Ukraine War Update NEWS: Pt 1 - Overnight & Other News
Table of Contents 📖
"whenever you think, what a great opportunity to flank and cut off those B-words, you realise over the coming days that in reality, there's simply nobody on the Ukrainian side to execute such seemingly easily doable manoeuvre."
Hello Team
🎦 00:00-00:58⏩
Jonathan welcomes viewers to another update, noting that this is part of a two-part series for July 11th, 2024. He mentions an earlier video where he shared his concerns about the current geopolitical landscape, particularly regarding China, Russia, and NATO. He then transitions to discussing the usual caveats regarding the information presented, emphasising that these can be found in the video description.
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🪦 DISCLAIMER FOR GENERAL STAFF LOSSES DATA
- These are real people with real lives and real families who love them. Don’t let the numbers sap your humanity.
- These numbers probably aren’t accurate but they’re the best we have and we don’t need them to be accurate to be indicative of patterns of activity.
- All losses are estimates. Losses cannot be counted with accuracy because of the conditions on the ground.
- Both sides would see it to be of their advantage to minimize their own losses maximize the other side’s losses.
- Neither side releases their losses but we have enough transparency from the Ukrainian side to have confidence in they are indicative.
- Personnel losses are hard to count. If a soldier gets injured, heals up, and returns to the front line only to get injured again, is that one loss or two? Also, how to deal with losses from PMC’s or soldiers fighting with RF from occupied territories?
- Equipment losses are hard to count. If an AA complex involves several parts and one part gets disabled, is that a loss, or a fraction of a loss? If a tank gets disabled, repaired, back into the fight, then disabled again, is that one lost tank or two?
- All recorded losses are vulnerable to multiple reporting. We have already seen numerous cases of multiple drones in the air reporting the same loss from different angles as multiple engagements.
- Losses are not always reported on the same day they occurred. It is frequent that drone losses are reported at least 24 hours after other terrestrial equipment losses. Certain losses may not be reported for days or weeks for military intelligence reasons.
General Staff Figures for Russian Losses
🎦 00:58-02:03⏩
Jonathan begins by reviewing the General Staff figures for Russian losses, pointing out that there is limited content available as most attention is focused on NATO related matters. He highlights the figures for personnel, tanks, armoured personnel vehicles, artillery systems, MLRS, and anti-aircraft systems. He notes that while tank losses are low, artillery and anti-aircraft system losses are higher than the previous day.
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Analysis of Russian BTR Stockpiles and Cannibalisation
🎦 02:03-08:55⏩
Jonathan delves into an analysis of Russian equipment stockpiles, focusing on BTR (armoured personnel carrier) variants. He references a thread by "Jumpy" that examines satellite imagery to assess Russian vehicle stockpiles. He highlights the observation that older BTR models, particularly the BTR-70, are increasingly being used, suggesting a depletion of more modern equipment. Jonathan emphasises the significance of cannibalisation, where parts are salvaged from older vehicles to keep others operational. He cites a table illustrating the decline in the number of available BMPs (infantry fighting vehicles), noting that many of the remaining vehicles are inoperable or specialised variants not ideal for combat. He questions why Russia is deploying makeshift buggies on the frontlines if they possess such extensive stockpiles, suggesting that logistical issues and the poor condition of stored vehicles hinder their ability to effectively utilise these reserves.
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Fires in Russia and Ukraine
🎦 08:55-10:26⏩
Jonathan moves on to report on several fires in both Russia and Ukraine. He mentions a large fire at a tile factory in Kimki, Russia, and three additional fires in Russia the previous day, including one at a courthouse in Krasnodar and another on top of a building in Moscow. The cause of these fires remains unknown. He also describes a significant fire at a recycling warehouse in Volgograd, Russia, and another fire at a building materials warehouse in Luhansk, Ukraine, the cause of which is also unclear.
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Drone and Missile Strikes
🎦 10:26-11:54⏩
Jonathan reports on various drone and missile strikes. He mentions that Russia claims to have shot down six drones targeting Ukraine overnight, specifically in the Mykhailiv, Kramatorsk, Lutsk, Lviv, and Ivano-Frankivsk regions. He also mentions reports of two Iskander-M ballistic missiles striking the village of Kralovets in the Sumy region of Ukraine, resulting in one civilian injury. Additionally, he shows footage of a fire in Yevpatoria, Crimea, speculating that it could be a maritime target. Finally, he reports on the downing of a drone heading towards Moscow and two more drones over the Bryansk region, with additional drones downed over the Tambov and Tula regions.
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Frontline Update: Borova & The Turetsk-New York Area
🎦 11:54-17:13⏩
Jonathan discusses the frontline situation, focusing on the reported halt of a Russian advance towards Borova in the Kharkiv Oblast by Ukraine's 3rd Assault Brigade. He highlights the strategic significance of this area, as Russia is believed to be amassing troops for a westward push. He then transitions to the Turetsk-New York area, noting the precarious position of Ukrainian forces due to their limited capacity to exploit potential flanking opportunities. He cites a comment from Julian Röpcke, a German journalist, who observes the difficulty of executing such maneuvers due to a lack of Ukrainian personnel. Jonathan expresses concern about the situation in this area, suggesting that it presents a significant risk for the Ukrainians. He emphasizes that while Russia continues to suffer heavy losses, Ukraine's limited resources make it challenging for them to capitalize on these setbacks. He concludes by highlighting the ongoing attrition on both sides, resulting in a forced degradation of troop quality and overall capability.
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Ukrainian Authorities Detain a Ship for Illegal Grain Exports
🎦 17:13-18:50⏩
Shifting away from frontline updates, Jonathan discusses the apprehension of a ship involved in the illegal export of grain from occupied Crimea. He cites a report from Anton Gerashchenko, Advisor to the Minister of Internal Affairs of Ukraine, stating that Ukrainian authorities detained a Cameroon-flagged vessel suspected of illegally transporting agricultural products through Sevastopol. The ship's captain, an Azerbaijani national, is facing charges, and an investigation is underway to determine the origin of the grain. This incident highlights Ukraine's efforts to counter illicit activities and enforce sanctions against Russia.
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Andrew Perpetua's Visually Confirmed Loss List
🎦 18:50-22:35⏩
Jonathan concludes the video by reviewing Andrew Perpetua's latest visually confirmed loss list. He points out a significant disparity between Ukrainian and Russian losses, estimating the ratio to be approximately 2:1 or even 3:1 in favour of Ukraine, with total losses being at least 4:1. He lists various Russian equipment losses, including air defense systems, howitzers, tanks, armoured vehicles, and support vehicles. He specifically notes the destruction of a Ukrainian radar system and damage to a BM-21 Grad launcher. Jonathan emphasizes the effectiveness of Russian Lancet loitering munitions and night vision drones against Ukrainian forces. He observes that while towed howitzers are frequently damaged, they are more resilient to complete destruction compared to self-propelled artillery due to their simpler design.
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Wrap Up
🎦 22:35-22:35⏩
Jonathan thanks his viewers for watching and expresses his appreciation for their support. He signs off, saying he will speak to them soon.
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