Ukraine Conflict: Kursk Front Update
Table of Contents 📖
"They have already achieved a whole bunch of objectives by doing what they've done here in Kursk."
Hello Team
🎦 00:00-00:53⏩
Jonathan welcomes everyone to ATP Geopolitics. This is a Ukraine frontline update, focusing solely on the Kursk incursion using maps from Andrew Perpetua and information from a Nol Reports thread about the Kursk update.
Return to top⤴️
Overview of the Kursk Incursion
🎦 00:53-04:51⏩
Jonathan reviews Andrew Perpetua's maps of the Kursk region from the past 10 days, noting the significant land gain by Russian forces. He observes that the frontline has remained relatively static for over a week, with only marginal Russian advances on the western side. He highlights that despite the Russian gains, Zelensky has stated that everything is going according to Ukraine's plan. Jonathan analyses the situation, emphasizing the importance of understanding Ukraine's objectives. He argues that while retaking territory is the primary goal, Ukraine also aims to minimize its own troop and equipment losses, while maximizing Russian losses. Jonathan posits that ceding territory in exchange for inflicting heavy losses on Russian forces could be a strategic win for Ukraine, particularly if it allows them to recapture more territory elsewhere. He suggests that the Ukrainians may be intentionally allowing the Russians to advance in Kursk to deplete their resources and manpower.
Return to top⤴️
Reported fighting in the North and West of the Incursion
🎦 04:51-05:56⏩
Jonathan examines the latest developments in the Kursk incursion, noting reports of ongoing fighting in several locations. He points out the fluidity of the situation, with claims and counterclaims emerging from both Ukrainian and Russian sources. He highlights reports of Ukrainian forces potentially operating around Vesaloya, Mezhdesh, and possibly Kalinovka and Komotovka in the northwest. Jonathan acknowledges the difficulty of verifying these claims and emphasizes the need for caution in interpreting the available information.
Return to top⤴️
Nol Reports - Kursk and Border Operations Day 38
🎦 05:56-14:34⏩
Jonathan delves into a detailed analysis of a Nol Reports thread covering 38 days of Kursk and border operations. He notes that Russia's counter-offensive in Kursk, launched approximately two weeks prior, appears to have slowed down significantly. Here are some of the key points from the Nol Reports thread:
- Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov's Claim: Lavrov states that Russian forces are successfully pushing Ukrainian troops out of the Kursk region.
- Mapping Updates: Nol Reports confirms that Russia has retaken the settlements of Krasnoktibarsk and Komarovka, but the situation in Snagost remains contested.
- Russian Offensive Towards Ljubimovka: Russian sources claim that Russian forces are storming Ljubimovka, although Nol Reports has not been able to verify this information.
- Ukrainian Counterattacks Near Novyi Put: Russian sources report that Ukrainian forces have been launching counterattacks for two consecutive days near Novyi Put, deploying heavy equipment and engaging in mine clearing operations.
- Ukrainian Engineering Vehicle Activity: Footage has emerged of a Ukrainian engineering vehicle clearing a path through dragon's teeth obstacles west of Novyi Put, suggesting Ukrainian intentions to push across the border.
- Ukrainian Infiltration South of Veselya: Russian sources acknowledge that Ukrainian units have breached the border at Novyi Put and infiltrated the area south of Veselya, with reports of armored vehicles and infantry operating in the area.
- Russian Claims of Ukrainian Concentration Camps: The Russian Foreign Ministry alleges that Ukrainian forces have established facilities resembling concentration camps for civilians in the Kursk region. Nol Reports dismisses this as disinformation and an information attack.
- Confirmation of Ukrainian Presence in Veselya: Roman Alekin, a military volunteer and advisor to the governor of the Kursk region, confirms that Ukrainian forces have entered Veselya.
- Ukrainian Pressure Towards Glushkovko: Alekin reports that Ukrainian forces are actively pressing towards Glushkovko, a strategically important location with a key bridge. Russian sources claim that Ukrainian forces have entered Veselya with tank support and acknowledge that the night will be challenging for their troops in the area.
Jonathan concludes that the situation in the Kursk region remains highly fluid and volatile, with both Ukrainian and Russian forces engaged in intense fighting. He emphasizes the strategic importance of the region and the potential for further escalation.
Return to top⤴️
Analysis of Russian and Ukrainian Objectives and Strategies
🎦 14:34-15:40⏩
Jonathan analyses the contrasting narratives surrounding the Kursk incursion. He highlights a Forbes report stating Putin has ordered his military to expel Ukrainian forces from the region by 1st October 2024. Conversely, Zelensky asserts that the Russian counter-offensive in Kursk is unfolding according to Ukraine's plan. Jonathan reiterates his belief that Ukraine's actions in Kursk, even if they involve territorial losses, serve a larger strategic purpose. He suggests that Ukraine might be aiming to exhaust Russian resources and manpower in the region, potentially as a prelude to negotiations or a larger counteroffensive elsewhere.
Return to top⤴️
HIMARS Strikes and Destruction of Russian Equipment
🎦 15:40-17:55⏩
Jonathan presents footage of Ukrainian HIMARS strikes targeting Russian troop concentrations in the Kursk region. He notes the use of cluster munitions in these strikes and highlights their effectiveness in inflicting casualties. Jonathan points out that these strikes, along with the confirmed destruction of a Russian Zemledeliye mine-laying vehicle, demonstrate Ukraine's ability to degrade Russian military capabilities in the region. He emphasizes the importance of effective reconnaissance and targeting in maximizing the impact of such strikes.
Return to top⤴️
Russian Disinformation and Ukrainian Resolve
🎦 17:55-19:05⏩
Jonathan addresses a claim made by Akhmat commander Apti Alaudinov, who alleges that Ukrainian forces are executing their own soldiers who attempt to surrender. Jonathan dismisses this as "psyops" and "nonsense," characterizing it as part of a broader Russian disinformation campaign. He contrasts this with footage of Ukrainian forces using an engineering vehicle to clear a path through dragon's teeth obstacles, highlighting their determination and resourcefulness in the face of Russian aggression.
Return to top⤴️
Geolocation of Ukrainian Advance and Analysis
🎦 19:05-23:51⏩
Jonathan geolocates the Ukrainian advance near Novyi Put, using footage of the engineering vehicle clearing dragon's teeth obstacles. He notes that the location is consistent with reports of Ukrainian forces operating west of the settlement, indicating a deliberate effort to penetrate Russian defenses. Jonathan speculates on the potential implications of these Ukrainian advances, questioning whether they will maintain pressure in the east or redeploy forces to counter the Russian counteroffensive in the west. Jonathan acknowledges the significant human cost of the conflict but finds the military dynamics in Kursk "fascinating" from an analytical perspective. He concludes by suggesting that Ukraine might be employing a strategy of "border whack-a-mole," launching attacks at multiple points along the border to keep Russian forces off balance.
Return to top⤴️
Wrap up
🎦 23:51-24:26⏩
Jonathan emphasizes that the information presented is based solely on Nol Reports and Andrew Perpetua's mapping, acknowledging the potential for updates and changes in the situation. He encourages viewers to share any additional information or insights they may have in the comments and thanks them for watching.
Return to top⤴️