Ukraine Conflict: 4-Day Full Frontline Update
Table of Contents 📖
"They are getting weapons, but they certainly need people."
Hello Team
🎦 00:00-00:30⏩
Jonathan welcomes everyone to the channel for his four-day frontline update, noting it has been a while since the last one.
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📍 FRONT-LINE UPDATE -🗺️ MAP LEGEND
Kursk: North Korean Special Forces & Mapping Updates
🎦 00:30-02:41⏩
Jonathan begins with a video showing North Korean special forces operating in the Kursk region. This confirms earlier reports about their presence, with sightings near Kramanyoya, and further south on the western and eastern parts of the northern front. There are also claims of their activity in Pokovo. Jonathan notes that this information comes from both Ukrainian and Russian sources and encourages viewers to check out his earlier breaking news video for further details. He then reviews the mapping updates, highlighting the discrepancy between Suriyak Maps and Andrew Perpetua's assessments of Russian advancements in the region. Suriyak Maps shows significant gains, pushing further south, while Perpetua interprets the situation differently, acknowledging only that the Russians control at least half of Plukhovo. He believes the remaining area is likely a grey zone. Overall, Jonathan concludes there have been relatively few gains for the Ukrainians in the Kursk region.
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Kharkiv: No Change on the Frontline
🎦 02:42-02:49⏩
Jonathan reports no changes in the two Kharkiv sectors.
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Donetsk: Limited Gains & French-Trained Brigade
🎦 02:49-04:29⏩
Jonathan is encouraged by the limited Russian gains on the eastern front, noting only minor advances in fields south of the Pistachane sector, according to Suriyak Maps. He flags an interesting development concerning the French-trained and equipped "An-of-Kyiv" brigade, reportedly now operating in Donetsk. Rumours suggest the unit has been split up to address various needs along the Donbas front. Jonathan acknowledges the suboptimal nature of fragmenting a cohesive unit but recognises the dire need for troops and resources across the frontline.
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Chasiv Yar: Ukrainian Pushback & Mapping Discrepancies
🎦 04:30-06:09⏩
Positive news from Chasiv Yar, where Ukrainian forces have pushed back Russian advancements. Jonathan points out the Russians' control over much of the main Chasiv Yar settlement and their positions west of the canal, particularly towards Stupochki. However, recent fighting has seen Ukrainian troops reclaim some territory in this area. Greyskull's mapping supports this assessment, showing Ukrainian forces retaking half of a long building near Stupochki, aligning with Suriyak Maps' depiction. This suggests a pushback of Russian lines north of the road in that area. While Perpetua shows Russian control of land near Kuznitschivka, he is cautious in his assessment, awaiting further evidence. Jonathan speculates that Russia likely maintains control all the way to the canal, as shown by Suriyak Maps.
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Turetsk: Heavy Fighting & Russian Gains
🎦 06:09-07:32⏩
Jonathan reports heavy fighting in Turetsk, sharing footage of a building being blown up by Ukrainian forces. He believes Ukrainians may be booby-trapping structures, waiting for Russian troops to enter before detonating them. Despite this tactic, Russia has made considerable gains in the past four days. Suriyak Maps illustrates their advances in the center and south of Turetsk, pushing towards New York. He notes some discrepancies in Suriyak's map, advising viewers to disregard certain pins. Jonathan observes that despite instances of Ukrainian pushback, Russian forces are now pushing on in Turetsk.
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Prokrovsk: Russian Advance & Trench Line Concerns
🎦 07:32-08:15⏩
Jonathan expresses concern about the Russian advance toward Prokrovsk, questioning whether the main Ukrainian trench line in this area has been breached. While his understanding was that Russians were held back from this line, their recent successes south of Prokrovsk raise concerns about a potential breach. The exact location of the trench line remains unclear, but the Russians are making headway pushing north and west. Novotroitske appears to be under full Russian control.
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Donetsk: Russian Gains & Potential Encirclement at Hanivka
🎦 08:15-12:26⏩
Jonathan notes Andrew Perpetua's revised mapping, acknowledging more extensive Russian control than previously depicted. However, some discrepancies remain between Perpetua's and Suriyak Maps' assessments, particularly regarding the Russian defensive line. Jonathan highlights reports of Ukrainian troops being encircled in Hanivka, with Emil Castelehaimi's analysis suggesting Russian forces have cut off a Ukrainian detachment of unknown size by pushing deeper into Uspenivka. This has created a precarious situation for the Ukrainians defending Hanivka, exacerbating existing supply line vulnerabilities. Castelehaimi argues that this situation could have been avoided and criticises the decision to hold unfavourable positions. While efforts are underway to relieve the encircled troops, their success depends on the extent of Russian entrenchment in Uspenivka. Jonathan shares a link to Blackbird Group's full map for a comprehensive overview of the situation and acknowledges the concerning developments in southern Donetsk, particularly the potential encirclement of Ukrainian forces at Hanivka.
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Southern Donetsk: Russian Gains Along the Makarivka River
🎦 12:29-13:03⏩
Jonathan observes some minor gains for Ukraine in certain areas but emphasizes their insignificance in the larger context. Russian forces are making significant advances, including south of Velyka Novosilka. While the main area of Velyka Novosilka remains unchanged, Russia has made gains south along the Makarivka River, securing territory in the fields on both sides.
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Robotyne: Minor Adjustments to Perpetua's Map
🎦 13:04-13:20⏩
Jonathan points out a minor adjustment in Andrew Perpetua's mapping around Robotyne, aligning it more closely with Sir Ed Mattson's earlier assessment. He notes this change is not overly significant, as Suriyak Maps had already reflected these positions.
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Overall Assessment: Ukrainians on the Back Foot
🎦 13:21-14:05⏩
Jonathan expresses deep concern about the situation in Donetsk, particularly in Prokrovsk and southern Donetsk near Velyka Novosilka. He highlights the potential encirclement of Ukrainian troops as a major worry. While Chasiv Yar seems to be holding, the deteriorating situation in Turetsk is a cause for concern. He notes the stability of the northeastern front and the continued Ukrainian resistance in Kursk, but questions their ability to withstand Russian pressure until January 20th, the purported deadline set by Russia for retaking the region.
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Ukrainian Losses & Need for Reinforcements
🎦 14:05-14:29⏩
Jonathan stresses the Ukrainians' urgent need for manpower and weaponry. He reports the loss of a Su-25 pilot on a combat mission. This loss of both experienced personnel and aircraft is a setback for Ukraine, highlighting their need for reinforcements.
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Wrap up
🎦 14:29-14:44⏩
Jonathan concludes the update, acknowledging the concerning developments and the Ukrainians' defensive position. He emphasizes the predominantly one-sided nature of the conflict, with Russian advances posing a significant challenge for Ukraine.
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