Ukraine War Update NEWS: Military Aid News - Starmer in Kyiv; Kyiv Attacked
Table of Contents 📖
"They are at war with the entirety of Europe. They are happy to put, and they know Keir Starmer is here, missiles into the capital while he is here because they are at war with Britain just as much as Ukraine."
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Hello Team
🎦 00:00-00:14⏩
- Jonathan welcomes the team to another ATP Geopolitics video.
- This is part three of the Ukraine War News Update for the 16th of January 2025.
- The focus of this part is military aid, starting with Keir Starmer's visit to Kyiv.
Keir Starmer's visit to Kyiv timed before Trump inauguration
🎦 00:14-00:35⏩
- Jonathan highlights the timing of Keir Starmer's visit to Kyiv, noting it is just before the inauguration and Trump taking control in the US.
- Analysts believe this timing is not coincidental.
UK sends signal of support to Ukraine and US with Starmer's Kyiv visit
🎦 00:35-01:07⏩
- Starmer's visit sends a signal of the UK's continued support for Ukraine, regardless of US policy shifts under a new Trump administration.
- The UK is sending a message to Ukraine, the US, and the world about its commitment.
- The UK has signed a 100-year agreement with Ukraine, indicating long-term commitment.
UK's 100-year deal agreement with Ukraine and message to Trump
🎦 01:07-01:28⏩
- The 100-year deal agreement signals that the UK will not abandon Ukraine, irrespective of US actions.
- It is also a message to Trump, suggesting the UK is committed to supporting Ukraine, influencing the US's stance.
- There are emerging positive signs from the US, such as considering further sanctions against Russia.
US planning sanctions against Russia
🎦 01:28-01:46⏩
- Jonathan expresses concern that Trump might lift sanctions against Russia, as he previously suggested.
- He criticises Trump's past statements on Ukraine, suggesting a lack of knowledge about the war.
- However, there are indications that the US might pursue further sanctions, which Jonathan views as a positive development.
Mike Turner dropped from Intelligence Committee
🎦 01:46-02:15⏩
- Jonathan notes some negative news, such as Mike Turner, the Republican chair of the Intelligence Committee, being dropped, reportedly due to MAGA pressure.
- This is considered bad news, but there is also optimism about potential continued US sanctions.
US ramps up sanctions against Russia
🎦 02:15-02:42⏩
- Despite the removal of Mike Turner, there is good news that the US administration is ramping up sanctions against Russia.
- Jonathan believes these sanctions will be impactful and that the Trump administration likely recognises their leverage.
Keir Starmer's seventh meeting with Zelensky in six months
🎦 02:42-03:16⏩
- Jonathan corrects the mispronunciation of "Keir Starmer".
- This visit marks Starmer's seventh meeting with Zelensky in the last six months, demonstrating consistent UK-Ukraine engagement.
- He defends Starmer against criticism for taking time to visit Kyiv, highlighting the frequency of their meetings.
UK is sending good signals of support to Ukraine
🎦 03:16-03:29⏩
- Jonathan expresses a pro-UK stance, believing the signals from the UK are very positive.
- He mentions that there was almost breaking news, but he was occupied with other tasks.
Russia attacks Kyiv with drones during Starmer's visit - possible message to UK
🎦 03:29-04:16⏩
- Russia launched a drone attack on Kyiv while Keir Starmer was visiting, accompanied by gunfire and air defence activity.
- Jonathan interprets this as a deliberate act by Russia, signalling they are at war with the UK.
- He suggests Russia targeted Kyiv knowing the UK Prime Minister was there, which is highly controversial.
- Jonathan calls for the international community and the UK to acknowledge this as a form of waging war, rather than dismissing it.
UK-Ukraine sign agreement deepening defence and economic cooperation
🎦 04:16-04:29⏩
- Keir Starmer visited Kyiv for the first time as Prime Minister.
- Ukraine and the UK are set to sign an agreement to deepen cooperation in defence and economy.
