Ukraine War Update NEWS: Pt 1 - Overnight & Other News
🤖
This summary has been produced automatically by an AI Large Language Model (LLM) without any human intervention. Whilst every effort has been made to prompt the LLM to produce accurate output, there may be inconsistencies, inaccuracies or hallucinations!
Table of Contents 📖
"Concentrate on the little things and they tell you quite a lot."
Hello Team
🎦 00:00-00:14⏩
Jonathan welcomes viewers to another ATPG video, kicking off the Ukraine War News Update for the 9th of May 2024.
Return to top⤴️
🪦 DISCLAIMER FOR GENERAL STAFF LOSSES DATA
- These are real people with real lives and real families who love them. Don’t let the numbers sap your humanity.
- These numbers probably aren’t accurate but they’re the best we have and we don’t need them to be accurate to be indicative of patterns of activity.
- All losses are estimates. Losses cannot be counted with accuracy because of the conditions on the ground.
- Both sides would see it to be of their advantage to minimize their own losses maximize the other side’s losses.
- Neither side releases their losses but we have enough transparency from the Ukrainian side to have confidence in they are indicative.
- Personnel losses are hard to count. If a soldier gets injured, heals up, and returns to the front line only to get injured again, is that one loss or two? Also, how to deal with losses from PMC’s or soldiers fighting with RF from occupied territories?
- Equipment losses are hard to count. If an AA complex involves several parts and one part gets disabled, is that a loss, or a fraction of a loss? If a tank gets disabled, repaired, back into the fight, then disabled again, is that one lost tank or two?
- All recorded losses are vulnerable to multiple reporting. We have already seen numerous cases of multiple drones in the air reporting the same loss from different angles as multiple engagements.
- Losses are not always reported on the same day they occurred. It is frequent that drone losses are reported at least 24 hours after other terrestrial equipment losses. Certain losses may not be reported for days or weeks for military intelligence reasons.
Ukrainian General Staff Report Heavy Russian Losses
🎦 00:14-03:23⏩
- Jonathan dives into the Ukrainian General Staff's reported Russian losses, noting they are unusually high, potentially indicating intense fighting or successful strikes.
- Personnel: 1,300 (double the average)
- Tanks: 11
- Armoured Personnel Vehicles: 35
- Artillery Systems: 23
- He acknowledges the usual caveats of these figures and encourages viewers to find the full list in the video description.
- Jonathan compares these figures with data from Andrew Perpetua's social media, which suggests Ukrainian losses are approximately 1.5 times less than Russian losses. While not ideal, he highlights the time lag between these figures and the General Staff reports. He also reminds viewers that large dumps of visual evidence can skew the daily perception.
Analysis of Ukrainian Losses from OSINT
🎦 03:23-07:01⏩
- Jonathan analyses visually confirmed Ukrainian losses from OSINT, noting the loss of several high-value targets, many to Lancet loitering munitions:
- An AIM-132 ASRAAM launcher (potentially a UK-provided Supacat system)
- A command and control vehicle
- A crane truck
- An engineering vehicle
- Two howitzers
- Several T-80 and T-64 tanks
- Two M1 Abrams tanks (damage extent unknown)
- Three Bradley Infantry Fighting Vehicles (two damaged by FPV drones, one abandoned)
- An Oncilla armoured personnel carrier (destroyed by FPV drone)
- A Humvee (destroyed by Lancet)
- He points out an increase in Bradley usage by Ukrainian forces, particularly for defensive operations.
- Jonathan emphasises that using such equipment in a war zone inevitably leads to losses, necessitating replacements.
Analysis of Russian Losses from OSINT
🎦 07:01-09:05⏩
- Transitioning to visually confirmed Russian equipment losses, Jonathan lists:
- A Tor-M2 air defence system
- Surveillance equipment
- A boat
- A TOS-1A thermobaric multiple rocket launcher (damaged)
- A T-90M tank (damaged by a Bayraktar TB2 drone)
- Other tanks (destroyed and damaged)
- Several infantry fighting vehicles
- Armoured personnel carriers
- Trucks
- Motorcycles (destroyed by drone-dropped munitions)
Reporting from Ukraine Highlights Heavy Russian Equipment Losses in Tonyanka
🎦 07:01-09:05⏩
- Jonathan discusses Reporting from Ukraine's recent issues with YouTube removing their channels for alleged violations of terms of service related to translated content. He expresses confusion over the situation, drawing parallels to other channels that use translations without issue.
