Ukraine War Update NEWS: Pt 1 - Overnight & Other News
Table of Contents 📖
"Every party with agency has responsibility for the actions they take with that agency."
Hello Team
🎦 00:00-01:27⏩
Jonathan welcomes viewers to another ATP Geopolitics video - a Ukraine War News Update. He shares that he was recently contacted by Premier Christian Radio to debate contradictions in the Bible but had to decline due to his focus on covering the war in Ukraine.
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🪦 DISCLAIMER FOR GENERAL STAFF LOSSES DATA
- These are real people with real lives and real families who love them. Don’t let the numbers sap your humanity.
- These numbers probably aren’t accurate but they’re the best we have and we don’t need them to be accurate to be indicative of patterns of activity.
- All losses are estimates. Losses cannot be counted with accuracy because of the conditions on the ground.
- Both sides would see it to be of their advantage to minimize their own losses maximize the other side’s losses.
- Neither side releases their losses but we have enough transparency from the Ukrainian side to have confidence in they are indicative.
- Personnel losses are hard to count. If a soldier gets injured, heals up, and returns to the front line only to get injured again, is that one loss or two? Also, how to deal with losses from PMC’s or soldiers fighting with RF from occupied territories?
- Equipment losses are hard to count. If an AA complex involves several parts and one part gets disabled, is that a loss, or a fraction of a loss? If a tank gets disabled, repaired, back into the fight, then disabled again, is that one lost tank or two?
- All recorded losses are vulnerable to multiple reporting. We have already seen numerous cases of multiple drones in the air reporting the same loss from different angles as multiple engagements.
- Losses are not always reported on the same day they occurred. It is frequent that drone losses are reported at least 24 hours after other terrestrial equipment losses. Certain losses may not be reported for days or weeks for military intelligence reasons.
Ukrainian General Staff Report: Analysis of Russian Losses
🎦 01:27-03:33⏩
Jonathan analyses the latest Ukrainian General Staff figures for Russian losses, noting that while personnel losses are high, tank losses remain low, suggesting a potential shortage or strategic shift in their utilisation. He observes a significant loss of Russian armoured personnel carriers, indicating their continued importance on the front lines. Jonathan highlights the work of Andrew Perpetua in providing detailed breakdowns of these statistics and observes that while Russia's losses are higher, the ratio is still below the estimated 3:1 advantage needed for Ukraine to prevail.
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Analysis of Ukrainian Losses
🎦 03:33-06:12⏩
Jonathan reviews the Ukrainian equipment losses, including the loss of a third P18 radar system this week. He observes the loss of a Ukrainian-made Bohdana howitzer and the presence of Western-supplied vehicles, such as Spartans and M113s, in the reported losses. Jonathan points out the impact of Russian Kh-35 missile strikes on Ukrainian supply lines, highlighting the vulnerability of logistic networks in the conflict.
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Analysis of Russian Losses: High-Value Losses and Trends
🎦 06:12-08:17⏩
Jonathan analyses Russian equipment losses, noting the destruction of two Panzer S1 tanks, representing a significant financial setback. He highlights the Ukrainian capture of a Russian Zemledeliye mine-clearing vehicle as a valuable asset and points to the continued reliance on older equipment and improvised vehicles by Russian forces, indicating potential supply chain issues.
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Kharkiv Counteroffensive Update: Russian Struggles and Desertions
🎦 08:17-11:18⏩
Jonathan provides an update on the situation in Kharkiv Oblast, stating that the recent Russian offensive has stalled and is considered a failure. He cites reports of Russian troops being pulled from the Donetsk front to support the operation, indicating a lack of available reserves. Jonathan also highlights increasing reports of Russian desertions and the deployment of Chechen Akhmat special forces as "blocking units" to prevent unauthorized retreats. He presents multiple anecdotal accounts and visual evidence, albeit unverified, suggesting heavy Russian losses and low morale in the region. Jonathan emphasizes the effectiveness of Ukrainian artillery and drones, particularly given the reported increase in Ukrainian drone production.
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Russian Recruitment Challenges and the Use of Foreign Fighters
🎦 11:18-13:58⏩
Jonathan discusses Russian recruitment challenges, citing reports of over 3,000 Nepalese citizens joining the Russian army. He suggests that while Russia may be experiencing some grinding successes on the eastern front, their reliance on foreign recruits and the redeployment of troops from other areas indicate a limited capacity for further advances.