- Starmer is expected to announce £40 million for Ukraine's economic recovery.
Russia's drone attack in Kyiv during Starmer's visit highlights daily threat to Ukrainians
🎦 04:29-05:42⏩
- Russia launched a drone attack on central Kyiv during Starmer's visit, showing what Ukrainians experience daily.
- Starmer stated that the drone strike is a reminder of the daily threat Ukrainians face and that the war is due to Russian aggression.
- He emphasises the need for a lasting peace for Ukraine.
Zelensky and Starmer emphasise continued support for Ukraine after drone attack
🎦 05:42-06:09⏩
- Zelensky responded to the drone attack by stating Ukraine will "send a greeting in return".
- Starmer reiterated the necessity for ongoing support for Ukraine.
- The drone attack was a significant topic of discussion during the visit.
Kyiv explosions during Starmer visit show Russia at war with Europe
🎦 06:09-07:07⏩
- A news report highlights massive explosions in Kyiv while the British Prime Minister was nearby.
- It is argued that this proves Russia is not just at war with Ukraine, but with Europe as a whole.
- Russia knowingly targeted Kyiv with missiles while Starmer was there, indicating war against Britain.
- Jonathan strongly agrees with the commentator's sentiment that anyone complaining about supporting Ukraine needs to "shut the f* up", given Ukraine is fighting "for us" for less than 1% of GDP.
- He emphasizes the direct nature of the attack on the standing British Prime Minister.
UK-Ukraine 100-year partnership agreement and £2.2 billion military aid
🎦 07:07-08:27⏩
- News reports confirm gunfire in Kyiv during Starmer's meeting with Zelensky.
- Ukraine and UK signed a landmark 100-year partnership agreement to strengthen security ties.
- Starmer's speech confirms funding underwritten by frozen Russian asset profits.
UK military aid package includes artillery, air defence and training - "nothing off the table" comment
🎦 08:27-09:21⏩
- The UK is announcing £2.2 billion in funding.
- Starmer's statement that "nothing is off the table" regarding training Ukrainian defenders is highlighted as interesting and potentially cryptic, possibly hinting at air defence training or deployment of UK trainers to Ukraine.
- The military support includes artillery, mobile air defence.
UK to supply 150 artillery pieces and Grave Hawk air defence system
🎦 09:21-10:38⏩
- The UK is pledging £1.2 billion in military support, including artillery pieces (possibly whole pieces rather than just barrels), mobile air defence, and expanded training.
- 150 UK-made artillery pieces are expected to arrive in weeks.
- The aid package includes a new air defence system co-financed with Denmark.
- Continued training for Ukrainian troops, building upon the 50,000 already trained.
- The "Grave Hawk" air defence missile system, specifically created by the UK for Ukraine, is mentioned, with 15 more to be delivered this year, according to Defence Express. It is described as a "Frankenstein" system using a "super cat" chassis.
Possibility of UK troops deploying to Ukraine for training
🎦 10:38-12:49⏩
- Security guarantees are being recognised in the UK-Ukraine agreement.
- Despite reluctance from some NATO nations (US, Germany, Hungary, Slovakia) for Ukraine to join NATO, the UK is showing strong support.
- Starmer hinted at the possibility of deploying UK forces to Ukraine to train troops, clarifying the "nothing off the table" comment.
- This suggests UK trainers might be sent to Ukraine.
Ukraine and Norway cooperate on air defence - integrating Ukrainian systems with NASAMS
🎦 12:49-13:37⏩
- Ukraine is extending cooperation with Norwegian NASAMS systems suppliers.
- Discussions are underway to integrate Ukrainian-made air defence systems into NASAMS to enhance effectiveness, according to Defence Minister Rustam Umarov.
- Ukraine and Kongsberg plan to integrate domestic air defence systems into the NASAMS system, although the specifics are unclear.
- This indicates Ukraine's increasing focus on domestic production and collaboration with foreign industries.