- He cites a Reporting from Ukraine video showing significant Russian equipment losses in the small village of Tonyanka in the Avdiivka salient: 77 Russian vehicles compared to 5 Ukrainian vehicles.
- Jonathan uses this as further evidence that attacking forces tend to suffer higher equipment losses, particularly when compared to the open source intelligence gathered on Russian losses in Nova Dmytrivka and the Terny sector. He finds these losses unsustainable for Russia in the long run.
Debate on Effectiveness of US Aid and Impact of Equipment Losses
🎦 09:05-14:55⏩
- Jonathan questions the validity of relying solely on General Staff figures, only to be convinced by supporting evidence from OSINT investigations.
- He challenges US Secretary of Defense Lloyd Austin's statement that it's "too early" to see the effects of US aid on the front lines.
- Jonathan argues that the increased presence of HIMARS, artillery, and other equipment in Ukrainian footage suggests otherwise. He observes a surge in HIMARS footage after a period of scarcity, possibly due to previous ammunition shortages.
- He cites a Ukrainian unit claiming they have resumed firing, supported by accompanying imagery.
- Addressing a viewer's query, Jonathan notes the reappearance of footage showing Ukrainian forces using Stugna-P anti-tank guided missiles. This follows a period of limited sightings after the Russian capture of the Izium factory where they were manufactured.
- He highlights a video showcasing a Ukrainian Bradley using a TOW missile to destroy a Russian T-80 tank at long range, emphasizing the effectiveness of these systems and the significance of seeing Bradleys used in defensive operations.
Ukrainian Drone Strikes Target Russian Military Assets
🎦 14:55-17:55⏩
- Jonathan reports on successful Ukrainian strikes inside Russia, including:
- An RB-636M2 Svet-KU electronic warfare system in the Bryansk region, likely damaged by an FPV drone.
- A Russian base storing towed artillery, with satellite imagery analysis suggesting the removal of 60% of the artillery pieces.
- He highlights the growing vulnerability of Russian military assets, even within Russia's borders, as Ukrainian drones achieve longer ranges.
Andrew Perpetua's Insights on "Shoot and Scoot" Tactics and Russian Equipment Recovery
🎦 17:55-21:20⏩
- Jonathan recounts Andrew Perpetua's critique of the "shoot and scoot" tactic for artillery. Perpetua argues that self-propelled howitzers are most vulnerable when moving, making them easier targets for drones.
- Perpetua suggests that concealing howitzers in bunkers or with camouflage, a tactic more suitable for towed artillery, might be more effective.
- Jonathan ponders Perpetua's observations, acknowledging the existence of "shoot and scoot" but questioning its effectiveness given modern drone warfare.
- He shares Perpetua's anecdote about a destroyed Russian BMP infantry fighting vehicle that was later recovered. Perpetua noted the vehicle was beyond repair, prompting questions about why Russia would risk recovering scrap metal. Jonathan suggests several possibilities, including potential use in other vehicles, a scrap metal shortage, or even propaganda purposes.
- Jonathan concludes that towed artillery remains relevant in modern warfare but questions Russia's ability to sustain its supply.
Fires and Explosions in Russia
🎦 21:20-29:17⏩
- Jonathan reports on two fires in Russia:
- A large fire at a port in Petropavlovsk-Kamchatsky, over 10,000 kilometers from Ukraine, attributed to unknown causes.
- An explosion in Krasnoyarsk caused by wildfires igniting gas cylinders. Jonathan links this to his previous warnings about the increased risk of wildfires in Russia due to the deployment of conscripted firefighters to the Ukrainian front.
- He highlights two strikes on Russian oil infrastructure:
- A drone attack on the Salavat Nephorginsintes oil refinery in Bashkiria, 1,400 kilometers from the Ukrainian border, showcasing the impressive range of Ukrainian drones.
- A strike in Krasnodar Krai, near the Kerch Bridge, likely targeting an oil depot.
