Ukraine War Update NEWS: Pt 1 - Overnight & Other News
Table of Contents 📖
"This is what freedom looks like in Russia."
Hello Team
🎦 00:00-00:39⏩
Jonathan welcomes everyone to the channel. He announces he will be doing a live stream at 3pm UK time with Daniela from Turchny about FPV drone data.
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🪦 DISCLAIMER FOR GENERAL STAFF LOSSES DATA
- These are real people with real lives and real families who love them. Don’t let the numbers sap your humanity.
- These numbers probably aren’t accurate but they’re the best we have and we don’t need them to be accurate to be indicative of patterns of activity.
- All losses are estimates. Losses cannot be counted with accuracy because of the conditions on the ground.
- Both sides would see it to be of their advantage to minimize their own losses maximize the other side’s losses.
- Neither side releases their losses but we have enough transparency from the Ukrainian side to have confidence in they are indicative.
- Personnel losses are hard to count. If a soldier gets injured, heals up, and returns to the front line only to get injured again, is that one loss or two? Also, how to deal with losses from PMC’s or soldiers fighting with RF from occupied territories?
- Equipment losses are hard to count. If an AA complex involves several parts and one part gets disabled, is that a loss, or a fraction of a loss? If a tank gets disabled, repaired, back into the fight, then disabled again, is that one lost tank or two?
- All recorded losses are vulnerable to multiple reporting. We have already seen numerous cases of multiple drones in the air reporting the same loss from different angles as multiple engagements.
- Losses are not always reported on the same day they occurred. It is frequent that drone losses are reported at least 24 hours after other terrestrial equipment losses. Certain losses may not be reported for days or weeks for military intelligence reasons.
Ukrainian General Staff Data - 25 April 2024
🎦 00:39-03:05⏩
Jonathan reviews the Ukrainian General Staff data on Russian losses for 25 April 2024:
- 950 personnel - this is a high number, near the top end of the range
- 7 tanks
- 15 APVs
- 31 artillery systems - a high number
- 35 vehicles and fuel tanks
- 16 pieces of special equipment
He speculates that the high Russian losses and gains of a couple of kilometres at places such as Krasnohorivka (north of Avdiivka) and Ocheretny are indicative of Russian tactics to overwhelm Ukrainian positions with numbers. Jonathan cautions viewers that whilst the long-term prognosis looks good for Ukraine and bad for Russia, the short-term prognosis is not so good for Ukraine with the Russians making small but costly gains on the front lines. He reiterates that the purpose of his videos is to give a balanced picture of what is happening.
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Oryx Losses Data
🎦 03:05-05:04⏩
Jonathan reviews the latest visually confirmed losses data from Oryx:
- Ukrainian Losses: Another P-18 Malachite radar, a couple of Bradleys (3 in total).
- Russian Losses: A Buk-M1-2 air defence system (high value) and surveillance and comms equipment (antennas, cameras, MIROMPs). He also notes the loss of the usual quantities of artillery pieces (T-80s, T-62s, IFVs, 3 x MTLBs), APCs, trucks, civilian vehicles and ATVs.
Jonathan observes that the volume of Russian equipment losses is fairly standard but the loss of the Buk air defence system is significant and will counteract the loss of the Ukrainian P-18 Malachite radar.
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Russian Military Adaptations - Debate: Rob Lee vs John Ridge
🎦 05:04-15:22⏩
Jonathan discusses the debate on Twitter between military experts Rob Lee and John Ridge about whether recent pictures of Russian military adaptations are a sign of innovation or desperation.
- Examples of Russian military adaptations: A truck with a large anti-drone cage, MTLBs with anti-drone systems, a Murom observation post with an anti-drone cage and a desert cross golf cart with an anti-drone cage. He also discusses the turtle tank - a tank that has corrugated iron and an anti-drone mechanism on top, sides added to protect dismounts and a mine roller on the front.
- Rob Lee's View: Believes that the adaptations are a sign that the Russians are responding to the challenges they are encountering on the battlefield, citing the use of drones, the need to get troops across open ground, the lack of ATGMs, anti-tank mines and artillery. In his view, the Russians are using the right equipment (tanks) for the job as they have better armour than IFVs/APCs and the adaptations such as mine rollers are designed to be used by tanks. He also makes the point that these adaptations may not be relevant to other militaries/conflicts.
