Ukraine War Update NEWS: Geopolitical News - Canada 2% GDP, Trump Nonsense, EU Sanctions
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This summary has been produced automatically by an AI Large Language Model (LLM) without any human intervention. Whilst every effort has been made to prompt the LLM to produce accurate output, there may be inconsistencies, inaccuracies or hallucinations!
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Hello Team
🎦 00:00-00:29⏩
Jonathan M.S. Pearce welcomes viewers to this geopolitical news update, part two for 10th June 2025. He notes the recent high volume of breaking news, which has delayed geopolitical updates, but this video will cover the war's global ripples.
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Germany: Mertz's meeting with Trump and Russia's rearmament
🎦 00:30-02:17⏩
- German Chancellor Mertz met with Donald Trump at the White House. Jonathan observed Mertz's readiness for Trump's signature strong handshake, successfully pulling back his hand rather than letting Trump control it.
- Trump offered Germany US gas deals but made no promises on Ukraine aid or sanctions against Russia, effectively achieving nothing for Ukraine from the meeting.
- According to the Kyiv Independent, Trump dodged questions on additional Russia sanctions by boasting about ending Nord Stream 2 and hinting at future energy deals with Germany.
- Mertz reported to a business conference in Berlin (via Reuters) that some US lawmakers "do not understand the scale of Russia's rearmament campaign," suggesting a lack of awareness in the US concerning Russia's military buildup.
Germany to counter Russian disinformation and cyberattacks
🎦 02:46-05:07⏩
- Spravdy reports that Germany is finally starting to counter Russian disinformation and cyberattacks. German MP Roderich Kiesewetter has called for urgent measures, including:
- Expelling remaining Russian agents and diplomats.
- Shutting down Russian-linked institutions, such as the Russia House in Berlin (operated by a sanctioned individual).
- Restricting visas and banning propaganda events or speakers.
- Blocking Kremlin propaganda portals in Germany.
- Jonathan believes these measures are sensible and should have been implemented long ago, advocating for a tough stance against Russia across all domains—cultural, economic, etc.
- Kiesewetter also proposed a "disinformation alert" app, similar to Germany's Nina emergency system, to warn citizens in real-time about Russian disinformation. He also suggested creating a dedicated agency for countering hybrid disinformation using institutional responses to Russia's systematic destabilisation attempts.
- Jonathan strongly supports these ideas, emphasising that countering disinformation is "one of the biggest threats to our existence at the moment," capable of affecting people daily through online information consumption. He asserts that every nation needs tangible tools and policies to address this critical issue.
Lithuania criticises Germany on sanctions and EU's 18th sanctions package
🎦 05:07-05:50⏩
- Lithuanian President Nausėda criticised German Chancellor Mertz for failing to deliver on promised sanctions against Russia after it ignored a ceasefire ultimatum. The expectation was for joint EU-US sanctions, but this "failed."
- Nausėda stated to German newspaper Bild that this failure undermines trust in both sanctions and overall support for Ukraine, urging tougher EU action.
- An 18th EU sanctions package is reportedly being finalised.
Russian drone sightings near German military facilities and NATO Article 5 concerns
🎦 05:58-07:08⏩
- Anton Gerashchenko reports increasing sightings of drones off the German coast and near military facilities. Western intelligence services suspect Russia, according to investigations by German media (WDR, NDR, Süddeutsche Zeitung).
- A specific case mentioned is the cargo ship HAV Dolphin, which, after repairs in Kaliningrad, anchored for eight days in the Bay of Kiel near Germany's first flotilla. German authorities inspected the ship after drones were spotted but found no drones, though the seven-member crew consisted entirely of Russian citizens.
- Over 100 drone sightings have been reported along the German coastline. European security services believe some of these drones are launched from civilian ships belonging to Russia's "Shadow Fleet."
- Jonathan notes that German intelligence services also indicate Russia is testing NATO's resolve and no longer fears Article 5, perceiving it as practically redundant. He finds this "hugely worrying."
Hungary's Orban's shifting stance on Russia and Zelensky's criticism
- Jonathan discusses Viktor Orban's seemingly sudden shift in rhetoric towards Russia, questioning if it's a genuine change or simply "playing both sides" due to EU funding pressure or declining poll numbers against Peter Magyar's opposition party.
