Ukraine War Update NEWS: Pt 1 - Overnight & Other News
Table of Contents 📖
"The idea that you would have three guards for 65 POWs is highly unlikely."
Hello Team
🎦 00:00-00:30⏩
Jonathan welcomes viewers to another video with a cup of tea in hand. He is in a "ranty mood" today and warns viewers he may rant in part 2.
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🪦 DISCLAIMER FOR GENERAL STAFF LOSSES DATA
- These are real people with real lives and real families who love them. Don’t let the numbers sap your humanity.
- These numbers probably aren’t accurate but they’re the best we have and we don’t need them to be accurate to be indicative of patterns of activity.
- All losses are estimates. Losses cannot be counted with accuracy because of the conditions on the ground.
- Both sides would see it to be of their advantage to minimize their own losses maximize the other side’s losses.
- Neither side releases their losses but we have enough transparency from the Ukrainian side to have confidence in they are indicative.
- Personnel losses are hard to count. If a soldier gets injured, heals up, and returns to the front line only to get injured again, is that one loss or two? Also, how to deal with losses from PMC’s or soldiers fighting with RF from occupied territories?
- Equipment losses are hard to count. If an AA complex involves several parts and one part gets disabled, is that a loss, or a fraction of a loss? If a tank gets disabled, repaired, back into the fight, then disabled again, is that one lost tank or two?
- All recorded losses are vulnerable to multiple reporting. We have already seen numerous cases of multiple drones in the air reporting the same loss from different angles as multiple engagements.
- Losses are not always reported on the same day they occurred. It is frequent that drone losses are reported at least 24 hours after other terrestrial equipment losses. Certain losses may not be reported for days or weeks for military intelligence reasons.
Ukrainian General Staff Report - High Russian Losses
🎦 00:30-04:55⏩
Jonathan presents the Ukrainian General Staff figures for 24/01/2024 and notes that the figures are high - 950 Russian personnel losses is a significant number. He reminds viewers that it is important to be sceptical of the figures but that he has previously provided evidence to suggest that the figures do at least appear to track visual confirmation from sources such as Oryx. He acknowledges there are limitations with visually confirmed losses, which are likely to be skewed towards drone-destroyed equipment. He questions the accuracy of the figures for artillery systems losses given that there is limited evidence. Despite this, Jonathan highlights that the reported losses of 30 tanks, 42 APVs and 59 artillery systems represent a "phenomenal day of losses". Even if the figures are overstated by a third, it still represents significant losses for Russia. He cites Oryx's analysis which suggests Russia will struggle to sustain attacks at this rate in 8 months time (or sooner) given equipment losses.
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Oryx - Visually Confirmed Losses - 25/01/2024
🎦 04:55-07:12⏩
Jonathan reviews the latest visually confirmed equipment losses from Oryx, removing a decoy that Oryx has included. He notes the ratio of Russian to Ukrainian losses is at least 2:1. He comments on the losses on both sides, noting that 2 Bradleys is a significant loss for Ukraine. He highlights an IL-76 cargo plane as a significant loss for Russia in terms of the value of the aircraft, a subject he will return to later in the video. Jonathan observes that this ratio is less bad for Ukraine in comparison to the past two days, which have seen Russia lose a "phenomenal amount of kit" according to Oryx. Overall, Jonathan concludes that Russia's losses are "stupendously high" according to both Oryx and the Ukrainian General Staff.
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Russia increases frequency of Bombardments of Kherson
🎦 07:12-08:19⏩
Jonathan refers to analysis by Oryx which reports that Russia has resumed bombing Kherson with 250 and 500kg bombs. The regularity of the attacks, according to Oryx, has increased over the past week, with towns and cities being hit indiscriminately along the Dnipro River. Ukraine had some success shooting down Russian aircraft, causing Russia to reduce the frequency of attacks. Jonathan believes that Russia has stepped up attacks in the past 2-3 days and that Ukraine may need to risk using Patriot systems to counter the threat and force Russia to reconsider. This is a challenging situation for Ukraine given the nature of the aviation bombs, which cause significant damage.
