Ukr War Update NEWS: Pt 1 - Overnight & Other News: Double-Tap Ballistic B*stards
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This summary has been produced automatically by an AI Large Language Model (LLM) without any human intervention. Whilst every effort has been made to prompt the LLM to produce accurate output, there may be inconsistencies, inaccuracies or hallucinations!
Table of Contents 📖
"They are, you know, this is Dnepropetrovsk double tap bastards. Just ballistic bastards. And it is absolutely unconscionable that an ally, six weeks ago a country that was an ally, is now doing things to help this happen in some ways."
Hello Team
🎦 00:00-00:22⏩
- Jonathan welcomes viewers to the Ukraine War News Update for 8th March 2025.
- He is wearing a retro Canadian Rugby Sevens top sent to him by Michael Vujar and thanks Michael.
🪦 DISCLAIMER FOR GENERAL STAFF LOSSES DATA
- These are real people with real lives and real families who love them. Don’t let the numbers sap your humanity.
- These numbers probably aren’t accurate but they’re the best we have and we don’t need them to be accurate to be indicative of patterns of activity.
- All losses are estimates. Losses cannot be counted with accuracy because of the conditions on the ground.
- Both sides would see it to be of their advantage to minimize their own losses maximize the other side’s losses.
- Neither side releases their losses but we have enough transparency from the Ukrainian side to have confidence in they are indicative.
- Personnel losses are hard to count. If a soldier gets injured, heals up, and returns to the front line only to get injured again, is that one loss or two? Also, how to deal with losses from PMC’s or soldiers fighting with RF from occupied territories?
- Equipment losses are hard to count. If an AA complex involves several parts and one part gets disabled, is that a loss, or a fraction of a loss? If a tank gets disabled, repaired, back into the fight, then disabled again, is that one lost tank or two?
- All recorded losses are vulnerable to multiple reporting. We have already seen numerous cases of multiple drones in the air reporting the same loss from different angles as multiple engagements.
- Losses are not always reported on the same day they occurred. It is frequent that drone losses are reported at least 24 hours after other terrestrial equipment losses. Certain losses may not be reported for days or weeks for military intelligence reasons.
Russian Losses Update: Personnel losses at a thousand
🎦 00:22-00:38⏩
- Jonathan reviews the Ukrainian General Staff figures for Russian losses from the previous day, with the usual caveats.
- Personnel losses are at 1,000, which is the lowest for a long time, suggesting a quietening of Russian attacks in many frontline areas.
Kursk Situation: Possible Ukrainian withdrawal amid heavy Russian attacks and intelligence sharing issues
🎦 00:38-01:29⏩
- There is significant activity in Kursk, described as a "nightmare" for Ukrainians.
- It appears Ukraine might be withdrawing from Kursk due to intelligence sharing problems and intense Russian attacks using guided bombs and large troop numbers.
- The aim seems to be for Russia to control Kursk for negotiation purposes.
- In contrast, Ukrainians are pushing back in areas like Chasiv Yar, Toretsk, Kupyansk, and Pokrovsk.
Russian Equipment Losses: Above average artillery losses but below average tank losses
🎦 01:29-02:05⏩
- Russian equipment losses include:
- Below daily average tank losses (4 tanks).
- Below daily average troop carrier losses (12).
- Above daily average artillery system losses (24).
- One multiple launch rocket system.
- Three anti-aircraft warfare systems.
- High vehicle and fuel tank losses (113).
- Three pieces of special equipment.
Increased Russian Aerial Attacks: 148 Drones and 35 Cruise Missiles
🎦 02:05-02:13⏩
- Russia has increased aerial attacks, particularly with missiles.
- Last night was no exception, with significant strikes.
Horrific Double-Tap Strikes: Targeting Emergency Services
🎦 02:13-02:22⏩
- There were horrific strikes, including double-tap strikes seemingly targeting emergency services.
Mixed Bag for Ukraine: Artillery and Anti-Aircraft Systems Losses inflicted
🎦 02:22-02:35⏩
- Overall, it's a mixed situation for Ukraine.
- They are still successfully targeting Russian artillery and anti-aircraft systems.
