Ukraine War Update NEWS: Pt 1 - Overnight & Other News
Table of Contents 📖
"Needless to say, it's been a miserable two days for the occupiers in Crimea. Tough luck."
Hello Team
🎦 00:00-00:49⏩
Jonathan marks Vyshyvanka Day, a Ukrainian holiday, while welcoming viewers to another ATP Geopolitics update on the war in Ukraine.
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🪦 DISCLAIMER FOR GENERAL STAFF LOSSES DATA
- These are real people with real lives and real families who love them. Don’t let the numbers sap your humanity.
- These numbers probably aren’t accurate but they’re the best we have and we don’t need them to be accurate to be indicative of patterns of activity.
- All losses are estimates. Losses cannot be counted with accuracy because of the conditions on the ground.
- Both sides would see it to be of their advantage to minimize their own losses maximize the other side’s losses.
- Neither side releases their losses but we have enough transparency from the Ukrainian side to have confidence in they are indicative.
- Personnel losses are hard to count. If a soldier gets injured, heals up, and returns to the front line only to get injured again, is that one loss or two? Also, how to deal with losses from PMC’s or soldiers fighting with RF from occupied territories?
- Equipment losses are hard to count. If an AA complex involves several parts and one part gets disabled, is that a loss, or a fraction of a loss? If a tank gets disabled, repaired, back into the fight, then disabled again, is that one lost tank or two?
- All recorded losses are vulnerable to multiple reporting. We have already seen numerous cases of multiple drones in the air reporting the same loss from different angles as multiple engagements.
- Losses are not always reported on the same day they occurred. It is frequent that drone losses are reported at least 24 hours after other terrestrial equipment losses. Certain losses may not be reported for days or weeks for military intelligence reasons.
Ukrainian General Staff Reports Heavy Russian Losses
🎦 00:49-02:53⏩
Jonathan delves into Ukrainian General Staff figures, highlighting significant Russian losses, including 1,520 personnel, 19 tanks (a potential record), 30 armoured personnel vehicles, and 27 artillery systems. He references data from his Excel spreadsheet and notes that sustaining such losses over a prolonged period will be challenging for Russia.
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Oryx Losses and Sean Pinner’s Insights on Casualty Calculation
🎦 02:53-09:57⏩
Jonathan reviews visually confirmed losses using data from Oryx, acknowledging the meticulous work of Andrew Perpetua who curates the data. He then shifts to discuss insights shared by Sean Pinner (a British Army veteran who fought in Ukraine) on calculating daily casualty figures. Pinner explains the methods used, including intercepted communications, on-the-ground counts, footage analysis, satellite imagery, and social media. Jonathan points out potential inaccuracies in personnel figures due to the complexities of estimating casualties from destroyed buildings. He finds the counts for destroyed or captured equipment to be more reliable.
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Forced Conscription in Krasnodar
🎦 09:57-11:32⏩
Jonathan highlights a report from Russian media source PS01 about 20 conscripts in Krasnodar, Russia, who were forcibly detained despite being deemed unfit for service. He sees this as an indicator of Russia’s desperation for troops.
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Explosions Reported in Crimea, Including Belbek Airbase
🎦 11:32-14:58⏩
Jonathan reports explosions and missile launches in Sevastopol, Simferopol, and Jankoi in occupied Crimea. He connects this to his previous discussion about vulnerabilities in Belbek Airbase’s S-400 air defense system, suggesting Ukraine is exploiting these weaknesses. He references reports of destroyed missile warehouses, naval drone activity, and speculates about Ukraine's potential strategy.
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Russian Military Bloggers Criticise Lack of Infrastructure Protection in Crimea
🎦 14:58-17:26⏩
Jonathan analyses complaints from Russian military bloggers about successful Ukrainian strikes, highlighting their criticism of the lack of protection for military infrastructure in Crimea. He notes concerns about the vulnerability of aircraft, air defence systems, and ammunition storage to attacks, even from basic munitions.
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Reports of Damage at Belbek Airbase, Including Potential Kinzhal Missile Storage
🎦 17:26-19:31⏩
Jonathan cites reports from Ukrainian partisan groups and Russian media sources, detailing damage inflicted on Belbek Airbase. The reports mention destroyed MiG-31 aircraft (capable of carrying Kinzhal hypersonic missiles), S-400 air defence systems, and fuel depots.
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Effectiveness of ATACMs and Potential Impact of F-16s
🎦 19:31-20:11⏩
Jonathan discusses the effectiveness of ATACMs in targeting Russian air defence systems, using the example of the S-400. He expresses optimism about the potential impact of F-16s once they are delivered to Ukraine, especially in the context of weakened Russian air defences.
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Russian Military Blogger’s Assessment of Ukrainian Strikes and Their Impact on Russian Operations
🎦 20:11-22:52⏩
Jonathan examines analysis from a Russian military blogger, “StormZ,” who acknowledges the effectiveness of Ukrainian strikes on Russian aviation infrastructure and the energy sector. The blogger expresses concern that these strikes hamper Russia’s use of glide bombs, which are a significant threat to Ukraine. He admits that Ukraine is successfully targeting airfields and air defence systems, acknowledging the growing risks posed by Ukraine’s long-range weapons. He calls for improved Russian countermeasures to mitigate these losses.
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Arturay’s Analysis of Putin’s Position and the Urgency Facing Russia
🎦 22:52-30:28⏩
Jonathan presents an analysis from a military analyst, Arturay, who argues that Russia is in a more precarious position than it appears. Arturay suggests that Russia’s recent offensive in Kharkiv, the purge within the Russian Ministry of Defence (MOD), and the appointment of economist Yuri Borisov to the MOD all point to a sense of urgency within the Kremlin. Jonathan agrees with this assessment, noting that Russia's limited territorial gains come at a high cost. He believes that Russia’s reliance on conscription, dwindling stockpiles, and ammunition imports from North Korea betray a vulnerability that is masked by Ukraine’s own struggles with ammunition supplies. He further highlights the significance of the MOD purge, which has seen the removal of key figures like Sergei Shoigu, and speculates on the impact of these changes.
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Unfinished Defences in Kharkiv and Ukrainian Counteroffensive Update
🎦 30:28-34:18⏩
Jonathan shares images of seemingly abandoned and unfinished Russian defenses in Kharkiv, questioning the reasons behind this. He then provides a breaking news update from Ukrainian journalist Yuri Butusov, who is embedded with the Ukrainian army. Butusov reports that the Russian offensive in northern Kharkiv has stalled, with Ukrainian forces inflicting heavy losses and retaking the initiative in some areas. Jonathan emphasises Butusov's reputation for reliable reporting.
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Conflicting Claims Over Robotyne and the Impact of Evacuation on Civilians
🎦 34:18-36:03⏩
Jonathan addresses conflicting claims regarding the control of the village of Robotyne in Zaporizhzhia Oblast, noting that Ukrainian and Russian sources provide different accounts. He then transitions to discuss the challenges faced by civilians evacuating from frontline areas, highlighting the emotional and economic toll of leaving behind their homes and livelihoods.
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Emergency Power Outages in Ukraine and Conclusion
🎦 36:03-36:54⏩
Jonathan concludes by mentioning the implementation of emergency power outages across Ukraine due to Russian strikes on energy infrastructure. He expresses concern about the impact on both civilians and the Ukrainian defence industry, particularly the need for a stable power supply to support domestic arms production. He teases an “extra” segment where he’ll elaborate on this topic further. He signs off by asking viewers to like, subscribe, and share the video.
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