Ukraine War Update NEWS: Pt 1 - Overnight & Other News
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This summary has been produced automatically by an AI Large Language Model (LLM) without any human intervention. Whilst every effort has been made to prompt the LLM to produce accurate output, there may be inconsistencies, inaccuracies or hallucinations!
Table of Contents 📖
"To forgive, no one will forgive. This is absolutely impossible to forgive him. We cannot get into the head and soul of a person who lost their family. Nobody, nobody, never will accept this. Absolutely impossible."
Hello Team
🎦 00:00-00:24⏩
- Jonathan welcomes the team to ATP Geopolitics and introduces the Ukraine War News Update for 6th January 2025, part 1.
- Mentions that children are back at school.
- Jonathan aims to release a video about his 10 days in Ukraine from last February before his next trip to Ukraine, hoping to start working on it today, acknowledging his busy schedule.
🪦 DISCLAIMER FOR GENERAL STAFF LOSSES DATA
- These are real people with real lives and real families who love them. Don’t let the numbers sap your humanity.
- These numbers probably aren’t accurate but they’re the best we have and we don’t need them to be accurate to be indicative of patterns of activity.
- All losses are estimates. Losses cannot be counted with accuracy because of the conditions on the ground.
- Both sides would see it to be of their advantage to minimize their own losses maximize the other side’s losses.
- Neither side releases their losses but we have enough transparency from the Ukrainian side to have confidence in they are indicative.
- Personnel losses are hard to count. If a soldier gets injured, heals up, and returns to the front line only to get injured again, is that one loss or two? Also, how to deal with losses from PMC’s or soldiers fighting with RF from occupied territories?
- Equipment losses are hard to count. If an AA complex involves several parts and one part gets disabled, is that a loss, or a fraction of a loss? If a tank gets disabled, repaired, back into the fight, then disabled again, is that one lost tank or two?
- All recorded losses are vulnerable to multiple reporting. We have already seen numerous cases of multiple drones in the air reporting the same loss from different angles as multiple engagements.
- Losses are not always reported on the same day they occurred. It is frequent that drone losses are reported at least 24 hours after other terrestrial equipment losses. Certain losses may not be reported for days or weeks for military intelligence reasons.
Russian daily losses reported by Ukrainian General Staff: 1,550 personnel, 14 tanks, 45 AFVs, 62 artillery systems, 178 drones, 116 vehicles and fuel tanks
🎦 00:24-05:50⏩
- Jonathan reviews the Russian losses for the previous day according to the Ukrainian General Staff, with standard caveats about the figures' accuracy.
- Personnel: 1,550 personnel losses are considered high, though higher figures have been seen recently.
- Tanks: 14 tanks lost is significantly above the daily average of 9.26, and much higher than the 7-day (5.29) and 30-day (6.2) rolling averages. Jonathan suggests this indicates Russia's struggle to effectively use or access tanks.
- AFVs: 45 troop-carrying Armoured Fighting Vehicles (AFVs) lost is a massive loss, far exceeding the 30-day rolling average of 20.97 and the overall daily average of 19.24.
- Artillery: 62 artillery systems lost is exceptionally high, three times the daily average, contrasting with a recent drop in artillery losses reflected in the 30-day rolling average (20.33) being below the overall daily average (20.63).
- MLRS & Anti-Aircraft Systems: One Multiple Launch Rocket System (MLRS) and two anti-aircraft warfare systems were lost, with reports suggesting potentially five anti-aircraft systems in total.
- Drones: 178 drones lost is a record high, possibly due to combined losses from the last two nights.
- Vehicles and Fuel Tanks: 116 vehicles and fuel tanks lost is a phenomenal number, well above the daily average of 31.5, and close to the record high of 181. Jonathan explains that vehicle losses were initially high at the start of the war due to convoys and fuel truck targeting, then consistent truck attrition, and recently increased due to the use of SUVs and "Scooby-Doo vans", but recent trends show a slight dip, possibly due to equipment shortages. However, this single-day loss of 116 is staggering.
- Jonathan concludes that these are significant losses well above daily averages, especially for vehicles, tanks and artillery.