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Sevastopol Beach Incident Analysis: Moral Responsibility and Evidence
🎦 13:58-25:14⏩
Jonathan revisits the recent incident in Sevastopol, Crimea, where debris from a missile strike landed on a beach. He emphasizes the complexity of assigning blame, highlighting a viewer's email that proposes viewing the situation through a lens of responsibility. Jonathan discusses the responsibility of Ukrainian forces in minimizing civilian casualties while targeting legitimate military objectives, the responsibility of occupying authorities to protect civilians in a war zone, and the choices made by civilians who chose to holiday near a military target. He then presents evidence suggesting the debris may have originated from a Russian TOR surface-to-air missile system, challenging the initial Russian narrative that blamed American-supplied missiles.
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Overnight News Update: Russian Strikes on Odessa and Mykolaiv
🎦 25:14-26:47⏩
Jonathan provides an update on overnight events, reporting on a relatively quiet night for both sides. He mentions a confirmed Russian missile strike on an administrative building in Odessa and a strike on Mykolaiv, where debris caused a grass fire but no reported injuries. Jonathan notes the downing of two Ukrainian drones in Russia’s Smolensk region, with no significant damage reported.
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Donetsk Front Update: Russian Offensive Operations and Ukrainian Resistance
🎦 26:47-28:21⏩
Jonathan discusses the ongoing situation on the Donetsk front, reporting increased Russian focus on the town of Turetsk, which has been subjected to repeated missile strikes. He shows footage of the damage inflicted by these attacks but provides no further details on the strategic situation.
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Russian Casualties and Manpower Shortages: Evidence and Analysis
🎦 28:21-33:45⏩
Jonathan discusses the ongoing manpower shortages plaguing Russian forces, citing reports from both Ukrainian and Russian sources. He highlights the admission by Russian sources that the Kharkiv offensive was a failure and required the redeployment of troops from other fronts, further straining their resources. Jonathan then focuses on the increasing use of wounded soldiers in combat, pointing to the existence of units specifically composed of injured personnel. He reads a thread from a Russian military blogger detailing the dire conditions in these units, with wounded soldiers often receiving minimal medical care before being sent back to the front lines. Jonathan emphasizes that while these accounts aim to expose the brutality of the Russian military system, they should not be misconstrued as a call for sympathy towards Russian soldiers who chose to participate in the invasion of Ukraine. He questions the accuracy of Russian claims regarding volunteer recruitment numbers, suggesting that they are likely inflated for propaganda purposes.
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Russian Soldier Imprisons Ukrainian Woman for Speaking Ukrainian
🎦 33:45-35:05⏩
Jonathan expresses outrage over an incident where a Russian soldier admitted to imprisoning a Ukrainian woman in Berdyansk for speaking Ukrainian. He contrasts this blatant act of linguistic oppression with the Russian narrative that attempts to portray Ukrainians as neo-Nazis seeking to suppress the Russian language.
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Prisoner Exchange and the Treatment of POWs
🎦 35:05-37:32⏩
Jonathan reports on a recent prisoner exchange that saw 90 prisoners released. He shows footage of a Ukrainian marine returning home after two years in Russian captivity, visibly emotional about being reunited with his family and hearing Ukrainian spoken again. Jonathan contrasts the treatment of Ukrainian and Russian POWs, suggesting that while Ukrainians generally return home in poor physical condition, likely due to inadequate nutrition and potential torture, Russian POWs appear to be in relatively good health upon their release. He attributes this disparity to Ukraine's adherence to international law regarding the treatment of prisoners of war, in contrast to Russia's blatant disregard for such standards.
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Trial of Evan Gershkovich: Update and Commentary
🎦 37:32-38:05⏩
Jonathan provides an update on the case of Evan Gershkovich, an American journalist detained in Russia on espionage charges, highlighting the start of his trial in Yekaterinburg. He cites statements from the Wall Street Journal condemning the charges as bogus and emphasizes the injustice of Gershkovich's detention.
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Ex-Wagner Fighters and Criminals Pose a Threat to Russian Society
🎦 38:05-39:33⏩
Jonathan discusses a UK Defence Intelligence report highlighting the issue of criminals, particularly ex-Wagner fighters, returning to Russia after serving in Ukraine and contributing to a rise in violent crime. He mentions that the Russian government has stopped publishing official crime statistics, likely to conceal this trend. Jonathan suggests that this is a risk the Kremlin is willing to take to maintain its war effort, highlighting the moral bankruptcy of a regime that prioritizes military objectives over the well-being of its own citizens.
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Ukrainian Economy Shows Signs of Growth
🎦 39:33-40:05⏩
Jonathan concludes with a positive development, citing a report from the Ukrainian statistics service indicating a 6.5% growth in Ukraine's GDP for the first quarter of the year. He notes that while this is a positive sign, it comes from a low base following the significant economic downturn caused by the war.
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Wrap Up
🎦 40:05-40:12⏩
Jonathan thanks viewers for watching and encourages them to like, subscribe, and share the video. He signs off with his trademark "toodlepips."
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