Italian Defence Minister visits Kyiv to discuss using frozen Russian assets for Ukraine aid
🎦 13:37-13:47⏩
- Italian Defence Minister Corsetto also visited Kyiv.
- This follows Italy-Ukraine talks about using frozen Russian assets to support Ukraine's air defence and ammunition supplies.
Zelensky states Ukraine military totals 880,000 soldiers, compared to 600,000 Russian troops in Ukraine - force comparison issues
🎦 13:47-14:48⏩
- Zelensky stated that Ukraine's military totals 880,000 soldiers, facing 600,000 Russian troops.
- Jonathan cautions against directly comparing these figures, as the Ukrainian number likely includes the entire Ministry of Defence bureaucracy, while the Russian figure is probably more focused on combat and support forces within Ukraine.
- He clarifies that the 600,000 Russian troops are concentrated in specific areas, while the 880,000 Ukrainian soldiers are tasked with defending the entire country, including borders.
- A more accurate comparison for the 880,000 Ukrainian figure would be the entire Russian Ministry of Defence, not just forces in Ukraine.
Article analysis: Ukraine's domestic missile production delays and challenges
🎦 14:48-15:33⏩
- An article from Kyiv Independent discusses Ukraine's efforts to expand its arsenal of long-range strike missiles, but highlights delays in domestic production of traditional ballistic and cruise missiles.
- The article questions whether Ukraine's war-battered defence industry can build a new generation of long-distance strike missiles.
- Ukraine's success in drone production is seen as a workaround to limitations in defence industry autonomy.
Historical factors and Russian attacks hinder Ukraine's missile production
🎦 15:33-16:26⏩
- Russia and the West, along with local corruption, weakened Ukraine's weapons factories after the fall of the USSR.
- Remaining factories are under constant Russian bombardment.
- Analysts consider Zelensky's claims about domestic missile production as potentially overstated.
- Missile expert Fabian Hoffman suggests that achieving even half of Zelensky's promised missile and drone production targets for 2024 would be challenging.
- There is skepticism about sorting out "ballistics from bluster" regarding Ukraine's missile program.
Neptune missile overview and usage - anti-ship and land attack roles
🎦 16:26-17:24⏩
- The article assesses Ukraine's homegrown missiles, starting with the Neptune.
- Neptune is a nautical cruise missile, originally designed for anti-ship roles but converted for land-based launches.
- Hoffman considers it the most mature of Ukraine's large missile projects.
- Ukrainian officials claim Neptune missiles sank the Russian cruiser Moskva in April 2022 and struck an S-400 air defence factory in August 2023.
Limited evidence and slow production of Neptune missiles
🎦 17:24-18:31⏩
- Evidence of Neptune missile usage is largely based on government statements and anonymous sources.
- Despite Zelensky announcing Neptune's acceptance into weaponry in 2020, concrete evidence is limited.
- Discussions existed about setting up Neptune production, initially producing them "artisanally" at a low rate.
- Streamlining production hasn't happened, reflected in the limited usage rate since 2023.
Thunder 2/HRIM 2 ballistic missile overview and testing - skepticism remains
🎦 18:31-20:15⏩
- The Thunder 2 (HRIM-2) is a ballistic missile, distinct from the Neptune cruise missile.
- It's a ballistic rocket program based on solid fuel and inertial guidance, theoretically reaching hypersonic speeds.
- Program dates back to 2006 under the name SAPSAN, which is now understood to be the internal name for HRIM-2/Thunder-2.
- Ukrainian officials claimed HRIM-2 passed testing by late 2024, with Zelensky announcing positive results in August.
- However, missile specialist Michael Dutzman expresses doubt about HRIM-2, noting test launch claims but remaining skeptical.
Caution and Viltcher missile projects shelved - lack of functional system
🎦 20:15-21:00⏩
- The Caution cruise missile and Viltcher multiple launch rocket system projects, heavily speculated about in the 2010s, are discussed.
- The Caution project has been shelved since Zelensky's election.
