Ukraine War Update BUMPER NEWS: Geopolitical News - Trump's Call & Post, US Messaging

Hello Team

🎦 00:00-00:44⏩
Jonathan M.S. Pearce welcomes viewers to the second part of the Ukraine War News Update for 5th June 2025, focusing on geopolitics. He mentions a prior long video on hits and losses. Due to the extensive amount of military aid information, he plans to cover it in a live stream, as it's easier to convey torrents of information that way and people are unlikely to watch an hour-long military aid video.

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US Position on Russia in NATO Communique

🎦 00:46-04:35⏩
NATO defence ministers are meeting in Brussels to discuss raising spending targets, potentially up to 5% of GDP, with 3.5% already being considered. However, a Euroactive article highlights a significant issue: the US is refusing to allow NATO statements to explicitly label Russia's war as illegal or Russia as the aggressor. European allies want the summit declaration to clearly state the Russian threat as the reason for increased defence spending. Jonathan finds this US position "ridiculous" and "insanity," arguing that NATO exists precisely because of the threat of Russia. He stresses that denying Russia as a threat, especially when increasing defence expenditure, is "burying your head in the sand" and strategically irrational, particularly given North Korea's continued support for Russia.

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Russia's Axis of Evil Allies: North Korea, China, Iran

🎦 04:35-08:04⏩
North Korea has reaffirmed its support for Russia, with Foreign Minister Sergey Shoigu meeting with Kim Jong-un. David Kirichenko warns the "axis of evil" (Russia, North Korea, China, Iran) is deepening technical cooperation, which should concern Western lawmakers. Jonathan stresses that NATO must be more concerned but the US prevents written acknowledgement of Russia as an aggressor. Further, Chinese and Iranian engineers are collaborating with Russians on drone technologies that could threaten the West. President Zelensky confirmed China has stopped drone sales to Ukraine while still supplying Russia, with Chinese representatives present on Russian production lines. Ukraine's top drone expert, Maria Belinska, warns Russia, backed by China and Iran, could soon launch 1,000 Shahed-type drones daily (current record 472). US official Kurt Campbell states China provides "component pieces of a very substantial effort to sustain and expand Russia's war machine," including electronics, machine tools, and missile materials. Chinese officers are even touring Russian front lines, using Ukraine as a testing ground for future battlefield tech against the US. Senator Lindsey Graham is quoted saying, "Without China's support, Putin's war machine comes to a halt." Jonathan highlights the contradiction in US policy: claiming China is the enemy while China actively aids Russia, and Trump seeking help from Russia on Iran despite Russia and Iran being allies. He concludes that helping Ukraine against Russia is the best way to deter China, given China's learning and assistance to Russia in this war.

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US Contradictory Positioning & Drone Warfare Evolution

🎦 08:00-10:48⏩
Jonathan reiterates the US's contradictory stance: declaring China an adversary while China assists Russia, and then allowing China to gain military insights from the war in Ukraine. He questions the lack of strategic rationality in this approach, suggesting it undermines any competitive advantage the US seeks over China, Iran, North Korea, and Russia. The discussion then shifts to drone warfare, noting Ukraine's pioneering role but also the war's evolution. Russia leads in fibre optic drone production, while Ukraine's drone efforts are constrained by crowdfunding and even suffer from defects in Chinese-supplied components (some possibly purposeful sabotage). Russian missiles, like the Iskander, now employ decoys and evasive manoeuvres to fool air defence systems like Patriot. Retired Australian General Mick Ryan comments that Russia has "learned to learn better and faster" throughout the war, with its collaboration with China, Iran, and North Korea accelerating this learning curve. Maria Belinska warns that "temporary fixes will eventually fail," and without a leap in science, Ukraine risks losing its technological edge, potentially leading to morale collapse. The war in Ukraine is becoming a training ground for Western adversaries, where technology and tactics developed could one day be used against the US.

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Pope's Call with Putin

🎦 10:49-11:05⏩
For the first time, Pope Francis (identified as Pope Leo XIV in the transcript, likely a transcription error) spoke by phone with Putin. The Pontiff urged Russia to take steps towards peace, emphasising the importance of dialogue to resolve the conflict. Their discussion covered the humanitarian situation, POW exchanges, and the need for aid.

