Ukraine War Update NEWS: Pt 1 - Overnight & Other News

"The thanks [Eddie] gets from the gods of war and the Russians is to lose two of his limbs. It's a really, really sad story"

Hello Team

🎦 00:00-00:48⏩
Jonathan is back! Sporting a Car for Ukraine T-shirt and flag from Ivan and the team and a flag from James. He notes that it will be difficult to fit all his flags in.

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Russian losses for 01/02/2025 according to the Ukrainian General Staff

🎦 00:48-01:25⏩
Jonathan provides a summary of Russian losses based on figures from the Ukrainian General Staff (find link in the video description). The figures which relate to 01/02/2025 show that Russia has lost:

• 1320 personnel ("not too bad a figure", "above 1300 but not the sort of 1700 or even 2000 figures" we have seen recently)
• 6 Tanks (below daily average)
• 14 Troop carrying AFVs
• 45 Artillery Systems (well above daily average)
• 1 Multiple Launch Rocket System
• 80 Vehicles and fuel tanks (very high)
• 2 pieces of special equipment.

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Analysis of visually confirmed Russian equipment losses

🎦 01:25-04:29⏩
Jonathan refers to visually confirmed Russian equipment losses from Andrew Perpetua's list noting that he has three others to update as well (which he will do in an Extra video). The ratio of Russian to Ukrainian losses overall is 3:1 but for combat assets is 1.5:1. Jonathan notes that the main difference is the huge number of trucks, ATVs and civilian vehicles being lost by Russia and that "there are some claims" that this is because this is what Russia are using on the frontlines. He goes on to discuss observations by Richard Vareka (Warspotting) who has observed that:

• For the first time in 2.5 years there is no visual confirmation that Russia has lost a single T-90 tank this month.
• This is only the second month of the war where this has happened (after July 2022)
• Richard surmises that Russia are now low on their best main battle tank.

Jonathan analyses this further adding:

• Overall only 151 T-90 tanks have been visually confirmed as destroyed but a portion of the 333 unknown tanks will be T-90s and others won't have been photographed.
• At any time there will be tanks out of action pending repair
• Russia claimed to have made 60 T-90Ms in 2021 but this likely includes upgrades of existing tanks (from T-90As)
• Russia also claim to have increased production to 18 per month but to achieve this most if not all tanks produced would be upgraded T-90As.

Jonathan notes that the T-90M (the upgraded tank) is the superior tank. Russia are now predominantly losing T-90Ms (rather than the T-90As). He notes that the T-90S is the export variant and that there are rumours that tanks previously exported to India had been "requisitioned" by Russia. Jonathan highlights that the nature of upgrading existing tanks means that you eventually run out of tanks to upgrade and suspects that Russia ran out of T-90As at least 6 months ago. New build T-90Ms will be more complicated and slower to produce due to sanctions. Jonathan concludes by noting that whilst T-90 losses (as a percentage of overall tanks) have always been small, they have been falling since the start of the war and speculates that Russia may be keeping elite T-90 equipped units in reserve in case they are needed to quell a mutiny in the rest of the army but that this is likely to be a small unit.

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Ukrainian equipment losses 01/02/2025

🎦 04:29-06:13⏩
Jonathan notes that Russia is increasingly using unarmoured trucks in frontline attacks, putting this data point alongside others to highlight the challenging situation Russia is in. He then moves on to discuss Ukrainian losses, starting by highlighting the loss of a 2S22 Bohdana howitzer. Ukraine are producing these rapidly but Jonathan hasn't seen many lost or heard about any updated production schedules. Ukraine have also lost five tanks (two destroyed), a Leopard 1A5 (damaged by a Lancet drone), two infantry fighting vehicles and a Swedish CV9040C infantry fighting vehicle (abandoned). A Bandvagn 206 (Swedish articulated transport vehicle) was also destroyed, having been abandoned and then hit by a Lancet drone. Jonathan notes that there were a few other losses but "not too much to worry about" and a small number of civilian vehicles.

