that the soldiers are not behaving as if they are in imminent danger. They are not running/hiding. He wonders whether the footage is old, or whether the Azov Brigade really is patrolling deep behind enemy lines.
Return to top⤴️
Donetsk Oblast: Ukraine Control Map/Weekend Update
🎦 28:02-29:07⏩
Jonathan refers to the latest update from Ukraine Control Map (08/09/2024) which highlights that Russian forces have made further gains in Turetsk. He also notes that the report states that the Russians have made small advances in the Prokhorivka and Seladove areas. Finally, he notes that the report highlights the widespread use of thermite drones by the Ukrainian armed forces, as reported by Jonathan previously.
Return to top⤴️
Donetsk Oblast: Turetsk - Prison
🎦 29:07-29:35⏩
Jonathan reports that Suriyak Maps show that the Russians have taken control of Turetsk Prison (number 2). He speculates that this will be beneficial to the Russians as they will be well-fortified.
Return to top⤴️
Donetsk Oblast: Prokhorivka - Hrudivka
🎦 29:35-30:22⏩
Jonathan notes that there have been no Ukrainian advances towards the T-0504 highway near Nova Aleksandrivka. However, the Russians may have made advances towards Prokhorivka itself, although this could be Suriyak Maps catching up, though there are reports that Hrudivka is under Russian control or under a lot of pressure. Both mappers agree.
Return to top⤴️
Donetsk Oblast: Seladove
🎦 30:22-31:19⏩
Jonathan reports that Suriyak Maps show that Russian forces are making gains in Seladove, having been pushed back by Ukrainian forces previously. They now control around 40% of the town. There are no corresponding changes to Andrew Perpetua's maps. Jonathan is unable to find any further details on the Suriyak maps feed.
Return to top⤴️
Donetsk Oblast: Nevelske/Krasnohorivka
🎦 31:19-34:16⏩
Jonathan reports that both Russian and Ukrainian sources are claiming that Nevelske is now under Russian control following the capture of Krasnohorivka, and that Ukrainian forces are at risk of encirclement. Suriyak Maps shows that Russian forces have taken territory to the south of the town. He notes that these are worrying gains and describes how Nevelske was a very important defensive position for Ukraine that helped prevent Russia from advancing. Ukrainian forces were dug in with trench networks and fortifications. He speculates that these gains could lead to the encirclement of a sizeable Ukrainian force if Russia is able to link its gains in the north with those in the south. Jonathan believes that this area will likely fall to the Russians and that Ukraine will be forced to cede a considerable amount of territory.
Return to top⤴️
Donetsk Oblast: Nevelske/Krasnohorivka (continued)
🎦 34:16-35:20⏩
Jonathan shares a comment from a viewer that questions whether Ukraine is withdrawing from the Nevelske Salient, given how deep the Russian advance has been. He notes that there has been a lot of speculation on the internet about a Ukrainian withdrawal and suggests that this is likely what is happening. Jonathan predicts that we may see the area fall under Russian control soon.
Return to top⤴️
Donetsk Oblast: Vodiane
🎦 35:20-36:32⏩
Jonathan observes that Andrew Perpetua shows the town of Vodiane as being under complete Russian control, whilst Suriyak Maps doesn't. There has been a statement from the Ukrainian General Staff/unit commander that the Russians do not control the town, though this could be a PR exercise. Jonathan trusts Andrew Perpetua's reporting. However, it could be that the Ukrainians are still fighting for the town. He explains that Vodiane is strategically important to Ukraine as it prevents Vuhledar from being flanked by the Russians. He speculates that if Russia does take Vodiane it will be a worrying development and that the entire front line in the area could collapse.
Return to top⤴️
Donetsk Oblast: Vuhledar - Importance of Terrain
🎦 36:32-38:08⏩
Jonathan highlights that Vodiane occupies the high ground overlooking the area and compares it to Vuhledar. Vuhledar is approximately 14 metres higher than the surrounding area. He explains how the Ukrainians were able to defend Vuhledar from attacks from the south (using ATGMs) but that Russian forces have switched tactics and are trying to capture Vodiane to gain the high ground and make an assault easier.
Return to top⤴️
Donetsk Oblast: Pavlivka - Russian Motorcycle Assault
🎦 38:08-39:18⏩
Jonathan reports that Ukrainian forces repelled an attack in the northern part of Pavlivka by a Russian "Assault Motorcycle Group". He notes that Motorcycles are being used a lot in the area, and explains why this is the case: It's difficult for the Ukrainians to target them as they are small. He observes that to take out 20 men on motorcycles would require 20 munitions, whilst one IFV could be destroyed with one well-aimed munition.
Return to top⤴️
Wrap Up
🎦 39:18-40:52⏩
Jonathan thanks viewers for watching, reminding them about the ATP Distilled website, and mentioning that there is a merchant support page should they wish to support the channel. He encourages viewers to check out his books which are available from the website. He finishes by thanking Benny Pye for all his hard work.
Return to top⤴️
