Ukraine Conflict: Full Frontline Update

"I don't know that Russia can launch... I keep saying this... But you know, if you look at Bakhmut... and the size of the area... and you think that took them just over a year to take that area... and you're like okay so what you're trying to get to Moldova to Transnistria... that's what you're still explicitly saying that's what your generals are saying... that ain't ever going to happen... just not... you do not have the ability to do that."

Hello Team

🎦 00:00-00:41⏩

Jonathan welcomes everyone to the update and apologises for the video being later than normal, explaining that "life got in the way". He thanks JR for the mapping and mentions that he will be discussing the strikes on Belbek Air Base in Crimea in more detail in another video.

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📍 FRONT-LINE UPDATE -🗺️ MAP LEGEND

Budanov: Ukraine Counteroffensive in Spring

🎦 00:41-04:26⏩

Jonathan discusses comments made by Ukrainian Head of Military Intelligence, Kyrylo Budanov, who has announced a new counteroffensive for the Ukrainians in the Spring of 2024. Budanov believes that the current Russian offensive, which began in November 2023, will have completely run out of steam by then. Jonathan tends to agree with this assessment, arguing that the Russian offensive has been largely ineffective, with minimal territorial gains and significant equipment and troop losses. He uses the example of the Battle for Bakhmut, which took the Russians over a year to capture, to illustrate his point. Jonathan believes that Russia lacks the capacity to achieve their stated objective of capturing Moldova and Transnistria. Jonathan then discusses comments made by US Assistant Secretary of State for Political Affairs, Victoria Nuland, that Putin will be in for some "nice surprises" on the battlefield and that Ukraine will make "very strong success this year." He then talks about the recently announced delivery of Ground Launched Small Diameter Bombs (GLSDB) to Ukraine and speculates that, based on the value of the contract, Ukraine could receive as many as 600. Jonathan believes that this will significantly bolster Ukraine's military capabilities.

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Kreminna-Svatove Front

🎦 04:26-08:14⏩

Jonathan begins his overview of the frontline, reminding viewers to check the key on the map if needed. He starts by discussing the situation in the Kreminna-Svatove sector, where he notes a discrepancy between the various maps he uses. While Surat Maps indicates that Russia has made significant gains west and southeast of Tavivka, War Mapper and Deep State Map have not yet reflected these changes. Jonathan does not appear overly concerned by the reported Russian advances in this area. He mentions that he is unsure how accurate the advances reported by Surat Maps are, as other mappers are not in agreement and this is not an area he considers particularly important. He notes that Andrew Perpertua has reported Ukrainian forces destroying advancing Russian troops near Yampolivka, possibly with the use of loitering munitions, often referred to as "Baba Yaga". Jonathan notes an increase in the use of these munitions and their effectiveness, pointing to footage showing 11 Russian vehicles destroyed by one octocopter.

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Bakhmut Front

🎦 08:14-10:17⏩

Moving on to Bakhmut, Jonathan reports Ukrainian gains north of the city, suggesting that they are attempting to push Russian forces back from Chasiv Yar. There are unconfirmed reports that fighting in the area, particularly around Bohdanivka has quietened down. Jonathan believes it is important for Ukrainian forces to maintain a buffer zone between themselves and the Russians in this area and notes that they could be on the verge of retaking Bohdanivka if they continue their advance. DirectMap also reports Ukrainian forces recovering positions north of Bakhmut and engaging Russian troops in the vicinity of Bohdanivka and the railway and Popivka cemetery areas. Global War Monitor, however, claims that Russia has captured a small patch of land north of the Dacha area, which Jonathan attributes to them catching up with advances previously reported by Surat Maps.

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Donetsk - Horlivka Front

🎦 10:17-15:16⏩

In the Donetsk sector, near Horlivka, Jonathan reports no change around Klishchiivka, Andriyivka, Zelenopilya and Kodema, noting the importance of the situation at Klishchiivka stabilizing. However, he remains skeptical about previous reports, specifically from Surat Maps, that Russian forces have captured trenches overlooking the town. Shifting his attention to the town of Horlivka, Jonathan reports a successful Ukrainian night-time assault on Russian positions on the western outskirts of the town, forcing them back from a series of strategically important slag heaps (also known as spoilings or tailings), which offer a significant height advantage to whoever controls them. Surat Maps indicates that the Russians may have retaken the high ground since then, although Jonathan believes it will be difficult for them to hold. Both Surat Maps and Andrew Perpertua's maps show Ukrainian territorial gains south of Horlivka, near the settlements of Novolyubivka and Pivdenne, pushing the Russians back to the 2014 line of control. Jonathan believes that this was a planned Ukrainian attack, potentially in response to intelligence suggesting a weakening of Russian defenses in the area. He speculates that the Ukrainians may be trying to draw Russian forces away from other areas of the front.

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Donetsk - Avdiivka Front

🎦 15:16-18:52⏩

Jonathan moves on to the Avdiivka area, where he notes that Russian forces have made gains in the industrial zone. He notes some discrepancies between Surat Maps and Andrew Perpertua's maps. Perpetua reports a Ukrainian attack and advance south of Pivdenne, while Surat Maps shows Russian control in the area. Jonathan believes that Surat Maps is the most accurate of the two, highlighting a common issue with Surat Maps whereby they tend to designate any area where Russian troops or vehicles are present as being under their control, even if this is not necessarily the case. He also notes reports of Russian gains near Spartak and Opitne, but believes these may also be the result of Surat Maps exaggerating the situation. He concludes that the area around Avdiivka is where the Ukrainians are under the greatest pressure, which is not unexpected.

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Donetsk - Vuhledar Front

🎦 18:52-20:39⏩

Near Novomykhailivka, Surat Maps shows Russian advances with them taking a series of positions, although Jonathan advises taking this information with a pinch of salt as Surat Maps can be hit and miss with the accuracy of its reporting.

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Zaporizhzhia Front

🎦 20:39-22:46⏩

In the Zaporizhzhia Oblast, Surat Maps and Andrew Perpertua's maps show that Russian forces have made some gains near Pryyutne and Velyka Novosilka, an area which has seen little in the way of fighting in recent months. Jonathan again highlights the discrepancy between the maps regarding the situation west of Robotyne, but speculates that Ukrainian forces may have recovered some ground in the area. He also questions whether Surat Maps may have been too quick to designate the area as being under Russian control.

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Jonathan's Concluding Thoughts

🎦 22:46-23:49⏩

Jonathan concludes the frontline update, stating that there is nothing to report from Kherson or the south. He reiterates his surprise at Budanov's assertion that Ukraine will launch a counteroffensive in the spring of 2024, questioning whether, given their ongoing mobilization issues, they would be in a position to do so. He speculates that this could be a deliberate attempt by Budanov to demoralize the Russians or that it is based on the assumption that Russia will have exhausted its resources by the spring. He expresses his hope that Ukraine will soon take delivery of Army Tactical Missile Systems (ATACMS), which would enable them to strike deep behind Russian lines and target logistical hubs and airbases.

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Wrap up

🎦 23:49-24:19⏩

Jonathan thanks viewers for watching and apologises again for his voice. He explains that he will be busy with family commitments on Saturday, which may impact his upload schedule, although this is often not the case!

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