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47th Mechanised Brigade target Russian Forces near Avdiivka
🎦 08:19-09:29⏩
Jonathan shares a video montage from the 47th Mechanised Brigade showing Russian forces and equipment being targeted near Avdiivka. Whilst he is unable to show the footage, he provides a link in the description. Jonathan observes that there is a large amount of destroyed Russian equipment in the area, which he attributes to the 47th Mechanised Brigade who are equipped with Bradleys. The video highlights how effective drones are and how powerful the ordnance is becoming, with some of the explosives on drones approaching what an artillery shell can do. Jonathan highlights the damage that drones are inflicting, concluding that it will be "not nice" to be a Russian soldier in that situation but acknowledges that the reverse is true for Ukrainian soldiers, particularly around Avdiivka.
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Ukraine targets Russian Military Training Ground in Ilovaysk
🎦 09:29-10:19⏩
Jonathan reports that, according to Astra, Ukraine has targeted a military training ground in Ilovaysk, a village near Donetsk. There are reports of explosions in the area and dead and wounded personnel, although neither side has officially confirmed. Jonathan notes that if the attack was successful and resulted in a significant number of casualties (e.g. 50-100), this would have an impact on the casualty figures.
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Fire at Airboat Production Workshop in Krasnoyarsk
🎦 10:19-11:08⏩
Jonathan reports that there has been a large fire at an airboat production workshop in the Krasnoyarsk region. The fire has engulfed an area covering 1700 square metres. Jonathan notes that each airboat costs $50,000 to produce, and the fire represents a significant loss. Jonathan wonders aloud if the fire was the result of something more than just an accident given the recent increase in fires.
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Fire at Military Vehicle Factory in Nizhny Novgorod
🎦 11:08-11:21⏩
Jonathan reports a fire at a factory in Nizhny Novgorod that produces military trucks and jeeps.
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Russia launches Shahed Drone Attacks Overnight
🎦 11:21-12:20⏩
Jonathan reports that Russia launched 14 Shahed drones overnight into Ukraine, of which 11 were shot down. Odessa, Kohiv and Tuyiv were targeted although there were no reports of damage to military targets or anything "high value" in Odessa, although a residential building was hit. Jonathan questions whether this was the result of a drone being destroyed by air defences or whether it was intentional.
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Ukraine targets Oil Depot in Tuapse with Drone Attack
🎦 12:20-14:16⏩
Jonathan reports that Russian Telegram channels are reporting a fire at an Oil Depot near the Rosneft oil refinery in Tuapse in the Krasnodar region. The fire is reported to be the result of a Ukrainian drone attack. The facility is 440km from the front line and on the Black Sea coast. Jonathan notes that this would require a significant drone range but is not beyond the realms of possibility given previous attacks on Moscow and St Petersburg. He shows footage of the fire, which appears to be significant. He reads a comment from a user (ps101) who notes this is the fourth oil and gas facility targeted in six days, highlighting that this is clearly part of Ukraine's current strategy. The footage, which has been geolocated, appears to show a "Beaver" drone (a large drone with a reported range of 800km).
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Tendar's Analysis: Ukraine targeting Russian Oil and Gas Export Infrastructure
🎦 14:16-16:40⏩
Jonathan reads a comment from user "Tendar" who has provided in-depth analysis of Ukraine's attacks on Russian oil and gas facilities. Tendar notes that the recent attacks on Tuapse and Ust-Luga highlight a clear strategy to target Russian oil and gas ports. Tendar explains that the Druzhba pipeline, which runs through Ukraine to Europe, is subject to sanctions. However, there are five key pipelines that service Russian seaports, two of which (Tuapse and Ust-Luga) have been successfully attacked by Ukraine. Tendar predicts that shipping companies will be reluctant to send vessels to these ports if they are viewed as military targets. Although the damage inflicted thus far has been relatively small given the limited number of drones deployed in the attacks, Tendar believes that if Ukraine can scale up the attacks, Russia will have significant problems. Tendar highlights how reliant Russia is on oil and gas exports, noting that "Russia's economic lifeline goes all the way West".