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Russia's Unchanged Goal of Ukraine's Destruction & Putin's Rejection of Peace Talks

🎦 11:05-14:24⏩
Despite ongoing peace talks, Russia's objective of Ukraine's "complete destruction remains unchanged," according to the Institute for the Study of War (ISW). Deputy Security Council Chairman Dmitry Medvedev explicitly stated that Istanbul talks must result in Russia's swift victory and the "complete destruction of the Ukrainian government," rejecting any compromised peace terms. Jonathan questions why the US is not triggering sanctions given Russia's overt maximalist intentions and unrealistic demands. On June 4th, Putin accused Ukraine of being a "terrorist regime" targeting civilians and rejected the possibility of talks, claiming Ukraine is losing the war. An analyst highlights Putin's rationalisation for continuing the war, blaming Ukraine, and conveniently ignoring that his "three-day operation" is now nearly 1,200 days old, with Russia holding less territory than at the start and resorting to supplying troops with donkeys. Jonathan notes that every Ukrainian drone attack on a military target exposes Russian weakness, and every Ukrainian civilian killed by Russia hardens Ukraine's resolve, ensuring Russia can "never, ever win." He stresses Putin's failure to grasp this correlation is his greatest strategic blunder. Despite this, Russian state media continues to demand victory and the crushing of Ukraine. Jonathan questions why the US is not imposing sanctions or secondary sanctions.

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Zelensky's Response to Russia's Ultimatum & CSTO

🎦 14:24-15:18⏩
Zelensky responded to Russia's ultimatum to disband Ukrainian private military formations (which do not exist) by sarcastically stating he might consider creating them. He also counter-proposed that if Russia wishes to exit certain alliances due to Ukraine's aspirations to join NATO or the EU, then Moscow should leave the Collective Security Treaty Organisation (CSTO), its regional equivalent to NATO.

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Trump's Hostility Towards Zelensky & Deference to Putin

🎦 15:19-19:26⏩
The New York Times reports that while Trump is exasperated with both Putin and Zelensky, he holds a "special hostility" towards Zelensky. Trump allegedly told aides that Zelensky is a "bad guy" who will "lead the world to the brink of a nuclear war." Jonathan finds this outrageous, pointing out that Trump affords no responsibility to Putin for starting the war, instead blaming Zelensky for defending his country. Jonathan connects Trump's animosity towards Zelensky to the prior impeachment attempt, stemming from Trump's alleged blackmail of Zelensky for personal gain by withholding military aid. Trump has talked about cutting off weapon flow to Ukraine and has been consistently more deferential to Putin, the aggressor, expressing only "disappointment" towards him. Despite previously promising a quick end to the war due to his "very, very good relationship" with Putin, Trump has held off on imposing more sanctions against Russia and has now formally asked for a bipartisan sanctions bill to be suspended. Jonathan concludes that Trump's stance is "utterly outrageous."

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Senator Lindsey Graham's Sanctions Bill Against Russia

🎦 19:35-21:13⏩
Senator Lindsey Graham has a bipartisan sanctions bill ready, with 82 co-sponsors across the Senate, and it is expected to pass the House. However, Trump is holding it back and has formally requested it be paused. Jonathan plays a clip of Graham stating that Putin will not stop in Ukraine unless costs are higher and warns of further aggression into Moldova, Georgia, and even Poland if Putin is not stopped. Graham believes it is "one man's war" – Putin's – and recently called for "bone-crushing sanctions" on Russia, including 500% tariffs on nations buying Russian oil and gas if Putin refuses serious peace negotiations.