- The Vilcha, an updated Soviet rocket complex, promised higher precision but has shown no evidence of functional use since the full-scale invasion.
Trembita missile drone - limited capabilities and misclassification
🎦 21:00-21:54⏩
- Components for the Vilcha are reportedly difficult to obtain quickly.
- The volunteer-based Trembita is described as a cruise missile in some reports, but it lacks the speed, range, and payload to be considered a true cruise missile, with limited speed, range and payload.
- James Acuna from CIA, describes Trembita more like a "missile drone" or "drone missile", implying it's more akin to a fast-flying rock than a sophisticated missile.
Challenges for Ukraine to produce missiles - complex technology and Russian attacks
🎦 21:54-23:22⏩
- Producing classic cruise or ballistic missiles is much more complex than making missile drones like Trembita, which use more commercial off-the-shelf components and can be made in smaller facilities.
- Advanced missiles require bigger, permanent facilities and precise engineering.
- Acuna states Ukraine lacks the military-industrial complex for missile production. They can create "Frankenstein missiles" but not match advanced Russian missiles like Kh-31.
- Dutzman believes the main problem isn't technology but Russian air attacks targeting missile factories, making production immensely harder.
Russian strikes target Ukrainian missile production facilities and component stockpiles
🎦 23:22-24:57⏩
- Russian airstrikes have consistently targeted Ukrainian military-industrial complex factories, including those in Lviv, Khmelnytsky, and Zaporizhia, hindering missile production.
- This forces Ukraine to rely on smaller, "artisanal" production for weapons like the Trembita.
- Russia destroyed a large stockpile of solid rocket fuel in Pavlohrad early in the war.
- Strikes on Kyiv's Luch construction bureau (Neptune, Vilcha) and Zaporizhia's Motosikh factory (jet engines for Neptune) further explain production delays.
Secrecy around Ukraine's missile program and limited evidence of mass usage
🎦 24:57-25:39⏩
- Secrecy surrounds Ukraine's missile program due to security threats.
- The Strategic Industries Ministry declined to comment on missile production, calling it sensitive.
- Limited observable use of Ukrainian-produced missiles raises doubts about actual production volume.
- Mass use of these missiles within Russia would likely be evident on social media.
- Despite secrecy, Ukraine is eager to publicize successes in missile programs, possibly for PR and bragging rights.
Jonathan's assessment: Ukraine needs to ramp up missile production, relying on drones and limited Western missile aid
🎦 25:39-26:30⏩
- Jonathan is still waiting to see Ukraine's domestically produced missiles used on a wider scale.
- Drones are being used extensively, especially in attacks into Russia, possibly including Trembita and Neptune missiles.
- Ukraine needs to significantly increase missile production.
- Allied missile assistance is limited to Storm Shadows, Scalp EGs and ATACMS, but Ukraine needs "way, way more".
Ukraine's asymmetric military doctrine - technological superiority and drones to offset Russian troop numbers
🎦 26:30-28:01⏩
- Ukraine's asymmetric military doctrine focuses on technological superiority and innovative combat to counter Russia's numerical troop advantage, according to ICDS.
- Ukraine is struggling with troop numbers and aims to replace soldiers with drones, as discussed with Operator Starsky and Jonathan Fink in a recent live stream.
- This involves using unmanned ground vehicles (UGVs) with machine guns or mines, reducing the need for infantry and sappers in dangerous positions.
- The goal is to replace humans with machines for safety, acknowledging machines can be built faster than trained soldiers (at least currently).
Forbes article on Baba Yaga drones - Ukraine's unseen night bombers
🎦 28:01-28:39⏩
- A Forbes article by David Hambling discusses Ukraine's "Baba Yaga" drones, heavy hexacopters/octacopters used as night bombers.
- Jonathan notes that David Hambling consulted Andrew Perpetua for information.
- "Baba Yaga" is a Russian-coined generic term for large drones with multiple rotors carrying 20-40 pound bomb loads and striking up to 12 miles (approximately 19 kilometers) away.