Chasiv Yar: Russia Bogged Down and Suffering Losses due to Ukrainian Drone Advantage
🎦 02:35-03:20⏩
- War Translated reports that Russian forces are bogged down and suffering serious losses in Chasiv Yar due to Ukraine's drone advantage.
- Ukraine reportedly has a drone advantage exceeding 6 to 1, preventing Russians from operating effectively.
- Armoured vehicle use is very limited, and Russian electronic warfare is ineffective due to Ukrainian adaptation.
Russian Source on Chasiv Yar: Air Dominance and FPV Drones Hinder Progress
🎦 03:20-04:03⏩
- A Russian source confirms the lack of significant changes in Chasiv Yar, citing Ukrainian air dominance as the main reason for their lack of success.
- Ukrainian reconnaissance drones operate 24/7, and any Russian movement is met with FPV drone attacks.
- FPV drones have longer range and strike more frequently than Russian drones.
- Infantry struggles to reach objectives, resulting in casualties and logistical challenges.
- Electronic warfare support is insufficient as Ukrainian drones rapidly change frequencies.
- The Russian source suggests purchasing additional EW modules to cover the full frequency range.
Ukrainian Success in Chasiv Yar: Repelling Russian Assault with Heavy Equipment Losses
🎦 04:03-04:25⏩
- This news from Chasiv Yar is positive for Ukraine.
- Footage shows Russia threw "leftover equipment" into a final push on Chasiv Yar.
- Over 20 Russian units were involved in an assault that was repelled, with 16 vehicles destroyed or damaged.
Further Reports of Russian Defeat in Chasiv Yar: 16 Vehicles Destroyed out of 25
🎦 04:25-04:50⏩
- Reports confirm the incident in the Chasiv Yar direction, with Russian forces attempting to storm the northern district.
- Approximately 25 vehicles were engaged, and 16 were destroyed.
- Infantry scattered, and clearing operations are underway.
Massive Destruction of Russian Equipment in Chasiv Yar
🎦 04:50-05:12⏩
- There is mass destruction of Russian equipment in Chasiv Yar.
- APCs and tanks are being turned into "Mad Max vehicles".
Russian Forces Suffer Bloody Nose in Chasiv Yar: Ukrainian Drone Dominance Halts Attacks
🎦 05:12-05:51⏩
- Videos and imagery show repelled Russian attacks in the Chasiv Yar direction, with Russia suffering heavy losses.
- While Ukraine may not be regaining large territories, they are effectively hammering Russian attacks.
- It's suggested that Russia is throwing in the last of their available mechanized equipment in the area.
Ukraine Substituting Soldiers with Drones: Halting Russian Attacks Except in Kursk
🎦 05:51-06:15⏩
- Ukraine is seemingly substituting soldiers with drones, achieving air and FPV drone dominance.
- This is halting Russian attacks, except where Russia can massively overwhelm Ukraine, such as in Kursk.
Kursk Problems: Possibly Linked to Lack of US Intelligence Sharing
🎦 06:15-06:28⏩
- The trouble in Kursk might be connected to the lack of US intelligence sharing with Ukraine.
- There are claims that the Kursk situation is partly due to the US stopping intelligence sharing.
- This implies the US bears some responsibility for the situation.
Ukrainian FPV Drones Launched from Marine Drones: Attacking Russian Systems in Kherson
🎦 06:28-07:02⏩
- Ukrainian FPV drones are being launched from marine drones (USVs) to attack Russian armoured vehicles and anti-aircraft systems in the Kherson region.
- This is further evidence of Ukrainians adapting USVs as "aircraft carriers".
Ukrainian USVs as FPV Drone Carriers: Extending Attack Range into Crimea
🎦 07:02-07:37⏩
- USVs are piloted to areas like Kherson's southern coast, Skadovsk, Tendriska Spit, and potentially Crimea.
- FPV drones launch from USVs, possibly using them as repeaters, to strike air defence systems within a 20km range from the coast.
- This adaptation is considered very useful for Ukraine.
Euromaidan Press: Ukrainian FPV Drones Strike Russian SAM Systems from USVs
🎦 07:37-08:04⏩
- Euromaidan Press reports that Ukrainian FPV drones launched from USVs struck two Russian SAM systems.
- Specifically, an OSA AKM and Australia 10 short-range air defence systems were hit in occupied Kherson Oblast or Crimea.
