Ukraine Conflict: Full Frontline Update

"I mean, just that one bit of news there means that there's a bit of a sea change happening. Like what has been unable, I've just got a shiver down my spine. That's how freaking important this is."

Hello Team

🎦 00:00-00:21⏩

Jonathan welcomes viewers to the daily Front Line Update, reminding viewers where to find the key for the maps he will be using.

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📍 FRONT-LINE UPDATE -🗺️ MAP LEGEND

Russian Airfield in Rostov hit by Ukrainian Drones

🎦 00:22-01:27⏩

Jonathan reports a Ukrainian drone strike on Morozovsk military airfield in Rostov. Although some distance from the Ukrainian border, he reasons that the drones would need a range of at least 300-400km. There are conflicting reports about damage, with some sources claiming 2 Su-34s destroyed and 10 damaged. Jonathan plans to discuss this in more detail tomorrow.

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Ukrainian Commander: Military Operations Scaled Back due to Foreign Aid Shortages

🎦 01:27-03:25⏩

Jonathan cites Ukrainian Commander General Oleksandr Tarnavskiy who has stated that shell shortages have forced the Ukrainian military to scale back operations. This is evident in the lack of significant Ukrainian defense against Russian offensives. Jonathan expresses his frustration that despite evidence, he is still encountering arguments from those who are defeatist about the situation and accepting of the slow response of the American political system. He is irritated that some are accepting of attaching Ukrainian aid to Southern Border Aid in the US, despite the fact that no other aid is treated in this way. He finds it frustrating that there appears to be a growing acceptance of Russian propaganda and narratives in US political discourse, and that this is impacting the level of support provided to Ukraine. Jonathan is similarly concerned about Hungary's attempts to stall a 50bn Euro aid package and the role of Hungary as a mouthpiece for the Kremlin. He believes there is a similar problem within US politics, with certain politicians echoing Kremlin narratives, and expresses his frustration at the impact this is having on the situation in Ukraine and the world in general. He believes that Ukraine is on the backfoot as a result of a lack of essential equipment.

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Svatove-Kreminna Axis

🎦 03:27-05:42⏩

Citing the ISW, Jonathan reports heavy fighting along the entire front line, but particularly around the Svatove-Kreminna axis: Serebryansky Forest, Torske, Makiivka and particularly Svatove-Kreminna axis: Serebryansky Forest, Torske, Makiivka and particularly Sievierodonetsk. He reports a Russian offensive in Sievierodonetsk, supported by footage of destroyed Russian equipment. Geolocated footage appears to show Ukrainian advances North of Sievierodonetsk. Jonathan plays and analyses the footage, which shows a Ukrainian tank attempting to destroy a house sheltering a Russian soldier. Whilst this could indicate a Ukrainian advance, he is cautious about drawing firm conclusions.

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Bakhmut Front Line Update

🎦 05:42-11:26⏩

Jonathan now moves South to the Bakhmut front line, reporting activity around Bilohorivka, Spirne, Serebryansky Forest and the outskirts of Kreminna. He notes that whilst Syriac Maps shows Ukrainian advances around Sakko I Vanzetti, this has not been confirmed by other mappers. He reports Russian advances around the outskirts of Kraminna according to Andrew Perpetua. Geolocated footage published on 17 December appears to confirm Russian advances North West of Kraminna, which is supported by footage but not confirmed by geolocation. Jonathan analyses geolocated footage of a Ukrainian 28th Mechanised Brigade drone strike against Russian manpower in Kurdyumivka, which again supports the reports of Russian advances in this area. Although Syriac Maps appears to have been correct, Jonathan cautions that this footage does not confirm this. Jonathan analyses footage of a further drone strike in Kurdyumivka, which appears to confirm Russian control over the canal and tunnels in the area. Again, he adds the caveat that Ukrainian strikes in the area do not confirm Russian control, but believes it is likely given the amount of evidence. Jonathan reports a rare Ukrainian advance, with Andrew Perpetua showing a possible Ukrainian push in the Stepova area South of the Coke plant. However, the Russians appear to have gained ground in the Pidhorodne industrial zone, pushing Ukrainian forces back to the Southern outskirts of the town. Syriac Maps also show Russian control over a slag heap, although this is disputed by Deep State Maps and Andrew Perpetua. Further Russian advances are reported North West of Opytne, supported by Deep State Maps and Syriac Maps. This is also the case around Vodiane, towards Siversk and Tonenka. All mappers appear to be in agreement about Russian advances around Pervomaiske. Jonathan analyses geolocated footage of a Russian advance near Stepova, and concludes that the footage actually shows Ukrainian resistance, using Bradleys, FPVS and artillery, and that therefore the footage does not support the claims of Russian advance. Jonathan notes a number of inconsistencies with geolocation in the Telegram footage, and after some difficulty analysing live, concludes that the Ukrainians are putting up a fight in Stepova, using Bradleys, FPVS. Jonathan notes that this is an example of how footage can pre-date mapping.

