Ukraine War Update NEWS
Table of Contents 📖
"Their understanding of liberation is rubble eyes somewhere and then stick a flag in it. If we can't have it, then you can't have it."
Hello Team
🎦 00:00-00:13⏩
Jonathan welcomes viewers to a new Ukraine War update for 2nd December 2024. He begins by reviewing the Ukrainian General Staff's figures for Russian losses from the previous day.
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Russian Losses
🎦 00:13-03:33⏩
Jonathan details the high Russian losses reported by the Ukrainian General Staff, noting the significant number of personnel (1,790), tanks, and armoured fighting vehicles. He observes that fluctuations in daily losses may be attributed to weather conditions or the exhaustion of Russian forces. Jonathan highlights the importance of considering figures related to general vehicles and fuel tanks, which often provide insight into the overall level of Russian activity. He mentions adjustments made to historical data on "Dell Stats" due to potential errors in the Ukrainian General Staff's reporting. Jonathan observes the record 30-day rolling average for Russian personnel losses, attributing it to the consistently high daily figures.
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MLRS Shortages and Russian Equipment Losses
🎦 03:33-06:54⏩
Jonathan discusses the record low number of Russian multiple launch rocket systems (MLRS) losses in November, citing Alexander Komolenko's claim that this could indicate dwindling Russian stockpiles. He suggests that the use of alternative vehicles like ATVs and motorcycles by Russian forces might further support this theory. Jonathan highlights the potential role of North Korean vehicle provisions in mitigating the impact of these losses.
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North Korean Involvement
🎦 06:54-07:39⏩
Jonathan reports Zelensky's confirmation of North Korean involvement in the war, with an estimated 12,000 North Korean troops (killed and injured) participating. Jonathan criticises Putin's reliance on foreign soldiers as cannon fodder to shield the Russian public from the true cost of the war. He acknowledges the difficulty in verifying the actual number of North Korean casualties.
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Ukraine Using Decoys
🎦 07:39-08:37⏩
Jonathan reveals that Ukraine is employing Stormer FVM mock-ups to deceive Russian forces, citing the capture of a decoy by Russian troops in Donbas. He compares the Stormer, a British tracked vehicle equipped with Starstreak missiles, to the American Avenger system, a Humvee with Stinger missile pods. Jonathan expresses his fascination with the variety of decoys used in the conflict.
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HIMARS Strike on Russian Airborne Brigade
🎦 08:37-10:49⏩
Jonathan reports on a HIMARS strike on a command post of the Russian 83rd Separate Airborne Assault Brigade in Kursk, Russia. The strike, which resulted in significant casualties, reportedly occurred during a ceremonial formation marking the brigade's anniversary. Jonathan questions the strategic decision-making behind conducting such ceremonies in vulnerable locations, suggesting potential intelligence leaks. He highlights the vulnerability of both sides to such attacks and advises conducting such events in secure locations.
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Civilian Casualties in Kherson
🎦 10:49-12:07⏩
Jonathan acknowledges the ongoing work of Brendan Kelly from Turchynyt in documenting and analysing civilian casualties in the Kherson region, with Erland from Turchynyt reporting 22 non-combatant casualties. Jonathan expresses his disgust at these war crimes and the horrific suffering inflicted upon innocent civilians.
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Fires in Russia and Ukraine
🎦 12:07-13:38⏩
Jonathan provides an update on the ongoing fire in Yekaterinburg, Russia, noting reports of explosions preceding the blaze. He highlights the use of foamed polyethylene, a key component of thermal imaging shelter and drone components, in the affected polystyrene factory. Jonathan speculates on the possibility of the fire being a targeted strike due to the material's relevance to the defence industry. He acknowledges viewer contributions suggesting potential military uses for polystyrene. Jonathan also mentions a warehouse fire in Kotsolvo, Novosibirsk, before acknowledging a devastating, but likely unrelated, fire that ravaged a market in Kyiv. He attributes such incidents to potential safety hazards or deliberate acts of sabotage.
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Drone Warfare
🎦 13:38-15:08⏩
Jonathan transitions to discussing overnight drone activity, reporting a massive Russian Shahid drone attack repelled by the Ukrainian Air Force. He commends the high interception rate, with 102 out of 110 drones neutralized through a combination of shoot-downs and electronic warfare. He acknowledges the tragic death of at least one civilian in Ternopil due to a drone strike on a residential building. Jonathan highlights the widespread impact of drone warfare and the geographical reach of Russian attacks.
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Russian Bombing in Aleppo
🎦 15:08-17:39⏩
Jonathan shows footage of Russian carpet bombing in Aleppo, Syria, drawing parallels between Russian tactics in Syria and Ukraine. He condemns the indiscriminate nature of these attacks, targeting civilian areas and infrastructure. Jonathan criticises the Russian notion of "liberation" as reducing cities to rubble and planting a flag. He highlights the deliberate targeting of hospitals and medical facilities by Russian forces, citing the example of 24 hospitals in Syria that were bombed despite their coordinates being provided to Russia. Jonathan condemns these actions as a deliberate strategy to break the spirit of the Ukrainian people by crippling their healthcare and welfare systems. He emphasises the importance of learning from the Syrian conflict and recognising the cyclical nature of Russian aggression.