- Location is uncertain between Kherson and Crimea.
Ukrainian Intelligence Claims: Two Diesel Trains Destroyed in Russia
🎦 08:18-08:36⏩
- Ukrainian military intelligence claims to have destroyed two diesel trains in Russia.
- Footage shows someone setting fire to a logistics train and fleeing.
Previous Ukrainian Sabotage: Cargo Train Fire in Moscow Region in February
🎦 08:36-09:10⏩
- On February 19th, Ukrainian intelligence also set fire to a cargo train in the Moscow region.
- This type of operation appears to be becoming more frequent for Ukraine.
Fire as a Cheap and Effective Weapon: Sabotage Tactics
🎦 09:10-10:39⏩
- Jonathan argues that fire is a cheap and highly effective method for causing widespread destruction.
- He suggests that setting fires is a more practical and less risky method than using bombs for sabotage.
- He speculates that both Russia and Ukraine might be paying individuals on the dark web to carry out such acts of arson.
- Compared to the cost and complexity of drone attacks (e.g., $150,000 drone, air defence penetration), paying someone $1,000 to set fire to a target is much more cost-effective.
Russian Missile and Drone Attacks Intensify: 145 Shahed Drones Launched
🎦 10:43-11:07⏩
- Russia launched another wide-ranging missile and drone attack overnight.
- 145 Shahed drones were sent into Ukraine.
High Interception Rate of Shahed Drones: 133 out of 145 Taken Out
🎦 11:07-11:18⏩
- Out of 145 Shahed drones, 133 were taken out: 79 by conventional means and 54 suppressed by electronic warfare.
- This leaves 12 drones that got through and were not intercepted, which is a significant number out of 145.
Correlation Between Intel Sharing Suspension and Increased Russian Munition Success
🎦 11:18-11:47⏩
- There is increasing concern about a possible link between reduced intelligence sharing and more successful Russian attacks.
- While some claim the US is still providing defensive intelligence, there's a noticeable correlation between the US seemingly reducing intelligence and more Russian munitions, especially missiles, hitting targets.
- This uptick in successful Russian attacks is observed since the US declared it was "not playing ball".
Russian Missile Types Used: Iskander and KN-23, Cluster Munitions in Zaporizhzhia
🎦 11:47-12:23⏩
- Russia used Iskander missiles, including two possibly North Korean KN-23 missiles.
- One Iskander-K missile was taken out, but two other Iskander missiles were not.
- Cluster munitions were reportedly used by Russia in a residential neighbourhood in Zaporizhzhia, allegedly aimed at killing sleeping families.
- This is described as "genocide".
Odessa Air Defence Weakness: Drones Hitting the City
🎦 12:23-12:40⏩
- Drones have penetrated air defences to hit Odesa again.
- Odesa may be running out of interceptors or have had air defence systems destroyed, as Russia is heavily focusing attacks on the city, sensing a weakness.
- More Russian strikes are occurring every night in Odesa.
Strikes Near Odesa Port: Targeting Energy Infrastructure
🎦 12:40-13:11⏩
- Strikes occurred about 8-10 km north of Odesa and possibly near the port.
- Russians launched another massive attack on Ukraine, targeting residential buildings and, particularly, energy infrastructure.
Widespread Explosions Across Ukraine: Two Nights Ago Attacks
🎦 13:11-13:47⏩
- Explosions were heard in numerous regions including Kharkiv, Ternopil, Odesa, Ivano-Frankivsk, Sumy, Poltava, Vinnytsia, Dnipropetrovsk, Chernihiv, and Khmelnytskyi.
- This information is from two nights ago, not last night, and is being included for completeness from a previous video.
- Strategic bombers, ships carrying Kalibr missiles, ballistic missiles, Kh-59 missiles, and Shahed drones were used in the attacks.
Gas Infrastructure Damage: Ternopil and Poltava Regions Affected
🎦 13:47-14:23⏩
- In Ternopil, gas shutdowns were reported due to a hit on an industrial facility.
- Two out of six missiles hit the gas transportation network in the region.
- Explosions were also heard at infrastructure facilities in Ivano-Frankivsk.
- Domestic gas pipelines were damaged in the Myrhorod district of Poltava.
