Ukraine War Update NEWS: We Are Moving Towards a World War
Table of Contents 📖
"We need to be looking at the battle space the cyber space and the head space"
Hello Team
🎦 00:00-00:09⏩
Jonathan welcomes everyone to another ATP Geopolitics video - this is the second part of his Ukraine War Update for 27th February 2024. He apologises for the delay in getting the first video out - this is due to a YouTube outage.
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Macron Convenes Emergency Meeting in Paris
🎦 00:09-07:07⏩
Jonathan believes that we are entering a period of picking sides with the situation in Ukraine and that recent events indicate that things are moving towards a more formal conflict. Jonathan believes that it's clear that European nations are starting to understand the gravity of the situation and that not acting decisively now to assist Ukraine will have significant negative consequences in the future. To illustrate his point, he references a recent meeting that Emmanuel Macron convened in Paris with various European dignitaries. At the beginning of the war, Macron positioned himself as a peacemaker between Putin and Zelensky - Jonathan believes that there's a certain amount of political theatre and posturing involved as leaders try to position themselves in a favourable light. Jonathan praises leaders such as Mette Frederiksen of Denmark and Kaja Kallas of Estonia for doing a good job in supporting Ukraine. Macron has since realised that a peace deal with Putin is not possible. Jonathan believes that Macron is trying to present himself as a strong leader in support of Ukraine.
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Macron Announces New Measures to Support Ukraine
🎦 07:07-07:24⏩
Macron announced a raft of new measures to provide weapons to Ukraine during the summit. These measures include the creation of a "coalition for deep strikes" which would see the provision of medium to long-range missiles and bombs. This has been blocked by France previously. The purpose of the meeting was to present a unified front and counter the narrative that Russia is winning the war.
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Jonathan's Take on Deep Strikes and the Importance of Ammunition
🎦 07:24-09:11⏩
Jonathan has been advocating for this strategy - the provision of long-range weapons and deep strikes for a long time. He believes that by providing these weapons, the Ukrainians can effectively push back the Russians without the need to commit foreign troops to the conflict. He believes that if Ukraine's allies were to adopt this approach with enough weapons/ammunition for 6 months to a year, the Russians would be significantly weakened. Ukraine would then be in a strong position to regain territory.
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Controlling the Narrative: The Importance of Fighting the Information War
🎦 09:11-10:18⏩
Jonathan points out that the meeting was not only about military aid but also about controlling the narrative and fighting back in the information war.
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Macron: "We are not tired and are determined to thwart Russian aggression"
🎦 10:18-12:25⏩
The meeting included representatives from Scandinavian and Baltic countries, Germany, Netherlands, Great Britain - a "who's who" of European leaders and an indication of how important this is being perceived by these nations. Jonathan mentions Kaja Kallas again - her profile is growing and she's a rising star. Kallas was clear that the purpose of the meeting was to discuss how to help Ukraine win the war. Estonia is committing to providing military aid to Ukraine amounting to 0.25% of their GDP for the next four years - Jonathan points out that this is very doable and that if all NATO countries were to follow suit, Ukraine would be in a strong position. He credits Dom Nicholls of the Daily Telegraph for highlighting the significance of this Estonian report.
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France Lifts Objections to EU funds being used for Ammunition
🎦 12:25-13:45⏩
In a significant move, Macron announced that France would no longer block EU funds being used to procure ammunition from countries outside the EU. This is a major development and Jonathan interprets this as an admission of how desperate the situation is - particularly given the lack of support/inaction from the US in recent months. Macron called for Europe to prepare for a protracted conflict with Russia.
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Zelensky's Speech
13:45-15:26⏩
Zelensky addressed the meeting virtually, highlighting the importance of a unified European response in strengthening security, resilience and ensuring the continuity of support for Ukraine. He believes that Russia's losses in Ukraine serve as a lesson to Russia and other enemies of Europe that aggression will not succeed.
