Ukraine War Update BUMPER NEWS: Pt 1 - Overnight & Other News
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This summary has been produced automatically by an AI Large Language Model (LLM) without any human intervention. Whilst every effort has been made to prompt the LLM to produce accurate output, there may be inconsistencies, inaccuracies or hallucinations!
Table of Contents 📖
"Is that probability derived from form and from who the sort of, you know, is this the sort of thing that Russia would do, blah, blah, blah, rather than actually having, you know, an intercept that is telling them the order to do that."
Hello Team
🎦 00:00-00:15⏩
Jonathan welcomes viewers to another Ukraine War Update, this time a Bumper News Update. It's the first part of the 29/11/2024 update. Jonathan observes that there are some interesting statistics to look at today.
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🪦 DISCLAIMER FOR GENERAL STAFF LOSSES DATA
- These are real people with real lives and real families who love them. Don’t let the numbers sap your humanity.
- These numbers probably aren’t accurate but they’re the best we have and we don’t need them to be accurate to be indicative of patterns of activity.
- All losses are estimates. Losses cannot be counted with accuracy because of the conditions on the ground.
- Both sides would see it to be of their advantage to minimize their own losses maximize the other side’s losses.
- Neither side releases their losses but we have enough transparency from the Ukrainian side to have confidence in they are indicative.
- Personnel losses are hard to count. If a soldier gets injured, heals up, and returns to the front line only to get injured again, is that one loss or two? Also, how to deal with losses from PMC’s or soldiers fighting with RF from occupied territories?
- Equipment losses are hard to count. If an AA complex involves several parts and one part gets disabled, is that a loss, or a fraction of a loss? If a tank gets disabled, repaired, back into the fight, then disabled again, is that one lost tank or two?
- All recorded losses are vulnerable to multiple reporting. We have already seen numerous cases of multiple drones in the air reporting the same loss from different angles as multiple engagements.
- Losses are not always reported on the same day they occurred. It is frequent that drone losses are reported at least 24 hours after other terrestrial equipment losses. Certain losses may not be reported for days or weeks for military intelligence reasons.
Record Russian personnel losses
🎦 00:15-01:47⏩
- Russian personnel losses are at a record high of 2,030, smashing the previous high of around 1,780.
- Jonathan notes that there must have been some serious activity along the front lines, possibly troop accumulations hit but he is unsure.
- Other notable losses for Russia include 8 tanks, 33 armoured fighting vehicles, 34 artillery systems, 86 vehicles and fuel tanks, and high numbers of drones and cruise missiles.
- Jonathan mentions that these figures cover the last 24 hours.
Andrew Perpetua's Loss List Summary
🎦 01:47-02:13⏩
- Jonathan notes that Andrew Perpetua's loss list for the previous day shows an approximate 4:1 loss ratio for Russian and Ukrainian personnel losses, and a 2:1 (possibly 2.5:1 or even 3:1) loss ratio for combat asset losses.
Ukrainian Losses (Andrew Perpetua)
🎦 02:13-04:28⏩
- Ukrainian losses include:
- An excavator, 2 MT-12s (old anti-tank guns), and a T-64 tank.
- A captured Bradley, a captured and abandoned Bradley, and a captured and abandoned Marder. Jonathan notes that these are most likely irretrievable losses.
- A captured M113, and two destroyed M113s
- A captured Kirpi (Turkish) and a captured Kozak-7 (Ukrainian) mine resistant and ambush protected vehicles
- Jonathan is surprised to see 4 captured vehicles, the highest number he has ever seen and speculates that there may be maneuvers going on in the Kursk area.
- A couple of civilian vehicles/trucks were also destroyed.
Russian Losses (Andrew Perpetua)
🎦 04:28-04:45⏩
Russian losses were significant, particularly civilian vehicles (Loafs, pickup trucks, Bobics, motorcycles, cars and ATVs) and trucks but not many trucks were destroyed.