- John Ridge's View: Whilst acknowledging that the Russians are adapting and innovating, he believes that it is borne out of desperation. In his view, the adaptations highlight the lack of APCs and IFVs, which has resulted in the Russians having to adapt obsolete T-55 tanks (rather than more modern T-72s) for use as APCs by adding side panels to protect troops. He believes that this should serve as a lesson to Western militaries to ensure they manufacture sufficient quantities of APCs and IFVs to withstand attrition. He refutes Rob Lee's point that the tanks offer better protection arguing that counter-drone housing and other adaptations could be fitted on MTLBs/BMPs.
- Jonathan's View: Acknowledges that both Rob Lee and John Ridge make valid points - on the one hand, the adaptations are useful, but on the other hand, they are a sign of desperation and capability gaps. He questions why, after 2 years of war, the Russians are having to make do with adapting equipment when they have had ample time to design/manufacture equipment. He believes that the Russian military industrial complex should have been able to do better.
Drone Warfare - A Game Changer
🎦 15:22-17:41⏩
Jonathan shows footage of a small drone destroying a large building. He is impressed by the power of the small drone and comments that drones are becoming more powerful and capable of fulfilling the role of artillery. He then shows footage of a Russian Su-25 almost hitting a DJI Mavic quadcopter drone and questions what would have happened if there had been an impact. Would it have been significant enough to bring the plane down or would the drone have just been buffeted out of the way? He asks viewers to share their thoughts.
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Russian MTLB Stockpiles Depleted
🎦 17:41-23:47⏩
Jonathan discusses a thread by OSINT researcher John P about Russian MTLB stockpiles, which are nearing depletion.
- John P estimates that, based on pre-war figures, the Russians had 2,461 MTLBs in storage, but only 921 are left. He believes that a proportion of these will be unusable due to cannibalisation. This number is based on an analysis of footage primarily from 2023.
- Losses of MTLBs are high. Oryx estimates that, as of 8 April 2024, the Russians have lost 804.
- The UK's Military Balance 2022 estimated that Russia had 3,900 MTLBs in active service at the start of the war. If you add the storage figures, this gives a starting figure of almost 6,000 vehicles. Even if storage is depleted, there should still be MTLBs in service for months to come. However, once they are gone, that's it.
Jonathan observes that the depletion of MTLBs is significant and is forcing the Russians to adapt their equipment. He illustrates this with an example of a recent Russian attack in Krasnoyarsk where only five vehicles were used and, judging by the footage, most of these were destroyed. This is in stark contrast to the beginning of the war when convoys of 30-60 vehicles were commonplace. He questions claims by the German Defence Minister that the Russians are stockpiling equipment and believes that this is unlikely. The lack of large-scale attacks with artillery support suggests that the Russians have equipment and possibly even ammunition issues.
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Overnight News - 25/26 April
🎦 23:47-27:25⏩
It was a quiet night on 25/26 April with no significant ground attacks. The usual areas (Kharkiv, Sumy) were targeted by Russian artillery. Three children (a 4-year old boy and 2 girls aged 5 and 16) were among the injured. In other news:
- A Ukrainian kamikaze drone was shot down over Russia. Jonathan observes that, whilst this is good news for Russia, it does give them the opportunity to examine the drone and potentially copy it.
- 70% of energy infrastructure damaged during Russian attacks on Kyiv has now been restored.
- A 17-year old girl, Lyubov Lizunova, has been jailed for 3 1/2 years in Russia for social media posts and graffiti critical of the Kremlin. Her co-defendant, Alexander Snezhov, received a 6-year sentence and Vladislav Vyshnevsky was sentenced to 1 1/2 years of forced labour.
- Captured Western equipment, including Bradleys, Abrams and Leopards, will be paraded through Moscow during the annual May 9th Victory Day celebrations.
- Ukraine continues to build fortifications in Zaporizhzhia.
Wrap up
🎦 27:25-27:30⏩
Jonathan thanks viewers for watching and signs off.
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