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Analysis of visually confirmed equipment losses for 01/02/2025

🎦 06:13-07:06⏩
Jonathan analyses the visually confirmed losses from Andrew Perpetua's list. He notes the huge amount of Russian equipment destroyed, in particular the vast numbers of civilian vehicles, Ladas, pickup trucks, motorcycles, flat bed trucks, ATVs and golf carts. For Ukraine, losses are limited to a small number of civilian vehicles, but the combat asset loss ratio is "marginally better". Jonathan doesn't often refer to artillery losses in detail as many are damaged and it can be difficult to determine if they are destroyed or not, adding that even damage can make them functionally unusable if, for example, the barrel is damaged and they can't source a replacement - rendering the artillery piece as good as destroyed.

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Russian equipment losses 01/02/2025

🎦 07:06-09:17⏩
Continuing his review of visually confirmed losses (from Andrew Perpetua's list), Jonathan highlights the following Russian losses:

• Radon IL-122 Harmony (unmanned ground combat vehicle) which Jonathan believes is not a significant loss for Russia.
• BM-21 Grad multiple rocket launcher
• Howitzers and self-propelled guns.

He notes that many of these were destroyed by Ukrainian made Vampire and Nemesis drones, adding that the Nemesis drone in particular seems to be "really quite handy" and shows footage of one in action. He notes that the drones being used are much more substantial that small FPV drones. Jonathan then highlights the destruction of a dozen Russian Tanks (some identified as T-72s) noting that many were unrecognisable, which he links back to the earlier discussion about T-90 losses and how this impacts the accuracy of data from sources such as Oryx (who only include visually confirmed losses) compared to Andrew Perpetua (who includes tanks as long as he can identify them as tanks. Jonathan believes that Andrew Perpetua has the right approach as ultimately, "a tank is a tank". Finally he notes the destruction of a number of MTLB APCs (multi-purpose fully amphibious auxiliary armoured tracked vehicle) - a piece of equipment the Russians are very fond of, and a significant amount of other equipment concluding that Russia is experiencing substantial losses.

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Russian Personnel Losses - January 2025

🎦 09:17-10:47⏩
Jonathan shares information from a number of sources regarding Russian personnel losses:

• Tim White has shared a sensitive video (which Jonathan won't show) from Commander in Chief of the Ukrainian Armed Forces, Valerii Zaluzhnyi, which claims that 15,000 Russian soldiers have been neutralised in Vuhledar in January 2025. Of these 7,000 were killed, a ratio of 1:1 killed to wounded. Jonathan describes this as incredible.
• Andrew Perpetua has said that there will be a lot more Russian dead in upcoming figures based on what he is seeing. He had noted "a lot of dead Russians today" (referring to 01/02/2025) and, in response to a comment, confirmed that this was at least 4 times the usual number. Jonathan refers to Perpetua's list which shows 18,155 Russian soldiers killed in 159 days (an average of just over 100 per day). Extrapolating this, based on Perpetua's comments, Jonathan estimates that the true figure for 01/02/2025 could be as high as 500.

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Ukrainian Drone Unit Statistics - January 2025

🎦 10:47-14:29⏩
Jonathan shares some "fascinating" statistics on the activities of Robert Madyar's 47th Separate Assault Brigade (Ukraine's drone brigade). The data, which relates to January 2025 shows that the brigade:

• Carried out almost 13,000 (12,697) sorties, damaging or destroying between 400-500 enemy targets.
• Destroyed 79 tanks, 108 self propelled guns and mortars, 151 armoured personnel carriers, 3 MLRS, 519 light trucks and motor vehicles, 196 pieces of network equipment, 53 fuel tankers and depots, 28 drones and 1,935 personnel shelters and dugouts.
• Killed 830 enemy personnel and wounded a further 298.
• Achieved this using 5,470 FPV drones, with an efficiency rating of 38.8%

Jonathan notes that he isn't sure how the efficiency rating is calculated (number of drones that hit target, degree of hit, etc). He speculates that 40% of drones achieved something, with the rest lost due to electronic warfare, being shot down, pilot error, or missing the target.