Civilian Casualties and Infrastructure Damage: Chernihiv and Desna Region
🎦 14:23-14:36⏩
- Two people, including a child, were injured and hospitalised in Chernihiv.
- A production facility was damaged in Chernihiv.
- In the Desna region, fires broke out in private residential houses and critical infrastructure was also damaged.
Ukrainian Gas Production Facilities Shut Down: DTEK Under Pressure
🎦 14:36-15:07⏩
- The attacks two nights ago resulted in the shutdown of Ukrainian DTEK gas production facilities.
- DTEK, a private Ukrainian energy company, has had its capacity severely reduced over the past two years due to ongoing attacks.
Dobropillia Ballistic Missile Strike: Double-Tap Attack Kills 11
🎦 15:07-15:32⏩
- Dobropillia in Donetsk region was hit last night by two ballistic missiles, likely Iskander-M or KN-23.
- When emergency services arrived, a second missile struck, resulting in a double-tap attack.
Dobropillia Casualties and Damage: 11 Dead, 30 Injured
🎦 15:32-15:47⏩
- 11 people are confirmed dead in Dobropillia, with likely more casualties to come.
- 30 more are injured, and 8 buildings were damaged.
- Jonathan describes this as Russian "liberation" which is in reality "terror, plain and simple".
Anger Towards US and Trump Administration: Perceived Shift in Stance
🎦 15:47-16:27⏩
- There is significant anger towards the US, particularly the Trump administration.
- Jonathan references a Bulwark interview with Caelan Robertson, noting the palpable anger in Ukraine towards America for seemingly "changing sides".
- He recommends viewers watch his own previous interview with Caelan Robertson on his channel.
Dobropillia Cluster Munition Attack: Civilian Area Targeted
🎦 16:27-16:39⏩
- Dobropillia, located 30km from the frontline, was hit by Russian cluster munitions, likely Tornado-S.
- Footage shows cluster munitions targeting a civilian city area again.
- Jonathan expresses his horror and disgust at the attack.
Trump's Comments on Russia and Ukraine: Perceived Pro-Russia Stance
🎦 17:05-17:58⏩
- Jonathan discusses Trump's recent comments, noting that while Trump mentioned sanctions on Russia, he immediately followed it by saying Russia is easier to deal with than Ukraine.
- Jonathan interprets this as Trump implying Ukraine is difficult because they are not giving him what he wants, while Russia is.
- He argues that Trump is effectively helping Russia and giving them what they want.
Trump Defends Russian Strikes: "Doing What Anybody Would Do"
🎦 17:58-18:05⏩
- When questioned about Russia's massive strikes, Trump reportedly said "they're doing what anybody would do".
- Jonathan concludes that Trump is "functionally working for the Kremlin" and finds his stance "absolutely despicable".
Double-Tap Ballistic Missile Strike on Dnipro: Targeting Rescuers
🎦 18:05-18:27⏩
- Jonathan reports on last night's double ballistic missile strike on central Dnipro (Dnipropetrovsk).
- After emergency services arrived, Russia launched a second strike specifically targeting the rescuers – a double-tap attack.
- He condemns this as "ballistic bastards" and "unconscionable".
Kharkiv Drone Strike: Civilian Deaths at Meat Processing Plant
🎦 18:54-19:11⏩
- Kharkiv was hit with drone strikes, killing three civilians.
- A Russian drone strike on a meat processing plant in Kharkiv killed three and injured seven.
US Intel Still Flowing for Defensive Purposes: But Impact of Intel Pause Felt
🎦 19:11-20:01⏩
- Shashank Joshi reports that American intelligence on Russian missile attacks is still being provided to Ukraine for defensive purposes.
- However, the intelligence pause does mean Ukraine is fighting back with "one hand tied behind its back", impacting offensive and possibly defensive capabilities.
- There's a clear correlation between increased Russian attacks and the US reducing intelligence sharing.
Institute for the Study of War: Intensified Russian Attacks Since Trump Inauguration
🎦 20:01-20:14⏩
- The Institute for the Study of War (ISW) reports that Russia has intensified attacks with drones and missiles since Trump's inauguration.
- This indicates a clear increase in Russian aggression since Trump took office.