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Russian Combat Asset Losses (Andrew Perpetua)
🎦 04:45-05:46⏩
Russian combat asset losses included:
- A damaged TOR-M1 and TOR air defence system. The TOR-M1 was damaged by a Switchblade 600 drone, and footage of this is beginning to emerge.
- A boat, a couple of artillery pieces, three tanks, and a number of infantry fighting vehicles (BMP 1s, 2s and 3s and BTRs). Most were destroyed or abandoned.
- Approximately five APCs (mainly NTLBs)
Andrew Perpetua's Expertise
🎦 05:46-06:30⏩
- Jonathan speculates that Andrew Perpetua and his team member "Geek" must have watched more video footage than anyone else on the planet and have possibly seen more videos of the war than any other human being on Earth and as a result, when he casts an opinion it is based on a great deal of visual evidence.
- Jonathan feels Perpetua has surpassed any kind of formal analytical benchmark by now.
Russian Personnel Issues
🎦 06:30-12:04⏩
- Jonathan observes that whilst publications frequently state that Ukraine is holding back the Russians with drones, they rarely mention the huge numbers of Russian troops that are being lost.
- There are many anecdotes from captured Russian soldiers that suggest that after being mobilised they are receiving very little training before being sent to the front line.
- A thread from Chris O'Wickey suggests that over 1,000 soldiers from the Volgograd-based 20th Guards Motor Rifle Division (one of the worst in Russia's army) have deserted, including 858 contract soldiers, 150 mobilised soldiers, 2 conscripts, 26 junior officers, a major, and 2 lieutenant colonels. The majority of deserters are sent back to fight, often being assigned to assault units (with a high probability of being killed) as punishment. Senior deserters are often forgiven.
- Jonathan mentions the revolving door of helicopters that were based at Chernobyl airbase near Kherson which was hit by HIMARS numerous times. This division was operating in this area.
- Chris O'Wickey notes that the high number of desertions from this division will undoubtedly have harmed its readiness. Military analyst, Yann Matveev, advises against overestimating the effect of 1,000 desertions as Russia loses this many soldiers daily, but they are nevertheless still able to continue their offensive. Jonathan believes the Ukrainians are also experiencing high levels of desertions.
- The Euromide press has reported that Russian forces are continuing to advance despite losing up to 730,000 troops in the conflict (figure based on Ukrainian figures). The typical Russian recruit has a life expectancy of one month after signing up to fight in Ukraine.
Ukrainian Special Forces strike in Crimea
🎦 12:04-13:22⏩
- Ukraine's GUR have successfully destroyed a Russian Podlet-K1 radar system (valued at around $5m) in Crimea. The mobile radar is used to detect low altitude targets and guides the S-300 and S-400 air defence systems. Jonathan highlights this as very useful as the Podlet is expensive and difficult to replace, and is used for targeting and detecting air targets at low and extremely low altitudes by the S-300 and S-400 systems.
- Ukrainian forces also destroyed a Zoopark counter-battery radar system. Several have been destroyed since the start of the war.
- Four FPV drones were used to destroy a Russian 1L219 Zupak counter-battery radar system. The value of these varies, but Jonathan has seen estimates of $10m-$24m.
Russian drone attack kills Freehusson cancer worker
🎦 13:22-15:32⏩
- A cancer worker in Freehusson was killed when a drone bombed the car she was travelling in with her husband. Her husband survived but was injured. Jonathan describes this as pure evil.
- Jonathan mentions the Toczny project, whose purpose is to document war crimes committed by Russia during the war. He mentions that Brendan Kelly has been a guest on the channel several times to talk about the project and the work being done to map the data and analyse the data and conduct investigative journalism to identify the specific units who are committing the war crimes.
Another fire in Russia
🎦 15:32-15:45⏩
- Unrelated to the war, but a paint warehouse in Ufa, Russia caught fire. Jonathan notes that this is another big fire for the Russians.