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Trump's Call with Putin & Controversial Truth Social Post

🎦 21:15-29:30⏩
Jonathan discusses Trump's Truth Social post detailing a 1 hour 15 minute phone call with Putin. Trump mentioned discussing "the attack on Russia's docked airplanes by Ukraine and also various other attacks that have been taking place by both sides." Jonathan highlights the unusual phrase "docked airplanes," suggesting it might be a backward translation from Russian, implying the statement originated from a Russian source. He also notes the post's unusual writing style – well-written, well-punctuated, and lacking Trump's characteristic excessive capitalisation and exclamation marks – suggesting it was written by his communications team. The post was initially taken down and then reposted unchanged, adding to the strangeness. Trump relayed that Putin "did say, and very strongly, that he will have to respond to the recent attack on the airfields." Mustafa Inaim's commentary interprets Trump's announcement as an "implicit advocacy of a very strong response from Russia," effectively giving Russia a "green light for escalation" and sacrificing Ukraine's right to self-defence. Inaim warns that when threats are voiced not by the aggressor, but by the victim's ally, it "becomes a bargaining chip and the enemy's retaliation a pre-approved norm." Jonathan agrees this analysis is "really, really incisive." Trump's post also stated a discussion on Iran and its nuclear weapons decision. Trump claimed he and Putin "were in agreement" that Iran "cannot have a nuclear weapon," and that Putin "suggested that we will participate in the discussions with Iran, and that he could perhaps be helpful in getting this brought to a rapid conclusion." Jonathan finds this "credulous" given Russia's alliance with Iran. He concludes that the polite tone of the statement, justifying Russia's response to Ukraine's self-defence and implying Russian assistance with Iran (despite their alliance), is "absolutely insane."

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US Stalls Sanctions Bill & Redirects Anti-Drone Tech from Ukraine

🎦 29:31-31:39⏩
Following his call with Putin, Trump went to the Senate and demanded they stall the bipartisan sanctions bill, which aimed to impose massive tariffs on Russian exports and secondary sanctions on nations importing Russian hydrocarbons. Jonathan believes this indicates Trump "acquiesces" to Putin's requests. Additionally, the Wall Street Journal reports that the US is redirecting critical anti-drone technology (proximity fuses for APKWS guidance kits) from Ukraine to US forces in the Middle East, with limited explanation to Congress. Tim White criticises this as despicable, stating Trump "deliberately weakened Ukraine's air defense." Colby Babar adds that the Pentagon claims the tech is needed in the Middle East. Jonathan and others express dismay at the US administration's actions, with Philip O'Brien stating, "America is in bed with Russia" and should "hang their heads in shame" for Trump taking the side of "war criminal Putin."

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Zelensky's Insights on US Narrative Shift, Negotiations & Russian Losses

🎦 31:44-34:05⏩
Zelensky's recent speeches, summarised by Timothy Milovanov, indicate that Ukrainian operations inside Russia have "helped change the narrative in the US," shifting from claims of Ukraine losing or having no cards. The political mood in Washington has "clearly shifted." Key points from recent Ukraine-US talks (including Yermak's visit to the US) include:

• Advancing a Mineral Deal.
• A Defence Agreement on US weapons aid.
• Sanctions against Russia (though this is now on hold due to Trump).

Zelensky stated Ukraine proposed a ceasefire to Russia before the leaders' meeting, ready to meet any day, with location flexible (Istanbul, Vatican, Switzerland). He confirmed that the recent drone operation would not have happened if a ceasefire was in place. His sanctions advisor, Vlasiuk, is briefing US senators on effective sanctions. An "important channel" has been created with Senator Lindsey Graham, Ursula von der Leyen, and other European leaders to coordinate a US-EU sanctions package. Regarding prisoner exchanges, Russia said it could hand over 500 Ukrainian servicemen this weekend from a larger agreed group. Zelensky confirmed Ukraine is doing "everything to stop Russia," including its aviation and military potential. He stated Ukraine has destroyed 41 Russian aircraft, half of which cannot be restored, and some will take years to repair. He also noted that Russia's "ultimatum" memo for the Istanbul meeting was not submitted in advance because it was not "doable" and "neither the Ukrainian side nor anyone else takes it seriously."

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Trump as Putin's Press Secretary & Nikki Haley's Criticism

🎦 34:05-35:29⏩
Jonathan reiterates his dismay, calling Trump's Truth Social post a case of the US President "serving as Russia's press secretary." Nikki Haley, who ran against Trump for the Republican nomination, strongly criticised Trump's suggestion of Russia mediating the Iran nuclear deal, stating it's "ludicrous" and a "backhanded slap to all of our allies" given Russia and Iran's partnership in supplying drones and missiles for the war in Ukraine. Jonathan questions why other Republicans are not speaking out against this "bizarre" situation in the American government.