Increased Russian Pressure: Possibly Ahead of Negotiations
🎦 20:14-20:28⏩
- The increased Russian pressure may be aimed at forcing Ukraine into a weaker negotiating position ahead of potential negotiations.
Maxar Technologies Statement: US Government Suspends Ukrainian Access to Satellite Imagery
🎦 20:28-20:40⏩
- Maxar Technologies has issued a statement regarding reports about access rights to their satellite imagery.
- Jonathan is unsure how to interpret the statement.
Maxar Contracts and US Government Program: GEGD Suspension
🎦 20:40-21:14⏩
- Maxar has contracts with the US government and allies to provide satellite imagery.
- One contract is with GEGD (Global Enhanced Geo-Int Delivery Programme), a US government program providing access to commercial satellite imagery collected by the US.
- The US government has temporarily suspended Ukrainian accounts in GEGD.
- Jonathan is unclear if this means the US is no longer buying imagery or if Ukrainian accounts are blocked from access, regardless of who pays.
Condemnation of US Action: Disgusting Impact on Ukraine
🎦 21:14-21:40⏩
- Jonathan finds the situation "absolutely disgusting" regardless of the exact interpretation of Maxar's statement.
- He is deeply concerned about the impact on Ukraine's ability to defend itself and protect civilians.
Maxar's Focus on Contractual Commitments: Jonathan's Outrage
🎦 21:40-22:07⏩
- Maxar states they take contractual commitments seriously and there is no change in support for other customers.
- Jonathan expresses outrage, stating he doesn't care about Maxar's other customers and is concerned only with Ukraine's access to satellite imagery to prevent civilian and soldier deaths and help them win the war.
Trump's Pro-Putin Stance: "What Anybody Would Do" Comment
🎦 22:07-22:38⏩
- Jonathan refers to Trump's comment that Putin launching massive strikes on Ukraine is "what anybody would do".
- He is too angry to play the clip, describing Trump's recent statements, including nonsensical comments about crypto, as shocking and indicative of a pro-Putin stance.
Ukrainian Attacks on Russian Oil Refineries: Leningrad Region Refinery Damaged
🎦 22:42-23:18⏩
- Ukraine has seemingly been active with attacks over the last three nights, but details are scarce.
- Krishnephilgintse oil refinery in the Leningrad region, over 800km from the Ukrainian border, was attacked.
- This is a major refinery, among the top two in Russia, specializing in gasoline, diesel, fuel oil and petroleum products.
- It is unclear how badly it was damaged.
Russian Claims of Minor Damage: Tank Damaged, Drones Shot Down
🎦 23:18-23:34⏩
- Russia claims only a tank was damaged at the Leningrad refinery attack.
- They state air defence shot down two drones, with debris causing minor external damage.
- Jonathan notes this is a typical Russian response, and the truth is uncertain.
Battle in Black Sea: Ukrainian Attacks on Russian Gas Production Facilities
🎦 23:34-24:41⏩
- Fighter Bomber, a pro-Russian source, reports a battle in the Black Sea.
- Ukraine is attacking Russian gas production facilities with BEKs (unmanned sea vehicles).
- These 9-meter BEKs can carry smaller BEKs or torpedoes, MANPADs (like Stingers), machine guns (including a minigun), and have optical guidance with thermal imaging, controlled by Starlink.
- Data from Paul Sweeney consistently shows fires in the Black Sea around gas rigs, confirming ongoing fighting there.
US Intelligence Sharing Restrictions: Defensive Only, Problems in Kursk
🎦 24:41-25:10⏩
- The US shares intelligence with Ukraine for defensive operations but not for attacks on Russian troops, according to CNN.
- This restriction is reportedly causing problems in Kursk.
- The suspension of US intelligence activities has facilitated the Russian offensive in Kursk, weakened Ukraine's position, and led to many Ukrainian soldier deaths, according to Time magazine.
Time Magazine: Trump Administration Intel Pause Killing Ukrainian Soldiers
🎦 25:10-25:30⏩
- Time magazine reports that the Trump administration's decision to pause intelligence sharing is killing Ukrainian soldiers.
- Hundreds of deaths are attributed to the fallout from this intelligence pause.
- Jonathan expresses disgust at the situation.