- In a French interview, Orban stated that "force is the only language the Russians understand, and Europe must be strong," adding that Europe needs to negotiate from a position of strength, which it currently lacks, necessitating American support. This is a stark contrast to his previous statements.
- Orban also claimed there is no risk of a general war in Europe because "the Russians are too weak for that" and "aren't even capable of defeating Ukraine," thus "aren't capable of truly attacking NATO." Jonathan surprisingly agrees with this assessment, believing Ukraine is effectively degrading Russian forces.
- A user, Trento Lankan, suggests Orban's shift might be due to Hungarian intelligence on Russia's precarious wartime economy, citing 213% potato price inflation as an indicator of a lack of foreign exchange reserves. Jonathan speculates Orban might be realising Europe has deeper pockets and is a better long-term ally.
- Jonathan highlights that Russia's currency, gold, and wealth reserves are being "absolutely destroyed" with each passing month of the war, while Ukraine benefits from extensive international aid. He cautions, however, that Orban still "fawns over Putin" in some contexts, suggesting a complex, possibly pragmatic, approach rather than a complete ideological shift.
Zelensky's concerns over Orban's campaign tactics and Hungarian intelligence activities in Ukraine
🎦 12:27-13:52⏩
- In an impactful interview with a Hungarian liberal media organisation, President Zelensky accused Orban of using his image and Ukraine's situation in political campaigns without permission. This refers to a poster campaign implying Zelensky and Ursula von der Leyen dictate Hungary's future.
- Zelensky also revealed that Hungarian agents recently sought locations of air defence systems and military units in Ukraine's border regions. This ties into a previous political spat where Hungarians were arrested in Transcarpathia, leading to reciprocal arrests of former diplomats in Hungary.
Slovakia's parliament opposes new Russian sanctions
🎦 13:52-14:45⏩
- Slovakia's parliament urged the government to oppose new Russian sanctions, arguing that existing sanctions have raised energy prices, disrupted supply chains, and harmed Slovak industry.
- A pro-Russian coalition party backed a resolution allowing PM Fico to opt out of sanctions, which passed with 51 of 76 votes. Despite this rhetoric, Fico has so far supported all EU sanctions packages.
- Fico stated Slovakia would block any EU sanctions against Russia if they infringe on the country's interests, indicating he's creating "elbow room" not to support future measures.
EU's 18th sanctions package targeting Russia's energy revenues and military industry
🎦 14:49-17:43⏩
- The EU's 18th sanctions package proposes restrictions on nine individuals and 33 legal entities, focusing on Russia's energy revenues and military industry (reported by Radio Liberty and MAKS24).
- The package aims to include companies managing "Shadow Fleet" vessels (both Russian and third-country, e.g., UAE, Mauritius, Hong Kong) and even the captain of a Shadow Fleet vessel.
- Crucially, it proposes reducing the oil price cap from $60 to $45 per barrel to further reduce Russian energy revenues.
- The EU also plans to officially ban the use of Russian energy infrastructure, including Nord Stream pipelines, which Jonathan notes could make it harder for the US to revive them, despite Trump's past claims and potential American interests in restarting them.
- Jonathan hopes these sanctions will be "really harsh," especially as they were touted as a strong response to Russia's refusal of a ceasefire. He expresses concern that if it's only an "incremental little push," it won't live up to previous threats from figures like Mertz.
- The Lithuanian Foreign Minister stresses that only 40% of Russia's capacity is currently sanctioned, urging the EU to "step up" as there's "a lot of spare capacity" for further sanctions.
Western firms' tax payments to Russia during the full-scale war
🎦 17:44-18:46⏩
- An investigation by 'Follow the Money' reveals that Western firms have reportedly paid at least $46 billion in taxes to Russia over the past three years during the full-scale invasion of Ukraine.
- Jonathan notes that while $46 billion sounds substantial, the figure lacks context without knowing the previous annual tax income from European nations to Russia. He believes that even if it's a reduction, "any money going to the Russian coffers is too high," stressing the need to scale back economic activity with Russia.