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UK House of Commons Debate on "Proxy War" Narrative

🎦 35:30-40:05⏩
Jonathan briefly shifts to the UK House of Commons, where Prime Minister Rishi Sunak (implied) confronts the leader of the opposition, Keir Starmer. Starmer reads out a Sky News quote from the opposition leader (Kemi Badenoch, implied transcription error as Kenny Badnock) suggesting that Israel is fighting a proxy war for the UK, "just like Ukraine is on behalf of Western Europe against Russia." Jonathan points out this aligns with narratives from figures like Keith Kellogg and elements within the American government that blame NATO and allies for the war. Jonathan clarifies his own distinction of "proxy war": he has written about Ukraine being involved in a proxy war, but not in the pejorative sense of being cajoled into fighting. Instead, he defines it as the West doing "everything we can to support Ukraine" short of direct troop involvement (providing money, tech, intelligence, cyber, informational support, military and budgetary aid) because Ukraine is "fighting for our freedom." He praises Keir Starmer for publicly challenging this narrative in the House of Commons, contrasting it with the silence often seen on Fox News when similar sentiments are expressed. Jonathan finds it "frustrating" that some UK politicians are starting to adopt the US position of not wanting to call Russia the aggressor.

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Elon Musk's Rift with Trump & Criticism of US Economic Policies

🎦 40:05-46:56⏩
Jonathan expands on the growing public "divorce" between Trump and Elon Musk. Musk is "doubling down" and going hard against Trump's "big, beautiful bill" (budget reconciliation bill) and the new 50% tariffs on steel and aluminium, which are "hammering Canada" and will impact the UK and Europe, and even hurt US industries by causing inflation. Musk is "dead against" the tariffs and the "big beautiful bill" because it will increase the US debt ceiling by trillions. Jonathan notes the varying estimations of the debt increase, with Musk citing $2.5 trillion. Musk is angered because his own efforts to cut costs (e.g., at Doge, likely Twitter/X) were heavily criticised as "a drop in the ocean" and led to his unpopularity and Tesla's income loss. Musk is now publicly urging people to "call your senator, call your congressman," stating, "Bankrupting America is not OK. Kill the bill." Jonathan sees this as Musk "officially" pitting his platform against the White House, suggesting potential "nasty" fallout and a possible move by Democrats to bring Musk back into their fold, given his past support for electric vehicles, which are targeted in the bill. Jonathan then plays a powerful clip of Scott Galloway criticising Elon Musk for his "depravity," including alleged Nazi salutes, neglect of his child, and drug addiction, arguing that innovation and wealth should not excuse such behaviour. Galloway states Musk is "rabidly addicted to drugs" and uses his immense power to influence politics, leading to "unnecessary death, disease, and disability of the world's most vulnerable." He stresses that this is not what it means to be an innovator, an American, or a man. Jonathan is deeply moved by Galloway's comments.

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Canada's Retaliation to US Tariffs & US Internal Chaos

🎦 46:59-49:48⏩
The discussion concludes with the economic fallout of Trump's tariffs. Ontario Premier Doug Ford has announced a $30 billion move to "onshore all US imports," effectively "slamming the door on American metal" in direct response to Trump's decision to double US tariffs on Canadian steel and aluminium. This is described as a "seismic shift" as Canada is the US's number one supplier. Ford called it an "economic war," which will "gut American exports," disrupt supply chains, "jack up prices for US consumers," and risk billions in new costs. The move is seen as Trump "kneecapping his own damn economy, alienated our closest ally, and handed China more leverage." Jonathan expresses concern that at a time when the US needs to focus on global security and geopolitical strategy (Iran, China, Russia), it is consumed by internal chaos due to tariffs, the "big, beautiful bill," and other domestic issues. He believes the US is in a "precarious place" and expects more political fallout, referencing a recent special election that showed a "massive shift to the Democrats."

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Wrap up

🎦 49:48-49:50⏩
Jonathan bids farewell to the team.

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