Kursk Situation Deteriorating: Possible Ukrainian Withdrawal
🎦 25:30-26:05⏩
- Ukraine is considering withdrawing from Kursk amid fears of encirclement.
- Kursk was seen as a key bargaining chip for Ukraine in potential negotiations.
- The US actions are seen as hindering Ukraine's ability to use this bargaining chip, effectively helping Russia.
- Reports indicate 10,000 Ukrainian troops are at risk of encirclement in Kursk.
Deep State Map: Russian Gains in Kursk Region, Possible Ukrainian Withdrawal in Two Weeks
🎦 26:05-26:36⏩
- The situation in the Kursk region has seriously deteriorated for Ukraine.
- Russia has consolidated gains, captured the border area south and west of Sverdlovsk, and moved into Ukraine, capturing Novenka.
- Deep State mapping suggests Ukraine may withdraw troops from the Kursk region in the next two weeks.
Andrew Perpetua Analysis: Rubicon Center Drones Causing Severe Damage in Kursk
🎦 26:36-27:50⏩
- Andrew Perpetua suggests Ukrainian logistics in Kursk have suffered severe drone damage, possibly linked to an organization within the Russian military called the Rubicon Center of Advanced Amman Systems.
- Rubicon, established by Putin in August 2024, began releasing videos from Kursk in mid-January/early February, showing increasing volumes of hits on Ukrainian vehicles.
- The exact nature of Rubicon is unclear, but they are highly effective in Kursk.
Rubicon Drone Tactics: Jam-Resistant FPV Drones and Drone Mines
🎦 27:50-28:59⏩
- Rubicon uses tactics like landing drones on roads as anti-tank mines and detonating them under vehicles.
- Rubicon's drones, primarily standard FPV drones (especially night vision variants), are notably difficult to jam, making them more effective than fiber-optic drones.
- The scale of damage in Kursk is significant, with hundreds of vehicles destroyed, posing a major threat to Ukrainian supply lines.
- If Ukraine retreats, these drone tactics are likely to follow, extending the problem to new areas.
Jonathan's Son's Football Match: Penalty Denials and League Loss
🎦 28:59-29:28⏩
- Jonathan took a break to watch his son's football match, where they lost, meaning they will not win the league.
- For the third match in a row, his son was denied an "obvious penalty", causing Jonathan to return in a state of anger, compounded by the global situation.
Prokrovsk Front Disaster for Russians: Surrender Due to Logistical Failures
🎦 29:31-30:08⏩
- Analysts report a disaster for Russians on the Prokrovsk front.
- Ukrainian forces have reportedly forced the surrender of a large number of Russians due to encirclement.
- The entire Russian Prokrovsk front is said to be failing due to lack of logistical support, which must cross 18km of drone-contested and EW-jammed territory dominated by Ukraine.
- This has created a "radio blackout" for Russia, preventing them from effectively using glide bombs.
Russian Close Air Support Problems in Kursk: MANPADs Deployment
🎦 30:08-30:15⏩
- Russia has had to give up close air support in the Kursk area because Ukraine has deployed MANPADs (man-portable air-defence systems).
Russian Incompetence at Malaya-Lokhnya: Telegram Reports
🎦 30:15-30:28⏩
- Russians attempted to take Malaya-Lokhnya, a key Ukrainian defence point.
- Russian Telegram channels are decrying "appalling attacks and mistakes" and "incompetence".
- One unit reportedly blew themselves up on Ukrainian mines while waving victory flags.
Jonathan's Disgust at Trump's "Talking Garbage" and Pro-Russia Stance
🎦 30:28-30:38⏩
- Jonathan expresses further disgust at Trump "talking garbage" about Russia and Ukraine, especially regarding peace, despite Ukraine clearly wanting peace but on acceptable terms.
- He reiterates his sickening feeling towards the "man in the White House".
Ukrainian Denial of Kursk Withdrawal: Holding Positions and Planning Countermeasures
🎦 30:40-31:15⏩
- Despite earlier reports of a possible withdrawal, Ukrainian military (MED) is now denying they are withdrawing from Kursk.
- They state Ukrainian forces are holding positions in the Kursk region and are not withdrawing.
- They deny encirclement, although acknowledging a worsening situation due to Russian advances northwest of Sudia and Svedlilgovo.