Syrian Rebels advance
🎦 15:45-19:16⏩
- Syrian rebels have reached the outskirts of Aleppo (Syria's second largest city). They are moving fast because the Russian Airforce are unable to coordinate with ground forces. Jonathan explains that Russia is assisting the Assad regime who are losing ground and the rebels are advancing closer and closer to Aleppo.
- A large quantity of armour (including T-72 tanks and BMP infantry fighting vehicles) has been captured by the rebels. Anton Gerashchenko reports that 6 villages in the Aleppo and Idlib provinces have been captured (including strategic towns) and a large Syrian regime base (Base 46) in Western Aleppo.
- Reuters have reported that Russian jets pounded newly captured areas and civilian towns. Two army sources claim at least 16 civilians were killed in the town of Atarib (in rebel held territory) after a Russian airstrike on a residential area.
- Jonathan points out on a map the areas that the rebels are expanding into and notes how close they are getting to Aleppo.
- Jonathan speculates that Russia will have to make a decision about whether to continue supporting the Assad regime and pouring resources in. These resources would be very welcome on the Ukrainian front.
- Just as Andrew Perpetua accounts for losses in Ukraine, others account for losses in Syria. Tendar compares the recent losses by the Syrian army to Russian losses in 2022 when Ukrainian forces were conducting mopping-up operations in Northern Ukraine and captured enough equipment in a few days to equate to several months worth of fighting.
Russian Troops Evacuating Tal Rifat Airbase
🎦 19:16-19:49⏩
- Russian troops have reportedly begun evacuating from the Tal Rifat airbase in Northern Aleppo. This is one area where Russia appears to be struggling and its influence may be dissipating. Jonathan notes that this is good news because in many other areas of the world (Romania, Hungary, Slovakia and the US) Russia's influence is increasing. Jonathan is particularly interested in the geopolitical situation in the US and is going to discuss this in a later video.
Analysis of recent Russian distant strikes
🎦 19:49-22:24⏩
- Jonathan is interested in the recent Russian distant strikes. Tim White has observed that no missiles were launched in the attacks.
- Russia claims to have enough missiles left for 2-3 more waves of attacks but acknowledges that these would deplete their stockpiles.
- 132 drones were launched in the latest attack: 88 shot down, 41 stopped electronically, 1 returned to Russia, and 2 drones hit their targets. Jonathan notes that Ukraine's air defences are performing well, shooting down 88 of the 132 drones.
- Whilst electronic warfare is playing a significant role in neutralising Russian drone attacks, conventional methods (shooting them down) were the most effective in this attack.
- Jonathan is interested in the German-produced Reilion turrets that fire huge amounts of lead into the air very quickly. Whilst this will be effective at shooting down drones, these rounds are expensive and it will be costly to maintain.
- Jonathan believes that Odessa is coming under increasing pressure and speculates that a couple of Skynex air defence systems located on the edge of the city would be a good idea to shoot down anything in the air. He is curious as to how effective they would be, as they only have a range of around 4km and is unsure if they would be effective against cruise missiles.
- Jonathan observes that a children's medical centre in Kyiv was damaged by debris from a downed drone during the attacks. A security guard was injured. Jonathan reminds viewers that even if drones don't hit their target, if they are blown up in the air, the debris falls to the ground and can cause damage and injuries.
Effectiveness of Ukrainian Air Defences
🎦 22:24-24:29⏩
- 12 hits were recorded in the previous day's attacks, the majority on fuel and energy sector facilities.
- 90% of Kalibr missiles were shot down when a huge wave of missiles and drones hit Ukraine. Thick fog and cloud prevented pilots and the mobile air defence teams from performing their duties effectively.
- The clear skies in the UK this morning made Jonathan think about the impact of weather on the front lines. Drones are used for reconnaissance and taking out Russian attacks and if it's not possible to visually identify drones flying through the sky (e.g. due to fog/cloud) it reduces the effectiveness of anti-aircraft guns.
