Ukraine War Update NEWS: Pt 1 - Overnight & Other News
Table of Contents 📖
"These guys are just causing problems all over the shop. Terrible."
Hello Team
🎦 00:00-00:34⏩
Jonathan welcomes viewers to another ATP Geopolitics Ukraine War News Update, the first for the 21st of November 2024 (excluding the breaking news update about ICBMs). He mentions the rare snowfall on the south coast of UK.
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🪦 DISCLAIMER FOR GENERAL STAFF LOSSES DATA
- These are real people with real lives and real families who love them. Don’t let the numbers sap your humanity.
- These numbers probably aren’t accurate but they’re the best we have and we don’t need them to be accurate to be indicative of patterns of activity.
- All losses are estimates. Losses cannot be counted with accuracy because of the conditions on the ground.
- Both sides would see it to be of their advantage to minimize their own losses maximize the other side’s losses.
- Neither side releases their losses but we have enough transparency from the Ukrainian side to have confidence in they are indicative.
- Personnel losses are hard to count. If a soldier gets injured, heals up, and returns to the front line only to get injured again, is that one loss or two? Also, how to deal with losses from PMC’s or soldiers fighting with RF from occupied territories?
- Equipment losses are hard to count. If an AA complex involves several parts and one part gets disabled, is that a loss, or a fraction of a loss? If a tank gets disabled, repaired, back into the fight, then disabled again, is that one lost tank or two?
- All recorded losses are vulnerable to multiple reporting. We have already seen numerous cases of multiple drones in the air reporting the same loss from different angles as multiple engagements.
- Losses are not always reported on the same day they occurred. It is frequent that drone losses are reported at least 24 hours after other terrestrial equipment losses. Certain losses may not be reported for days or weeks for military intelligence reasons.
Ukraine General Staff Report: Russian losses
🎦 00:34-01:30⏩
Jonathan reviews the Ukrainian General Staff's figures for estimated Russian losses from the previous day:
- Personnel: 1,510 (slightly less than previous days but still very high)
- Tanks: 8 (average)
- Troop-carrying AFVs: 24 (above average)
- Artillery Systems: 50 (very high)
- MLRS: 1
- Anti-aircraft systems: 2
- Vehicles and fuel tanks: 97 (extremely high)
Jonathan notes that the high losses in vehicles and fuel tanks are likely because the Russians are heavily reliant on them for attacks. He adds that personnel losses include killed, wounded, captured, and deserted soldiers.
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Kursk Region: Ukrainian POWs and Russian Losses
🎦 01:30-03:45⏩
Jonathan cites sources indicating:
- Ukrainian 80th Brigade paratroopers captured 26 Russian POWs in the Kursk zone.
- A Russian source claims 20+ fighters from the 26th Tank Regiment and 11th Air Assault Brigade were captured near Martانيفka, mostly former prisoners on their first assault.
- 8 armoured vehicles were also lost due to poor reconnaissance and planning by Russian commanders.
- Ukrainian 95th Brigade paratroopers defeated a Russian detachment of 14 marines from the 810th Assault Brigade (considered a 'crack unit' but suffering heavy attrition).
Jonathan highlights the horrendous attrition rate experienced by Russians in the Kursk region despite their slow territorial gains.
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Prokhorovka: Russian T90-M destroyed
🎦 03:45-04:01⏩
Jonathan mentions footage showing a destroyed Russian T-90M tank (Russia's best) in the Prokhorovka direction.
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Belgorod: Russian armoured vehicle collides with civilian car
🎦 04:01-04:14⏩
Jonathan discusses an incident in Belgorod, Russia, where a Russian armoured vehicle collided with a civilian car. He notes the authorities tried to suppress the news.
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Missile Strikes: Overnight update and discussion on de-escalation
🎦 04:14-05:23⏩
Jonathan reports on overnight missile strikes:
- Ukrainian Air Force shot down 6 out of 7 Kh-101 cruise missiles.
- A Kinzhal aero-ballistic missile was launched, but no significant damage reported.
- No Shahed drone attacks occurred, a positive sign for Ukraine.
Jonathan emphasises that de-escalation requires the aggressor (Russia) to reduce attacks, not the victim (Ukraine) to reduce defence. He asserts that providing Ukraine with weapons like ATACMS and Storm Shadows is not escalatory given Russia's ongoing aggression.