- Ukrainian troops are reportedly planning to stabilize the front and implement countermeasures.
- Jonathan advises taking this denial with "a pinch of salt".
Kursk Situation Ambiguous: Bargaining Chip Dilemma
🎦 32:04-32:32⏩
- The situation in Kursk remains unclear, with conflicting reports.
- It's uncertain if Kursk is a complete disaster or if Ukrainians are indeed pulling out.
- Jonathan believes Ukraine would ideally want to hold onto Kursk as a bargaining chip, especially with potential negotiations approaching.
- However, he acknowledges the "sunk cost fallacy" dilemma - not wanting to waste resources on a position that is untenable.
European Satellite Operators Stepping In: Filling Intelligence Gap
🎦 32:32-33:10⏩
- Christopher Miller reports that four large European satellite operators are stepping in to provide intelligence as the US appears to be reducing its support.
- These operators are Luxembourg's SES and Spain's Hisdesat, among others.
- This suggests European providers are willing to fill the intelligence gap left by the US.
US Aid Reduction: New Aid Packages Needed, Unlikely Under Trump
🎦 33:40-34:01⏩
- Jonathan notes that the issue is not just the release of existing aid, which is already dwindling.
- The crucial need is for new aid packages, which are highly unlikely to be provided by the Trump administration.
US Troop Redeployment from Germany to Hungary: Supporting Orban and Russia
🎦 34:01-35:15⏩
- The Daily Telegraph reports that the US President is considering redeploying US troops from Germany to Hungary.
- This move is seen as supporting Viktor Orban's pro-conservative and potentially pro-Russian government.
- Orban and Hungary have connections to the American conservative movement, the Heritage Foundation, and CPAC.
- Moving troops to Hungary is seen as further supporting the "Russian world".
US Halting Participation in European Military Exercises: Functional Pull-Out from NATO
🎦 35:15-36:22⏩
- The US has reportedly informed allies it will halt participation in planning upcoming military exercises in Europe.
- Jonathan sees this as a functional pull-out of the US from NATO, despite formal withdrawal being difficult due to congressional restrictions.
- By not participating in exercises, the US can effectively weaken NATO's operational capabilities without a formal withdrawal.
US Budget Constraints and Political Motives for NATO Pullback
🎦 36:22-37:22⏩
- The US halting NATO exercise participation has two main drivers:
- Budget constraints: No new budget passed, DOD spending limited, already in deficit.
- Political: A sop to Russia and a commencement of a forced drawdown in time for disengagement.
- While there is no money yet for a full drawdown, it is expected to come, marking a long process of US pullback from Europe and NATO, focusing on the Indo-Pacific instead.
Geopolitical Shift: US Retreat from Europe, Europe Stepping Up
🎦 37:22-37:46⏩
- Jonathan sees a real change in the geopolitical landscape, with the US retreating from Europe and NATO.
- Europe will need to step up in response to this shift.
- The long-standing security infrastructure of US-European cooperation is changing.
European Public Opinion Shift: Mistrust of US, Prioritising European Security
🎦 37:46-38:33⏩
- Public opinion in Europe is shifting dramatically:
- 41% of Danes see the US as a threat to Denmark.
- 92% of Danes believe Denmark should prioritize Europe over the US for security.
- Only 16% of Germans trust the USA.
- This represents a "sea change" in political opinion in Europe and Ukraine, with Ukrainians reportedly enraged by the Trump administration's actions.
US Actions Benefit Putin: Intentional or Not
🎦 38:33-38:47⏩
- Jonathan believes none of the current US actions are sensible and all of them benefit Vladimir Putin, regardless of whether this is intentional or not.
Russian Physics Teacher Pornography Incident: Humorous Interlude
🎦 38:47-39:27⏩
- In Bashkortostan, Russia, a physics teacher was suspended after accidentally projecting pornography to his class during a lesson.
- Jonathan finds this "absolutely hilarious" and a humorous example of "quality teaching" in Russia.
Wrap up
🎦 39:27-39:28⏩
- Jonathan concludes the video.
🤖❓ AI Debrief (post task) - anything the AI didn't understand
Understood everything
🤖💭 AI Plan (pre task) - the AI's step by step thought process
The step by step thought process you initially wrote