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Macron: "Sending Western Troops to Ukraine Should Not Be Excluded"
15:26-19:04⏩
In a controversial statement, Macron stated that sending Western troops to Ukraine in the future should not be excluded. Jonathan believes that this is a clever tactic and likens it to the Russian use of information warfare, by deliberately placing this idea into the information space, Macron is shifting the Overton Window - what is deemed acceptable to discuss, normalising discussion about a potentially sensitive topic. Jonathan acknowledges that whilst there may be criticism of Macron in some circles, the fact that it's being discussed is important. Predictably, Jens Stoltenberg, NATO Secretary General has said that there are no plans to send troops to Ukraine. The leaders of Poland, Czech Republic and Sweden have also ruled this out for now although Duda (Poland) said that there had been heated discussion about it. Jonathan believes that for there to have been a disagreement, there must have been some support for Macron's statement.
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Rimantas: "There are effective tasks these troops could do in Ukraine... Training, Logistics"
19:04-21:43⏩
Jonathan stresses that sending troops does not necessarily mean sending frontline troops but could involve sending troops to train Ukrainian forces in support or maintenance roles. He cites Rimantas who believes that Western troops could be deployed to non-frontline roles such as training and logistics. Jonathan believes that the most important aspect is that the taboo of talking about it has been broken.
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France Lifts Objection to Using EU funds to Procure Ammunition
21:43-24:29⏩
Jonathan discusses two important decisions taken at the summit: France lifting the objection to the use of EU funds to buy ammunition and the creation of a coalition to provide medium-to-long-range missiles to Ukraine. Other priorities included cyber defence, joint production of weapons and ammunition, bolstering Moldova's defences and mine clearance. It will take 10 days to implement the Czech proposal to use EU cash to buy weapons on the world market. Macron's suggestion that sending troops was one of several options being discussed has drawn criticism from French opposition leaders. Macron is critical of the West's response in recent months, acknowledging that they have been too slow to react and support Ukraine.
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Munich Security Conference: Ukraine's Growing Importance
24:29-26:52⏩
Jonathan mentions a video he was sent and thanks Kathy for bringing this to his attention. The video features discussions from the Munich Security Conference featuring Zhani Begdos (editor of the Economist), Petr Pavel (Czech President), Kaja Kallas, Alexander De Croo (Belgian PM), Hillary Clinton, Mette Frederiksen (Danish PM), the Bulgarian PM, Andriy Yermak, Niall Ferguson (historian), Timothy Snyder (historian) and General Petraeus. This demonstrates how seriously the war is being taken by world leaders. Jonathan believes that the key take away from this conference is that Ukraine must be given everything it needs to defeat Russia in order to prevent the conflict from escalating.
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Timothy Snyder: "We have to do our part to connect with the people on the ground... This is a World War"
26:52-29:45⏩
Snyder believes that the world has not done enough to connect with the Ukrainian people and stresses that whilst the conflict has global implications, it is only Ukraine that is bearing the brunt of the fighting. He draws parallels with the situation in 1938/39 when Poland attempted to hold back the German army and argues that because Ukraine has been so successful in resisting the invasion, the gravity of the situation has not been fully appreciated. This has led to delays in providing them with the full support that they need. Snyder laments the West's lack of action, believing that the West has become complacent and over-reliant on economic superiority as a guarantor of victory and that the speed and creativity shown in previous conflicts (such as WW2) is absent.
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Timothy Snyder: "We can't do without the category of victory"
29:45-31:17⏩
Jonathan picks up on Snyder's use of the word "victory", stressing that the goal must be to win the war. Snyder argues that whilst wars are not always won, you will never win if victory is not the ultimate aim. Snyder is optimistic that victory can be achieved. He reiterates that the goal for Europe should be to support Ukraine and that the West must strive for victory.
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Anne Applebaum: "It's incorrect right now to think of what we're doing now is fighting a Cold War"
31:17-34:26⏩
Jonathan introduces Anne Applebaum - an author and journalist, highlighting her book Twilight of Democracy as a "must read". Jonathan agrees with Applebaum that we are not fighting a new Cold War and that it's a mistake to view the current situation in those terms as the opposing nations are not a homogenous bloc with shared ideology, but rather a group of autocracies that are united in their dislike of liberal democracies and the rule of law. The only thing they have in common is their shared dislike of the values upheld by those in the room (at the Munich Security Conference).