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Intercontinental Ballistic Missile (ICBM) Launch: Analysis and Implications
🎦 05:23-10:44⏩
Jonathan discusses the alleged ICBM launch by Russia:
- Ukrainian Air Force claims an ICBM was launched from the Astrakhan region, possibly an RS-26 Rubezh.
- US and Russia have an agreement to notify each other of ICBM launches, raising questions about whether the US was notified.
- A Western official contradicted Ukraine's claim, stating it was a ballistic missile, but not an ICBM.
- The missile might be an IRBM (Intermediate-Range Ballistic Missile) instead, potentially a Kinzhal or similar.
- Jonathan acknowledges uncertainty surrounding the type of missile but emphasises the significance of its potential to carry a nuclear warhead, making it a form of nuclear sabre-rattling by Russia.
- He analyses various expert opinions, noting some believe the missile may not have carried actual warheads due to technical limitations and the high re-entry speed of ICBMs.
Dnipro: ICBM strike damage and Russian targeting
🎦 10:44-11:42⏩
Jonathan discusses the damage caused by the ICBM (or IRBM) strike:
- Initial reports suggested the damage in Dnipro was not extensive, indicating the missile may not have had warheads.
- A rehabilitation centre for people with disabilities was among the buildings damaged, a typical tactic employed by the Russians.
US Political Landscape and Potential Russian Motives
🎦 11:42-13:16⏩
Jonathan analyses potential Russian motives behind the ICBM launch, considering the US political landscape:
- He cites a theory that Russia aims to escalate tensions with the US, creating a perceived crisis for the incoming Trump administration to "resolve."
- This tactic, reminiscent of the Cuban Missile Crisis, could play into Trump's narrative as a "saviour" and deflect blame from Russia onto Ukraine and the Biden administration.
- Jonathan expresses concern over the possibility of the GOP echoing Russian propaganda and downplaying the severity of Russia's actions.
Astrakhan Region: Ukrainian drone activity and Russian responses
🎦 13:16-14:19⏩
Jonathan reports on Ukrainian drone activity following the ICBM launch:
- Explosions occurred in Akhtubinsk, Astrakhan region, following a suspected Ukrainian drone attack, potentially targeting the launch site.
- Drones were spotted over the 929th State Flight Test Centre in Akhtubinsk, a crucial strategic target for Ukraine, responsible for testing aircraft, drones, and weapon systems.
Jonathan speculates that the drone activity is a direct response to the ICBM launch.
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Novgorod Oblast: Analysis of ATACMS strike on ammo depot
🎦 14:19-15:54⏩
Jonathan revisits the recent Ukrainian ATACMS strike on a Russian ammo depot:
- The target was the 13th Arsenal GRAU near Kotovo, Novgorod Oblast, located 500 km from Ukraine.
- Jonathan highlights analysis from Daniela, who classified the depot as a high-value Class 3 facility that had been recently renovated and reinforced.
- Despite the reinforcements, the depot still relied on some open-air stockpiles due to logistical reasons and space constraints.
- The success of previous Ukrainian attacks on ammo depots, impacting Russian frontline ammunition supplies, likely motivated the ATACMS strike.
Nuclear Threat: Russian strikes on Ukrainian power grid
🎦 15:54-16:29⏩
Jonathan discusses the ongoing threat posed by Russian strikes on Ukrainian infrastructure:
- Attacks on power substations endanger cooling systems at Ukrainian nuclear power plants, risking a radiological disaster.
Jonathan suggests Russia may be using this tactic to inflict damage on nuclear facilities without directly targeting them, maintaining plausible deniability.
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Krasnodar: Russia builds aircraft shelters at Krymsk Air Base
🎦 16:29-17:56⏩
Jonathan reports on Russia's construction of aircraft shelters:
- Russia is building aircraft shelters at Krymsk Air Base in Krasnodar, home to the 3rd Guards Mixed Aviation Regiment and the 4th Air and Air Defence Army.
- The shelters aim to protect Russian aircraft, including Su-27SM-3s and Su-30M2 fighter jets, from potential Ukrainian attacks, particularly from cluster munitions.
Jonathan notes that this measure, deemed long overdue by some Russian milbloggers, highlights the increased threat posed by Ukraine's long-range strike capabilities.
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Baltic Sea: Undersea cable damage and hybrid warfare
🎦 17:56-18:23⏩
Jonathan shifts focus to the Baltic Sea:
- He mentions the presence of the Swedish Navy in the Baltic Sea, where several undersea cables have been damaged.
- A Swedish Navy press chief, Jimmy Adamson, suggests the cable damage has "all the signs of hybrid warfare."