Baba Yaga drone capabilities, munitions and night operations
🎦 28:39-29:54⏩
- Baba Yaga drones can travel longer ranges with fewer bombs.
- Typical munitions include 22-pound TM62 anti-tank mines adapted for aerial bombing, and 82mm or 120mm mortar bombs.
- Some are reportedly armed with laser-guided bombs for precision strikes, possibly against air defence systems, but these are rarer.
- They can also deliver supplies to frontline troops.
- These drones are noisy and easily spotted in daylight, so they operate almost exclusively at night and at low altitudes to avoid air defence.
- They are equipped with thermal imagers for target acquisition at night.
Scale of Baba Yaga drone fleet - 2000 acquired by Ukraine
🎦 29:54-30:43⏩
- Ukraine's Ministry of Defence acquired over 2,000 heavy bomber drones through official channels in the past year.
- More were supplied by volunteers and fundraisers, but those numbers are unknown.
- Each drone costs around $20,000, making the entire fleet cost about half the price of a single F-16 fighter jet.
- Drone teams operate near the frontline at night, conducting multiple bombing or mine-laying missions.
- Russians try to locate drone teams via radio emissions or by following drones back with quadcopters. Teams are often targeted by artillery and airstrikes, requiring frequent position changes.
Andrew Perpetua's analysis: Baba Yaga drone kills are undercounted in Russian loss assessments🎦 30:43-32:37⏩
- Andrew Perpetua believes that the impact of night bomber drones is seriously underestimated in Russian loss assessments.
- Russian government attempts to geolocate every combat video. Loss assessments rely on sources like Oryx and Warspotting, which require visually confirmed and deduplicated imagery.
- Perpetua notes that thermal imagery from drone bomber videos makes vehicle identification difficult, leading to undercounting of kills as only visually confirmed losses are recorded.
- This explains why Oryx and Warspotting might be showing fewer visually confirmed vehicle losses, while actual losses are higher due to unconfirmed Baba Yaga drone strikes.
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Baba Yaga drones cause significant unconfirmed Russian equipment losses and surpassed artillery in T-90M kills
🎦 32:37-33:46⏩
- Despite undercounting, Baba Yaga drones have still scored more confirmed kills of Russian T-90M tanks than artillery or guided missiles in the last quarter.
- Ukraine has shifted to using heavy bomber drones for vehicle destruction, causing high daily losses for Russia, according to Perpetua's analysis of attack videos.
- Bomber kills rose rapidly in 2024, as shown in a graph (for the first 18 days of December).
- Jonathan emphasizes the significant increase in bomber kills based on Perpetua's data.
Ukraine to start producing microchips - $1 billion investment for national security
🎦 33:46-35:29⏩
- Shifting focus to Ukraine's electronic industrial complex, Jonathan discusses Ukraine starting microchip production.
- He notes the US moving away from reliance on Taiwan due to potential invasion risks, exemplified by Biden's Chips and Science Act, demonstrating strategic government planning beyond free market forces for national security.
- He argues strategic planning is crucial for nations, contrasting it with libertarian "small government" approaches that could leave nations defenceless.
Ukraine's microchip production plans - nanometer sizes and defence sector needs
🎦 35:29-36:35⏩
- Ukraine plans to start microchip production, requiring about $1 billion investment, according to the Ministry of Digital Information.
- They aim to produce microchips at 180, 130, and 110 nanometer sizes.
- These microchips are intended to fully meet the needs of Ukraine's defence, agricultural, and automotive sectors.
- Jonathan believes this makes sense to address component shortages for missile production and other sectors.
- Domestic microchip production will alleviate bottlenecks affecting Ukraine's weapon production capabilities.
Wrap up
🎦 36:35-36:51⏩
- Jonathan concludes, noting the extensive coverage of the UK due to Keir Starmer's important visit to Kyiv.
- He hopes the information was useful and interesting.
- He signs off, promising to speak to viewers soon.