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Avdiivka-Donetsk City Front Line Update

🎦 11:26-18:45⏩

Moving South to the Avdiivka-Donetsk City front line, Jonathan reports that the Ukrainian General Staff claim to have repelled at least 17 Russian Assaults in Novobakhmutivka (North of Bakhmut), Stepova and Avdiivka. A further 13 attacks were repelled around Pervomaiske and Nevelske. Whilst Deep State Maps shows marginal Russian gains in the area between Pisky and Nevelske, Global War Monitor reports that the Ukrainians are in control of positions previously held by Russian forces. Jonathan clarifies that this is likely to be a map clarification by Global War Monitor rather than an indication of a Ukrainian counter offensive. He reports a statement from the Spokesperson for the Ukrainian Brigade operating near Avdiivka, who claims that a Russian advance on the town involving 10 armoured vehicles was repelled, with half of the vehicles destroyed. Jonathan remarks that this is further evidence of the high number of Russian vehicles destroyed by Ukrainian forces in the area. Jonathan notes a geolocation from 17th December, which supports the view that Ukrainian forces have made advances East of Nevelske. He analyses footage from the 110th Brigade showing Ukrainian forces coming under Russian shelling East of Nevelske, showing that this is likely to be a map clarification by Global War Monitor, rather than a Ukrainian counter offensive. Jonathan notes that the Ukrainian forces are very close to the Russian defensive line in this area. Jonathan reports that according to Russian sources, Mariinka has fallen to Russian forces, who are now clearing the outskirts of the settlement. Although the ISW is yet to confirm this, Jonathan believes it is highly likely. Russian Millbloggers also claim to have reached the outskirts of Novomykhailivka and Pobieda. Jonathan is concerned by this development and believes that it is important for Ukrainian forces to hold this line, to prevent the Russians advancing on strategically important towns such as Kurakhove (which has logistical value) and to force the Russians to expend resources and manpower. He would prefer to see fighting in Mariinka and Novomykhailivka, than in Kostyantynivka, which would threaten the road to Vuhledar. Jonathan analyses further geolocated footage from 17th December of fighting West of Vodyane (rather than Vuhledar). This shows a Russian attack on the 65th Mechanised Brigade, which resulted in a Russian tank being abandoned after detonating a mine. Jonathan notes that this is further back than the current front line, and could therefore be an indication of Ukrainian advances.

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Southern Front Line Update

🎦 18:45-23:23⏩

Jonathan notes that although there are no changes to mapping in Velyka Novosilka, there is ongoing activity. He goes on to report a Ukrainian advance West of Vuhledar, which he has been unable to confirm with geolocated footage. Russian Millbloggers also report that Russian forces have recaptured lost positions around Vuhledar, and have advanced up to 1km from Robotyne and Novopropivka. Jonathan believes this is likely to be what the ISW is referring to when it reports Russian advances in this area. Moving on to the Dnipro River area, Jonathan reports that Russian sources are claiming a lack of vehicles for evacuating wounded, and insufficient Electronic Warfare systems to protect evacuating troops from Ukrainian drones. There have been similar complaints from Russian troops in Krynky about insufficient counter-battery, electronic warfare and communications capability. Although Syriac Maps suggests that Russian forces are putting Ukrainian troops under pressure, this has not been confirmed by other sources. For example, a Syriac Map indicating Russian advances around Krynky has not been confirmed elsewhere. Jonathan acknowledges that whilst the situation is difficult for Ukrainian forces, he believes they can hold the line as long as casualties are not too heavy, and they receive sufficient artillery and mortar ammunition.

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Jonathan's Hope for a Fruitful Winter

🎦 23:23-27:20⏩

Jonathan believes that Ukrainian forces should use the winter months to target Russian logistics, equipment depots and bridges using long range missiles and drones. He is encouraged by reports of cheap and effective Ukrainian made drones being used in increasing numbers, such as those used in the attack on the airfield in Rostov. He believes that if Ukraine is able to launch similar attacks on a regular basis throughout the winter, this could have a significant impact on Russia's ability to wage war. He views the use of indigenously produced drones as a sign of self-sufficiency, and a way of overcoming restrictions placed on equipment provided by other countries which prevents them from being used within Russia.

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Wrap Up

🎦 27:20-28:00⏩

Jonathan thanks viewers, asking them to like, subscribe and share, and reminding those who have experienced problems with notifications to "select all" when subscribing.

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