Sabotage of communication towers in Sweden
🎦 18:47-19:22⏩
- Sweden has experienced serious sabotage, with unknown individuals damaging over 30 communication towers. In all instances, attackers cut cables and damaged important elements without stealing any equipment.
- Jonathan considers this a "serious matter" and asks any Swedish viewers for insights on the situation and who might be responsible.
Baltic states demand concrete NATO steps for Ukraine and 2030 EU membership deadline
🎦 19:22-21:04⏩
- Estonia, Latvia, and Lithuania have collectively demanded concrete NATO steps for Ukraine's accession and set a 2030 deadline for Ukraine's EU membership.
- Jonathan praises the Baltics for their strong support, noting their demand for concrete steps "goes against like the US and some other nations" who have offered rhetoric but little tangible progress on Ukraine's NATO path.
- He recalls that promises of a "map for accession" to NATO under the Biden administration years ago also remained mere rhetoric, making the Baltics' current demands for action entirely justified.
Poland's President-elect Nawrocki on Ukraine's EU accession and Polish anti-Russian stance
🎦 21:05-23:49⏩
- Poland's President-elect Nawrocki stated he opposes Ukraine's EU accession at the moment, but acknowledges the strategic and geopolitical need to support Ukraine. Jonathan describes this as "having his cake and eating it."
- Nawrocki declared Russia a "post-imperialist, neocommunist state led by the war criminal Vladimir Putin."
- Jonathan explains that Nawrocki, despite being a populist right politician (and former football hooligan), shares the anti-Soviet/anti-Russian stance common among Poland's Law and Justice (PiS) party, similar to President Andrzej Duda. This differs from the Confederation Party, which is more pro-Russian.
- Poland has bipartisan support for Ukraine due to its historical relationship with Russia. Jonathan contrasts this with Hungary, suggesting Orban's party has likely benefited financially from Russia, drawing Hungary into Russia's "sphere of influence," unlike Poland.
Human rights abuses in Georgia: Kidnapping and threats against opposition leader's family
🎦 23:50-25:51⏩
- Jonathan laments the deteriorating situation in Georgia, noting he hasn't reported on it recently, possibly reflecting that continuous protests akin to Euromaidan haven't sustained against the government's "long game."
- Marika Mikyashvili (whom Jonathan has interviewed) reported that the husband of UNM Georgia Chair Tina Bokuchava, Kote Yoseliani, was kidnapped, blindfolded, and threatened, with his three children also threatened.
- The kidnappers demanded a public apology from Yoseliani to Uta Ivanishvili, son of billionaire oligarch Bidzina Ivanishvili (founder of the Georgia Dream Party), for comments made eight years ago and for which he already apologised in 2018.
- Tina Bokuchava believes the true motive behind this "Kadyrov-style intimidation" is to frighten her, as she is an "unyielding, principled and resourceful leader." Jonathan concludes that opposition parties and their families are being "hounded."
German intelligence warns Russia will test NATO's resolve
🎦 25:52-26:47⏩
- Anton Gerashchenko reports that Bruno Karl, the German Foreign Intelligence Chief, stated Russia is "determined to test the resolve of the NATO alliance," including by extending confrontation beyond Ukraine's borders.
- Reuters reports Karl's warning that Russia might send "little green men" to test NATO. The Federal Intelligence Service has "clear intelligence indications" that Russian officials believe NATO's collective defence obligations (Article 5) "no longer had practical force."
- Jonathan finds this "hugely worrying," interpreting it as Russia perceiving Article 5 as "practically redundant."
Canada extends duty-free imports for Ukraine and pledges 2% GDP defence spending
🎦 26:48-32:07⏩
- Canada has extended its duty-free import regime for Ukrainian goods for another year, giving Ukrainian producers continued access to its market. This contrasts with the EU, which has reinstituted tariffs on Ukrainian produce.
- This preferential regime, introduced in 2022, has already seen Ukrainian imports to Canada surpass $35 million, saving Canadian importers $8.5 million in duties. The extension is expected to save another $1.2 million and create new opportunities for Ukrainian exporters in North America. Ukraine's total exports to Canada reached $152 million in 2024.