- Jonathan plays footage of what is reported to be Ukrainian drones targeting the Krasnodar Krai oil depot, noting the distinctive sound of the drones.
- He reports that Russian authorities claim six drones were involved in the Krasnodar Krai attack, with some being "suppressed" but others falling on the oil depot and causing a fire. Jonathan expresses skepticism about the Russian explanation, pointing out the improbability of "suppressed" drones landing directly on their target.
- Finally, Jonathan addresses footage of explosions and fires in Belgorod, suggesting they are more likely the result of Russian air defense systems engaging targets or malfunctioning rather than deliberate Ukrainian strikes on civilian infrastructure.
Updates on Energy Infrastructure, Political Intrigue, and Ukrainian Military Restructuring
🎦 29:17-37:28⏩
- Jonathan shares updates on the impact of the war:
- The Ukrainian Prime Minister reports damage to over 800 heating facilities in Ukraine from Russian attacks.
- Ukraine needs an estimated $1 billion to compensate for power generation losses and rebuild its energy infrastructure.
- Ukrainian energy officials warn that imported energy won't fully cover the deficit following recent Russian strikes.
- He touches upon Victory Day in Russia, noting the poor weather.
- Jonathan discusses rumors circulating in Russia, including:
- The potential replacement of Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu with Alexei Dyumin, the governor of Tula.
- The possible replacement of Chief of the General Staff Valery Gerasimov with Sergei Surovikin, who was sidelined after the Wagner Group mutiny.
- Surovikin is rumored to return from exile after May 10th.
- * Jonathan speculates that these rumours suggest dissatisfaction within the Kremlin with the military's performance and the Russian economy's ability to sustain the war effort. * He reports on the Ukrainian military's decision to restructure its strategic reserve, creating the 11th Army Corps consisting of four mechanized brigades, an artillery brigade, and a tank brigade. * Jonathan expresses concerns about Ukraine's ability to mobilize sufficient troops for new brigades given the ongoing need to reconstitute existing units. However, he shows footage of Ukrainian troop and vehicle formations, suggesting some level of successful mobilization. * He shares a viewer's comment suggesting the vehicles in the footage could be Kirpi armored vehicles supplied by Turkey. * Jonathan notes that while Ukraine has passed mobilization bills, their effectiveness remains uncertain, and there are concerns they are not going far enough. * On a more positive note, he highlights reports of 11,000 criminal trials being suspended due to mobilization efforts, suggesting Ukraine might be offering convicts a chance to serve in the military.
Wrap up
🎦 37:28-37:33⏩
Jonathan thanks viewers for watching and encourages them to like, subscribe, and share the video.
Return to top⤴️
🤖❓ AI Debrief (post task) - anything the AI didn't understand
What are the specific rules that Reporting from Ukraine supposedly violated on YouTube regarding translated content? The explanation provided seems unclear.
Could you clarify what a "tracked garden shed" refers to in the context of Russian military equipment?
What are "Kings Yales"? I believe this is a misspelling.
🤖💭 AI Plan (pre task) - the AI's step by step thought process
This is the first transcript I will be summarising for ATP Distilled.
Overall Approach:
Break down the task: I'll tackle each of the six tasks in order, ensuring I fully understand the requirements for each.
Accuracy and Clarity: My priority is to accurately summarise Jonathan's key points, ensuring the summaries are clear, concise, and provide sufficient context.
Jonathan's Voice: I need to reflect Jonathan's insights, analysis, and personality in the summaries. This includes his use of humour, his passion for Ukraine, and his occasional tangents, where relevant.
Respectful Language: I will use Ukrainian spellings for places in Ukraine.
Thoroughness: I will carefully review my work, double-checking the timestamps and ensuring all significant points are covered.
Queries: I will honestly record anything I don't understand for clarification.
Specific Considerations:
Topic Titles: These need to be very specific and granular, avoiding vagueness.
Ukrainian Losses: The transcript highlights some significant Ukrainian equipment losses. I will ensure these are accurately reported but maintain a balanced perspective.
Russian Losses: Jonathan often emphasizes the unsustainability of Russian losses. I will make sure this point comes across clearly.
Sourcing: I will attribute information to sources like Andrew Perpetua, OSINT, or specific Ukrainian officials, as Jonathan does in his videos.
Let's get started!
