Ukraine War Update NEWS: Pt 1 - Overnight & Other News
Table of Contents 📖
"The Russians are being unfair to themselves by lying so often"
Hello Team
🎦 00:00-00:45⏩
Jonathan welcomes everyone to the first part of his Ukraine War update. It's going to be a busy day with the kids' sporting season starting, although Jonathan's partner has kindly taken one of their sons to rugby practice so he can crack on with recording the day's videos as there has been a massive drone strike on Russian infrastructure overnight.
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🪦 DISCLAIMER FOR GENERAL STAFF LOSSES DATA
- These are real people with real lives and real families who love them. Don’t let the numbers sap your humanity.
- These numbers probably aren’t accurate but they’re the best we have and we don’t need them to be accurate to be indicative of patterns of activity.
- All losses are estimates. Losses cannot be counted with accuracy because of the conditions on the ground.
- Both sides would see it to be of their advantage to minimize their own losses maximize the other side’s losses.
- Neither side releases their losses but we have enough transparency from the Ukrainian side to have confidence in they are indicative.
- Personnel losses are hard to count. If a soldier gets injured, heals up, and returns to the front line only to get injured again, is that one loss or two? Also, how to deal with losses from PMC’s or soldiers fighting with RF from occupied territories?
- Equipment losses are hard to count. If an AA complex involves several parts and one part gets disabled, is that a loss, or a fraction of a loss? If a tank gets disabled, repaired, back into the fight, then disabled again, is that one lost tank or two?
- All recorded losses are vulnerable to multiple reporting. We have already seen numerous cases of multiple drones in the air reporting the same loss from different angles as multiple engagements.
- Losses are not always reported on the same day they occurred. It is frequent that drone losses are reported at least 24 hours after other terrestrial equipment losses. Certain losses may not be reported for days or weeks for military intelligence reasons.
Ukrainian General Staff Report - Russian Losses (31 August 2024)
🎦 00:45-03:33⏩
Jonathan reviews that day's Ukrainian General Staff figures for Russian losses, reminding viewers that the usual caveats apply. The figures reported are:
- 1,350 personnel - an exceptionally high figure for a second day running and indicative of the high rate of attrition faced by Russian forces
- 10 tanks - slightly higher than the average for the last few days, indicating that Russia is once again on the offensive
- 24 Armoured Fighting Vehicles - once again higher than the average and likely a result of Russian offensive operations
- 22 artillery systems - still above the daily average, but lower than in recent days, possibly indicating the effectiveness of Ukrainian counter battery fire
- 56 vehicles and fuel tanks
- 14 pieces of special equipment
Jonathan notes that these figures demonstrate how perceptions have been skewed during the course of the war. 600 casualties was once considered a high figure for Russian losses, whereas figures over 1000 have become normalised. Jonathan points out that figures of 900 or 950 are still high but seem low given recent figures.
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Russian Missile Strike on Ammunition Depot in Bakhmut
🎦 03:33-04:27⏩
Footage released by the Russians appears to show the aftermath of a missile strike on an ammunition and equipment depot in Bakhmut, Donetsk Oblast. Whilst it is unusual to see reports of strikes in this area, it is unclear what weaponry was used. Russia claims the strike was carried out by a Storm Shadow missile.
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Ukrainian Strike on Russian 2S9 Nona Howitzer and Ural Support Vehicle
🎦 04:27-06:19⏩
Jonathan plays footage released by a Russian serviceman depicting the aftermath of a Ukrainian strike on a Russian military convoy, noting how the random fires caused by the strike are similar to those seen in action films, although in this instance, they are real. The footage shows a destroyed 2S9 Nona howitzer being towed by a Ural military truck. According to WarTranslator, the strike was carried out by a Ukrainian First Person View (FPV) loitering munition. The Ural truck had been carrying a 2S9 Nona Howitzer and a consignment of Krasnopol laser-guided projectiles. Jonathan points out that the destruction of the Krasnopol ammunition is a significant blow for the Russians due to their accuracy.
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Heavy Fighting Near Prokrovsk - Ukrainian 59th Brigade Destroys 12 Russian Armoured Vehicles
🎦 06:19-07:42⏩
According to reports on Telegram, the Ukrainian 59th Brigade has successfully repelled a large Russian attack near Prokrovsk, destroying 12 out of 16 Russian armoured vehicles during heavy fighting. The report states that the Ukrainians faced several waves of infantry supported by 16 armoured vehicles. The Russians are reported to have lost 93 personnel in the attack. Jonathan notes that the high number of Russian armoured vehicles destroyed in the attack tallies with the figures given in that day's Ukrainian General Staff report.
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Russian Strike on Ukrainian Convoy in Sumy Oblast - Military or Grain Convoy?