Russia retains enough missiles for 2-3 further attacks
🎦 24:29-26:16⏩
- Russia retains enough missiles for 2 or 3 further large-scale attacks, according to Ukrainian Security expert, Dmitry Milo, who believes that Russia does not have the capacity to plunge Ukraine into total darkness.
- Whilst speaking at the CSTO in Kazakhstan, Putin threatened to hit decision making centres in Kyiv with high precision Russian weapons. Jonathan wonders why places where Zelensky hangs out (government buildings in Kyiv) haven't been targeted. He speculates that this could be due to bad PR for Russia (similar to attacking Red Square) or because Ukraine has protected these areas with its most effective air defences and Russia hasn't been able to get through. Jonathan assumes that Putin is referring to political rather than military decision making centres.
Putin threatens to use non-nuclear weapon of mass destruction
🎦 26:16-27:04⏩
- Putin claims Russia has developed a missile system with destructive power comparable to tactical nuclear weapons but without radioactive fallout.
- Jonathan believes that Putin is trying to threaten Ukraine and the rest of the world with a weapon of mass destruction that doesn't involve nuclear weapons and speculates that he may feel that there will be fewer repercussions if he were to use it.
Ukrainian strikes on Russian Hydrocarbon Infrastructure
🎦 27:04-29:56⏩
- There was a large fire at the Atlas oil depot in Kamensk, Russia. This oil depot was previously attacked in July or September. Jonathan remembers footage of tanks burning for a long time.
- Reports suggest that Ukrainian drones were responsible for the latest attack.
- The Ukrainian General Staff have confirmed the strike and said that it caused fires in at least 2 areas.
- In addition, Ukrainian forces have destroyed a radar station for the Buk-M3 air defence system in occupied Zaporizhzhia. Jonathan wonders whether this is the Zoopark radar system mentioned earlier or a different radar system.
- The Atlas oil depot is still burning this morning. Jonathan wonders how long it will burn for, remembering that the previous fire burned for days.
- Ukrainian drones also attacked military sites in Tuapse, Krasnodar Krai. Jonathan notes that this is the location of an oil depot or refinery, but these are not thought to be the target of the attack. He expects further information to emerge throughout the day.
Possible Ukrainian Drone strike in Crimea
🎦 29:56-30:27⏩
- Smoke has been seen in Vitino, Crimea this morning. There's a video but it's unclear what's happened. Jonathan believes that this could be more good news for Ukraine.
Chinese Vessel cutting undersea cables
🎦 30:27-35:36⏩
- The Wall Street Journal has reported that a Chinese Vessel (the Yipeng 3) with a Russian Captain cut the first cable between Sweden and Lithuania, shortly after dragging its anchor over it. The ship's transponder was turned off at the time.
- It is highly improbable that the cable was cut accidentally as the ship had turned off its transponder, but it is hard to prove beyond reasonable doubt that it was intentional, and this gives Russia plausible deniability. All propositions are probability assessments and whilst it is likely that it was Russia, there is not enough evidence to definitively prove it.
- Jonathan talks about his theories on the study of knowledge and truth (epistemology). Viewers can read about this in one of his books (non-fiction published under his real name: Jonathan MS Pearce, fiction under the pseudonym "Johnny Pearce". His book on knowledge, meaning and morality in a Godless world features a wall on the front cover.
- Shashank Joshi from The Economist believes that the cutting of the cables was intentional but acknowledges that it will be hard to attribute this to Russia without additional intelligence e.g. an intercept where orders to cut the cable are given. It is deeply frustrating that Russia is able to get away with acts like this by ensuring there is no paper trail.
- Some viewers believe that as long as it can be proven that the anchor was down, this is enough to prove gross negligence and bad seamanship and there would be no need to prove motive. The crew should have their licenses pulled and the ships certifications withdrawn. The responsible party should also be liable for the damages. Jonathan agrees and is frustrated that Russia is able to get away with these acts.
