Ukraine War Update NEWS: Pt 1 - Overnight & Other News

"It seems like destroying a children's hospital is not enough, said the person, who, like others, was granted anonymity to discuss a private meeting. And that's the thing. It's like, what does it take to shift that needle? Like, a children's hospital has just been blown up and that's not enough to say, yeah, maybe we should allow those airplanes to be destroyed it's really really frustrating"

Hello Team🎦 00:00-00:12⏩

Jonathan welcomes viewers to a new video: Ukraine War news update - Pt 1, for the 13th of July 2024, and dives straight into the Ukrainian General Staff figures for Russian losses from the previous day.

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Russian Losses🎦 00:12-03:12⏩

Jonathan delves into the Ukrainian General Staff's report on Russian losses for the preceding day, highlighting:

• Personnel: 1,120 (within the typical 1,000-1,300 range)
• Tanks: 8 (average)
• Armoured Personnel Carriers: 24 (slightly above average)
• Artillery Systems: 58 (over three times the average)
• Anti-aircraft Warfare System: 1
• Vehicles and Fuel Tanks: 52
• Special Equipment: 13

Jonathan acknowledges the figures represent another grim day in the conflict, emphasising the ongoing, destructive nature of the war. He defends his reliance on Ukrainian figures, citing their consistency with visually confirmed evidence, assessments by international intelligence and MODs, and analyses from organisations like the BBC, Meduza, and Mediazona. He criticises Russian claims as blatant lies, using examples of inflated Ukrainian aircraft losses and unrealistic weekly claims of destroyed Western equipment.

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The Importance of Skepticism🎦 03:12-06:05⏩

Jonathan stresses the importance of skepticism when evaluating wartime claims. He acknowledges that Ukrainian figures may contain some degree of "guesstimation," particularly regarding personnel. However, he emphasises their relative robustness compared to the demonstrably false claims often made by the Russian side. He illustrates this point by referencing the Russian MOD's claim of destroying a significant amount of Western equipment in a single week, including seven HIMARS, two Patriot systems, three Hawk systems, and four S-300 launchers. Jonathan challenges these claims with evidence from open sources, noting no visual confirmation for the destruction of this equipment. He concedes that Russia might have lost an S-300 system in Mariupol based on reports of a strike on the airbase there and the presence of an S-300 system in previous satellite imagery. However, he cautions against blindly accepting Russian claims and advises awaiting confirmation from further imagery analysis.

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Russia's Dwindling Artillery Stocks: Evidence of M46 Field Guns🎦 06:05-09:50⏩

Jonathan discusses visual confirmation of a Russian M46 field gun, a World War II-era weapon, being transported towards the front line. He highlights the significance of this sighting, suggesting that Russia is increasingly reliant on outdated equipment due to the depletion of its modern artillery systems. He references analysis by "HiNaz" on Twitter, who observed a train loaded with M46 130mm field guns and estimated that Russia had removed approximately half of its estimated 600 stored M46s. This observation aligns with the significant losses of artillery systems reported by the Ukrainian General Staff, suggesting that Russia's vast stockpiles of old equipment are being drawn down. Jonathan addresses viewers who question the plausibility of these figures, explaining that while some damaged systems may be repaired and returned to service, the appearance of M46s indicates a reliance on older, less capable systems. He further suggests that this trend will likely continue, with Russia resorting to even older D-10, D-20, and D-30 artillery pieces.

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Exhaustion of Russian MTLB Stocks🎦 09:50-10:58⏩

Jonathan discusses analysis by defence analyst "Bent" on Twitter, indicating a significant depletion of Russian MTLB armoured personnel carriers. Bent estimates that less than 18% of the pre-war MTLB numbers remain, with a large portion likely out of commission due to damage or lack of maintenance. This exhaustion of MTLB stocks further underscores the strain on Russia's military capabilities. Jonathan concludes that even the remaining operational MTLBs would likely require extensive repairs and maintenance to be combat-effective. He emphasizes that the dwindling MTLB numbers illustrate the long-term challenges facing the Russian military in sustaining its operations in Ukraine.

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Ukrainian Partisan Activity: Sabotage in Aleshiki🎦 10:58-11:31⏩

Jonathan shifts focus to Ukrainian partisan activity, reporting on sabotage operations carried out by the "Atesh" partisan group near Oleshky in the Kherson region. The partisans set fire to dry grass near the positions of the 70th Motorized Rifle Division, resulting in the destruction of dugouts, trenches, weapons depots, and food supplies. According to reports, up to 20 Russian personnel suffered severe burns in the attack.

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Russian Passenger Jet Crash: Sukhoi Superjet 100 Down Near Kolomna🎦 11:31-12:37⏩

Jonathan reports on the crash of a Sukhoi Superjet 100 passenger jet in the Moscow region. The aircraft, owned by Gazpromovia airline, was on a test flight when it crashed near Kolomna, killing all three crew members on board. Jonathan notes that the crash site footage has circulated widely, but it remains unclear if the incident resulted from the broader maintenance issues plaguing the Russian airline industry. Regardless, he points out that this incident reflects poorly on Russia's aviation sector, especially given previous issues with larger aircraft.