- While grateful for Canada's "systemic support" (military, energy, financial, diplomatic), Jonathan notes widespread criticism of Canada's historically low defence spending within NATO. He concedes Donald Trump has a point about Canada "riding on America's coattails."
- Canadian PM Mark Carney has pledged to boost defence spending, hitting NATO's 2% of GDP target five years ahead of schedule. He states this is a move to reduce dependency on the US in a "dangerous and divided world." Canada spent 1.45% of GDP on defence last year.
- Carney pledged to divert billions to domestic manufacturers, framing it as an "economic stimulus package" and a way for Canada to "show some national spine, economic spine." He highlights the vulnerability of relying on other countries for national security.
- Carney disclosed that only one of Canada's four submarines is seaworthy and less than half of its maritime fleet and land vehicles are operational. He acknowledged that while the US is Canada's closest ally, Trump's protectionist tariffs and threats to Canadian sovereignty "had cast a shadow over the future of that relationship."
Canada's integrated defence and economic strategy
🎦 32:08-33:38⏩
- Jonathan further explains Canada's decision to boost defence spending as an integrated defence, industrial, and economic strategy. He links it to the broader trend of the EU discussing a potential "EU army," as it's difficult to separate economic, trade, and security elements of governance.
- Mark Carney stated Canada would invest in new submarines, aircraft, ships, armed vehicles, artillery, radar, and drones, rebuilding "with Canadian steel, Canadian aluminium and Canadian workers." Jonathan views this as a "nationalistic drive, economic drive" to meet NATO targets while asserting domestic strength and standing up to the US.
Ukraine hopes for Trump-Zelensky meeting at G7 summit
🎦 33:38-34:32⏩
- Ukraine hopes for a meeting between Donald Trump and President Zelensky during the G7 meetings in Canada, scheduled in five days.
- Andriy Yermak, head of the Ukrainian presidential office, confirmed Zelensky's plan to meet Trump in Alberta. Yermak's recent trip to Washington was partly aimed at arranging this high-level meeting.
Japan defies sanctions by purchasing Russian oil with blacklisted tankers
🎦 34:32-34:52⏩
- A Bloomberg report indicates that Japan has purchased 600,000 barrels of Russian oil using blacklisted tankers, thus defying US and EU sanctions. Jonathan expresses frustration, hoping this issue will be resolved.
Trump's manufactured chaos and Elon Musk's Starlink security concerns
🎦 34:52-38:43⏩
- Jonathan discusses how the "LA riots" have distracted from other news, particularly the escalating conflict between Elon Musk and Donald Trump. He alleges that Trump "manufactured" the unrest in LA, creating a problem (a few burning cars) that didn't necessitate federal troops or Marines, then appearing to "solve" it with a "law and order" crackdown.
- He argues this whips up dissent, justifies the military presence, and allows protesters to be falsely associated with looters, painting them as criminals. This, he says, is a cyclical pattern of creating chaos to then appear strong, particularly against "democratic states" like California. He references James O'Brien's LBC commentary on this manufactured situation.
- Amidst this, a story (reported by Pekka Kalyaniani) was overlooked: White House security staff warned that Elon Musk's Starlink poses a security risk. Starlink connections in the White House bypass controls against leaks and hacking. Jonathan suggests Musk's interest in government data could be linked to Palantir (Peter Thiel). The Daily Beast reported that Musk's "goons" transmitted large amounts of undetected data via a Starlink Wi-Fi terminal installed on the White House, which is "highly, highly controversial."
US sanctions bill on Russia and Trump's efforts to weaken it
🎦 38:43-41:03⏩
- Jonathan confirms earlier reports that Donald Trump wants to "water down" the "bone-crushing" Russian sanctions bill proposed by Richard Blumenthal and Lindsey Graham. This bill includes secondary sanctions on nations trading with Russian hydrocarbons.
- Politico reports that the bill will undergo "significant changes" as it moves through Congress, with consultations with the Trump team potentially delaying it.
- Jonathan notes that while Bill Browder argues the sanctions wouldn't affect Americans, others contend that proposed "500% tariffs on countries that buy Russian energy" (like India and China) could cut the US off from major trade partners, exacerbating an existing trade war.