Ukrainian Intelligence Chief Budanov dismisses rumours
🎦 35:36-36:11⏩
- Ukraine's intelligence chief, Kyrylo Budanov, has dismissed rumours that he is to be dismissed as attempts to destabilise the government. Reports this week suggested that Zelensky was considering replacing him, but Budanov described this as misinformation aimed at sowing discord. Jonathan is not surprised by this.
Ukrainian State Budget 2025
🎦 36:11-36:34⏩
- Zelensky has passed the Ukrainian state budget for 2025. 62% is allocated to defence. Ukraine is on a war footing and has no choice but to allocate its budget in this way. Total expenditure is UAH 3.6 trillion. UAH 2.23 trillion is allocated to defence, UAH 0.42tn to social protection, UAH 0.22tn to health, UAH 0.2tn to education. Jonathan is surprised by these figures.
Russians execute more Ukrainian POWs
🎦 36:34-37:06⏩
- Russian forces have executed four more Ukrainian POWs near Prokrosk. Jonathan notes that this is happening on a daily basis but is not being reported in the mainstream media. Two days previously two further POWs were killed in the same area according to the Ukrainian Prosecutor General's office.
Russian crackdown on use of civilian vehicles
🎦 37:06-42:23⏩
- According to Russian milbloggers, Russian soldiers using privately owned or donated vehicles on the front line face execution along with their commanders.
- Jonathan is surprised by this news. He explains that Russia's reliance on civilian vehicles (Loafs, Bukankas, motorcycles, Scooby-Doo vans, quads) is due to huge losses of military vehicles.
- Russian Milblogger, Anastasia Kascheva-Rova, reports that the new commander of the Southern Military District has issued (verbal) orders that troops using personal vehicles will be executed along with their local commander. From the 27th November any humanitarian vehicle without registration will be confiscated and the driver and commander will be sent on assault (meat grinder). The deputy for armament of the regiment will be blamed. Issuing a combat order for personal transport will also be punishable.
- The "Mine Division" Telegram channel has reported that there is chaos amongst the units (particularly in Donetsk) and that many soldiers are afraid to speak out because they will be "reset" (executed). A soldier writing on a pro-Wagner group channel reports that work has stopped and that everyone is in shock and that the order from headquarters was issued without thinking. He claims that 70-80% of Russian front line vehicles are privately owned.
- Another source claims that his company has no official vehicles and all are privately purchased, some through sponsorship. There is no compensation for expenses. These vehicles are used to transport troops to and from the front, and to collect equipment, fuel and food and are now being confiscated by the Russian military, the military automobile inspectorate, and the military police.
- Unsurrupulous commanders are confiscating personal cars and humanitarian aid for their own personal enrichment. They are sending unwanted troops on meat grinder assaults and stealing their vehicles.
- War correspondent Alexander Sladkov reports that donated vehicles are being sold on by unscrupulous commanders, often without removing electronic warfare systems that have been installed.
Corruption in the Russian Army
🎦 42:23-42:51⏩
- The Commander of the Russian 13th Tank Regiment was found to have over RUB 40m in his bank account as a result of extorting money from people who did not want to be sent to the front line.
- Jonathan mentions another commander who was arrested for selling scrap metal, but notes that this was to get better equipment for his troops, and not for his own personal enrichment.
Woe for Russian Aviation
🎦 42:51-43:11⏩
- Another Russian-made Superjet has been stranded at Saransk airport for several hours due to engine failure. The Azimuth flight was bound for St. Petersburg. The manufacturer (UAC) has issued statements that the plane is fine. Jonathan notes that these incidents are happening continuously.
Ruble Crash
🎦 43:11-44:57⏩
- Dawn Fox (commenter on the channel) claims that the recent ruble crash was caused by the US imposing new sanctions on the Russian Gazprom Bank.
- The Russian Central Bank responded to this by stating that it would not buy any foreign currency until the end of 2024. This is an attempt to stop the ruble from falling further. Jonathan notes that whilst this might prevent anyone from observing the fall in the value of the ruble it won't stop the decline in real terms. The reality is that the ruble is being used in a way that indicates its falling value. The ruble price will appear stable (around RUB 110 to USD 1) until trading resumes. Jonathan expects it will restart with a large crater as the issues that caused the devaluation are ongoing and the Russian economy will continue to worsen.
