Ukraine War Update NEWS: Pt 1 - Overnight & Other News
Table of Contents 📖
"The Russians advance in the region appears to have been bogged down in the past two over the past two days. The Ukrainian general staff also notes that not a single attack from the Russians has been detected. Perhaps the losses are too great for Russia."
Hello Team
🎦 00:00-00:21⏩
Jonathan welcomes viewers to another ATP Geopolitics video. He reminds viewers where to find the General Staff figures for Russian losses and that the usual caveats apply.
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🪦 DISCLAIMER FOR GENERAL STAFF LOSSES DATA
- These are real people with real lives and real families who love them. Don’t let the numbers sap your humanity.
- These numbers probably aren’t accurate but they’re the best we have and we don’t need them to be accurate to be indicative of patterns of activity.
- All losses are estimates. Losses cannot be counted with accuracy because of the conditions on the ground.
- Both sides would see it to be of their advantage to minimize their own losses maximize the other side’s losses.
- Neither side releases their losses but we have enough transparency from the Ukrainian side to have confidence in they are indicative.
- Personnel losses are hard to count. If a soldier gets injured, heals up, and returns to the front line only to get injured again, is that one loss or two? Also, how to deal with losses from PMC’s or soldiers fighting with RF from occupied territories?
- Equipment losses are hard to count. If an AA complex involves several parts and one part gets disabled, is that a loss, or a fraction of a loss? If a tank gets disabled, repaired, back into the fight, then disabled again, is that one lost tank or two?
- All recorded losses are vulnerable to multiple reporting. We have already seen numerous cases of multiple drones in the air reporting the same loss from different angles as multiple engagements.
- Losses are not always reported on the same day they occurred. It is frequent that drone losses are reported at least 24 hours after other terrestrial equipment losses. Certain losses may not be reported for days or weeks for military intelligence reasons.
Russian Losses
🎦 00:21-03:27⏩
Jonathan describes the daily Russian losses as "heavy", noting the significance of 1,400 personnel, 14 tanks and 35 armoured personnel vehicles lost. 50 artillery systems lost is three times the daily average. He questions the reported number of Russian drones shot down by Ukrainians (81) as the Russians are unlikely to have sent that number in a single day.
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Sevastopol - Russian Warship sunk
🎦 03:27-06:18⏩
Jonathan reports that sources are claiming that the Russian Project 22800 (Cyclone class) small missile ship was sunk by two ATACMS missiles on the night of 19th May 2024 in Sevastopol. 6 Russian servicemen are reported killed and 11 injured. There is also speculation that the Russians may have also lost a minesweeper. Jonathan notes that the loss of the Cyclone-class ship is significant as it is capable of firing Kalibr cruise missiles. The Ukrainian navy are verifying the information and are awaiting satellite imagery for confirmation. If confirmed, this would mean that no cruise missile-carrying ships would be stationed in Sevastopol.
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ATACMS - Impact
🎦 06:18-07:53⏩
Jonathan notes that this and the previous two missile and drone attacks by Ukraine have been "incredible" but questions whether the mainstream media are covering these successes. He cites a Forbes article by David Axe which suggests that the use of ATACMS to target the Kovrovets could mean that Ukraine has the 170-mile (M48) or 190-mile (M57) ATACMS with a 470lb warhead in addition to the M39 and M39A1.
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Russian logistics - Kherson Oblast
🎦 07:53-09:32⏩
Footage has emerged showing the Russians using civilian vehicles (vans/golf carts) for logistics in Kherson Oblast. Jonathan questions whether this is out of desperation because of a shortage of military vehicles or whether this is a tactical decision as they are less well-protected.
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Avdiivka - Drone footage
🎦 09:32-11:40⏩
Drone footage from the Ocheretyne area (north of Avdiivka) shows the destruction of a building identified as a Russian drone base. There is also footage of a T-80 tank being destroyed, likely by an FPV drone.
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Drone warfare
🎦 11:40-12:50⏩
Jonathan notes that whilst he is showing footage of Russian vehicles and infrastructure being destroyed, it does not mean that the Russians are not also using drones to target Ukrainian positions. He highlights that the data from Oryx shows that Ukrainians are more successful, likely because they are not on the offensive and do not need to use as many vehicles as the Russians.
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Russia on Fire
🎦 12:50-13:07⏩
Jonathan shows footage of a local government building on fire in Russia, speculating on the cause.
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Drone and Missile Interception Rates
🎦 13:07-16:47⏩
Jonathan reports that Ukrainian sources are claiming a 100% interception rate for Shahed drones - 29 out of 29 shot down. Whilst he acknowledges the possibility of disinformation, he notes that Ukraine has previously been "very honest" about such figures. He speculates that the increasing number of air defence systems being provided by allies has led to this improvement. Missile interception rates are more problematic because of the types of missiles used. Jonathan speculates that the effectiveness of air defence systems against drones may force the Russians to consider whether it is worthwhile continuing to use them. He shows footage of explosions in Donetsk (cause unknown), fires in Krasnodar and damage to aircraft in Kushchevskaya (all in Russia) on the night of 19th May 2024.
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Luhansk - Storm Shadow/SCALP Missiles
🎦 17:43-18:51⏩
Jonathan reports that there has been a strike on an industrial zone near Yervelyny in Luhansk which is being used by the Russians as a military base. Footage has emerged of a missile strike on the base, purportedly by Storm Shadow or SCALP missiles.
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Kharkiv Offensive Update
🎦 19:11-22:20⏩
Jonathan reports that the Ukrainian 92nd Brigade (Achilles Unit) has retaken some previously lost positions. There is also footage of the Russian Volunteer Corps fighting near Vovchansk. He notes that there is evidence to suggest that the Russian advance appears to have stalled, corroborating claims from the Ukrainian General Staff that there had been no attacks from the Russians.
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Zelensky, US and the West
🎦 22:20-28:50⏩
Jonathan discusses comments made by Zelensky that the West doesn't want Ukraine to win, citing US fear of the implications of a Russian loss. He notes that there is a theory that the Biden administration and other anti-escalation thinkers are concerned about the impact of a Russian Federation collapse on global security. Jonathan argues that the current strategy of providing limited support to Ukraine will only prolong the war, calling on the US to commit to either fully backing Ukraine or negotiating a lasting peace settlement.
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Russian Military Assets - Olenya Airbase
🎦 28:50-29:40⏩
Satellite imagery appears to show that Russia has moved a significant number of its long-range bombers - Tupolev Tu-295MS and Tupolev Tu-22M3 to Olenya Airbase. Jonathan speculates that this could be a move to protect the aircraft, but will make missions more challenging in terms of logistics.
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Ukraine - Power Outages
🎦 29:40-30:06⏩
Jonathan reports that Ukraine will be introducing planned power outages from the late evening of 20th May 2024.
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Russia - Flooding in Yakutia
🎦 29:57-30:21⏩
Jonathan reports that the Russian region of Yakutia is experiencing widespread flooding.
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Russia - Internal Security Shortfall
🎦 30:21-35:18⏩
Jonathan reports that Russia's internal security services have a massive staff shortfall, with some reports suggesting it to be as high as 152,000. The shortage is attributed to a number of factors, including the war in Ukraine, low pay, and demoralization. The shortage has led to a rise in crime, with many serious offenses going unsolved.
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Wrap up
🎦 35:18-35:34⏩
Jonathan summarises that there are many signs that things are not going well in Russia, citing the economic situation, the impact of the war and the floods.
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