Ukrainian equipment losses reported by Andrew Perpetua: Command vehicles, artillery, 7 tanks, IFVs, APCs and IMVs
🎦 05:50-08:14⏩
- Jonathan switches to Ukrainian equipment losses reported by Andrew Perpetua, noting 122 personnel losses. Equipment losses are described as being at parity.
- Ukrainian losses are attributed to Russian attacks in the Kursk region, with increased combat asset losses expected.
- Command Vehicles: Ukraine lost a command vehicle and a command and control vehicle, likely due to the Kursk fighting.
- Engineering and Artillery: Losses include an M577 and a Bergepanzer (one abandoned, one damaged), and damaged artillery pieces. Lancet and Vandal drones are responsible for many of these losses.
- Tanks: Ukraine lost seven tanks (four destroyed, three damaged), mostly older Soviet models (T-64s, T-72, T-80), with no modern Western tanks lost. One tank was hit by a Lancet drone.
- Infantry Fighting Vehicles (IFVs): Three Soviet-era IFVs were lost.
- Armoured Personnel Carriers (APCs): Four APCs were lost, including a VAB, M113s, and a Stryker.
- Mine-Resistant Ambush Protected vehicles (MRAPs): MRAP losses are expected to increase in the Kursk offensives, with MaxxPros and nondescript MRAPs listed.
- Infantry Mobility Vehicles (IMVs): IMV losses include a UK Husky, Autocar Cobra (Turkish), and a Humvee.
- Two S1 decoys were also lost.
- Jonathan concludes that while Ukrainian equipment losses are notable, the ratio of destroyed versus damaged equipment is reasonably good, with more damaged than destroyed.
Russian equipment losses reported by Andrew Perpetua: IFVs, trucks, ATVs, civilian vehicles, engineering vehicle, tank, AFVs, APCs and IMVs
🎦 08:14-09:26⏩
- Jonathan reviews Russian equipment losses from Andrew Perpetua, noting a heavy list of IFV losses.
- 100% of Russian combat asset losses are categorised as "irretrievably lost", which is positive for Ukraine.
- Losses include:
- Quad bikes and civilian vehicles (used as combat assets).
- Engineering vehicle.
- One T-80 tank.
- Approximately 20 IFVs (all irretrievably lost).
- AFVs and APCs.
- Infantry Mobility Vehicle.
- Patriot vehicle.
- Jonathan notes that Russian losses are broadly in line with Ukrainian losses in terms of quantity, but heavier in IFVs, trucks, ATVs and civilian vehicles.
Ukrainian Kraken unit eliminates Chief of Staff of Russian Storm Ossetia battalion
🎦 09:26-09:45⏩
- The Ukrainian Kraken unit, using precise intelligence and FPV drones, eliminated Sergei Kamal Melnikov, Chief of Staff of the Storm Ossetia battalion, part of Russia's 429th Motorized Rifle Regiment, described as an assassination.
Two Ukrainian paratroopers capture 14 Russian soldiers; Disinformation as reason for not surrendering
🎦 09:45-11:27⏩
- Two Ukrainian paratroopers from the 79th Airborne Assault Brigade captured 14 Russian soldiers, who have been interviewed. One interviewed soldier mentioned being previously married to a Ukrainian woman.
- Jonathan discusses why many Russian soldiers do not surrender, explaining it is largely due to disinformation. They are brainwashed into believing that capture by Ukrainians means horrific torture and a fate worse than death.
- This belief is widespread among Russian soldiers, and only videos showing otherwise can potentially change their perception.
High rates of Russian soldier suicides due to fear of capture
🎦 11:27-11:45⏩
- Jonathan mentions high rates of Russian soldier suicides on the battlefield, as they prefer suicide to being captured, due to the fear of torture and the harsh realities of their situation (barrier troops preventing retreat, high probability of death going forward).
700 Russian soldiers and officers captured in Kursk since August, prisoner exchanges
🎦 11:45-12:13⏩
- The Guardian reports that since August, 700 Russian soldiers and a number of FSB officers have been captured in and around Kursk.