- The actions of the Russian Central Bank will result in higher prices and this will accelerate domestic inflation. Anything that Russia wants to buy from other countries will cost more due to black market rates. Jonathan speculates that it is going to be a very hard winter for the Russian public who will bear the brunt of this as food prices increase.
Lidl is selling Ukrainian Wine
🎦 44:57-46:48⏩
- Jonathan is pleased to announce that Lidl is selling Ukrainian red and white wine. He posted a picture of this on the community tab. Jonathan explains that Lidl is a German-owned supermarket chain that operates in Europe and America.
- Jonathan went to his local Lidl last night but they only had the white wine. He was disappointed but is going to try again to find the red. A viewer (Jumpy Spider) sent a photo showing they had managed to buy a bottle, and encourages others to go to their local Lidl to buy some as not only does this support Ukraine, but also lets Lidl know that there's a market for Ukrainian products.
Wrap Up
🎦 46:48-46:51⏩
Jonathan thanks viewers for watching.
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🤖❓ AI Debrief (post task) - anything the AI didn't understand
Jonathan mentions that a figure of 730,000 Russian troop losses was based on Ukrainian figures. I could not find any other reference to this. Do you know which source Jonathan was referring to?
Jonathan mentions the "Mine Division" Telegram channel. Is it possible to clarify the correct name for this channel?
I am unable to find any reference to "Scooby Doo Vans". Can you clarify what this refers to?
What does Jonathan mean by "reverse side of the medal"?
Jonathan mentions that the Ukrainian General Staff have confirmed the strike and said that it caused fires in at least 2 areas. What are the "2 areas"?
Who is "No Report"? Is it possible to clarify the correct name/spelling?
What is "swipe text"?
Can you confirm the spelling of Anastasia Kascheva-Rova? I am unable to verify this name.
Can you confirm the spelling of Dmitry Milo? I am unable to verify this name.
🤖💭 AI Plan (pre task) - the AI's step by step thought process
This is a long transcript. It looks like it is a "Bumper News" update which means lots of topics.
TASK 1:
I need to look carefully at the YouTube title to identify the title (without date or part), date (in UK format DD/MM/YYYY) and part (if applicable). I'll use xml tags to identify these.
TASK 2:
This is the most important part of the summary. I need to read through the transcript carefully and identify the distinct topics and create a topic title for each. The first topic will be "Hello Team" and the last "Wrap up" (this rule will apply to all transcripts). There may be a lot of topics. It's important to try to be as specific and quantified as possible (e.g. not just "Military Aid" but "UK approves £2bn military aid package") and wherever possible split related topics by country/category/region/news item for more granularity rather than have one large topic.
TASK 3:
Identify the topic timeframes. As a sanity check once completed, the timeframes should cover the entirety of the video with no large gaps. If there are gaps, I'll check for mistakes/missing topics and add them in as necessary.
TASK 4:
Summarise the key points for each topic, ensuring to include enough context for each topic. I'll use bullet points/numbered lists in the summary and bold/italic/underline for emphasis if appropriate. I'll credit sources if mentioned (e.g. JR). If Jonathan offers an opinion, I'll include it. Jonathan's insights, analysis, philosophy, reasoning should be conveyed as his viewers value this. I won't add anything not in the transcript. I'll remember to include "cups of tea" if mentioned as Jonathan is a tea lover (who isn't?!).
TASK 5:
I'll read through the transcript again carefully to find a good quote. It needs to make sense when read out of context (before the rest of the summary) and can be meaningful, funny, thought provoking or philosophical.
TASK 6:
I need to be honest about anything that I did not understand from TASKS 1-5, rather than make incorrect assumptions so that these can be corrected/clarified. I will make a note if there's nothing I did not understand.