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Syrian Conflict Update
🎦 17:39-19:49⏩
Jonathan provides an update on the situation in Syria, reporting on the deteriorating conditions for Russian forces. He relays Ukrainian intelligence reports indicating the withdrawal of Russian military personnel and diplomats from Damascus and the abandonment of military bases. Jonathan highlights the capture of an air defence base east of Aleppo by anti-Assad rebel troops, lamenting the potential loss of valuable military equipment that could benefit Ukraine. He satirises Putin's self-proclaimed status as a "master strategist" by pointing out the appointment of a previously failed commander in Ukraine, Alexander Chaikov, to lead Russian troops in Syria. Jonathan ridicules the decision to replace Chaikov with another commander who had failed in Ukraine, highlighting the absurdity of Putin's claims of strategic prowess.
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Impact of Attacks on Kursk
🎦 19:49-21:46⏩
Jonathan shares Andrew Perpetua's analysis of the Russian deployment in Kursk and its impact on their ability to attack Volchansk in Ukraine. Perpetua argues that Russian attacks on Kursk did divert resources and weaken their offensive capabilities in Volchansk. Furthermore, he refutes claims that international condemnation of Ukrainian strikes on Russian territory, like the Atakams missile attacks, had any significant impact. Perpetua argues that Russia's response, showcasing their expensive and ineffective Ereshnik missile system, was primarily for show and did not alter the overall strategic situation. Jonathan expresses his agreement with Perpetua's assessment.
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Putin's Decree for a Larger Army
🎦 21:46-23:08⏩
Jonathan discusses Putin's recent decree to increase the size of the Russian army by 180,000 troops, bringing the total to 1.5 million. He notes this is the third such increase since the beginning of the war. Jonathan believes this signifies Putin's intention to continue the conflict and suggests the move might be an attempt to conceal the true extent of Russian losses. He casts doubt on the effectiveness of simply expanding the army without addressing the underlying issues of morale, training, and equipment.
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Discontent in Russia
🎦 23:08-25:19⏩
Jonathan speculates on the potential for growing discontent within Russia due to the worsening economic situation and mounting casualties. He shares anecdotal evidence of Ukrainian forces finding mobile phones of deceased Russian soldiers containing messages urging relatives back home to avoid joining the army. Jonathan questions the accuracy of public opinion polls in Russia and ponders whether there is more simmering discontent beneath the surface than is apparent. He acknowledges the difficulty in gauging true public sentiment due to the suppression of dissent and the exodus of those most likely to voice opposition.
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Ukrainian Desertion
🎦 25:19-26:27⏩
Jonathan pivots to address the issue of desertion within the Ukrainian military, citing a report from Christopher Miller of the Financial Times. He highlights an interview with an officer from the 72nd Brigade, who attributed the loss of Vuhledar in Donetsk Oblast, to desertion within their ranks. Jonathan expresses his concern over the implications of these reports, particularly given the prolonged defence and strategic significance of Vuhledar.
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Zelensky on Ukraine's Military Limitations and NATO Membership
🎦 26:27-29:20⏩
Jonathan discusses Zelensky's recent statements acknowledging the Ukrainian military's current inability to retake all occupied territories. He outlines Zelensky's proposed strategy of potentially pursuing NATO membership while accepting the temporary loss of certain regions, with the aim of regaining them through diplomatic means in the future. Jonathan analyses the feasibility of this approach, highlighting the need for continued sanctions pressure on Russia even after Ukraine joins NATO. He questions the likelihood of Russia relinquishing control of these territories without significant economic pressure.
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Zelensky's Quotes
🎦 29:20-30:07⏩
Jonathan reviews key quotes from Zelensky's interview with Kyodo News. He highlights Zelensky's assessment that the war has entered a difficult phase. He also touches upon Zelensky's communication with Donald Trump and his team regarding Ukraine's position and the plan for victory.
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Analysis of Zelensky's Statements
🎦 30:07-31:10⏩
Jonathan analyses Zelensky's statement that Ukraine lacks the military strength to retake all lost territories. He suggests this, along with the increasing presence of Russian allies like North Korea, might be pushing Ukraine towards prioritising NATO membership and exploring alternative avenues for regaining lost territory. Jonathan acknowledges that this represents a shift from earlier expectations of a decisive military victory for Ukraine.
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Russian Economy
🎦 31:10-32:39⏩
Jonathan segues into a discussion about the Russian economy, highlighting a report from The Economist shared by Shashank Joshi. The report predicts a potential hard landing for the Russian economy in 2025 due to the combined effects of a declining currency and a growing budget deficit. Jonathan underscores the significance of this analysis, suggesting that the economic consequences of the war are finally catching up with Russia. He postulates that while the decline might appear gradual, a sudden and rapid implosion of the Russian economy is possible.
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Sukhoi Superjet Emergency Landing
🎦 32:39-33:32⏩
Jonathan reports on another emergency landing involving a Sukhoi Superjet aircraft in Russia. He details the incident, which occurred shortly after takeoff from Mineralny Vody airport. This incident, attributed to a fuel filter issue, follows a similar occurrence with an Azimuth airline plane. Jonathan interprets these events as further evidence of the deteriorating state of certain Russian industries, likely stemming from economic difficulties.
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Wrap up
🎦 33:32-33:38⏩
Jonathan concludes the video by reiterating his hope for a Russian economic collapse, viewing it as the most viable path to a Ukrainian victory. He expresses his gratitude to the audience for their continued viewership and support.
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