- Kursk has been a successful operation for Ukraine, enabling prisoner of war exchanges, including 189 Ukrainians returned just before the new year.
Russian equipment shortages and change in tactics to infantry-led assaults
🎦 12:13-13:03⏩
- Jonathan reiterates previous discussions about Russian equipment shortages, citing ISW reports and changes in Russian tactics.
- Russians are increasingly using infantry-led or unarmoured attacks with motorbikes, buggies and quads, indicating desperation for equipment.
- Russian Telegram channels and satellite imagery confirm equipment shortages at storage bases.
- Russian armoured assaults are no longer sustainable; tank company assaults are rare, and battalions have few armoured vehicles, although commanders may not fully grasp this reality.
Analysis of Russian tank and AFV losses graph trend, indicating equipment shortages
🎦 13:03-16:09⏩
- Jonathan analyses graphs of Russian tank and AFV losses over time.
- Tank Losses Graph: Shows high losses earlier in the war, spikes during Ukrainian counter-offensives (Kharkiv and Kherson), and around Avdiivka in October 2023. More recently, a downward trend in tank losses suggests Russia's reduced capacity to sustain tank warfare due to prior losses.
- AFV Losses Graph: Shows a similar trend to tank losses, with a recent tail-off, possibly indicating equipment desperation. High losses around Prokrosk are noted.
- Overall, the graphs support the narrative of Russia struggling with equipment availability, impacting their ability to conduct armoured assaults.
Ukrainian forces destroy five Russian air defence systems including Pantsir S1s, OSA and S-300s in a day
🎦 16:09-17:05⏩
- Over the past day, Ukrainian forces claim to have destroyed five Russian air defence systems.
- The Ukrainian Navy reports destroying two Pantsir S1 systems (high-value) and one older OSA system.
- Defence Forces of the South report destroying two S-300 air defence systems.
- Some of these destructions, particularly the Pantsir S1s and OSA, are reportedly captured on video, representing valuable attrition for the Ukrainians and "really good news".
Heavy fighting in Kursk: Russian overnight assault, Ukrainian counter-attack, disinformation
🎦 17:05-19:02⏩
- Jonathan reports on heavy fighting in the Kursk region.
- Russia launched a massive overnight assault in the Kursk axis two nights prior, with 32 armoured vehicles identified, 10 destroyed, and 20 Russian soldiers killed by a friend's unit.
- In response to Ukrainian counter-attacks in Kursk, Russia is engaged in disinformation, mass-boosting videos purporting to show Ukrainian vehicle destruction, which are actually videos of Russian vehicles being destroyed earlier.
- Andrew Perpetua's team (Gik) confirmed these videos are of Russian losses, geolocated, and misattributed by Russia as Ukrainian losses to mislead their audience about the Kursk offensive.
- Jonathan acknowledges likely Ukrainian losses in Kursk due to their offensive operations.
Massive Russian drone attack on Ukraine: 128 drones, 100% interception rate
🎦 19:02-19:35⏩
- There is limited information on Ukrainian strikes inside Russia, but a massive Russian drone attack on Ukraine occurred overnight.
- 128 drones were launched, and Ukraine claims a 100% interception rate: 79 shot down and 49 taken down by electronic warfare.
- Two aircraft missiles were also shot down, but success rates on missile interceptions are unclear.
Zelensky interview: North Korean soldiers, elections after war, Merkel's NATO stance
🎦 19:35-20:45⏩
- Zelensky stated in a three-hour interview that Russia could potentially deploy 300,000 to 500,000 North Korean soldiers to the war.
- Elections in Ukraine will take place immediately after the war ends.
- Zelensky criticised Angela Merkel for forcing the decision not to invite Ukraine to NATO.
- Jonathan highlights the concern that a large influx of North Korean soldiers could become a "Sisyphean rock" situation, potentially sapping Ukrainian strength and attritting Ukrainian forces despite Ukrainian successes in eliminating them.
Sersky orders drone reinforcement for 155th and Kyiv Brigade after mismanagement reports
🎦 20:45-22:20⏩
- Sersky has ordered the reinforcement of the French-trained 155th Brigade and the Kyiv Brigade with drones.
