Ukraine War Update EXTRA: My Bias, ISW, Casualty Figures, Germany's Resistance to Aid
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This summary has been produced automatically by an AI Large Language Model (LLM) without any human intervention. Whilst every effort has been made to prompt the LLM to produce accurate output, there may be inconsistencies, inaccuracies or hallucinations!
Table of Contents 📖
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"At the end of the day, intelligence services aren't in the business of giving in to propaganda. Because if you are accepting really dodgy figures and then you're making government decisions based on those figures, then you're going to be making bad decisions."
Hello Team!
- The UK is handing over decommissioned mine hunters HMS Ramsey and HMS Blythe to the Ukrainian Navy, which will be useful for clearing mines in the Black Sea after the war
- The US Treasury has recognized the Wagner PMC as an international crime organization and will adopt sanctions against it
Russian logistics in southern Kherson after retreat
- Russian forces had to adapt their logistics after retreating from Kherson due to HIMARS strikes
- They are now placing command and control hubs just outside HIMARS range along the Crimea-Melitopol railway line
- Giving Ukraine longer range capability would stretch Russian supply lines further and create grave problems, as happened in Kherson
Casualty figures and the numbers game
- Ukraine needs to inflict heavy losses on Russian troop and equipment accumulations to counter Russia's numerical advantage
- Visually confirmed equipment losses from Oryx show Russia has lost 3 times more than Ukraine
- US estimates 188,000 Russian casualties (killed and wounded) were shared at Ramstein
- Intelligence services aren't in the business of propaganda as bad figures lead to bad decisions
- Exact casualty figures are very difficult to determine but evidence suggests Russian losses are higher
Addressing questions about bias and sources
- Jonathan acknowledges his pro-Ukraine bias but wants an accurate view of what's happening
- He uses the ISW as they are a good aggregator of Ukrainian and Russian sources, not because he blindly accepts their analysis
- Regarding Scott Ritter and Douglas MacGregor, Jonathan hasn't had time to dig into their claims in detail
- Casualty figures are indicative rather than gospel; Jonathan focuses more on the context and implications than the exact numbers
Hungary "de-NATOizing" its military
- Over 170 Hungarian generals and senior officers forced into early retirement by new pro-Russian defense minister
- Those dismissed are NATO-experienced, multilingual officers while new leadership is more Russia-friendly
- Represents worrying slide towards authoritarianism and away from NATO/EU under Orban regime
Germany's resistance to providing Leopard tanks
- Germany's hesitance driven more by economic ties to Russia than WW2 legacy
- Wants to keep option to resume business with Russia and get gas flowing again
- There are allegations of Russians having kompromat on German politicians after inviting them to Russia and setting up "honey traps" in the past 20 years
Russian field fortifications in Ukraine
- Russia has built hundreds of kilometers of trenches and barriers, especially around occupied cities like Tokmak
- While not impenetrable, they will pose a challenge to Ukrainian advances
- Interactive map available showing many of the fortifications
Wrap up
Jonathan thanks viewers for bearing with his unedited "splurge" of a video. He appreciates the brilliant and thoughtful comments, and welcomes respectful questions or disagreements. He loves engaging with his audience this way.
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