🎦 07:42-19:12⏩
Footage released by pro-Ukrainian open-source intelligence account WarVehicleTracker shows the aftermath of a Russian missile strike on what was initially thought to be a Ukrainian military convoy in Sumy Oblast. The footage, filmed at night, shows multiple secondary explosions and airbursts. Several commentators disputed the assessment that a military target had been hit, with some suggesting that a grain convoy had been destroyed. Further footage released later in the day appeared to confirm that the target had indeed been a civilian grain convoy. Jonathan uses this example to explain how inductive reasoning and Bayesian probability can be used to assess the veracity of claims made by both sides, especially when trying to sift fact from fiction in the fog of war. He points out that Russia has a history of making false claims, and therefore a high burden of proof is required before any of their claims can be taken seriously. On the other hand, the Ukrainians generally have a good track record of making accurate assessments. Jonathan stresses that this does not mean that Ukrainians never lie or make mistakes, but that a lower burden of proof is required to assess the likely veracity of their claims.
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Ukrainian Air Defences Shoot Down Russian Orion Drone in Kursk Oblast
🎦 19:12-20:01⏩
The Ukrainian Air Force has shot down a Russian Orion Drone in Kursk Oblast. The Orion is a Medium Altitude Long Endurance (MALE) Unmanned Aerial Vehicle that can carry a 200 kg payload, including air-to-surface missiles.
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Ukrainian Air Force Pilot 'Moonfish' Killed During Russian Missile Attack
🎦 20:01-22:09⏩
Jonathan discusses the death of Ukrainian Air Force pilot Andriy Pilshchykov (callsign 'Moonfish') who was killed when his F-16 fighter jet crashed whilst repelling a Russian air attack on 26 August 2024. It was initially reported that the crash may have been caused by a malfunction or pilot error, however, unconfirmed reports suggested that the aircraft was brought down by friendly fire from a Ukrainian Patriot surface-to-air missile battery. Jonathan highlights that incidents of friendly fire are not uncommon in warfare, citing the example of the only British Army Challenger 2 tank destroyed in combat was hit by a US Army A-10 Warthog. He also refers to reports that Ukrainian Air Force commander Mykola Oleshchuk has been removed from his post, suggesting that this may be related to the loss of the F-16, although this has been denied.
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Car Belonging to Chechen Businessman Set on Fire in Moscow
🎦 22:09-23:49⏩
Jonathan reports that a car belonging to a Chechen businessman, Evgeny Nechayev, was set on fire in Moscow. Nechayev is understood to have business interests in Chechnya.
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Moscow on High Alert Following Warnings of Ukrainian Drone Attacks
🎦 23:49-25:08⏩
Jonathan reports that the Moscow emergency services were placed on high alert in the days leading up to 1 September following intelligence reports warning of imminent Ukrainian drone strikes.
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Ukrainian Drone Attacks on Targets in Russia (31 August-01 September)
🎦 25:08-32:11⏩
Jonathan discusses a series of significant Ukrainian drone attacks that took place overnight on Russian infrastructure targets. In contrast to previous Russian claims that all incoming Ukrainian drones have been destroyed, there is considerable evidence of successful Ukrainian drone strikes, including footage of an oil refinery on fire. The drone attacks appear to have focussed on energy infrastructure in particular, with strikes reported at:
- Konnikovo Power Plant, Moscow Oblast
- Kashira State District Power Plant, Moscow Oblast
- Unconfirmed location in Tver Oblast
Jonathan points out that whilst the Russians may well have shot down a significant number of drones, even a small number of successful strikes will affect Russian morale. He goes on to suggest that the Kremlin will attempt to spin the attacks as an attack on the Russian people to bolster support for the war. On the other hand, some Russians may question why, after two and a half years, they are being asked to make further sacrifices to support a war that appears to be going badly wrong.
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Fire at Atlas Oil Depot, Rostov Oblast, Continues to Burn for Fifth Day
🎦 32:11-33:00⏩
Jonathan reports that a fire at the Atlas Oil Depot in Rostov Oblast, Russia, continues to burn for a fifth consecutive day. The fire was probably caused by a Ukrainian drone or sabotage attack.
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Ukrainian Defence Minister Denies Link Between F-16 Crash and Commander's Dismissal
🎦 33:00-33:45⏩
Ukrainian Defence Minister Oleksii Reznikov has given an interview to CNN in which he denied that the dismissal of Ukrainian Air Force commander Mykola Oleshchuk was connected to the downing of an F-16 on 26 August. Jonathan notes that the timing is suspicious, given the accusations levelled at Oleshchuk.
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Further Thoughts on Oil Refineries
🎦 33:45-36:11⏩
Jonathan plays further footage of the oil refinery hit during the Ukrainian attacks and explains how even relatively minor damage can have a significant impact on production. He speculates that refineries rely on a linear process, meaning that any disruption will stop the entire facility from functioning. He returns to the subject of the Russian missile attack on the Ukrainian convoy in Sumy Oblast to highlight that WarVehicleTracker has now conceded that the target was almost certainly a civilian grain convoy after all.
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Wrap up
🎦 36:11-36:11⏩
Jonathan signs off for the day and reminds viewers that he will be back soon with part 2.
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