Ukraine Conflict: Full Frontline Update

"When they take a big loss, they have to do something about it...Now, quite often they lie about things that happened...but what they have done ...Kherson appears to be the place they ...wreak havoc on... they ...seek their vengeance upon. It's like they are channeling all their vengeance towards Ukraine on Kherson, and they seem to do that quite a bit."

Hello Team

🎦 00:00-00:34⏩

Jonathan welcomes viewers to an update from Boxing Day, 26th December 2023 and flags that his mapping updates are a few days behind. Viewers who are unsure how to interpret the maps are advised to check the key by pausing the video.

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📍 FRONT-LINE UPDATE -🗺️ MAP LEGEND

Appreciation for JR's Mapping and Explanation

🎦 00:34-01:17⏩

Jonathan thanks JR for his help with mapping, mentioning that JR is recovering from COVID. Due to the delay in mapping updates, Jonathan explains that he will focus on general movements and use pins on the map. He notes significant Russian advancements, primarily attributed to their willingness to leverage "human meat waves," as described by a source. Jonathan suggests this strategy, while effective in the short term, will likely backfire due to mounting Russian casualties. He emphasizes the importance of manpower for Ukraine.

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Analysis of Russian and Ukrainian Capabilities

🎦 01:17-03:19⏩

Jonathan discusses the strategic challenges faced by both sides. He highlights that Ukraine's main hurdle is a lack of manpower, prompting changes in conscription laws to address the issue. Conversely, Russia, despite inferior training and equipment, leverages its vast reserves of manpower to gain ground. Jonathan acknowledges the effectiveness of this strategy in the past, particularly during World War II, but questions its long-term sustainability.

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Potential Tipping Point in Russia

🎦 03:19-04:08⏩

Jonathan speculates on a potential turning point in the conflict. He posits that the mounting Russian casualties could eventually lead to significant domestic unrest, pressuring the Russian government. While acknowledging that such complaints are currently suppressed, he believes a critical mass of casualties could shift public opinion against the war.

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Ukraine's Strategy for the Winter

🎦 04:08-06:26⏩

Jonathan analyzes Ukraine's strategic options for the winter campaign. He suggests that withstanding the winter, inflicting heavy losses on Russian forces, and waiting for an opportune moment for a counteroffensive might be the optimal strategy. He acknowledges previous miscalculations regarding Russian defenses and emphasizes the need for sufficient resources, particularly long-range munitions like Storm Shadow and SCALP missiles, to weaken the Russian military before launching any large-scale offensive operations.

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Frontline Update: Kupiansk and Svatove

🎦 06:26-08:05⏩

Jonathan turns to specific frontline developments, starting with the Kupiansk and Svatove sectors. He notes heavy Russian attacks near Synkivka, where Ukrainian resistance has inflicted significant losses on Russian mechanized units. Despite this, Russia has made notable gains near Terny, west of Kreminna, pushing westward towards the Zherebets River.

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Frontline Update: Bilohirka

🎦 08:05-11:22⏩

Jonathan examines the situation around Bilohirka, highlighting its challenging terrain. He observes that while Russian forces have advanced closer to the town, the Ukrainians are capitalizing on the topography, which features elevated areas and a large quarry, to impede their progress. Despite these defensive positions, he acknowledges the possibility of Russian advances towards the Siverskyi Donets River.

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Frontline Update: Bakhmut

🎦 11:22-19:47⏩

Jonathan shifts focus to the Bakhmut sector, describing it as highly volatile. He points to Russian gains in the northern part of the city, particularly near Berkhivka and Yahidne, pushing beyond the lines held during the May counteroffensive. The Russians have established a significant buffer zone around Bakhmut, reducing the Ukrainians' ability to target them effectively. He notes a stalemate in the trench networks west of Klishchiivka, emphasizing its strategic importance for controlling the town itself. Jonathan observes Ukrainian counterattacks east of Klishchiivka, potentially aiming to reach a secondary Russian defense line near Odradivka. He concludes the Bakhmut update by highlighting Russian gains near Kurdyumivka, east of a canal system in the area.

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Frontline Update: Avdiivka

🎦 19:47-25:14⏩

Jonathan moves on to Avdiivka, noting a relative lack of changes in the main combat zone. However, he observes Russian advances northwest of Krasnohorivka, pushing towards the railway line leading to Novobakhmutivka. He mentions a potential third wave of Russian assaults aimed at capturing Avdiivka. Jonathan highlights the significance of Ukrainian forces retaking some positions near Klishchiivka, indicating ongoing contested fighting.

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Frontline Update: Mariinka

🎦 25:14-26:33⏩

Jonathan discusses the situation around Mariinka, revealing significant changes. He reports that Russian forces have effectively captured the town, with Ukrainian troops withdrawing from its western outskirts, a development confirmed by Ukrainian sources. The destruction in Mariinka is described as extensive. He suggests that the Russians will likely target Pobeda, a strategically important settlement south of Mariinka, as it sits on a vital road connecting Kostyantynivka and could allow Russia to encircle Ukrainian positions.

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Frontline Update: Novomykhailivka

🎦 26:33-28:16⏩

Jonathan provides an update on Novomykhailivka, where Russia has made significant gains. He highlights the effectiveness of Russia's relentless FAB-500 bombing campaign, which has devastated the town's infrastructure. However, he reveals a notable decrease in Russian air activity in the area, possibly due to Ukrainian air defenses successfully downing several Russian aircraft. Despite this, the town is expected to face continued ground assaults and artillery attacks.

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Frontline Update: Southern Frontline

🎦 28:16-29:08⏩

Jonathan shifts his focus to the Southern Frontline, reporting a relative stalemate with no significant changes in territorial control. He does mention a curious incident where Russian prisoners of war willingly surrendered to Ukrainian forces near Robotyne, suggesting potential morale issues within the ranks.

Frontline Update: Kinburn Spit

🎦 29:08-32:34⏩

Jonathan turns his attention to the Kinburn Spit, where Ukrainian forces maintain a bridgehead. He presents conflicting reports on the situation, with some sources indicating a Russian squeeze on the bridgehead while others suggest minor Ukrainian gains. He then presents an update from December 24th, detailing a significant increase in Russian troop presence on the Kinburn Spit, growing from 64,000 to 74,000, while noting a decline in artillery systems due to Ukrainian counter-battery fire. Despite challenges, the bridgehead serves as a strategic asset for Ukraine, drawing in and degrading Russian forces, particularly mechanized units, which are vulnerable to Ukrainian drone attacks.

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Kherson: The "Whipping Boy"

🎦 32:34-35:27⏩

Jonathan discusses the relentless shelling of Kherson city. He connects this with potential Russian retaliation for their recent military setbacks, likening it to a "vengeance" campaign. He suggests that Russia often responds to significant losses by striking Kherson with intensified artillery and missile attacks.

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Wrap Up

🎦 35:27-35:57⏩

Jonathan concludes the update, acknowledging that the analysis might be somewhat disjointed due to delays in mapping information. He expresses his intent to provide a more comprehensive update in the following days and encourages viewers to like, subscribe, and share the video.

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