Global Instability and the Rise of Russia
🎦 18:23-19:00⏩
Jonathan reflects on the global instability:
- From the war in Ukraine to hybrid warfare in Europe and the US, he expresses concern over Russia's role in exacerbating conflicts worldwide.
- Jonathan is bewildered by the support Russia still receives from some nations despite their actions.
Donetsk & Prokrosk: Russian executions of Ukrainian POWs
🎦 19:00-19:51⏩
Jonathan condemns recent Russian atrocities:
- He reports on the execution of at least eight Ukrainian POWs (potentially nine) in an undisclosed location.
- In another incident near Donetsk, two Ukrainian soldiers were stripped naked and shot dead.
- Prosecutors are investigating the alleged murder of three more wounded Ukrainian soldiers by Russian forces.
Jonathan denounces these acts as morally monstrous, highlighting the brutality of the Russian forces.
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Crimea: Zelensky rules out military liberation
🎦 19:51-20:23⏩
Jonathan discusses Zelensky's statement regarding Crimea:
- Zelensky states that Ukraine will pursue the diplomatic liberation of Crimea, refusing to acknowledge the occupied territories as Russian.
- Significantly, he rules out the possibility of a military liberation, stating Ukraine cannot afford to lose tens of thousands of its people in such an effort.
Jonathan considers this a significant admission, prompting viewer discussion on its implications.
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US-Russia Tensions: Russian spokeswoman targets US missile defence base
🎦 20:23-21:30⏩
Jonathan addresses rising US-Russia tensions:
- He mentions Russian spokeswoman Maria Zakharova's statement that the US missile defence base in Poland has long been a priority target for destruction by Russian troops.
- Jonathan finds this statement, made in the context of the ICBM incident and the incoming Trump administration, to be concerning, suggesting potential escalation under the new US administration.
Ukraine and Russia: Wartime economies and their impact
🎦 21:30-29:42⏩
Jonathan delves into the economic impact of the war:
- He cites Le Monde's report that Ukraine's defence spending has reached 35% of its GDP, comparable to France's spending during World War I.
- Despite this, Ukrainian civil services continue to operate normally thanks to financial assistance from the EU, covering half of the national budget.
- In contrast, Russia's war spending is estimated at 8% of its GDP.
- Jonathan argues that Ukraine, despite being fully invaded, is functioning better than Russia, whose economy is struggling under sanctions, soaring interest rates (21%), and dependence on China.
- He examines various economic indicators, including:
- Russia's struggle to pay its suppliers, with delays of 6-9 months.
- Soaring inflation (over 8%) forcing the central bank to raise interest rates.
- The ruble's devaluation (over 101 rubles to the dollar).
- Price hikes on essential goods, such as a 73% increase in potato prices.
- Chinese banks tightening checks on payments from Russia, fearing secondary sanctions.
- Jonathan highlights the effectiveness of the sanctions in crippling the Russian economy and believes that its collapse could lead to regime change, potentially paving the way for Ukraine to regain its 1991 borders.
Russia: Airlines ground Airbus aircraft due to sanctions
🎦 29:42-30:08⏩
Jonathan provides an example of the sanctions' impact on Russian industries:
- Russian airlines have grounded 34 Airbus A320 and A321neo aircraft (half of their fleet) due to maintenance issues caused by sanctions and market shortages.
- The inability to repair or import necessary parts for these advanced engines has forced their grounding.
Russia: Chinese banks restrict payments, impacting Russian businesses
🎦 30:08-31:11⏩
Jonathan provides further evidence of the sanctions' impact:
- Chinese banks have tightened checks on payments from the UAE, India, and Hong Kong to Russia, fearing secondary sanctions.
- These restrictions, implemented after the EU's 12th package of sanctions, have created significant obstacles for Russian businesses.
Economic Warfare: Ukraine's path to victory and potential impact of the US election
🎦 31:11-32:03⏩
Jonathan emphasises the importance of economic warfare:
- He believes Ukraine's best chance of victory hinges on winning the economic war, which will ultimately lead to the collapse of the Putin regime.
- He expresses concern that if the incoming Trump administration lifts sanctions, it would undermine Ukraine's efforts and potentially save the collapsing Russian economy.
- Jonathan is adamant that Russia is on the verge of economic collapse and lifting sanctions would be a grave mistake.
Wrap up
🎦 32:03-32:09⏩
Jonathan thanks his viewers for watching and expresses gratitude for their support.
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