Ukraine War Update EXTRA: Crimea as a Target, WIA to KIA
Table of Contents 📖
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"I think Putin will only, Putin will never leave without Crimea and therefore the only way this ends is if Putin dies, you know, natural causes and all that, or there's some kind of revolution or there's a coup."
Hello Team!
Jonathan discusses the huge scale of the demining effort required in Ukraine, with 880,000 hectares of mined territory in the Kherson region alone. So far only 6,200 hectares have been checked, with 57,000 explosive devices found. Demining the whole country will take significant time and resources, potentially spurring development of new autonomous demining technologies.
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Quiet confidence of Ukrainian troops in the east
An article in The Economist highlights the quiet confidence of Ukrainian commanders in the east, despite expectations of a renewed Russian offensive. Colonel Maestro notes the superior drone intelligence and equipment of Ukrainian forces compared to the Russians. However, Ukrainian commanders say that while they have enough weapons and manpower to hold the Russians at bay, they still need more Western equipment to launch their own full-scale counter-offensive.
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High Russian casualty rates due to lack of medical care
Analysis by Andrew Perpetua shows how delayed medical treatment is leading to very high fatality rates among wounded Russian soldiers. In one example, out of 42 Russians attacked, 21 were wounded with 3 killed immediately. After waiting 8 hours for treatment, 7 more died - a 48% fatality rate among the casualties. This helps explain the unusually high ratio of Russian soldiers killed vs wounded compared to typical conflicts.
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Effectiveness of precision-guided artillery
Jonathan emphasises the devastating effectiveness of precision-guided artillery rounds like Excalibur compared to unguided rounds. Excalibur's GPS guidance allows it to hit within meters of the target, destroying equipment and crew in a single shot. He contrasts this with the less effective Lancet loitering munitions used by Russia.
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Crimea as a target for Ukraine
Contrary to some analysts, Jonathan argues that Crimea is currently an unrealistic goal for Ukraine to recapture militarily in the near-term. This is due to the peninsula's geography with limited access points that are well-defended by Russia, the need for Ukraine to first liberate Kherson and Zaporizhzhia oblasts, and the political reality that Putin views Crimea as non-negotiable. Retaking it would require either soundly defeating Russian forces or employing long-range weapons like ATACMS to make it untenable to hold. Ultimately, Jonathan believes forcibly retaking Crimea is unlikely without a change of leadership in Russia.
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Wrap up
Jonathan notes he still has more topics to cover in a part 2 of this extra update. He thanks viewers and encourages them to like, subscribe and share the video.
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