- The Finnish Prime Minister, Orpo, publicly criticised Trump's reported attempts to weaken the sanctions bill, but Jonathan doubts this criticism will sway "those that matter in the United States."
Trump's detrimental actions and rhetoric towards Ukraine
🎦 41:04-43:54⏩
- Jonathan unequivocally states that Donald Trump is "absolutely bloody not" the right person for Ukraine, citing a list of his actions:
- No military aid sent to Ukraine that wasn't first approved by the Biden administration.
- Withheld intelligence and paused military aid at a critical time (possibly without full White House awareness).
- Refused to call Russia the aggressor.
- Eased sanctions on Russia and weakened enforcement.
- Called Zelensky a "dictator."
- Removed anti-drone weapons and for a long time refused to sell air defence systems or F-16 spare parts to Ukraine.
- Diverted 70,000 missile fuses meant for Ukraine to the Middle East.
- Tried to "loot Ukraine" through a shady minerals deal (which Zelensky rejected).
- Repeatedly praised Putin and criticised Zelensky, often blaming Zelensky instead of Putin for the war.
- Jonathan refers to Trump as "Agent Krasnov," underscoring his belief that Trump is not a friend of Ukraine.
- Zelensky has publicly stated that Trump believes Putin is "winning the war," which Zelensky refutes, arguing that losing a million people for a few thousand kilometres is "not a victory." Zelensky has also pointed out that Ukraine has accepted every proposal from the Trump administration for peace, while Russia has not supported a single one, highlighting Russia's true unwillingness to end the war.
Zelensky on Russia's unwillingness for peace and Trump's political playbook
🎦 43:54-44:25⏩
- Zelensky, fed up with being "bad-mouthed," asserts that Ukraine has complied with all demands, while Russia has made no compromises. He challenges the notion of who truly doesn't want peace, concluding it's "obviously the Russians... Putin doesn't want peace."
- Jonathan, referencing Pekka Kalyaniani, draws a parallel between Trump's use of troops in LA (creating chaos to justify a strong federal response) and "what Putin did in Russia in the early 2000s." He warns that if this "playbook" isn't challenged, the US "could become a fully authoritarian state within the next five years," a concern shared by many.
Trump's distorted view of WWII and philosophical critique of causality
🎦 44:27-51:10⏩
- Jonathan discusses Trump's "weird" and "deeply narcissistic" public statements, specifically his claim during calls with world leaders (including Putin and Macron) that the US "won the war" in WWII and wasn't celebrating it.
- Jonathan finds this "overly simplistic" and uses a philosophical analogy of causality (borrowing from JL Mackie's "INUS conditions" and a house fire example) to explain why it's inaccurate to attribute the outcome of WWII to a single cause. He argues that the US's involvement was a "necessary but insufficient" causal variable. Many factors contributed, including:
- Germany fighting on two fronts.
- The UK's island status and the Battle of Britain preventing invasion.
- The vast contributions and immense casualties of the Soviet Union (26 million, not Trump's inflated 51 million).
- Contributions from other nations like Canada, Australia, New Zealand, India, and Czech pilots in the Battle of Britain.
- Jonathan criticises Trump for consistently inflating numbers, giving "props" to Russia over Europe, and effectively dismissing Europe's role in the war, suggesting it aligns with a "age of empires" worldview where Europe is to be "carved up between the US and Russia."
Further discussion on WWII contributions and Trump's comments on US military fort names
🎦 51:36-53:51⏩
- Jonathan continues to challenge Trump's simplistic narrative of WWII, emphasising the crucial role of the French and British soldiers in WWI, drawing a parallel to how the UK held out against the Germans in WWII, enabling the D-Day landing from its territory.
- He argues that each nation learns history through its own biases, and it's essential to realise that victory was a "confluence of all sorts of events and activities and desires."
- Trump also criticised the changing of names of US military forts (e.g., Fort Bragg), associating them with winning wars and implying that changing names is "politically correct" nonsense. Jonathan highlights that these names were often associated with the Confederacy and advocacy for slavery, making Trump's defence of them problematic.