- This follows media reports of mismanagement, desertion, and losses in the 155th Brigade near Prokrosk, attributed to poor command and organisation, including a lack of drones.
- Jonathan emphasises the critical importance of drones in modern warfare, questioning why a brigade would be deployed without adequate drone support, impacting reconnaissance and offensive capabilities.
- He notes that the previous command of the unit is blamed for these issues and needs further investigation.
Continued fighting in Kursk region, Ukrainian offensive near Berlin village
🎦 22:20-23:38⏩
- Fighting continues in the Kursk region, in the same areas as the previous day: Ljubimovka/Leonidovo, Bolshoi Soldatskoi, and Martinovka directions.
- Russian media reports renewed Ukrainian activity in Sudia, indicating continued Ukrainian offensives, although played down by Russian sources.
- Russian channels also report Ukrainian forces attacking near the village of Berlin in the Kursk region again, using armoured vehicles and infantry, and accumulating forces near Raskoia Porichnaya.
- Jonathan will monitor developments in Kursk.
Blinken and Zelensky emphasise Kursk's importance for potential negotiations
🎦 23:38-25:07⏩
- The Kiev Independent reports that Ukraine's position in Kursk Oblast is considered important for potential negotiations, according to Blinken.
- Outgoing US Secretary of State Blinken's statement and Zelensky's previous comments highlight the strategic importance of Kursk for future negotiations.
- Jonathan notes that while Russian objectives in attacks like Prokrosk are clear (territory), Ukrainian objectives in Kursk are less obvious, but Zelensky's and Blinken's statements suggest a link to negotiation leverage.
- Agence France-Presse reports on "impossible talks with Russia".
North Korean soldiers evicting Russian pensioners in Kursk for shelter
🎦 25:07-25:39⏩
- InformNapalm, a Ukrainian hacking group, reports that North Korean soldiers in the Kursk region are evicting Russian pensioners from their homes in Makhanovka to take shelter from the cold and drones, in areas with heavy losses.
- InformNapalm has released footage purportedly showing this. Jonathan finds this plausible given the reported presence of North Korean soldiers and the harsh conditions.
Increased risk for Russian military cargoes at sea, Ursa Major sinking, North Korean and Iranian supplies
🎦 25:39-30:32⏩
- An article in the Maritime Executive highlights the rising risk for Russian military cargoes at sea.
- The sinking of the Russian military cargo auxiliary vessel Ursa Major on December 23rd, shortly after passing Gibraltar, may exemplify this increased threat.
- Russia's war effort is heavily reliant on armament shipments from North Korea and Iran due to sanctions and manpower shortages hindering its domestic military industry's ability to meet ammunition demands.
- North Korea: Ships ammunition (122mm and 152mm shells, missiles, armoured vehicles) from Raijin port to Dunai near Vladivostok, then by rail. Estimated 300,000 shells per month, possibly providing 50% of Russia's military ammunition expenditure. Shipments are increasing.
- Iran: Supplies shells and drones, shipping via Caspian ports (Bandar-e-Anzali, Amirabad to Kaspi, Volgodon). Images suggest Iran is also supplying air defence systems and Fatah-360 tactical ballistic missiles.
- These supplies are critical for Russia. Weaknesses in these sea routes could be exploited by Ukraine.
- The sinking of Ursa Major is of uncertain cause (engine malfunction, sabotage). Russia claims sabotage/terrorism but has not blamed a specific nation.
- Ursa Major was reportedly involved in operations supporting Russian African Corps mercenaries and provided drone assistance in Syria.
- Ukraine has demonstrated the capability to attack ships in the Caspian Sea (attacks on Tatarstan and Dagestan naval vessels in Kipis in November).
- Attacks on sea routes and potential evacuation of Russian equipment from Tartus would be high priority but challenging for Ukraine.
- Ukraine is known for ingenious military solutions and may receive covert technical assistance from other nations.