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Explosion at Berdyansk Railway Station
🎦 17:00-17:18⏩
Jonathan reports that there has been an explosion in occupied Berdyansk, which is believed to have been at or near the railway station.
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Mystery Surrounds IL-76 Crash - Were Ukrainian POWs on Board?
🎦 17:18-40:06⏩
Jonathan addresses the rumours circulating online following the crash of an IL-76 in Russia, with Russia claiming that the aircraft was carrying Ukrainian POWs. He states that, based on his analysis yesterday, there was nothing to suggest that POWs were on board. However, he notes that the situation is "weird", with official Ukrainian statements being strangely ambiguous. Whilst the open-source evidence suggests that POWs were not on board, the Ukrainian government has not issued a statement to deny the claims, which Jonathan finds strange. He believes that if the Ukrainian government had access to open-source intelligence, they would also have access to additional intelligence that would enable them to refute the claims. Jonathan examines the various claims made by Russia, Ukraine and open-source intelligence to determine what happened:
- Russia's claim: The IL-76 was transporting Ukrainian POWs as part of a prisoner exchange.
- Ukraine's response: Ukraine's official position is that it cannot confirm the identity of those on board. However, a statement issued by the General Staff of Ukraine stated that they were monitoring the airspace and "taking all measures to protect Ukraine", which suggests that Ukraine may have been tracking the aircraft, possibly believing it to be carrying munitions.
Jonathan reviews reporting from various news agencies including the BBC, The Moscow Times, and Kyiv Independent, all of which cite Ukrainian officials as being unwilling to confirm or deny the presence of POWs on the aircraft. Jonathan presents evidence that suggests that the aircraft was not carrying Ukrainian POWs:
- The aircraft was en route from Iran to Belgorod, making it highly unlikely that it would be carrying Ukrainian POWs.
- 17 names on the list of POWs released by Russia were already in Ukraine having been exchanged on 3 January.
- The aircraft was not flying towards Ukraine but away from Ukraine.
- The number of guards listed as being on board the flight (3) is considered by experts to be insufficient for the 65 POWs that were supposedly being transported, representing a violation of protocols.
- The President of Somalia issued a statement expressing his condolences to President Putin on the loss of Russian soldiers.
- No bodies can be seen at the crash site in the immediate aftermath. Some sources have claimed that this is because the bodies were found 1.5-2km away, although this is not consistent with witness reports.
- A translation of an alleged intercept between the aircraft and air traffic control appears to suggest that the aircraft was carrying rockets ("cargo rocket board").
Jonathan also considers alternative theories for what the IL-76 was doing:
- Transporting Russian soldiers to Africa: Open source intelligence suggests that the aircraft's flight path and livery were consistent with an aircraft involved in transporting personnel to Africa. This is further supported by the presence of other Russian IL-76 aircraft in Africa.
- Russian provocation: A Ukrainian government advisor, Anton Gerashchenko, believes that the aircraft may have been deliberately flown towards Ukraine as part of a false flag operation to discredit Ukraine. The purpose of the operation, according to Gerashchenko, would be to create the impression that Ukraine had deliberately targeted its own soldiers, potentially putting future prisoner exchanges at risk.
Jonathan concludes: Although the Ukrainian government has not officially confirmed the presence of POWs on board, Jonathan believes it is unlikely given the available evidence, concluding that Russia is lying. He believes that the lack of an official denial from Ukraine suggests that there may be more to the story but that they are unable to say anything further. He finds it strange that Russia has not been more forthcoming with evidence to support their claims, given their insistence that Ukraine shot down the aircraft.
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General Valery Gerasimov - Missing
🎦 40:06-40:21⏩
Jonathan finishes the video by sharing an image of a "missing person" poster featuring General Valery Gerasimov, Chief of Staff of the Russian Armed Forces. The poster states that Gerasimov has been missing since 29 December 2023. He was last seen in Crimea, which is where Ukraine targeted Russian S400 missile systems recently.
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Wrap up
🎦 40:21-40:27⏩
Jonathan thanks viewers for watching and signs off.
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