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Overnight Drone and Missile Strikes🎦 12:37-13:37⏩

Jonathan covers a relatively quiet night regarding long-range strikes, with Ukraine shooting down four out of five Russian drones. The fifth drone disappeared from radar over Belarus, potentially indicating a failed mission. He highlights two significant strikes:

• A successful Ukrainian attack on an oil depot in Rostov-on-Don, causing multiple storage tanks to burn for over seven hours.
• A strike on a substation in Rostov's Smiljansky district.

Jonathan anticipates further updates throughout the day regarding potential additional strikes.

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Russian Naval Activity: New Base in Abkhazia and Mining of Novorossiysk Harbour🎦 13:37-15:26⏩

Jonathan discusses Russian naval activity, starting with the sighting of a Russian Navy ship in Ochamchira, located within the Abkhazia separatist region of Georgia. He explains that Russia is developing a new naval base in this area, potentially as a replacement for Sevastopol and an alternative to the inadequate port facilities at Novorossiysk. He then addresses reports of Russian landing ships mining the entrance to Novorossiysk Harbour, likely in response to concerns about Ukrainian maritime drones. Jonathan notes that while this measure might offer temporary protection, it highlights the vulnerability of Russian naval assets, particularly as Ukraine continues to develop drones with greater range.

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Front Line Updates: Ukrainian Recapture and Russian Challenges🎦 15:26-16:30⏩

Jonathan provides updates from the front lines:

• Ukrainian forces have retaken the border area of Sochnitsky, Kozachok, repelling a previous Russian incursion.
• Despite facing tough resistance across the front line, the Ukrainians are holding their ground.
• Jonathan speculates that both sides are stretched thin, lacking the depth to make significant territorial gains.

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Russian Military Blogger Sentiment: Growing Concerns About Victory🎦 16:30-18:50⏩

Jonathan observes a shift in sentiment among Russian military bloggers, with some expressing increasing pessimism about the prospect of a Russian victory. This change follows a crackdown on dissenting voices like "Evil Gherkin" and "MERS," who were previously critical of the Russian military's performance. Jonathan cites examples from bloggers "Jakub Janowski" and "Andrew Perpetua," highlighting their concerns about the lack of progress on the front lines, the growing disparity in resources between Russia and Ukraine, and the superior quality of Western artillery systems. He contrasts this with the overly optimistic assessments often presented in Western media. Jonathan acknowledges the concerns expressed by some in the West, particularly regarding potential US aid cuts. However, he emphasises that Ukraine's growing indigenous production capacity and consistent European support paint a more optimistic picture.

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US Restrictions on Striking Russian Territory🎦 18:50-25:06⏩

Jonathan expresses frustration with the Biden administration's restrictions on Ukraine using US-supplied weapons to strike targets within Russia. He acknowledges the potential for escalation but argues that Russia's repeated violations of international norms, such as bombing civilian infrastructure, warrant a stronger response. He speculates that the Biden administration might be secretly assisting Ukraine in developing its own long-range strike capabilities to avoid direct US involvement. Jonathan cites reports of Ukrainian officials, including President Zelensky, expressing disappointment with Biden's refusal to lift these restrictions, even after the recent attack on a children's hospital in Kyiv. He questions what it will take for the US to reconsider its position, emphasizing the human cost of inaction.

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Storm Shadow Missile Controversy🎦 25:06-26:13⏩

Jonathan delves into the controversy surrounding the use of UK-supplied Storm Shadow missiles. He addresses UK Labour leader Keir Starmer's recent statement, which seemed to suggest a shift in the UK's stance on allowing Ukraine to use these missiles against targets within Russia. Jonathan believes Starmer's comments were either misinterpreted or based on incomplete information, as the UK MOD later clarified that its position remained unchanged. He speculates that the restrictions likely stem from either the US or Italy, as both countries are involved in the production of Storm Shadow missiles. He argues that neither the UK nor France would object to Ukraine using these missiles against military targets within Russia and points to analyst speculation that the US is behind the restrictions.

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Rumours of F-16 Activity Over Odessa🎦 26:13-27:08⏩

Jonathan discusses rumours of Ukrainian F-16 fighter jets operating over the Odessa region. While unconfirmed, sources suggest that up to four F-16s have been flying missions from Romanian airfields. These rumours align with earlier reports that Ukraine would receive an initial batch of six F-16s, with potentially more to follow. Jonathan speculates that these early deployments might focus on defensive operations, such as intercepting Russian missiles and drones targeting the Odessa region. The proximity of Romania would provide a safe haven for the jets, minimizing the risk of destruction on the ground.

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Analysis of the Kyiv Hospital Strike🎦 27:08-28:53⏩

Jonathan revisits the recent Russian missile strike on a children's hospital in Kyiv, citing analysis from Andrew Perpetua. Perpetua suggests that the attack was part of a planned multi-day operation rather than an isolated incident. Jonathan explains that the strike followed a series of attacks on Ukrainian air bases and air defense systems, including the Mirorod air base and an S-300 site in the Poltava region. These attacks, which degraded Ukraine's air defenses, likely created an opening for the subsequent missile strike on Kyiv. He points out that the destruction of the Ukopromprom facility and the children's hospital in Kyiv suggests a deliberate targeting strategy rather than a random act.

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Wrap up🎦 28:53-29:04⏩

Jonathan concludes by expressing his disgust at the deliberate targeting of civilians, particularly children undergoing chemotherapy, questioning the morality of those responsible. He thanks viewers for watching and encourages them to like, subscribe, and share the video.

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