- Russia's suspected covert attacks on Baltic seabed cables might provoke retaliatory support for Ukrainian sabotage operations against Russian shipping. This escalates hybrid warfare.
Lex Fridman's interview with Zelensky criticised for simplistic questions, Zelensky's response to forgiveness question
🎦 30:32-37:22⏩
- Jonathan discusses Zelensky's three-hour interview with Lex Fridman, noting it was in a mix of languages and dubbed into English.
- Konstantin and others criticise Fridman's apparent lack of in-depth knowledge about Ukraine, suggesting he relies on media headlines and lacks understanding of the geopolitical context.
- Fridman, like Tucker Carlson and Elon Musk, is seen as potentially lacking understanding of the war's complexities.
- A clip of the interview is played where Fridman asks Zelensky about forgiving Russia.
- Zelensky responds emotionally and strongly rejects the idea of forgiveness, using the analogy of losing a child to illustrate the impossibility of forgiving Russia for its actions, including murder, invasion, rape, torture, stolen children and land.
- Zelensky argues that compromise is only considered when all other options are exhausted in defending one's home and freedom against invaders, and Ukraine is not at that point. He urges international support to help Ukraine expel the "thugs" (Russians) from their home, stating it's a moral imperative and in the international community's best interest.
Medvedev states Zelensky is despised by Russians and revenge should continue
🎦 37:22-39:26⏩
- Jonathan contrasts Zelensky's position with Dmitry Medvedev's statement that Zelensky is despised by all Russians and that personal revenge against him should not end, even after he leaves office.
- Medvedev's view is presented as propaganda-driven and vengeful, contrasting sharply with Zelensky's defence of his homeland.
- Jonathan emphasises the lack of "both-sides-ism" in this conflict: Russia is the aggressor, Ukraine is defending its sovereignty and democracy. There is no parity between Zelensky and Putin/Medvedev, or between Ukraine and Russia in terms of moral standing in this conflict.
Norwegian WWII resistance films "Number 24" and "The Twelfth" recommended; fighting for freedom and sovereignty
🎦 39:26-40:58⏩
- Jonathan recommends two Norwegian films about WWII resistance: "Number 24" and "The Twelfth" (both on Netflix), particularly "Number 24," which he says spoke to him about the situation in Ukraine.
- He relates the films to the idea that rules change in war when fighting for freedom and existence, making forgiveness and compromise difficult until absolutely necessary.
- He underscores that fighting for sovereignty and freedom is paramount, and compromise is only a last resort when all other options are exhausted.
Wrap up
🎦 40:58-41:01⏩
- Jonathan concludes the video and thanks viewers ("toolpips").
🤖❓ AI Debrief (post task) - anything the AI didn't understand
Everything understood
🤖💭 AI Plan (pre task) - the AI's step by step thought process
My thought process to summarise the video transcript followed these steps:
Deconstructed the Request: I first read through the entire request carefully, noting each task, rule, and guidance. I paid close attention to the XML structure and formatting requirements, especially the repeated warnings about using the correct closing tag for ``.
Planned the Execution: I decided to tackle the tasks in order, from Task 1 to Task 6. This linear approach seemed most logical as each task builds upon the previous one. I mentally prepared to read the transcript multiple times – once for topic identification, once for timestamps, and again for summarisation.
Task 1 (Title, Date, Part): This was straightforward. I extracted the title, date (and converted it to DD/MM/YYYY), and part from the provided YouTube title string as instructed.
Task 2 (Topic Titles): This required careful reading of the transcript.
First Pass - Segmentation: I read through the transcript, looking for natural breaks in the discussion. Jonathan often signals topic changes with phrases like "In the meantime, let's go to...", "So here we go...", "Okay, so...", "Right. Moving on to...", "Okay, moving on to other bits and pieces", "Let's now switch to Russia", "Anyway, that's enough of me banging on." These phrases acted as signposts for topic separation.
Specific Titles: For each segment, I aimed to create a concise, specific, and quantified title. I focused on what was being discussed, where, who was involved, and any key numbers or details mentioned. I avoided vague titles like "Russian losses" and opted for more specific ones like "Russian daily losses reported by Ukrainian General Staff: 1,550 personnel, 14 tanks, 45 AFVs, 62 artillery systems, 178 drones, 116 vehicles and fuel tanks". I made sure to include numbers and categories whenever possible.