US charges Russian for cryptocurrency laundering and tech acquisition
🎦 53:51-54:30⏩
- US prosecutors have charged Russian cryptocurrency entrepreneur Yuri Gugnin with laundering over $500 million and helping sanctioned Russian entities bypass export controls.
- Between June 2023 and January 2025, Gugnin used his company to facilitate approximately $530 million through the US financial system. Jonathan hopes this loophole has been closed and the individual apprehended.
Ukrainian sentiment towards US and UK's role in Russian LNG exports
🎦 54:31-55:14⏩
- Jonathan shares a "very interesting viewpoint" from some Ukrainians who state they "feel better now with the certainty that the US has abandoned us," allowing them to "move on from your traps, slurs, maneuvers, and posturing." This reflects a sentiment among some Europeans of needing to "move past the US" if its support is unreliable.
- Jonathan reveals "absolutely shocking" information: since the full-scale invasion, 76% of all Russian LNG exports have been carried on UK-owned or insured vessels. He calls this "bloody trade financing Russia's war of terrorism against Ukraine" and demands the UK government "must act now."
UK-Kazakhstan military cooperation and Russian reaction
🎦 55:29-57:53⏩
- The UK government has approved a plan for military cooperation with Kazakhstan for 2025-2026. This primarily involves training Kazakh troops in British military schools, English language training, and preparation for peacekeeping missions.
- Jonathan notes this is a relatively small investment for the UK (around £50 million) but part of a broader effort by Western nations to increase influence in Central Asia, an area where China is already highly active with successful influence operations. He suggests the West has been "behind a curve" in this region.
- The cooperation has "wound up the Russians," with Russian Z-bloggers "fuming over Kazakhstan's betrayal" despite Kazakhstan's membership in the Russia-led CSTO (Collective Security Treaty Organization).
Netherlands orders 1,000 Ukrainian refugees to leave
🎦 57:54-58:14⏩
- Euromaidan Press reports that the Netherlands has ordered 1,000 Ukrainian war refugees to leave the country within four weeks. These are non-EU citizens (students, workers) who escaped the war zone and were granted temporary protection since 2022, which is now ending.
French President Macron's visit to Greenland
🎦 58:15-59:19⏩
- The Elysée Palace announced that French President Emmanuel Macron will make an official visit to Greenland on 15th June to strengthen cooperation with the autonomous Danish territory. This comes after Donald Trump previously expressed interest in acquiring Greenland.
- Macron will meet jointly with Greenland's Prime Minister Jens Frederik Nielsen and Denmark's Prime Minister Mette Frederiksen. He will be the first foreign head of state to visit Greenland since Trump's annexation threat.
- Discussions are expected to cover North Atlantic and Arctic security, climate change, energy transition, and critical mineral supply security. Macron stated, "The deep sea areas are not for sale and no more than Greenland, Antarctica or international waters are for sale," which Jonathan sees as "interesting positioning" against "American imperialism," potentially "poking the eye of the Americans."
Moscow forum of pro-Russian figures and their rhetoric
- Jonathan highlights a recent forum in Moscow attended by what he calls a "whole bunch of wingnuts" and "pure scum," including Elon Musk, George Galloway, Jeffrey Sachs, Alex Jones, and facilitated by Alexander Dugin (a "genocide advocating ultra nationalist philosopher"). Russian MFA head Sergei Lavrov also attended.
- This "who's who of other names" demonstrates their strong alignment with the "Russian sphere of influence." Jonathan expresses dismay, particularly at Jeffrey Sachs's continued participation in such circles.
- He mentions Elon Musk "waxing lyrical" about Moscow being "the centre of the world," an "amazing city," and "the best city on Earth," while praising Russians as "some of the smartest people in the world."
- Jonathan also notes that Australian pro-Ukraine activist Drew Pavlou publicly debated Alex Jones, who "refused to condemn Russia for the mass kidnap and deportation of tens of thousands of Ukrainian children," instead "ranting about LGBT Democrat child trafficking." Jonathan concludes that these individuals (Musk, Trump, Jones) are "peas in the same pod," never condemning Russia's actions. He commends Pavlou for confronting such disinformation.
Wrap up
- Jonathan concludes the video by thanking viewers for their support and encouraging those who haven't yet subscribed to do so.
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