• 9,853 drone dropped munitions were used.
• Two mine dropping drones were used placing 273 mines.
• 41 bomber drones were lost, with an average lifespan of 86 sorties before being destroyed (which Jonathan thinks is "pretty damn good").
• 187 Mavic drones were lost, with an average lifespan of 36 sorties.

Jonathan believes that Mavic drones are more likely to be used for reconnaissance and spotting, rather than as FPV drones as their lifespan is much shorter. Jonathan concludes by reiterating how "really interesting" these stats are and how important Madyar's unit is. He had meant to show some footage of the drones in action - hidden in grass at the roadside, waiting for a vehicle to drive past, which would then hunt them down (as a way of saving battery). He can't find the footage but notes that Forbes have reported on this tactic, reporting that Ukrainian forces are using this to target Russian convoys in Kursk and Luhansk.

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Russian forces target civilian ambulance

🎦 14:29-15:35⏩
Jonathan highlights (with some irritation) yet another instance of Russian forces attacking civilian targets. In this instance a Lancet kamikaze drone was used to attack an ambulance. He notes (with relief) that the drone malfunctioned and no damage was caused. This was however, followed up by a second drone, thankfully this also malfunctioned. Jonathan is enraged by this deliberate targeting of civilians, describing the perpetrators as "certified war criminals" He is furious with Russia, describing the army as "murderous bastards" and expresses the wish that they "get what's coming to them."

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Russia bombs civilian target in Sudiivka (Kursk)

🎦 15:35-17:55⏩
Jonathan reports on a Russian air strike which took place in Sudiivka, Kursk Oblast, Ukraine. At 16.54 on 01/02/2025, Russian aircraft deliberately targeted a boarding school which was being used to house civilians who were preparing to evacuate. The Ukrainian General Staff reported that dozens were inside the building at the time and that as many as 95 people were feared trapped under the rubble. It is unclear whether this was a case of Russia attacking their own civilians in Russian controlled Kursk, or whether this was a Ukrainian building in the area which was being used to house Ukrainian military personnel which Russia was legitimately targeting, but Jonathan believes that the former is more likely. He notes that this has been confirmed by Apti Alaudinov (commander of the Chechen Akhmat forces) who attempted to justify the attack by claiming that there should have been no civilians present, and discussing tracking missiles and aircraft - indicating that Russia had made a mistake.

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Overnight drone and missile attacks - 01/02/2025

🎦 17:55-19:10⏩
Jonathan provides an update on overnight drone and missile attacks which took place on the night of 01/02/2025.

• Overnight, Russia attacked Ukraine with Shahed drones. Of the 55 launched 40 were shot down and 13 suppressed by electronic warfare (a good result for Ukraine).
• Two cruise missiles from a previous attack on Ukraine (thought to be from the previous day or earlier) failed to leave Russian airspace and landed in Bryansk Oblast, 300km from the front line.
• In Kharkiv a civilian warehouse (2000 square meters) was hit and destroyed by a Russian drone. There were no casualties.

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Update on previous missile attacks on Poltava and Odesa

🎦 19:10-21:06⏩
Jonathan provides an update on previous attacks on Poltava and Odesa:

• Poltava: The death toll in Poltava has risen to 14, with two more bodies found in the rubble. 17 people were injured (including 4 children) and 22 people were rescued. Jonathan is particularly moved by the story of a 9-year old girl, Sofia Yavolskaya, who was killed along with her parents in the attack. He shows footage of Sofia and some artwork she had created promoting peace and reflects on the impact on her grandfather who lost his son, daughter-in-law and granddaughter. He also remembers Anastasia Kolbak, an actress who was also killed.