"Hello Team" and "Wrap up": I ensured the first topic was titled "Hello Team" and the last "Wrap up" as mandated.
Ukrainian Spellings: I kept in mind the Ukrainian spellings (Kyiv, Kursk region, Prokrosk).
Iterative Refinement: After drafting initial topic titles, I reviewed them to ensure they were granular enough and didn't combine unrelated subjects. For example, if Jonathan discussed tank losses and then artillery losses separately, I made sure to create separate topic titles.
Task 3 (Topic Timestamps): This was mechanical but required accuracy.
Matching Topics: I went back through the transcript, topic by topic, using the boundaries I identified in Task 2.
Timestamp Extraction: I carefully noted the timestamps at the beginning and end of each topic segment directly from the transcript.
Format and Tags: I formatted the timestamps as MM:SS-MM:SS and enclosed them in `` tags with the correct `id` attribute, ensuring it matched the corresponding ``.
Coverage Check: After assigning timestamps to all topics, I quickly scanned through the timestamps to make sure they covered the entire video duration without significant gaps, confirming I hadn't missed any sections or created overlaps unnecessarily.
Task 4 (Topic Summaries): This was the most time-consuming and subjective task.
Deep Dive into Each Topic: For each topic, I reread the corresponding transcript section more thoroughly.
Key Information Extraction: I identified the core information, including:
Facts and Figures: Numbers, equipment types, locations, dates.
Sources: Andrew Perpetua, Ukrainian General Staff, ISW, Russian Telegram channels, news agencies (Guardian, Kiev Independent, Agence France Press), InformNapalm, Maritime Executive, Lex Fridman, Dmitry Medvedev, etc. I made sure to credit these sources in the summaries.
Jonathan's Analysis & Opinions: I paid attention to Jonathan's interpretations of the data, his insights into Russian strategy, equipment shortages, disinformation, and his philosophical reflections on forgiveness and compromise. I made sure to include these perspectives in the summaries.
Context: I ensured each summary provided enough context to be understandable. For example, when summarising equipment losses, I included the comparison to daily averages and rolling averages mentioned by Jonathan.
Summarisation and Markdown: I summarised the key points using bullet points to improve readability. I used bold and italics sparingly for emphasis, mainly for source names or key terms. I focused on conveying Jonathan's message clearly and concisely in British English, maintaining his tone where appropriate (e.g., mentioning cups of tea or his passionate stance).
Ukrainian Spellings & British English: I consistently used Ukrainian spellings (Kyiv, Odesa, Kursk region, Prokrosk) and wrote in British English.
Task 5 (Quote): I reread the transcript, specifically looking for impactful or insightful quotes. Zelensky's emotional response to the question about forgiveness stood out as particularly poignant and relevant to the video's themes. I selected a concise portion of this quote that made sense out of context. I corrected minor punctuation issues in the transcript to ensure the quote was grammatically sound and clear.
Task 6 (Queries): I reviewed all tasks and the transcript itself to identify anything unclear. In this case, everything was relatively clear, so I noted "Everything understood" as instructed.
XML Assembly and Final Check: Finally, I assembled all the generated XML tags in the specified structure. I double-checked:
Correct XML Tags: Ensured all tags were correctly named and closed (especially `` and ``).
ID Matching: Verified that the `id` attributes in ``, ``, and `` tags matched correctly for each topic.
Formatting: Checked the date format, timestamp format, and overall XML structure against the instructions.
Completeness: Scanned through the entire XML output one last time to catch any missed tags, typos, or formatting errors before submitting.
This systematic, step-by-step approach, combined with careful attention to detail and the specific instructions, allowed me to generate the XML summary accurately and comprehensively. The multiple readings of the transcript, focusing on different aspects each time, were key to ensuring all tasks were completed effectively. The explicit check for the `` closing tag was a crucial final step due to the repeated emphasis in the prompt.