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Anne Applebaum: "We need to be thinking in the same way... This war is over when Russia leaves"
34:26-36:03⏩
Applebaum argues that the West needs to be more creative in how it tackles Russia and that the conflict needs to be fought on multiple fronts (cyber, information, sanctions). Whilst sanctions have been imposed, there has been little effort to enforce them. She observes that the West is still not fully committed to the conflict, citing the example of a small team at the US Treasury being responsible for sanctions policy - a fraction of the personnel that would be involved if the US was directly involved in the war.
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Hillary Clinton: "Europe should do what the prime ministers have said they intend to do, regardless of what happens from the US"
36:03-40:48⏩
Jonathan believes that whilst Europe is reliant on the US, the current impasse in Congress has forced European nations to take more responsibility for their own security. Whilst he believes that more support is needed from the US, he praises Clinton's assessment that Europe must step up. Clinton argues that it's in everyone's best interest for Europe to increase its defence spending and cooperation in order to counter Russia. Jonathan takes the opportunity to contrast Clinton's speech with those given by Donald Trump which he views as vacuous. He believes that Clinton's analysis is far more insightful and a better example of statesmanship than Trump has ever produced. Clinton believes that whilst a US aid package for Ukraine will probably not be passed until March, there is still a strong commitment amongst Democrats and some Republicans to provide support.
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Hillary Clinton: "We need to be looking at the battle space the cyber space and the head space"
40:48-47:12⏩
Jonathan agrees with Clinton that the West needs to adopt a three-pronged approach focussing on the "battle space, cyber space and head space". Clinton acknowledges that whilst the threat to Ukraine is a threat to Europe and the transatlantic alliance as a whole, it is also a recognition that European nations must do more to defend themselves. Jonathan agrees with Mette Frederiksen that the West needs to significantly increase the speed and scale of military aid being sent to Ukraine, identifying new production capacity and assisting Ukraine in increasing their own domestic capacity. He strongly agrees with Clinton that the West needs to "get on and give them some freaking missiles" and that there should be no more hesitancy. Jonathan believes that Clinton's comments about cyberwarfare are highly significant. Whilst he acknowledges that Ukraine has shown great ingenuity in this sphere, they need more support and that more attention needs to be paid to countering Russian propaganda and disinformation. He is highly critical of the West's lack of action in this regard and the fact that Russia is winning the information war. The West should establish its own "troll farms" to counter this. Clinton agrees with Anne Applebaum that the West needs to be more creative in how it counters Russian disinformation. She uses the example of Bulgaria where pro-Russian messaging is making it difficult for the Bulgarian government to convince the public to offer more support for Ukraine. Russia is winning the information war in Africa, Asia and Latin America as the message is going unchallenged. An analysis of content on TikTok reveals that there is 50:1 pro-Russia versus pro-Ukraine content on the platform - a statistic that horrifies Jonathan.
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Hillary Clinton: "Russia has been a master of active measures for a very long time"
47:12-48:45⏩
Jonathan praises the insights from everyone at the Munich Security Conference, and singles out Clinton once again for praise, believing that her analysis of Russia's use of active measures has been particularly insightful and that their propaganda has been extremely effective, citing the example of the DNC leaks that were deployed against her during the 2016 election. Clinton believes that European leaders have stepped up and that eventually the US House of Representatives will follow suit, but warns that there is a long struggle ahead. Jonathan agrees with Clinton's analysis of Trump - he means what he says. Clinton believes that Trump will do everything in his power to become an authoritarian leader if given the chance and will pull the US out of NATO, not formally, but by refusing to fund US obligations.
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Wrap up
48:45-endJonathan was so impressed by the speeches at the Munich Security Conference that he ends the video there, promising to cover Military Aid and other geopolitical news in future videos. He acknowledges that some viewers might disagree with his praise for Hillary Clinton but encourages them to focus on the substance of what she says rather than the messenger. Jonathan is critical of commenters who resort to personal insults rather than debating the substance of the arguments being put forward.
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