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Trump's trade war will distract from the war in Ukraine

🎦 21:06-27:32⏩
Jonathan deviates from his usual focus on military activities to discuss the potential impact of Trump's trade war on the war in Ukraine. He reassures viewers that he will continue to cover all military aspects of the war as before but warns that there will be a "pretty crazy" few weeks and months ahead as the US seems intent on picking fights with neighbours and allies, which will provide a distraction from Ukraine. Jonathan believes that this is good news for Putin - the only one to benefit from these distractions - allowing Russia to become emboldened and get away with further atrocities in Ukraine whilst the US is distracted. Jonathan is frustrated by this turn of events, particularly as it involves attacking allies such as Canada (a Five Eyes intelligence partner) - a country which has stood side by side with the US in previous conflicts such as Afghanistan. Jonathan reads a comment from Edward Hunter Christie describing Trump's actions as insane, dishonourable and likening them to extortion and the mafia, forcing allies to become "clients to be fleeced". Jonathan agrees with the sentiment, highlighting a Wall Street Journal article which described Trump's actions as the "dumbest trade war in history", imposing a 25% tariff on Mexican and Canadian imports for no reason. Jonathan believes that this has nothing to do with fentanyl (as claimed by Trump) but is all about Trump fulfilling his ambitions to turn Canada into the 51st State (comparing it to his previous interest in acquiring Greenland). Jonathan cites a paper, written by Robert Lighthizer, which argues that Trump views tariffs as a weapon to reshape global trade and force manufacturing jobs back to the US, describing it as "an assault on globalisation" and "America first". Jonathan is concerned that the current climate will allow Russia to push the boundaries as the US is distracted, noting that NORAD has confirmed Russian activity in the Arctic - something which Trump had said would not happen under his watch. He notes that this was only week two of Trump's presidency, highlighting his incompetence. He reads comments from various other social media users who share his concern:

• "Our adversaries can smell the incompetence from continents away" (Chris Jackson)
• Russia and China are "celebrating the destruction of America's centuries of soft power...doing the exact opposite of Trump" by filling the vacuum left by the US withdrawal.
• "The Kremlin is celebrating"

Jonathan is particularly concerned by the impact on USAID (United States Agency for International Development) which has been cut off with a 90 day moratorium on all aid, effectively cutting off America's soft power "at a time when it needs to be at its most potent". He describes this as incredibly worrying, adding "I am super, super worried". Jonathan believes that Ukraine will need to fight on the battlefield but also in the political and information spheres to counteract the distraction these events will cause, describing it as a time of chaos. "We've gone from rules based norms and order to chaos. Trump is a purveyor of chaos" he concludes.

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Base UA volunteer seriously injured by the Russians

🎦 27:32-31:47⏩
In a change of tone, Jonathan ends the video on a more sombre note, talking about an English volunteer, Eddie, who was working with Base UA. Jonathan has previously interviewed Anton from the organisation, and Pierre (who Jonathan had travelled around Ukraine with) also works with Base UA. Eddie was seriously injured during an evacuation when the Base UA truck he was travelling in was targeted by Russian forces. Jonathan, visibly upset, shows pictures of the blood soaked interior of the truck describing the scene as "freaking horrific", adding that Eddie has lost most of his leg and arm as a result of the attack. He was saved by his colleagues (in the same way that he has saved countless others) and is full of praise for the tireless work Base UA volunteers carry out, urging viewers to help the organisation and follow Pierre Dupont (on Instagram) to find out more about the work they do. This attack, whilst not yet reported by the ICC is just another example of a Russian war crime (the 141,632nd since 23 February the previous year, according to one of the comments). Pierre describes Eddie as "the most kindest, genuine person I've ever met" and expresses his gratitude to Philip who was with Eddie and saved his life. Jonathan expresses a wish to speak to Eddie once he has recovered. Jonathan becomes emotional as he reflects on Eddie's injuries - "the thanks he gets from the gods of war and the Russians is to lose two of his limbs. It's a really, really sad story". There are, he reflects, many heroes in Ukraine, not all of them on the frontline, many risking their lives to save others. Jonathan is clearly moved by this story "spare a thought for Eddie and for Base UA...they are a wonderful organisation".

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Wrap up

🎦 31:47-31:54⏩
Jonathan reminds viewers that there is risk in everything, especially in a warzone, but that the most important thing is that Eddie did not lose his life. He encourages people to look after themselves and "spare a thought for those less fortunate".

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